The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

Inceptionzq · October 5, 2023

On 10/4/2023 at 3:27 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2124 2657 79.94%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 2060 2741 75.16%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS

10779 45 22056 48.87% 13 146

1.975 Thor L&T T-9 57.27M

1.307 Doctor Strange MoM T-9 47.05M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2129

2657

80.13%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2065

2741

75.34%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
10820	41	22056	49.06%	13	146

1.917	Thor L&T T-8	55.61M
1.267	Doctor Strange MoM T-8	45.61M

Inceptionzq · October 5, 2023

On 10/4/2023 at 3:29 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-9 Friday 109 Showings 10831 +88 16930 ATP: 22.35

0.828 Thor L&T Thurs T-9 24.00M

Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-9 35.79M

0.610 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-9 21.97M

Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-9 32.65M

T-10 Saturday 199 Showings 14560 +128 29167 ATP: 22.07

1.316 Thor L&T Fri T-10 53.37M

Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-10 80.03M

0.911 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-10 49.84M

Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-10 75.08M

T-11 Sunday 173 Showings 11777 +280 25261 ATP: 21.94

1.128 Thor L&T Sat T-11 47.51M

Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-11 72.79M

0.706 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-11 40.82M

Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-11 63.10M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-8 Friday

110 Showings

10932

+101

17055

ATP:

22.34

0.809	Thor L&T Thurs T-8	23.45M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-8	34.95M
0.596	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-8	21.47M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-8	31.88M

T-9 Saturday

200 Showings

14687

+127

29290

ATP:

22.07

1.279	Thor L&T Fri T-9	51.86M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-9	77.75M
0.883	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-9	48.29M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-9	72.75M

T-10 Sunday

174 Showings

11947

+170

25382

ATP:

21.93

1.099	Thor L&T Sat T-10	46.30M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-10	70.91M
0.687	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-10	39.72M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-10	61.38M

Inceptionzq · October 5, 2023

On 10/4/2023 at 3:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-9 Friday 131 Showings 10156 +124 20232

T-10 Saturday 237 Showings 7110 +142 37315

T-11 Sunday 229 Showings 4344 +54 35908

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-8 Friday

131 Showings

10323

+167

20246

T-9 Saturday

237 Showings

7272

+162

37324

T-10 Sunday

229 Showings

4493

+149

36032

Inceptionzq · October 5, 2023

On 10/4/2023 at 3:40 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 117 310 37.74%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 60 269 22.30%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS

697
143 8043 8.67% 13 48

1.037 The Flash Day 4 10.06M

1.660 Black Adam Day 4 12.62M

Some showings weren't working yesterday, and I forgot to add a theater that wasn't working the first day back in, so the increase wasn't actually 143 over the past 24 hours. Still doing very well though.

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

127

1104

11.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

80

279

28.67%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
776	79	9403	8.25%	13	54

No more Day X comps, gonna let them catch up before putting in T-X comps

Inceptionzq · October 5, 2023

On 10/4/2023 at 3:42 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-22 Thursday 91 Showings 2447 +309 11463 ATP: 16.56

1.373 The Flash Day 4 13.32M

2.459 Black Adam Day 4 18.69M

T-23 Friday 106 Showings 1774 +319 13099 ATP: 15.24

1.760 The Flash Day 4 26.05M

2.410 Black Adam Day 4 46.01M

T-24 Saturday 97 Showings 987 +190 11083 ATP: 14.78

1.108 The Flash Day 4 17.39M

1.243 Black Adam Day 4 29.47M

T-25 Sunday 88 Showings 338 +116 10385 ATP: 13.56

0.931 The Flash Day 4 14.43M

1.470 Black Adam Day 4 24.40M

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-21 Thursday

91 Showings

2679

+232

11463

ATP:

16.39

T-22 Friday

106 Showings

2022

+248

13099

ATP:

15.09

T-23 Saturday

97 Showings

1170

+183

11078

ATP:

14.79

T-24 Sunday

88 Showings

414

+76

10380

ATP:

13.25

Inceptionzq · October 5, 2023

On 10/4/2023 at 3:44 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-22 Thursday 85 Showings 719 +154 11046

0.927 The Flash Day 4 8.99M

T-23 Friday 123 Showings 1332 +334 15444

3.581 The Flash Day 4 52.99M

T-24 Saturday 121 Showings 296 +71 14717

1.104 The Flash Day 4 17.34M

T-25 Sunday 114 Showings 104 +9 13992

1.051 The Flash Day 4 16.28M

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-21 Thursday

85 Showings

828

+109

11046

T-22 Friday

123 Showings

1662

+330

15446

T-23 Saturday

121 Showings

356

+60

14893

T-24 Sunday

114 Showings

122

+18

13992

Inceptionzq · October 5, 2023

On 10/4/2023 at 3:45 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 116 1203 9.64%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 46 1258 3.66%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS

605 45 10534 5.74% 12 51

0.0686 Taylor Swift Day 3

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

122

1203

10.14%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

46

1258

3.66%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
617	12	10534	5.86%	12	51

0.0675

Taylor Swift Day 4

Last day of Taylor Day X comps. Might stop tracking this until after FNAF

Inceptionzq · October 5, 2023

On 10/4/2023 at 3:46 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-57 Thursday 57 Showings 2153 +127 8770 ATP: 24.44

0.318 Taylor Swift Friday Day 3

T-58 Friday 97 Showings 2629 +220 15557 ATP: 24.87

0.363 Taylor Swift Saturday Day 3

T-59 Saturday 101 Showings 2441 +218 16214 ATP: 24.64

0.474 Taylor Swift Sunday Day 3

T-60 Sunday 85 Showings 1471 +166 13169 ATP: 23.89

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-56 Thursday

57 Showings

2239

+86

8770

ATP:

24.42

0.290

Taylor Swift Friday Day 4

T-57 Friday

97 Showings

2771

+142

15557

ATP:

24.85

0.313

Taylor Swift Saturday Day 4

T-58 Saturday

101 Showings

2626

+185

16214

ATP:

24.60

0.411

Taylor Swift Sunday Day 4

T-59 Sunday

85 Showings

1529

+58

13169

ATP:

23.91

Inceptionzq · October 5, 2023

On 10/4/2023 at 3:48 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-57 Thursday 60 Showings 471 +77 10325

0.075 Taylor Swift Friday Day 3

T-58 Friday 141 Showings 420 +90 25279

0.131 Taylor Swift Saturday Day 3

T-59 Saturday 142 Showings 288 +49 24341

0.157 Taylor Swift Sunday Day 3

T-60 Sunday 134 Showings 67 +16 24184

Beyonce Renaissance Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-56 Thursday

60 Showings

517

+46

10327

0.076

Taylor Swift Friday Day 4

T-57 Friday

141 Showings

455

+35

25279

0.117

Taylor Swift Saturday Day 4

T-58 Saturday

142 Showings

349

+61

25149

0.165

Taylor Swift Sunday Day 4

T-59 Sunday

134 Showings

85

+18

24184

Krissykins · October 5, 2023

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

Exorcist: The Beginning adjusts to just over $70M total with nearly 20 years of inflation. That's probably where this is headed in total depending on where it lands this weekend, unless it pulls a Halloween Kills/Ends and dies instantly starting Monday (which is also not impossible).

Think it’ll grow a lot more than that one internationally ($36m). But we’ll see.

vale9001 · October 5, 2023

2 hours ago, datpepper said:

ERC is a little mistaken there. It's $100m in global pre-sales, not domestic like he seems to be implying.

It's also not for entirely opening weekend, it's for all pre-sales across the whole run.

I think around 75M Sales for domestic first weekend are already sold btw. International only has one week of pre sales so like 80-100 split makes sense, with 75 in the first weekend.

Edited October 5, 2023 by vale9001

TheFlatLannister · October 5, 2023

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

FRIDAY

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

T-9

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

226

11667

43831

26.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

50

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

20

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews:

(0.869x) of Barbie ~$18.34M FRIDAY for TET

(1.044x) of ATSV~$18.12M FRIDAY for TET

(1.742x) of TLM~$17.94M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $18.13M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $25.38M

T-9 comps

(1.876x) of GOTG3~$32.84M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $45.98M

Volume is excellent, but pace...

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

FRIDAY

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	11740	43831	26.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

73

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

20

COMPS

T-0

T-8 comps

(1.838x) of GOTG3~$32.16M FRIDAY for TET

(2.877x) of ATSV ~$49.91M FRIDAY for TET

(3.799x) of TLM~$39.13M FRIDAY for TET

COMPS AVG: $40.4M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $56.56M

Switching to T-X

*Keep in mind these new T-x comps will fall really fast*

TheFlatLannister · October 5, 2023

On 10/4/2023 at 6:40 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Thursday Previews

T-16

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

145

469

24356

1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-16

(0.359x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.77M THUR Previews

(1.083x) of Blue Beetle ~$3.57M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Thursday Previews

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	484	24356	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-15

(0.358x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.76M THUR Previews

(0.947x) of Blue Beetle ~$3.13M THUR Previews

COMPS AVG: $3.45M

TheFlatLannister · October 5, 2023

On 10/4/2023 at 6:37 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

Thursday Previews

T-23

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

159

1632

29461

5.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

187

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-23

(1.885x) of Mi7 ~$13.19M THUR Previews

(1.024x) of Flash~$9.94M THUR Previews

(1.461x) of RoTB ~$12.86M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $12.00M

Pace is so nuts this far out. I mean its easily beating Barbie's T-23 pace lol

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

Thursday Previews

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
159	1856	29461	6.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

224

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-22

(1.072x) of Flash~$10.40M THUR Previews

(0.729x) of ATSV ~$12.66M THUR Previews

(1.423x) of Fast X~$10.67M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $11.24M

*Just for fun*

(1.009x) of Barbie ~$21.29M Astonished

Porthos · October 5, 2023

38 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

*Just for fun*

(1.009x) of Barbie ~$21.29M

Quick, someone post this over at reddit!

abracadabra1998 · October 5, 2023

9 hours ago, M37 said:

Comps for Exorcist vs Nun II from the 3 active tracks:

(1.381x) of Nun II~$4.28M THUR Previews

1.29x The Nun II: $3.98 Million

The Nun II 1.082x = $3.35m

Even if those comps cannot keep pace with Nun's final sales day, there's a fair amount of room to fall back and still keep $3M+ in play

Also:

So after playing catch-up through the shorter sales period for Nun II, for your sample, growth rate has mostly aligned .... though fell way behind in OK sample. The variability in smaller numbers means its difficult to really gauge, and generally I prefer to look at the largest volume sample, usually MTC1, but in this case its Orlando ... where Exorcist only needs to sell 58 more tickets to match Nun II's T-0 total. And El Sid's update above shows the potential for a $10M+ true Friday, ahead of Nun II's $9.9M

Oh, and definitely some error bars on this data, but this too:

Reveal hidden contents

From Quorum

Interest

Awareness

All in all, I still see a very reasonable path to $3M/$30M+, though my only hesitation is that the reviews are trash, which may be enough to outweigh the goodwill of the Blumhouse brand and limit walk-ups both for Thursday and the weekend as WOM spreads. I think there's some gun-shyness with how Saw X finished last week, and while that is certainly a possibility, the long vs short sales period is IMO making that comp seem more likely than it is in reality

These are all super fair! In hindsight I should have probably given less importance to my original comps (Talk to Me, Demeter) and more to the horror IP ones, so I should have probably upped my prediction a bit. In truth, I should really stop throwing predictions out there since I'm not really able to get T-0 numbers like I used to, and I really just guess at how walk-ups will be based on the week's growth rates (and as you eloquently put it, for this release especially, my comps are inadequate). I do it mostly just for fun (and bragging rights for the once in a blue moon moment that I'm right)

In my opinion though, your last point hits on this, even with over 3+ M previews I am unsure if this will hit 30 Million. If WOM is as toxic as the critics are making it seem, this will have some tough going. Plus, add Saw X having a slightly over 9x IM and previews for this starting an hour earlier, makes me weary of predicting a 10+ multiplier. Though the Nun II just had that and previews for that started at 4, sooooo who knows.

(and also sorry if I put you and Shawn at odds, was just poking a little fun hehe)

Edited October 5, 2023 by abracadabra1998

abracadabra1998 · October 5, 2023

On 10/1/2023 at 6:29 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Killers of the Flower Moon (T-18):

Day: T-18 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold

Totals: 16 theaters 56 38 298 9399 3.17

Comp:

0.27x Oppenheimer: $2.88 Million

Keeping pace with Oppy for now. Probs will add Indiana Jones comp next update.

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-25):

Day: T-25 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold

Totals: 12 theaters 36 198 198 4462 4.44

Comps:

2.75x The Exorcist: Believer: ??

I think FlatLannister is exactly right in using the b-word, this might just break out. Yes, it'll have the initial fan rush, but they haven't started marketing this at all either. This one's looking good.

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Killers of the Flower Moon (T-14):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	60	39	337	9853	3.42

Comps:

0.25x Oppenheimer: $2.68 Million

0.58x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $4.03 Million

0.42x Indiana Jones 5: $3 Million

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	39	306	504	4827	10.44

I won't add comps to this until closer to release, don't have any that make a lot of sense and I'd rather see where this stabilizes a bit first. Also, I track 20 theaters, so 7 of them not having showtimes for this yet is odd. I'm sure they'll add some. Awesome growth the last four days.

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-56):

Day: T-56	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	41	785	785	7320	10.72

Comp:

0.0769x TET on day 4 (T-39): ???

TheFlatLannister · October 6, 2023

25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Quick, someone post this over at reddit!

There's absolutely no way it keeps up pace with Barbie...Right???

sweating key and peele GIF

M37 · October 6, 2023

12 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

There's absolutely no way it keeps up pace with Barbie...Right???

I didn’t think Barbie could keep up the pace Barbie was setting, so …

Edited October 6, 2023 by M37
fixed gibberish

XXRDJisDoctorDoom · October 6, 2023

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

(and also sorry if I put you and Shawn at odds, was just poking a little fun hehe)

Don't apologize, just grab some popcorn and....

let them fight fighting GIF

0.828	Thor L&T Thurs T-9	24.00M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-9	35.79M
0.610	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-9	21.97M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-9	32.65M

1.316	Thor L&T Fri T-10	53.37M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-10	80.03M
0.911	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-10	49.84M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-10	75.08M

1.128	Thor L&T Sat T-11	47.51M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-11	72.79M
0.706	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-11	40.82M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-11	63.10M

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	36	198	198	4462	4.44

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