C’MON BARBIE LET'S GO PARTY...AT LOS ALAMOS | BARBENHEIMER WEEKEND THREAD | We’re Thriving in our Plastic Fantastic Era | Mother Mothered with 162M | Daddy Exploded with 82.4M

[Water Bottle]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

In the end, we are indeed looking at the least attended summer #1 by a long shot if Barbie doesn’t get the legs well past 450 (obviously not counting you know what years). 

 

A 2020 summer movie got to $450 million?

[M37]

7 minutes ago, cannastop said:

OK but those same capacity limits will limit it from grossing more.

Sure, but people now know and will adapt, going to weekday or early/late weekend shows. The supply is there, just not allocated on FSS like normal. Or just skip PLF and see standard 

 

Easy sub-50% drop next weekend, probably sub-40%, and let me see weekday numbers first, but not ruling out sub-30%

[MovieMan89]

If Barbie ends around 400 and isn’t leggy, overall I’d say this summer did end up neck and neck with 2014 as the most disappointing. I’d actually say Opp likely at least pushing 300 would be what would give it the edge over 2014. 

[solaris]

19 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Is Oppenheimer hitting 300 DOM you think?

I give it an 80% chance. Dunkirk legs will get it to 300m on the nose.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Dunkirk got 3.8x with worse reception from audiences 

 

Expecting just 3x for Oppenheimer with way better reception, lack of competition for the next weeks and the obvious spillover effect due to capacity issues seems absurd to me 

 

300M is likely 

It’s too early to know. The only thing that seems pretty much locked is $200M and that’s great news for Universal. The movie could have been a flop that struggled to make $100M domestic. This subject in 1989 made less than $4 million total box office, so there was pretty big risk on the new project. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Main thing I can't forget from Oppenheimer is that score blaring off the walls even when they're sipping wine. I don't even remember what the second to last shot was... I remember Downey and Affleck being great in it. I remember being happy to see Casey Affleck in something as I hadn't seen him anything in a minute.

[kayumanggi]

1 hour ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

 

Said it before here, and I'll say it again. Dead Reckoning Part 2 is absolutely moving to summer 2025.

 

Not only did they not complete filming but according to McQuarrie, they still hadn't figured out how exactly it was going to end. Take into account both SAG and WGA Strikes and vacating it's June '24 slot is inevitable. Especially if things aren't resolved till October.

 

Be smart and slot it at July 25. That's two weeks after Superman: Legacy (which I don't foresee getting delayed as it's script is done and they're still moving forward for a late January start - which could get pushed to March/April, worst case scenario) and allows them to get all those premium-format screens locked down.

 

A Marvel movie is also slated for July 25.

[Noctis]

Barbie won't pass Mario - that's almost an impossibility. She'll hit $450m quite comfortably, IMO. With $500m, we'll see how the next week plays out. But topping $574m? That's hugely unrealistic.

 

 

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I remember being happy to see Casey Affleck in something as I hadn't seen him anything in a minute.

 

Hopefully this marks the beginning of his comeback. Best Lead Actor winner of the 21st century.

[The Dark Alfred]

I think OP can hit 300m. IMAX will drive its legs all August and even if it let's say sits at 280-285m come January, it will certainly get an award season boost. Nolan will fight for it to be in theatres as long as possible.

[cannastop]

Just now, The Dark Alfred said:

I think OP can hit 300m. IMAX will drive its legs all August and even if it let's say sits at 280-285m come January, it will certainly get an award season boost. Nolan will fight for it to be in theatres as long as possible.

Re releases don't do THAT well.

[The Dark Alfred]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Hopefully this marks the beginning of his comeback. Best Lead Actor winner of the 21st century.

 I like Casey as well, but come on, nobody touches DDL.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, The Dark Alfred said:

I think OP can hit 300m. IMAX will drive its legs all August and even if it let's say sits at 280-285m come January, it will certainly get an award season boost. Nolan will fight for it to be in theatres as long as possible.

It only has IMAX for a 3-week run until August 11th in many places. Only the IMAX screens with really strong demand for Oppie have announced plans for shows beyond August 11th. 

[CoolioD1]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

Re releases don't do THAT well.

Everything Everywhere made like an extra 7mil off an awards season re-release but that's very rare and Oppenheimer would probably similarly have to sweep the Oscars to even do that much which i don't expect.

 

But y'know what it doesn't matter I think it's gonna hit 300 earlier than that it's gonna have great legs

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Hopefully this marks the beginning of his comeback. Best Lead Actor winner of the 21st century.

Not sure about that but he is a fine actor and a welcome addition to any movie also refreshing to not see him as forgettable as he was in Interstellar.

[Hildagarde25]

1 hour ago, Chaz said:

I cannot fathom a 3-hour WWII drama grossing over $80 million in its opening weekend. What the fuuuuck. Over/under Inception domestically?

 

I would argue it's not a WWII movie, but a movie where parts of it are set during WWII. This distinction, I think, makes it potentially more attractive to a wider range of people. I've said before that I thought there was untapped or underestimated opportunity in the gen z/millenial market, and that I wanted more social media marketing. Luckily, Barbieheimmer came to the rescue.

 

I think 300 DOM is possible, but I want to see next week and weekend's numbers. Oppenheimer is closer to a Schindler's List/Malcolm X/Lincoln type film than a "war movie." Anecdotal, but a number of my friends are interested in seeing Oppneheimer when they originally only wanted to see Barbie, but no amount of memes would make them watch Dunkirk, for example (except for the friends who already like war movies). The combination of Barbieheimer, Nolan (or the "Batman" director), the spectacle, and it's a biography will bring in people who wouldn't normally see a "WWII movie." You also have the science and history lovers and the political thriller people who've been underserved with big screen options. I think it's just the right mixt of elements combined with the luck of timing this summer.  

 

Plus, Oppie's life is interesting. The movie spans from the 1920s to the 1950s, and it touches on a lot of different things. We're very lucky to have it and Barbie together.  

[Maggie]

Casey mumble Aflleck is the best actor? He was the worst part of Oppenheimer. You really can't understand what he says. His diction is so bad

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Barbie won't pass Mario - that's almost an impossibility. She'll hit $450m quite comfortably, IMO. With $500m, we'll see how the next week plays out. But topping $574m? That's hugely unrealistic.

 

 

Yeah, the OW was far too frontloaded for those legs. The only way it happens is if for some reason the male audience wasn’t that interested on OW, but then WOM catches wildfire with them and they really show up in coming weeks. 

[TMP]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Main thing I can't forget from Oppenheimer is that score blaring off the walls even when they're sipping wine. I don't even remember what the second to last shot was... I remember Downey and Affleck being great in it. I remember being happy to see Casey Affleck in something as I hadn't seen him anything in a minute.

It's a shame Casey Affleck is such a fucking awful person irl because Manchester By The Sea is still the most worthy Best Actor win for the whole 2010's, and he's great here too (thought both him and Damon were kinda bad in Interstellar but substantially better here)

[Arlborn]

9 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Aquaman and wonder woman were never low profile. The characters announced for the upcoming dc slate except for batman and superman ARE. You completely missed my point.

You were talking strictly about the upcoming already announced projects, so I did indeed miss your point and I apologize for that!

 

I also think it’s a very risky slate, but I don’t think it’s impossible for any of them to break out provide the marketing and the quality are there. We’ll see though, he could definitely have played it safer.