The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

Does this mean $100m by Sunday is now a possibility for MI7?

 

It always was.  Tuesday non-holiday previews are always a weird beast...

[Porthos]

As someone who has been quietly bullish on MI7 the whole time (partially quiet because of the weird variables surrounding it, but mostly quiet to not jinx it), the real test for comps will be today as it'll be a T-3 Saturday versus a T-3 Monday.

 

If the comps don't take a real hit today as most films start their week-of ramp up while Saturdays-before-release often see a dip in pre-sales, then it very well could be clear sailing for the Cruise Missile.  

 

Then the only real outstanding variable will be Discount Tuesday as it is very haphazard about which chains are allowing it and which aren't.

 

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

I'm getting a headache just imagining how you adequately comp a movie like MI7 with a weird opening release schedule, I think I speak for everyone here when I say we really appreciate all the effort you trackers have put in to make these opening predictions possible.

[Borobudur]

54 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It always was.  Tuesday non-holiday previews are always a weird beast...

The Tuesday preview and countless early screening really confuse my interpretation of the number. Fallout made $77.5m in its first 5 days and I don't know how much higher I can hope for MI7.

[MattW]

1 hour ago, rehpyc said:

A full MTC, so the whole of US. In the future I'll likely break things down a bit further to some major DMAs.

Not sure how much access you have, but does this whole mtc have discounts? No theaters in my area do Tuesday discounts for new movies that release Tues or Wed, so it's surprising to me if there's a national chain that does.

[TheFlatLannister]

My interpretation of the data: $8/10/12 and $60M 3 day 

 

O/U $90M 5 day I would say. It’s very hard to predict 5 day openings 

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

My interpretation of the data: $8/10/12 and $60M 3 day 

 

O/U $90M 5 day I would say. It’s very hard to predict 5 day openings 

I think WOM will  gain steam and 100 million is a strong possibility or it hit's the Mission wall and WOM only gets it so far. Will be fun and nerve wracking to watch. 

[abracadabra1998]

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Mission Impossible 7 (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 19 theaters	142	455	1354	24637	5.5
Monday EA: 7 theaters	7	68	500	1372	36.44
Sunday EA: 4 theaters	4	73	73	698	10.46
TOTALS:	153	596	1927	26707	7.22

 

Went ahead and added the Sunday (Walmart See It First blah blah) shows. Only four theaters around the cities are having them, and they're in non-PLF screens, so it's not making a ton of a dent, at least not yet. I don't think many people maybe know about them. But anyways

 

Comps:

 

Total- 1.6x Indiana Jones: $11.56 Million

Just Tuesday Previews- 1.13x Indiana Jones: $8.12 Million

Average- 1.37x Indiana Jones = $9.8 Million

 

Awesome growth here obviously. For comparison sakes, from T-7 to T-4, MI7 grew by 39%, while Indiana Jones grew by 20% (taking away the Sunday showings I hadn't counted before, of course)

 

Maybe partly it a review bump, partly a result of more screens (even just on Tuesday, Indy was at exactly 100 showings vs. 142 for MI7), ramping up of sales, or a mixture of everything. But anyways, good signs from MSP!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Mission Impossible 7 (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 19 theaters	142	169	1523	24637	6.18
Monday EA: 7 theaters	7	31	531	1372	36.44
Sunday EA: 4 theaters	4	19	92	698	10.46
TOTALS:	153	219	2146	26707	8.04

 

Pulled these numbers a couple of hours earlier than usual because of personal life stuff.

 

Comps:

Total- 1.49x Indiana Jones: $10.7 Million

Just Tuesday Previews- 1.05x Indiana Jones: $7.59 Million

Average- 1.27x Indiana Jones = $9.15 Million

 

Slowed down vs my Indy comp, but keep in mind I pulled them earlier, and what @Porthos posted earlier. Friday into Saturday sales look very different than Sunday-Monday sales, so the fact that the new tickets added is comparable to Indy's (219 vs. 244) is a decent sign. I'm eager to see what other regions look like.

[el sid]

Quasi retrospectively:

Insidious: The Red Door counted yesterday for yesterday = Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 329 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 115 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 47 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 70 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 123 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 596 (12 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 1.280.

Up good 49% since Thursday.
Comps (all three films counted on Friday of the release week for Friday, I don't have many Friday comps so I took every film no matter of which genre): Uncharted (11.7M true Friday) had 1.721 sold tickets = 74.5% = 8.7M true Friday for Insidious.
JW4 (20.5M true Friday) had 3.954 sold tickets = 32.5% = 6.6M.
Death on the Nile (5.1M OD) had 643 sold tickets = x2 = ca. 8M.

All of my comps are a bit too low which means Insidious has - like many films of that genre - good walk-ups.

Edited July 8, 2023 by el sid

[TheFlatLannister]

Currently running my script and omg these Barbie numbers are nuts 

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Currently running my script and omg these Barbie numbers are nuts 

 

[ringedmortality]

Barbie 150M+?

[Relevation]

13 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Currently running my script and omg these Barbie numbers are nuts 

 

Does this mean the ROTB comp finally exceeded $20 million

[TheFlatLannister]

20 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Does this mean the ROTB comp finally exceeded $20 million

spot on lol 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
96	1454	17427	8.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(1.006x) of Fast X

~$7.5M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
96	1541	17427	8.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

87

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(1.053x) of Fast X

~$7.9M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1049	19452	5.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(0.516x) of TLM

~$5.3M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1097	19452	5.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-19

 

(0.538x) of TLM

~$5.5M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	1849	45746	4.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

147

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	679	2148	31.6%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 77 sold / 291 seats  (+16)

MTC2 = 61 sold / 114 seats  (+13)

 

COMPS

T-4

*Excludes any EA

 

(0.844x) of RoTB

~$7.4M TUES

 

(0.918x) of FAST X

~$6.9M TUES

 

COMP AVG: $7.15M TUES

*NOT ADJUSTED DOWN FOR TUESDAY DISCOUNT 

 

My script was skipping showings so this update is coming in a lot later than I would have liked.

 

Walmart+ Sunday showings are definitely doing better. Sales ramping up a bit, but I'm still not seeing much signs of a breakout 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	1961	45746	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

112

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	768	2148	35.8%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

89

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 106 sold / 291 seats  (+29)

MTC2 = 60 sold / 114 seats  (-1)

 

COMPS

T-3

 

Excludes any EA

 

(0.826x) of RoTB

~$7.3M TUES

 

(0.888x) of FAST X

~$6.7M TUES

 

COMP AVG: $7.0M TUES

 

WITH EA

(1.150x) of RoTB

~$10.1M TUES

 

(1.235x) of FAST X

~$9.3M TUES

 

COMP AVG: $8.35M TUESDAY WITH EA 

*NOT ADJUSTED DOWN FOR TUESDAY DISCOUNT 

 

Monday EA is doing great in the final hours. Tuesday sales are okay.

Edited July 8, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
180	2946	32369	9.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

87

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1423	1747	81.4%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

6

 

 

COMPS

T-14

*Excludes any EA

 

(2.161x) of RoTB

~$19.0M THUR Previews

 

(2.037) of Fast X

~$15.3M THUR Previews

 

(0.883x) of ATSV

~$15.3M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $16.5M THUR Previews 

 

Even on slower days, it's pacing way better than most recent films i've tracked 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
180	3235	32369	9.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

289

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1430	1747	81.8%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

6

 

 

COMPS

T-13

*Excludes any EA

 

(2.331x) of RoTB

~$20.5M THUR Previews

 

(2.210x) of Fast X

~$16.6M THUR Previews

 

(0.938x) of ATSV

~$16.3M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $17.8M THUR Previews 

 

The only thing that's going to stop Barbie from becoming a CAT 5 monster is show allocations which is still a bit low relative to other potential $100M openers i've tracked 

Edited July 8, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Flip]

Just realized MI7 has tmobile deal on Tuesday, probably won’t help out Tuesday that much but could make it jump higher on Wednesday. 🤷‍♂️

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
96	1541	17427	8.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

87

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(1.053x) of Fast X

~$7.9M THUR Previews

That seems like a great jump for Oppenheimer and it’s been on a strong upward trajectory against Fast X for the last few weeks, could it target a $70M weekend?