Weekday numbers July 10-13

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Meh, this thread was a lot more fun when people thought it would be a good idea to LEEEROOYY JENKINS GOTG3 vs. Mario.

 
 

 

[stripe]

1 hour ago, lab276 said:

I want every movie to be good and do well. I take no pleasure in bombs.

 

So do I
I don't understand what's so funny about wanting something good to bomb

[JimmyB]

33 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Eh... I'd add GotGV3 and AtSV in there too. Both did extremely well. Heck, if TLM crawls over 300M+ DOM, probably deserves an honorable mention as well. People scoffed at that 300M DOM then Faxt X, Transformers, Flash and Indy happened. Changed hindsight a bit.

GOTG3 making 30 million < GOTG2. TLM making 50 million < Aladdin. Spider-verse at the moment seems like the only true win of the summer. 

 

A business with increase expenses, increase ticket prices yet revenue isn't matching 2017 and 2019 seems like a failing business model.  I'm probably wrong and I hope I'm wrong.

[Issac Newton]

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE-DEAD RECKONING PART ONE (2023)

[ThomasNicole]

Well at least we delayed the apparently inevitable discourse about MI7 flopping for a few hours 

 

Very disappointed with it, it can still rebound in time for the weekend because is a long ass movie blah blah blah, but very bad WED and it’s such a great movie is sad to see

 

Maybe Barbenheimmer is taking everyone’s thunder afterall 

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, JimmyB said:

GOTG3 making 30 million < GOTG2. TLM making 50 million < Aladdin. Spider-verse at the moment seems like the only true win of the summer. 

 

A business with increase expenses, increase ticket prices yet revenue isn't matching 2017 and 2019 seems like a failing business model.  I'm probably wrong and I hope I'm wrong.

 

You forgot to add another zero. I get that you are talking about dom only but with OS in the mix - and OS is crucial for mega-budget movies - it's 500M less than Aladdin. 

 

Spiderverse is indeed undisputed success on all levels.   As a sequel (huge increase), relative to budget (profitable af), dom/OS/WW (all went up).

[pepsa]

32 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

How is it making money on that budget? It isn't. It needed OW and WOM. It only got WOM on a low OW and it isn't exactly Avatar/Titanic run with 0.7% drops every week either. There's a lot of exaggeration going on about this run to fit the narrative Pixar fans want to push. 

It does have a 6x + multie over a 5-day OW in SK after 4 weekends, it has a 7.2x multi over it's 4-day opening weekend in Australia after 4 weekends. A 5x multi over 4-day OW in Argentina after 4 weeks. You don't get those with drops, you need increases ^^

 

But I do agree, OW have been way to low, good multies are partialy because it's correcting for very low openings in markets like Brazil (4.6x multi 4-day OW after 3 weeks), Australia, NZ, etc. This movie will probably end around $430-460m WW no enough to make a profit in theaters but you can't deny that having a 5 - 6x average OW (mind you not just 3 days like in the US) multi in OS markets is quite impressive none the less.

 

Compared to all the runs I have followed this year (WW), it's by far the most fun one, seeing a movie increase, hold flat, regain screens, fend off competition is more interesting than see a decent opening and than 50% drop for the next few weeks. Obviously a run like Mario's was also very fun, having amazing OW and good/very good holds and its runs in Japan, Mexico. Ofc Mario's boxoffice run in the grand sceme of things is way more impressive, same goes for GOTG3 and Spidey. But as a boxoffice lover it's so fun to ask yourself the question 'where will this movie end up' and not instandly knowing rougly where it will end up going. Cause ask me after OW WW where GOTG3 and Spidey end up and you could easily guess with in 10-15% no problem. Movies where it's more intricate do make it more fun.

Edited July 13, 2023 by pepsa

[M37]

42 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

A business with increase expenses, increase ticket prices yet revenue isn't matching 2017 and 2019 seems like a failing business model.  I'm probably wrong and I hope I'm wrong.

Have to keep in mind that with theatrical viewing down, there’s more revenue to be made with home viewing via PVOD and streaming. And also that a lot of this summer’s big budget numbers include COVID related delays & added costs that won’t repeat

 

But overall, studios do need to recognize and adapt to new market, where BO$ are lower and budgets have to be kept in line with grossing potential 

Edited July 13, 2023 by M37

[Jonwo]

Just now, M37 said:

Have to keep in that with theatrical viewing down, there’s more revenue to be made with home viewing via PVOD and streaming. And also that a lot of this summer’s big budget numbers include a COVID related delays & added costs that won’t repeat

 

But overall, studios do need to recognize and adapt to new market, where BO$ are lower and budgets have to be kept in line with grossing potential 

I doubt that studios will slash budgets so much we'll have no expensive movies ever again. $200m movies will continue to be made,

[ringedmortality]

I agree with whoever said the marketing campaign for this was weird. That first teaser got a lot of traction online but the real trailers never got that same level of attention.

 

That teaser should have released during the Super Bowl this year instead.

 

Barbie and Oppenheimer would have overshadowed it in terms of hype anyway but at least there would be more hype for it 

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

I agree with whoever said the marketing campaign for this was weird. That first teaser got a lot of traction online but the real trailers never got that same level of attention.

 

That teaser should have released during the Super Bowl this year instead.

 

Barbie and Oppenheimer would have overshadowed it in terms of hype anyway but at least there would be more hype for it 

And the teaser was the best one as well, which didn’t help 

 

I quite get it, the movie isn’t really a showcase gigantic setpieces like Fallout so there’s only so much you can show at trailers 

 

 

[TomThomas]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

I'm not. You trashed Barbie as if you saw it which you didn't so I'm hitting the ball back.

And I'm not going to see it, thanks.

[wildphantom]

we could do with some OS numbers for DR

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Barbie is going to be the next Endgame/No Way Home and just suck the air out of everything. I can even see Elemental missing $150M domestically because of it.

 

And aside from a couple of Endgames per year, exhibition will continue to be weak. That's the new harsh reality this summer has demonstrated. Audiences are ruthless now. If it isn't considered a Dark Knight-level masterpiece by at least the masses, then they'll just catch it on Netflix and the like. Inflation has raised the stakes.

[M37]

11 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I doubt that studios will slash budgets so much we'll have no expensive movies ever again. $200m movies will continue to be made,

That wasn’t what I said fwiw, but it makes it more difficult to justify like $250M (or $200M for a Pixar film), maybe trim back from $200 to like $170/$180M. 

 

Or look at ways to change cost and revenue structures, by sharing risk rather than fronting it all, or maybe even pressing theatres for a bigger cut of BO$ (which IMO is both justified but also would hasten some additional closures)

 

I own no stock in any studio, so I only care about budgets in so far as it shapes the market , what films get made and what theatres are open to show them 

[Jonwo]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

That wasn’t what I said fwiw, but it makes it more difficult to justify like $250M (or $200M for a Pixar film), maybe trim back from $200 to like $170/$180M. 

 

Or look at ways to change cost and revenue structures, by sharing risk rather than fronting it all, or maybe even pressing theatres for a bigger cut of BO$ (which IMO is both justified but also would hasten some additional closures)

 

I own no stock in any studio, so I only care about budgets in so far as it shapes the market , what films get made and what theatres are open to show them 

Things like Avatar, you're not going to see the budgets slashed just because Cameron has carte blanche on budgets. 

 

 

[ZattMurdock]

15 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Barbie is going to be the next Endgame/No Way Home and just suck the air out of everything. I can even see Elemental missing $150M domestically because of it.

 

And aside from a couple of Endgames per year, exhibition will continue to be weak. That's the new harsh reality this summer has demonstrated. Audiences are ruthless now. If it isn't considered a Dark Knight-level masterpiece by at least the masses, then they'll just catch it on Netflix and the like. Inflation has raised the stakes.

I don’t like this kinda of pressure on Barbie, and I’m not even interested on the film to the point at going out of my way to see it at a movie theater.

 

The new gang here on BOT needs to learn  a few things, and I’m rewriting more gently what I was replying to another post, so here it goes:

 

The first thing, which isn’t related to your post but another one is that following box office isn’t a pissing context. It’s not "pure math", and not only because of the infamous "Hollywood accounting". Thinking it’s absurd that Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 made measly $30m less than Vol. 2 doesn’t tell the full picture, because not even the most seasoned of us, not even some that work in Hollywood for a living have the scope to understand how much a film by itself is profitable and by how much. What we do know for sure is that both Vol. 2 and Vol. 3 are obviously profitable, and I’d argue that just like it’s stupid to see Avatar 2 as underwhelming for not topping Avatar, the same can be applied to Guardians.

 

The second thing and that does apply to your post in particular is, don’t set your expectations to the moon and do not expect disappointment. I think it’s obvious that Barbie is going to be a box office success story, but I’m throughly not sure if it’s touching Vol. 3 or ATSV in the long run, let alone Super Mario Bros, Top Gun Maverick and crazy scenarios like Avengers: Endgame and Spider-Man: No Way Home. There is a reason why such runs are so much talked about and celebrated, because they aren’t easy to come by and despite the very strong tracking, nothing indicates that Barbie is the next "Avengers Omega Level Threat" when it comes to the box office.
 

I feel like setting up anticipations accordingly and listening more to those that have been following box office for an even longer period of time than I was an advice that served me well 11 years ago, and one I would pass along too. 

[Grebacio]

5 hours ago, IronJimbo &amp; Sheldon&#x27;s Son said:

Actually I just realised John Wick 4 also did it fairly recently so it is possible in this climate, just very rare.

Creed III also did it.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Grebacio said:

Creed III also did it.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, too. Which is kinda beyond the point. I feel like the discussion about box office has slowly moved on from dailies and how it compares to films of the past to some weird future telling about how much profitable a film is. It’s hard for a film from Paramount, it’s incredibly harder for Disney and anything that involves characters that are you, know, owned by them:

 

Yes, Across the Spider-Verse is a brilliant film that has gave Sony a lot of money, same for Super Mario Bros to Universal. But who is the big winner here, is it Sony, that made the film, or is it Disney, that owns Spider-Man and every single character in those two films? Same for Super Mario Bros, who is the true winner here, Universal via Illumination, or Nintendo that owns the Mario brothers and world?

 

Is Disney in the business of purely making profit of their films, with every sequel being bigger than its predecessor, or are they in the business of strengthening their brand and making an insane amount of money out of box office and everything else?

[John Marston]

John Wick 4 sold less tickets than 3. I blame losing all PLFs immediately to D&D and running into the Mario juggernaut. The action franchises are not being treated well release date wise