The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Fanboy]

Barbie is opening to 150M+ no doubt about it. Seems to be increasing against all comps virtually everywhere. 

[DAJK]

Dead Reckoning walkups are very, VERY solid today.

[Cmasterclay]

Sales for Mission: Impossible very good near me tonight, and it is usually just okay down here in South Florida due to the whiter lean of this franchise. Gotta imagine sales are quite robust in more demographically fitting cities. A quick look at my old DC theaters indicates that is true.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
180	3753	32369	11.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

328

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1455	1747	83.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

6

 

 

COMPS

T-11

*Excludes any EA

 

(2.497x) of RoTB

~$21.97M THUR Previews

 

(2.397x) of Fast X

~$17.97M THUR Previews

 

(1.002x) of ATSV

~$17.39M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $19.1M THUR Previews 

 

First time its ahead of ATSV comp (Beginning of Barbie's run comp was 0.751x). What more can i say but lol 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
180	4138	32369	12.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

385

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1461	1747	83.6%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

6

 

 

COMPS

T-10

*Excludes any EA

 

(2.632x) of RoTB

~$23.16M THUR Previews

 

(2.583x) of Fast X

~$19.37M THUR Previews

 

(1.059x) of ATSV

~$18.38M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $20.3M THUR Previews 

 

Comp average finally over $20M. How high can this go? 

[Bob-omb]

Are pre-sales for women-targeted movies this crazy? Did the pre-sales of highly awaited movies behaved like this (e.g., Frozen II)?

For me it is quite impressive that, at this pace, Barbie will end up surpassing No Way Home and Multiverse of Madness. 

 

What IM would you expect for a movie like this (considering the target audience)? Arent these movies a bit weaker on walkups than  more GA movie? 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/10/2023 at 6:40 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
97	1684	17595	9.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

75

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(1.075x) of Fast X

~$8.06M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
97	1828	17595	10.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

144

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(1.141x) of Fast X

~$8.56M THUR Previews

 

Really great day. Looks like a $50M+ OW to me 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/10/2023 at 6:42 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1173	19452	6.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

45

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-17

 

(0.564x) of TLM

~$5.8M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1236	19452	6.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

63

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.537x) of TLM

~$5.5M THUR Previews

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Could Oppenheimer actually pass Inception to become Nolan's biggest non Dark Knight opener?

 

It seems poised to pass Dunkirk's 50.5m opening and Inception stands at 62.7m, so it'll be close. I assume the lack of additional PLF capacity is what would hinder it since the demand for IMAX would halt walk-ups?

[Bob Train]

7 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

Are pre-sales for women-targeted movies this crazy? Did the pre-sales of highly awaited movies behaved like this (e.g., Frozen II)?

For me it is quite impressive that, at this pace, Barbie will end up surpassing No Way Home and Multiverse of Madness. 

 

What IM would you expect for a movie like this (considering the target audience)? Arent these movies a bit weaker on walkups than  more GA movie? 

 

Doesn't have enough screens to come close to beating Doctor Strange or No Way Home, but with that said numbers seem really good and accelerating quick.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

10 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

For me it is quite impressive that, at this pace, Barbie will end up surpassing No Way Home and Multiverse of Madness. 

[Relevation]

5 minutes ago, XXR Electric Touch said:

Deadass tho I think it passes Multiverse of Madness WW total

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

6 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Deadass tho I think it passes Multiverse of Madness WW total

That’s conceivable but not domestic previews or OW.

[TheFlatLannister]

It's definitely not beating NWH OW that's for sure. It will miss MoM OW by a decent chunk. Lack of PLF and lower show allocations will make sure of that. 

[vafrow]

14 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

 

Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1, T-1 Milton, ON

 

Fit's thing, my last few updates have been off because I undercounted MI7 sales by my formula not capturing the second screen added. Numbers have been so ridiculous, that I hadn't noticed. Sales are now at 271, which is better than anything I've tracked for T-1 except for Mario, which was 330. Mario had ridiculous walk ups, but was restrained by lack of show times.

 

3.566x of Fast X for $26.7M

8.212x of T:ROTB for $72.3M

16.938x of Indy 5 for $122.0M

1.063x of ATSV for $18.4M

3.613x of Flash for $35.0M

1.449x of GOTG3 for $25.4M

 

It's really hard to make sense of these numbers when stateside comps point to so much lower. Looking around me, sales at other theatres seem strong as well, so, maybe this area is just that much more excited for this. 

 

Either way, crazy sales. I'll do my Barbie update in a bit, but, it also had a crazy day.

 

 

Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1, T-0 Early show close Milton, ON

 

Early shows have closed, and sales are second highest I've seen, not that far off from Mario. Total so far is 472, with ability to increase with the late shows. 

 

3.455x of Fast X for $25.8M

4.252x of T:ROTB for $37.4M

6.742x of Indy 5 for $48.5M

1.392x of ATSV for $24.1M

3.933x of Flash for $38.2M

1.788x of GOTG3 for $31.3M

0.846x of Super Mario for $26.8M

 

I'll give a quick update tonight. I'm now just interested on how much this will overindex here compared to actuals.

[Bob-omb]

4 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

It's definitely not beating NWH OW that's for sure. It will miss MoM OW by a decent chunk. Lack of PLF and lower show allocations will make sure of that. 

 

You are totally right it wont have enough screens or PLFs with MI7 and Oppenheimer playing at the same time. Based on your reply and the the otherI realized I explained myself wrongly. What I meant is that Barbie's pre-sales are gaining ground against the pre-sales of NWH and Multiverse of Madness and maybe it could beat both movies in pre-sales but not in the actual OW.  Anyway I rechecked the data and it is only in the Alamo Drafthouse where Barbie is comparable. I am on the 140-150M train.

[JustLurking]

I can see the appeal in getting lost in the hype with the mad numbers Barbie is putting out (I've seen a 2b club) but yeah it obviously ain't touching MoM, it won't get those shows. Also keep in mind Drafthouse even among the sea of crazy updates is just an outlier, the film is very clearly overindexing there.

 

If we had some show count problems with SV it's definitely looking like it's going to be more of an issue here, the pace is just too wild for what it will probably end up with. Still if this ends up opening like 130-150M I would consider it a freaking triumph of an opening.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:05pm]

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	23561	28813	5252	18.23%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	5
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	636
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	653

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD [12:00-12:35]	170.02		303	3089		0/178	21629/24718	12.50%		3737	140.54%		10.54m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	55.34		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	47.89%		9.96m
Ava 2 [11:30-12:15]	66.42		666	7907		0/310	27128/35035	22.57%		8986	58.45%		11.29m
Wick4 [11:45-12:20]	120.87		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	96.40%		10.76m
FX [11:30-12:05]	154.24		477	3405		0/243	29842/33247	10.24%		4122	127.41%		11.57m
RotB [11:40-12:10]	134.01		487	3919		0/202	21893/25812	15.18%		4767	110.17%		11.79m
Indy 5 [11:45-12:15]	131.86		478	3983		0/183	20730/24713	16.12%		4973	105.61%		9.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp WILL come down when sales are final.

Regal:          1372/8767  [15.65% sold]
Matinee:        331/1992  [16.62% | 6.30% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    1315/8706  [15.10% | 25.04% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]    
---------    
Sun:          260/456 [57.02% sold] [FINAL]
Mon:    1306/2288 [57.08% sold] [FINAL]
Tue:    3658/25662 [14.25% sold] [+640 tickets]

 

======

 

Strong start to the day, as expected.  Comps aren't accelerating like they had been, but frankly that was also expected.  Could be 10m to 10.5m in total previews ***BEFORE*** an adjustment is made for Discount Tuesdays. 

 

Given that it's already at 25% of all sales, probably eyeballing 8m to 9m in previews w/Discount Tuesday.Maybe even higher.  Which is no small thing, IMO.

 

Problem is, I have no real frame of reference for Discount Tuesday on a preview night, so it's gonna be a near total ass-pull of a guess. But more on that later.

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:15pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	205	22177	28729	6552	22.81%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Removed Since Mid-Day	84
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1300

 

T-0 Comps: [NOT ADJUSTED FOR DISCOUNT TUESDAY —— SEE BELOW]

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	175.33		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		3737	175.33%		10.87m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	59.75		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	59.75%		10.75m
Ava 2 [3:50-4:25]	72.91		1079	8986		0/310	26049/35035	25.65%		8986	72.91%		12.40m
Wick 4 [3:50-4:15]	120.26		1103	5448		0/186	17238/22686	24.01%		5448	120.26%		10.70m
FX [3:50-4:15]	158.95		717	4122		0/243	29125/33247	12.40%		4122	158.95%		11.92m
RotB [3:50-4:15]	131.75		1054	4973		0/202	20839/25812	19.27%		4767	137.44%		11.59m
Indy 5 [3:50-4:20]	137.44		784	4767		0/183	20009/24776	19.24%		4973	131.75%		9.90m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp WILL come down when sales are final.

Regal:         1825/8767  [20.82% sold]
Matinee:       564/1992  [28.31% | 8.61% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    1797/8706  [20.64% | 27.43% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]    
---------    
Sun:          260/456 [57.02% sold] [FINAL]
Mon:     1306/2288 [57.08% sold] [FINAL]
Tue:    4986/25578 [19.49% sold] [+1300 tickets]

 

====

 

If I count the Mid-Day totals, MI7 has already sold nearly 2000 tickets locally as of 4:15pm.  The 1300 since mid-day total blitzed all of the listed comps not named JWD.

 

Glancing at other comps, it's only 69 tickets short of LTBC's Mid-Day to Final run (obligatory: Niiiice).  And it isn't until we get to the movies of 17m or more where it can no longer hang (AtSV's mid-day to final, for instance was 1676 tickets).

 

Just a fantastic finish locally.

 

If was doing a straight call, probably be looking 10.7m or so. Maybe centered on 11m as I think about it.  But then there's Discount Tuesday, which is absolutely juicing the numbers.  The percentage of tickets which qualify for discounts jumped all the way to 27% of all tickets sold, so I have to slice a huge amount off the total.  Saw @Inceptionzq estimate a 30% slice off of Tuesday sales, but I think I'll go with a near 25% slice (which not quite coincidentally comes to a little more than 2m taken off the comp) and say 8.6m +/- .8m.

 

Large error bar due solely to an extreme ass-pull over Discount Tuesday.  Have no real clue how to treat it, really.  But taking off 2m to 3m feels right, so I'll go with that.

 

To put it another way, 9m+ won't surprise me, but neither would 7.5m.  Such is the havoc created by Discount Tuesday.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

 

 

[Bob Train]

Is MI7 expected to play well outside of metros like Indy 5 did or no?

[vafrow]

Barbie showtimes update for Southern Ontario.

 

Covering a wide area of (full GTA, and up to London and Niagara Falls), total showtimes for Barbie as of yesterday through regular pre-sale release was about 140.

 

With full showtime updates to the Thursday, that total showtime number has only gone up to 210. At my local theatre, Barbie is only getting one, while Oppenheimer is getting two, including the premium theatre (not IMAX either).