The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

 

Brain is fried from 10 hours of tracking and reports on top of work, but here's an early showtime report.  I'm sure that everything isn't finalized yet for the weekend, but as expected Barbie is taking a huge chunk of the weekend, over doubling Oppenheimer in total shows.  Really big drop for M:I 7 from last weekend (which did not have previews included).  SoF not taking much of a hit and should hold pretty well as counterprogramming.  Should be a really fun weekend at the movies!

 

Movie	Total	Change
Barbie Thu	24,273
Barbie 3-Day	125,812
Barbie Total	150,085
Oppenheimer Thu	9,905
Oppenheimer 3-Day	60,738
Oppenheimer Total	70,643
M:I 7	45,579	-54.44%
Sound of Freedom	31,783	-13.11%
Indiana Jones 5	24,289	-40.36%
Elemental	24,093	-31.50%
Insidious 6	25,376	-41.38%
Spider-Verse 2	9,473	-63.00%
No Hard Feelings	3,517	-81.92%
Transformers 6	4,049	-76.18%
Little Mermaid	3,202	-72.45%

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Brain is fried from 10 hours of tracking and reports on top of work, but here's an early showtime report.  I'm sure that everything isn't finalized yet for the weekend, but as expected Barbie is taking a huge chunk of the weekend, over doubling Oppenheimer in total shows.  Really big drop for M:I 7 from last weekend (which did not have previews included).  SoF not taking much of a hit and should hold pretty well as counterprogramming.  Should be a really fun weekend at the movies!

 

Movie	Total	Change
Barbie Thu	24,273
Barbie 3-Day	125,812
Barbie Total	150,085
Oppenheimer Thu	9,905
Oppenheimer 3-Day	60,738
Oppenheimer Total	70,643
M:I 7	45,579	-54.44%
Sound of Freedom	31,783	-13.11%
Indiana Jones 5	24,289	-40.36%
Elemental	24,093	-31.50%
Insidious 6	25,376	-41.38%
Spider-Verse 2	9,473	-63.00%
No Hard Feelings	3,517	-81.92%
Transformers 6	4,049	-76.18%
Little Mermaid	3,202	-72.45%

 

With that showing drop, Mermaid is gonna need a re-release or re-expansion for $300M...

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Brain is fried from 10 hours of tracking and reports on top of work, but here's an early showtime report.  I'm sure that everything isn't finalized yet for the weekend, but as expected Barbie is taking a huge chunk of the weekend, over doubling Oppenheimer in total shows.  Really big drop for M:I 7 from last weekend (which did not have previews included).  SoF not taking much of a hit and should hold pretty well as counterprogramming.  Should be a really fun weekend at the movies!

 

Movie	Total	Change
Barbie Thu	24,273
Barbie 3-Day	125,812
Barbie Total	150,085
Oppenheimer Thu	9,905
Oppenheimer 3-Day	60,738
Oppenheimer Total	70,643
M:I 7	45,579	-54.44%
Sound of Freedom	31,783	-13.11%
Indiana Jones 5	24,289	-40.36%
Elemental	24,093	-31.50%
Insidious 6	25,376	-41.38%
Spider-Verse 2	9,473	-63.00%
No Hard Feelings	3,517	-81.92%
Transformers 6	4,049	-76.18%
Little Mermaid	3,202	-72.45%

Awesome stuff. Thank you for the update. 

 

 

  

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

With that showing drop, Mermaid is gonna need a re-release or re-expansion for $300M...

I think its close enough that double features with Haunted Mansion should do it :-)

Edited July 19, 2023 by keysersoze123

[ringedmortality]

So are there any sort of numbers showing Haunted Mansion doing well in black areas.

[Porthos]

So been thinking about Oppenheimer's show count for tomorrow and I think it is a perfect storm of factors:

 

1] Barbizilla is just laying waste to everything in its path, or at least theaters are allocating it all the spare screens they can in the hopes to suck up as much initial upfront interest as possible.

 

2] 3 hour run time ***PLUS*** 5pm start time equals two showings max per screen, unless a theater wants to gamble with 1am showings (and none locally are doing that) [more on this below].

 

3] Near three hour runtime for MI7 is also hogging up screens, as that limits theaters ability to juggle showtimes between it and Oppenheimer, or at least making it more complicated.

 

4] PLFs are maxing out of preferred seats and the 15/70mm showing is actually literally at the neck-crane seats only left as even the aisle seats are sold out.  With as big of a deal as PLF has been made for this film, there might be some reluctance to get standard showings (though we're also at the stage of beggars can't be choosers).

 

Not really sure what Oppenheimer could have done differently if it wanted to keep this date as this isn't the type of film that would have attracted much of a crowd at 3pm (or worse, 2pm).  Might have made things worse with a 3/7/11 schedule as opposed to a 5/9 | 6/10.   Maaaaaaybe 4pm showings?  Say, 4/8/12??  Probably not though.

 

Mind, the stellar reviews might make all of this moot (I'll get a better sense of that when I do my nightly check).  And, as I and others have mentioned, should be strong with the legs.  But we might need to reel in the expectations for Oppenheimer's Thursday preview number a tad.

 

===

 

In the end, this really is reminding me of a mini-version of Ava 2, if for slightly different reasons.

[interiorgatordecorator]

42 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Brain is fried from 10 hours of tracking and reports on top of work, but here's an early showtime report.  I'm sure that everything isn't finalized yet for the weekend, but as expected Barbie is taking a huge chunk of the weekend, over doubling Oppenheimer in total shows.  Really big drop for M:I 7 from last weekend (which did not have previews included).  SoF not taking much of a hit and should hold pretty well as counterprogramming.  Should be a really fun weekend at the movies!

 

Movie	Total	Change
Barbie Thu	24,273
Barbie 3-Day	125,812
Barbie Total	150,085
Oppenheimer Thu	9,905
Oppenheimer 3-Day	60,738
Oppenheimer Total	70,643
M:I 7	45,579	-54.44%
Sound of Freedom	31,783	-13.11%
Indiana Jones 5	24,289	-40.36%
Elemental	24,093	-31.50%
Insidious 6	25,376	-41.38%
Spider-Verse 2	9,473	-63.00%
No Hard Feelings	3,517	-81.92%
Transformers 6	4,049	-76.18%
Little Mermaid	3,202	-72.45%

 

how does MI7 losing more shows than indian jones and insidious make sense?

is that what happens when your market cap is only 10 billion?

or is that normal considering the loss of all plfs?

Edited July 19, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[Deep Wang]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

how does MI7 losing more shows than indian jones and insidious make sense?

is that what happens when your market cap is only 10 billion?

or is that normal considering the loss of all plfs?

 

Disney is a HUGE bully.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

45 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Brain is fried from 10 hours of tracking and reports on top of work, but here's an early showtime report.  I'm sure that everything isn't finalized yet for the weekend, but as expected Barbie is taking a huge chunk of the weekend, over doubling Oppenheimer in total shows.  Really big drop for M:I 7 from last weekend (which did not have previews included).  SoF not taking much of a hit and should hold pretty well as counterprogramming.  Should be a really fun weekend at the movies!

 

Movie	Total	Change
Barbie Thu	24,273
Barbie 3-Day	125,812
Barbie Total	150,085
Oppenheimer Thu	9,905
Oppenheimer 3-Day	60,738
Oppenheimer Total	70,643
M:I 7	45,579	-54.44%
Sound of Freedom	31,783	-13.11%
Indiana Jones 5	24,289	-40.36%
Elemental	24,093	-31.50%
Insidious 6	25,376	-41.38%
Spider-Verse 2	9,473	-63.00%
No Hard Feelings	3,517	-81.92%
Transformers 6	4,049	-76.18%
Little Mermaid	3,202	-72.45%

Fantastic data, thanks for taking the time to do this.

 

Elemental's drop is a little steeper than the one it just experienced in South Korea during MI7's opening weekend (17,207 FSS showings -> 13,026, -24.3%). It dropped 23% that weekend, but SK's holds have been insane so maybe DOM will proportionally perform a little worse. Does 35% sound sensible? It would be the same drop Encanto had when NWH opened.

[DAJK]

Oppenheimer’s gonna have a Thursday number of 7.5-8 and some people are going to have a meltdown saying it’s a flop. Then its weekend is going to rebound to 60-65M and all will be well and good.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Oppenheimer’s gonna have a Thursday number of 7.5-8 and some people are going to have a meltdown saying it’s a flop. Then its weekend is going to rebound to 60-65M and all will be well and good.

 

[Bob Train]

59 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Brain is fried from 10 hours of tracking and reports on top of work, but here's an early showtime report.  I'm sure that everything isn't finalized yet for the weekend, but as expected Barbie is taking a huge chunk of the weekend, over doubling Oppenheimer in total shows.  Really big drop for M:I 7 from last weekend (which did not have previews included).  SoF not taking much of a hit and should hold pretty well as counterprogramming.  Should be a really fun weekend at the movies!

 

Movie	Total	Change
Barbie Thu	24,273
Barbie 3-Day	125,812
Barbie Total	150,085
Oppenheimer Thu	9,905
Oppenheimer 3-Day	60,738
Oppenheimer Total	70,643
M:I 7	45,579	-54.44%
Sound of Freedom	31,783	-13.11%
Indiana Jones 5	24,289	-40.36%
Elemental	24,093	-31.50%
Insidious 6	25,376	-41.38%
Spider-Verse 2	9,473	-63.00%
No Hard Feelings	3,517	-81.92%
Transformers 6	4,049	-76.18%
Little Mermaid	3,202	-72.45%

Hang on lemme make some quick adjustments to my Derby

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/18/2023 at 3:44 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

707

1455

48.59%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

741

1782

41.58%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 3594 512 10509 34.20% 13 59

 

0.976	AtSV T-2	16.94M
0.670	Avatar 2 T-2	11.38M
0.453	Thor L&T T-2	13.13M
0.819	JW Dominion T-2	14.74M
1.757	Dune T-2	8.96M

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

749

1455

51.48%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

809

1782

45.40%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4106	512	12056	34.06%	13	76

 

0.882	AtSV T-1	15.31M
0.695	Avatar 2 T-1	11.81M
0.453	Thor L&T T-1	13.15M
0.815	JW Dominion T-1	14.66M
1.791	Dune T-1	9.14M

[M37]

40 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Not really sure what Oppenheimer could have done differently if it wanted to keep this date as this isn't the type of film that would have attracted much of a crowd at 3pm (or worse, 2pm).  Might have made things worse with a 3/7/11 schedule as opposed to a 5/9 | 6/10.   Maaaaaaybe 4pm showings?  Say, 4/8/12??  Probably not though.

Honestly, 5pm is probably the worst possible time they could have picked for a 3hr run time (4hr gap) film. Led to a default (and often IMAX) schedule of 5p/9p - no shows in what is typically the prime zone, too early and too late respectively for people working typical M-F/9-5 jobs, and max 2 shows on any given screen

 

The time that was most logical would have been 2p(6p/10p),or even 3p(7p, with theaters able to squeeze in another late show ~10p in a different auditorium, or run the 11pm if location business warrants). And don’t agree about not attracting a crowd at 2/3p - those showtimes are selling pretty well on Friday, still a workday. But 5pm makes absolutely no sense from a weekday scheduling perspective 

 

I vaguely remember saying something similar when tickets went on sale?

EDIT - yep, sure did

Edited July 19, 2023 by M37

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/18/2023 at 3:46 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-2 Thursday

100 Showings

8546

+682

13767

ATP:

16.78

0.910	Avatar 2 T-2	15.47M
0.448	Thor L&T T-2	12.99M
0.869	JW Dominion T-2	15.64M

 

T-3 Friday

248 Showings

12387

+2055

29597

ATP:

15.75

0.997	Avatar 2 T-3	36.09M
0.716	Thor L&T T-3	29.05M
1.064	JW Dominion T-3	44.25M

 

T-4 Saturday

250 Showings

14524

+2267

30076

ATP:

15.75

1.095	Avatar 2 T-4	48.56M
0.884	Thor L&T T-4	37.22M
1.266	JW Dominion T-4	59.34M

 

T-5 Sunday

244 Showings

10480

+1732

29589

ATP:

15.91

1.199	Avatar 2 T-5	43.85M
1.033	Thor L&T T-5	33.57M
1.678	JW Dominion T-5	64.78M

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Thursday

129 Showings

10164

+1618

16022

ATP:

16.49

0.967	Avatar 2 T-1	16.44M
0.463	Thor L&T T-1	13.43M
0.892	JW Dominion T-1	16.05M

 

T-2 Friday

252 Showings

14758

+2371

29923

ATP:

15.50

1.043	Avatar 2 T-2	37.76M
0.724	Thor L&T T-2	29.35M
1.023	JW Dominion T-2	42.55M

 

T-3 Saturday

255 Showings

16864

+2340

30616

ATP:

15.45

1.124	Avatar 2 T-3	49.81M
0.887	Thor L&T T-3	37.33M
1.248	JW Dominion T-3	58.54M

 

T-4 Sunday

246 Showings

12449

+1969

29862

ATP:

15.60

1.292	Avatar 2 T-4	47.27M
1.076	Thor L&T T-4	34.96M
1.560	JW Dominion T-4	60.21M

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/18/2023 at 3:49 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-2 Thursday

87 Showings

3683

+389

12957

0.934

AtSV T-2

16.20M

 

T-3 Friday

188 Showings

5974

+1272

25367

1.339

AtSV T-3

46.19M

 

T-4 Saturday

184 Showings

4798

+1084

25143

1.917

AtSV T-4

71.69M

 

T-5 Sunday

166 Showings

2758

+716

23383

2.720

AtSV T-5

85.00M

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Thursday

93 Showings

4937

+1254

13968

0.920

AtSV T-1

15.97M

 

T-2 Friday

203 Showings

7419

+1445

26723

1.246

AtSV T-2

43.00M

 

T-3 Saturday

201 Showings

5933

+1135

26114

1.753

AtSV T-3

65.57M

 

T-4 Sunday

185 Showings

3643

+885

24745

2.533

AtSV T-4

79.17M

[Relevation]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

thursday is the least important day for Oppy. Its doing great entire weekend. IM is going to be huge and probably the biggest of all big openers in a while. 

Could we see a better IM than Dunkirk’s 9.1x, maybe closer to 10x? You could extrapolate to some really big numbers off an IM that big

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/18/2023 at 3:50 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

570

839

67.94%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

826

1942

42.53%

 

Wednesday: 1153(+38)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5161	887	16842	30.64%	13	121

 

1.715	AtSV T-2	29.75M
3.074	TLM T-2	31.66M
1.176	Avatar 2 T-2	20.00M
0.796	Thor L&T T-2	23.07M
1.438	JW Dominion T-2	25.89M

Barbie Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

695

2053

33.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

965

2812

34.32%

 

Wednesday: 1233(+80)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6326	1165	22504	28.11%	13	181

 

1.624	AtSV T-1	28.18M
3.067	TLM T-1	31.59M
1.279	Avatar 2 T-1	21.74M
0.835	Thor L&T T-1	24.20M
1.500	JW Dominion T-1	27.00M

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Honestly, 5pm is probably the worst possible time they could have picked for a 3hr run time (4hr gap) film. Led to a default (and often IMAX) schedule of 5p/9p - no shows in what is typically the prime zone, too early and too late respectively for people working typical M-F/9-5 jobs, and max 2 shows on any given screen

 

The time that was most logical would have been 2p(6p/10p),or even 3p(7p, with theaters able to squeeze in another late show ~10p in a different auditorium, or run the 11pm if location business warrants). And don’t agree about not attracting a crowd at 2/3p - those showtimes are selling pretty well on Friday, still a workday. But 5pm makes absolutely no sense from a weekday scheduling perspective 

 

I vaguely remember saying something similar when tickets went on sale?

EDIT - yep, sure did

lincoln sq added 3PM show for Oppy and it sold out asap. 

Edited July 19, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/18/2023 at 3:52 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Wednesday	15 Showings	2061	+0	2067	ATP:	19.52
T-2 Thursday	300 Showings	21071	+3133	33236

0.900	Doctor Strange 2 T-2	32.41M
0.784	No Way Home T-2	39.21M

 

T-3 Friday

445 Showings

28240

+5108

51179

ATP:

15.06

1.092

Doctor Strange 2 T-3

59.74M

 

T-4 Saturday

461 Showings

28536

+4606

52172

ATP:

14.85

1.041

Doctor Strange 2 T-4

60.18M

 

T-5 Sunday

446 Showings

22100

+3656

50140

ATP:

14.79

1.392	Doctor Strange 2 T-5	54.13M
1.281	No Way Home T-5	82.29M

Barbie Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Wednesday	15 Showings	2062	+1	2067	ATP:	19.52
T-1 Thursday	305 Showings	23663	+2592	33997

0.920	Doctor Strange 2 T-1	33.13M
0.763	No Way Home T-1	38.13M

 

T-2 Friday

459 Showings

32318

+4078

52852

ATP:

14.94

1.110	Doctor Strange 2 T-2	60.73M
1.012	No Way Home T-2	72.85M

 

T-3 Saturday

483 Showings

32797

+4261

54748

ATP:

14.76

1.083	Doctor Strange 2 T-3	62.61M
0.998	No Way Home T-3	73.79M

 

T-4 Sunday

466 Showings

25472

+3372

52447

ATP:

14.66

1.432

Doctor Strange 2 T-4

55.70M

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Honestly, 5pm is probably the worst possible time they could have picked for a 3hr run time (4hr gap) film. Led to a default (and often IMAX) schedule of 5p/9p - no shows in what is typically the prime zone, too early and too late respectively for people working typical M-F/9-5 jobs, and max 2 shows on any given screen

 

The time that was most logical would have been 2p(6p/10p),or even 3p(7p, with theaters able to squeeze in another late show ~10p in a different auditorium, or run the 11pm if location business warrants). And don’t agree about not attracting a crowd at 2/3p - those showtimes are selling pretty well on Friday, still a workday. But 5pm makes absolutely no sense from a weekday scheduling perspective 

 

I vaguely remember saying something similar when tickets went on sale?

EDIT - yep, sure did

 

Agree, 5 PM and 9 PM seems pretty rough on a Thursday night. Should have gone with 3 PM and 7 PM instead. They'll have to hope some of those folks are willing to still see the movie on the weekend with a better showtime.