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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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THIS POST IS A WORK IN PROGRESS! SOME OF JULY 2023'S POSTS WILL BE MOVED INTO THIS THREAD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS/WEEKS.

 

WE WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE ARCHIVED LINKS PUT TOGETHER BY OTHER MODS AND TRACKERS. PLEASE BE PATIENT WITH US (me especially because I've been promising @Eric we'd (I'd) get to this sooner than we (I) did and that is my fault). :)

 

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking and Pre-Sale Thread

 

As mentioned earlier this summer, we're starting up a new ticket counting and tracking thread to help ease the stress on the forum database as large topics that are frequently accessed tend to create minor (sometimes bigger) loading issues.

 

We're not starting from scratch, per se, but keeping enough recent content at the start of this thread to see how the forum SEO is impacted overall.

 

We'll also update this post with any relevant info the BOT Think Tank feels should be included as a resource.

 

Please limit conversations in this topic to sharing data points and speculating only on those. If you want to talk about movies in general or share your predictions without any of your data points, please do so in the appropriate movie or weekend/weekday box office topics through the forum.

 

For archival purposes, you can find the previous threads here:

 

And here:

 

(I think we have some that are even older, but those are the most readily available links I have at the moment. If Mods have the others, feel free to link them in this post -- and please PM me if you do make any edits!)

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https://deadline.com/2023/06/jim-caviezel-box-office-sound-of-freedom-angel-studios-1235428099/

 

Quote

EXCLUSIVE: We all know post-pandemic that tentpoles work at the box office, but it’s been hit and miss for everything else, especially indies movies. From out of nowhere, Angel Studios Sound of Freedom movie about Tim Ballard, a former Homeland Security agent who left the department after he was frustrated with the U.S. rescue efforts with trafficked children in third world countries, is racking up $7.2M in ticket presales before its July 4th opening at 2,626 theaters, sources tell Deadline.

 

lmao what

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1 minute ago, Eric Jones said:

 

Not insanely surprising. It'll drop super hard but initial demand for these "red blooded American right wing" movies is fairly strong. Same reason those Chosen episodes do so well.

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Quorum Updates

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem T-34: 44.32% Awareness

Gran Turismo T-43: 21.88% Awareness

White Bird: A Wonder Story T-57: 11.91% Awareness

The Nun 2 T-71: 28.75% Awareness

Dune Part Two T-127: 33.67% Awareness

The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-141: 26.25% Awareness

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny T-1: 61.38% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 93% chance of 50M, 80% chance of 60M, 67% chance of 70M, 47% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 60M, 60% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 100M

 

Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken T-1: 30.45% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Joy Ride T-8: 30.29% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

 

The Equalizer 3 T-64: 37.23% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 94% chance of 10M, 69% chance of 20M, 44% chance of 30M

Sequel Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

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49 minutes ago, XXR Doom N' Gloom said:

 

Not insanely surprising. It'll drop super hard but initial demand for these "red blooded American right wing" movies is fairly strong. Same reason those Chosen episodes do so well.

 

I have been following Sound of Freedom as the summer's Chosen...it picked a great name for its release date, so that's probably increasing curiosity.  It also helps that it stars Jim Caviezel, who is like the Tom Cruise of these movies.

 

I'd say its 6 day open (with July 4th its opening date) could get up to possibly even $30M...

 

PS - They also got Mira Sorvino for a headlining role, upping its "this is really not a sh&t quality movie" factor...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

It’s pretty clear this “Maverick boost” isn’t an actual thing. If it was, early tracking would have picked up on it 

 

also you could say the US tracking it showing a bump if Dead Reckoning plays like Rogue Nation and Fallout, that's 8m x 10IMx3.5legs/.3(its 30/70 Dom/Intl split)= 933m

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41 minutes ago, XXR Doom N' Gloom said:

 

Not insanely surprising. It'll drop super hard but initial demand for these "red blooded American right wing" movies is fairly strong. Same reason those Chosen episodes do so well.

why is a movie about saving kids who have been trafficked right wing?

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43 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don’t expect MI to be a big breakout anymore, but I also don’t expect it will do any worse than Fallout either. Target audience isn’t going to lead to big tracking numbers, and unlike Indy, no reason for the target audience to not care about it. 

I'm sorry but I heard this for The Flash and Indy. Both were supposedly going to do much better than the tracking team was anticipating. At some point we have to accept pre-sale tracking is the most accurate metric we have for OW 

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2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I'm sorry but I heard this for The Flash and Indy. Both were supposedly going to do much better than the tracking team was anticipating. At some point we have to accept pre-sale tracking is the most accurate metric we have for OW 

Anyone who said tracking for Flash didn’t matter was delusional. It’s a CBM of course it matters. Tracking for Indy wouldn’t have mattered much either IF it didn’t get such poor reviews and if people still really cared about this franchise. MI is far more relevant to its target demo today than Indy is. 

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50 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

 

also you could say the US tracking it showing a bump if Dead Reckoning plays like Rogue Nation and Fallout, that's 8m x 10IMx3.5legs/.3(its 30/70 Dom/Intl split)= 933m

China isn't going to put up $180M+ 

 

Fast 8 made $392M in China back in 2017...Fast X made $138M which is a 64% decrease

 

A similar decrease gets Mi7 to ~$65M 

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1 hour ago, rebelscum86 said:

why is a movie about saving kids who have been trafficked right wing?

It wouldn't be if it were as simple as that. But that's the demographic the film is targeting, regardless of its subject. Probably because the film glorifies a man/organization that has come under a lot of scrutiny for being ineffective (or downright corrupt) enough to essentially work against its own mission.

 

In any event, there's probably a reason that the film's lead did promotion for the film at a conspiracy theory conference. Regardless of whether the film itself could be considered "right wing," it's made by people who exist in those circles and are happy to mention the scourge of leftism in the same breath as disavowing trafficking.

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32 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

China isn't going to put up $180M+ 

 

Fast 8 made $392M in China back in 2017...Fast X made $138M which is a 64% decrease

 

A similar decrease gets Mi7 to ~$65M 

 

Tbf, I think F9 also played a part in this decrease. JW:FK -> JW:D is still not exactly a great scenario however.

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6 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Tbf, I think F9 also played a part in this decrease. JW:FK -> JW:D is still not exactly a great scenario however.

JWD had to deal with COVID still being a factor. IIRC Shanghai and Beijing were closed when it opened.

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On 6/27/2023 at 5:33 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Mission Impossible 7 (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-13 Shows Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Tuesday: 19 theaters 89 N/A 586 17346 3.38
Monday EA: 6 theaters 7 N/A 358 1372 26.09
TOTALS: 96 N/A 944 18718 5.04

 

Comp: 0.96x Indiana Jones (??) (Averaged b/t total and just Tuesday, per @M37 advice)

 

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Mission Impossible 7 (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10 Shows Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Tuesday: 19 theaters 89 93 679 17340 3.92
Monday EA: 7 theaters 7 30 388 1372 28.28
TOTALS: 96 123 1067 18712 5.7

 

Comps: 

Total- 1.24x Indiana Jones: $8.93 Million

Just Tuesday Previews- 0.78x Indiana Jones: $5.62 Million

Average (per @M37 advice)- 1.025x Indiana Jones = $7.38 Million

Edited by abracadabra1998
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1 hour ago, rebelscum86 said:

 

the maverick boost is likely to come in the intl gross which,  we don't have tracking on.

 

 

 

Why? This is the 6th or 7th MI movie. If you haven't seen the previous 5 or 6 movies, why would Top Gun influence you to see this one?

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On 6/23/2023 at 3:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-8 Saturday 168 Showings 5210 +321 27578 ATP: 14.75
2.465 The Flash T-8 38.69M
0.815 JW Dominion T-8 38.24M

 

T-9 Sunday 144 Showings 3157 +195 23993 ATP: 14.37
2.937 The Flash T-9 45.52M
0.910 JW Dominion T-9 35.12M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse [+7 days of sales]

T-1 Saturday 341 Showings 13006 +7796 47353 ATP: 14.47
1.786 The Flash T-1 28.04M
0.606 Avatar 2 T-1 26.86M
1.708 Ghostbusters T-1 28.09M

 

T-2 Sunday 316 Showings 8640 +5483 43893 ATP: 14.27
1.686 The Flash T-2 26.14M
0.651 Avatar 2 T-2 23.82M
2.300 Ghostbusters T-2 25.11M
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On 6/23/2023 at 3:31 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

T-8 Saturday 234 Showings 561 +52 35628
0.716 The Flash T-8 11.25M

 

T-9 Sunday 227 Showings 232 +23 34432
0.643 The Flash T-9 9.96M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment[+ 7 days of sales]

T-1 Saturday 290 Showings 3911 +3350 40938
1.221 The Flash T-1 19.18M

 

T-2 Sunday 275 Showings 1943 +1711 39403
0.901 The Flash T-2 13.96M
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On 6/23/2023 at 3:33 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 112 2035 5.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 174 1519 11.45%

 

Sunday: 43

Monday: 378(+16)

Tuesday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
508 5 22083 2.30% 13 108

 

1.370 Indiana Jones T-18
0.556 JW Dominion T-18 10.01M
2.693 NTTD T-18 16.78M

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 141 1979 7.12%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 228 2422 9.41%

 

Sunday: 51(+8)

Monday: 499(+121)

Tuesday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 7 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
686 178 22925 2.99% 13 110

 

1.511 Indiana Jones T-11 10.88M
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On 6/23/2023 at 3:34 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse

T-18 Tuesday 113 Showings 1528 +82 18222 ATP: 8.56
0.383 Indiana Jones T-18
0.394 JW Dominion T-18 7.09M

 

T-19 Wednesday 116 Showings 537 +42 19615 ATP: 17.30

 

T-20 Thursday 123 Showings 536 +24 20331 ATP: 16.19

 

T-21 Friday 121 Showings 920 +46 20165 ATP: 16.55
0.281 Indiana Jones T-21  
0.301 Avatar 2 T-21 10.90M
0.289 JW Dominion T-21 12.02M

 

T-22 Saturday 123 Showings 1085 +51 20842 ATP: 16.20
0.337 Indiana Jones T-22  
0.300 Avatar 2 T-22 13.29M
0.340 JW Dominion T-22 15.96M

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse [+7 days of sales]

T-11 Tuesday 116 Showings 2136 +608 18812 ATP: 8.46

 

T-12 Wednesday 116 Showings 824 +287 19615 ATP: 17.16

 

T-13 Thursday 124 Showings 798 +262 20180 ATP: 16.38

 

T-14 Friday 125 Showings 1271 +351 20356 ATP: 16.68

 

T-15 Saturday 127 Showings 1486 +401 21033 ATP: 16.22
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