The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Madhuvan]

1 minute ago, vafrow said:

 

What gets me on these records, is that these other films it's compared to have extensive marketing campaigns and known dates. People who were geared up for NWH or Endgame had those dates circled. They freed their calendars, and were ready to go when ticket sales dropped.

 

This just happened out of the blue. No prep time. No lead time to oegsniz with friends to coordinate. Just an announcement and immediate sale.

 

It's why I feel like sales will continue at a decent pace this week as people get themselves organized.

The factor here is Taylor Swift

 

She has been training us with these kinds of deadlines since Folklore era start. We have accustomed ourselves too it 

[vale9001]

not already 26M and only at Amc 💀.

 

Women really said this year it's time for OUR pop culture.

[CJohn]

20 hours ago, datpepper said:

This concert film wasn’t going to be officially announced until next Wednesday! When was the last time BOT of all things caused an announcement shift like this?

 

Extremely proud of my sources and myself. This was easily the biggest scoop we’ve uncovered so far.

Wait what lmao BOT caused this?

[vale9001]

Barbie Imax tickets officially on sale

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

With theaters giving it more screens and shows after Exorcist backing off + 26M in presales on AMC alone i just can’t see this doing much lower than 100M OW atp 

 

Likely over tbh, waiting the sales from today, but it doesn’t looks like it’s running out of steam

[Nova]

Taylor Swift might as well be her own country with all the money she generates. $26M in pre-sales in the first 24 hours at ONE theater chain is insane anyway you cut it. 

 

The hold this woman has on the world right now….

[vale9001]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

With theaters giving it more screens and shows after Exorcist backing off + 26M in presales on AMC alone i just can’t see this doing much lower than 100M OW atp 

 

Likely over tbh, waiting the sales from today, but it doesn’t looks like it’s running out of steam

 

 

also the "playing only in the weekend for 4 weeks (they can became more i guess)" is smart. It gives vibes of "las vegas pop show every weekend" and something you can see again. So at least for a second weekend i think could make very big numbers too.

Edited September 1, 2023 by vale9001

[KeepItU25071906]

26 minutes ago, vafrow said:

This just happened out of the blue. No prep time. No lead time to oegsniz with friends to coordinate. Just an announcement and immediate sale.

Swifties. They are very addicted, sometimes in a scary and sick way.

 

But if it helps theaters go through SAG/WGA strike - why not.

[vafrow]

On 8/30/2023 at 2:29 PM, vafrow said:

The Nun 2, Thursday previews T-8.5/ Day 1 (~20hrs), southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  24

New Sales: 24

Growth from yesterday: NA

Theatre Count:  48

Showtimes:  115

Tickets per showtime: 0.209

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Not pulling in comps since I don't have much, especially being Day 1, but also at T8/9 range. But gives a baseline if I continue doing updates.

 

 

 

The Nun 2, Thursday previews T-7, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  87

New Sales: 63

Growth from Wednesday: 263%

Theatre Count:  48

Showtimes:  115

Tickets per showtime: 0.757

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Comps

0.486x Equalizer 3 for $1.8M

0.274x Blue Beetle for $0.9M

 

Not great comps, but, wanted to give something.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/25/2023 at 9:42 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Gran Turismo	3,130	66,794		54,459		12,335	2,345	0
Barbie	3,089	47,693	-13.38%	46,792	381.96	901	0	0
Blue Beetle	3,135	46,231	-32.21%	43,370	303.79	2,861	792	0
Strays	2,789	37,762	-15.85%	37,738	158.30	24	0	0
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem	2,638	33,493	-18.76%	30,982	207.12	2,511	0	2,349
Retribution	1,705	26,853		26,843		10	0	0
Oppenheimer	2,399	25,553	-14.43%	24,215	359.18	1,338	1,249	0
Meg 2: The Trench	2,382	24,272	-28.34%	22,123	199.77	2,149	0	2,139
The Hill	1,500	20,410		20,410		0	0	0
Golda	794	12,520		12,520		0	0	0
Haunted Mansion	1,379	10,782	-45.98%	10,703	151.66	79	0	0
Jurassic Park - 30th Anniversary in 3D	1,183	9,791		0		9,791	0	9,791
Sound of Freedom	1,293	9,373	-38.49%	9,362	170.68	11	0	0
Talk to Me	1,168	9,040	-38.47%	9,035	215.00	5	0	0
The Little Mermaid	1,427	8,310		8,305		5	0	0
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One	1,457	8,240	-24.84%	8,207	249.68	33	0	0
The Super Mario Bros. Movie	1,335	8,224		8,154		70	0	58
The Last Voyage of the Demeter	1,234	5,311	-80.99%	5,308	89.64	3	0	0
American Graffiti 50th Anniversary	703	1,111		1,111		0	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

Gran Turismo - 66,794 (3,130 TC) (11,320 previews)

 - Meg 2 - 67,894 (2,826) (11,451)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241) (5,793)

 - Snake Eyes - 64,832 (3,008) (6,018)

 

Retribution - 26,853 (1,705 TC) (2,477 previews)

 - Stillwater - 28,558 (2,337) (3,012)

 - Bones and All - 28,849 (2,409)

 - King's Daughter - 26,174 (1,987) (2,992)

 

The Hill - 20,410 (1,500 TC) (2,337 previews)

 - Journal for Jordan - 19,572 (2,055) (4,116)

 - Amazing Maurice - 17,980 (1,672) (2,253)

 - Christmas with Chosen - 18,800 (1,556)

 - Infinite Storm - 19,579 (1,481) (1,669)

 

Golda - 12,520 (794 TC) (1,860 previews)*

 - Spencer (11,579 (840) (1,436)

 - Wolf and the Lamb - 12,069 (938) (938)

 - Mrs. Harris - 13,334 (935) (1,350)

 - The Good House - 12,607 (987) (1,060)

 - Jules - 12,726 (752) (1,842)

 

*Missed pulling EA shows

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Equalizer 2 - 52,325 (2,325 TC) (9,723 previews)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672) (8,420)

 - Bullet Train - 53,866 (2,579) (10,336)

 - Creed III - 48,260 (5,790)

 - Nope - 52,246 (2,594) (9,683)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 3,362 (1,489 TC)

 - Father Stu - 3,134 (1,400)

 - Otto - 3,582 (1,324)

 - Dog - 3,104 (1,383)

 

Jawan - 1,778 (410 TC)

 - RRR - 2,050 (526)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
The Equalizer 3	3,204	92,796		76,137		16,659	4,999	0
Barbie	2,863	38,805	-18.64%	38,250	316.70	555	0	0
Gran Turismo	2,942	34,674	-37.50%	34,030	260.66	644	47	0
Blue Beetle	2,658	32,545	-29.60%	32,104	262.99	441	11	0
Ninja Turtles	2,376	28,271	-15.59%	27,110	217.65	1,161	0	1,133
Strays	2,049	21,358	-43.44%	21,343	130.55	15	0	0
Oppenheimer	2,028	19,964	-21.87%	19,750	321.71	214	163	0
Meg 2: The Trench	1,810	17,452	-28.10%	16,468	197.86	984	0	970
Retribution	1,541	17,247	-29.25%	17,238	131.04	9	0	0
The Hill	1,461	13,405	-25.83%	13,405	112.78	0	0	0
Bottoms	629	11,170		11,149		21	0	0
Elemental	1,744	10,409		10,303		106	0	17
Talk to Me	872	7,189	-20.48%	7,189	231.03	0	0	0
Haunted Mansion	924	7,124	-33.93%	7,076	184.21	48	0	0
Golda	639	6,847	-35.77%	6,847	135.46	0	0	0
Sound of Freedom	833	5,904	-37.01%	5,898	165.55	6	0	0
The Good Mother	375	5,759		5,759		0	0	0
Mission: Impossible	732	4,637	-43.73%	4,616	249.88	21	0	0
Jurassic Park	620	3,664	-54.55%	0	173.93	3,664	0	3,661

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

Equalizer 2 - 92,796 (3,204 TC) (14,095 previews)

 - Jungle Cruise - 94,654 (3,334) (9,677)

 - Bullet Train - 94,719 (3,499) (14,147)

 - Creed III - 92,873 (3,366) (8,805)

 - Halloween Kills - 92,661 (3,143) (9,077)

 

Bottoms - 11,170 (629 TC)

 - French Dispatch (11,895) (750)

 

The Good Mother - 5,759 (375 TC)

 - Eyes of Tammy Faye - 5,545 (394)

 - The Gray Man - 6,113 (410)

 - For the Love of Money - 5,585 (494)

 - Blue Bayou - 5,439 (444)

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

The Nun II - 46,904 (2,055 TC) (7,967 previews)

 - Scream VI - 47,509 (2,548) (8,081)

 - Haunted Mansion - 41,831 (2,393) (8,100)

 - Creed III - 48,260 (2,518) (5,790)

 

Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 27,248 (1,997 TC) (3,928 previews)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321) (4,519)

 - West Side Story - 27,605 (1,950) (4,311)

 - Easter Sunday - 27,805 (1,950) (5,188)

 - I Wanna Dance - 28,953 (2,345) (6,409)

 - No Hard Feelings - 27,994 (1,836) (5,070)

 

Jawan - 8,375 (541 TC) (2,037 Thu)*

 - Brahmastra Part 1 - 7,708 (516)

 

*This is a Thursday release, but I included those shows since there are no previews

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Haunting in Venice (9/13 EA) - 97

Haunting in Venice - 1,587 (622 TC)

 - Amazing Maurice - 1,770 (618)

 - West Side Story - 1,507 (613)

 - Massive Talent - 1,490 (831)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtime Comps

The Blind - 2,476 (1,390 TC)

 - Easter Sunday - 2,853 (1,085)

 

T-6 Weeks

Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Fri) - 3,947 (621 TC)*

 - Oppenheimer (Thu) - 5,419 (1,954)

 - Nope (Thu) - 4,794 (1,157)

Taylor Swift Eras Tour (F-Su) - 20,722 (621 TC)*

 

*My source does not have MTC1 shows listed and are thus not included in the counts.  You can find the totals in this thread though.

[vale9001]

Alamo is opening tickets sales for Eras tour today

 

https://drafthouse.com/lubbock/show/taylor-swift-the-eras-tour

[Inceptionzq]

 

[vafrow]

50 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

Swifties. They are very addicted, sometimes in a scary and sick way.

 

But if it helps theaters go through SAG/WGA strike - why not.

 

I'm not complaining. All fandoms can get obsessive and cross certain lines, but swifties have always seemed relatively harmless.

 

I'm just trying to assess the impact on sales trends. I imagine the short notice nature of this means there's still untapped demand, even among the hardcore.

[vale9001]

this is gonna change the movie industry in some form.

Basically it's the exhibitors just showing a movie, not as a studio intermediary.

 

It could be interesting. If they can create their movie events by their own (with the possibility to decide to take off screenings to other studios movies) it's definitely a new power.

 

Maybe studios will stop to release movies on VOD after just 20 days 🧐

Edited September 1, 2023 by vale9001

[Shawn Robbins]

Preliminary data pulls: TayTay's first Saturday presales are around 55% of first Friday at the moment from two of the top three chains. Will be curious to see how much the gap bobs and weaves as more showtimes + exhibitors come on board, among other factors.

[Inceptionzq]

30 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

 

Fandango has gotta be ranking their presellers by admissions and not gross, right? Been looking through previous tracking threads, and this should easily be top 2 for first 24 hours gross-wise, even with a much higher AMC ratio. For admissions, it would make sense for it to "only" be top 10.

[keysersoze123]

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Sat - 296446/1301748 6310498.94 6964 shows

Sun - 200393/1294568 4330014.77 6938 shows

 

I think it can sell 800k+ tickets on both days here. That would be 16m+ just on 1 chain. 65m+ sat/sun could be in play 🙂

[Cmasterclay]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Equalizer 3 MTC1

Previews Final - 76164/505398 1216085.88 2623 shows

Friday - 50446/824751 798016.56 4305 shows

 

I am glad walk ups were really good and it finished as I expected yesterday. No change in my predictions. I am expecting MTC1 to over index and calling for ~3.75m previews.

 

Weekend should play as what I predicted yesterday or slightly less. I would say 35m+ over 4 days.   

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/31/2023 at 8:43 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding	T-7	Jax	5	13	3	32	1,351	2.37%
		Phx	6	16	0	24	1,490	1.61%
		Ral	7	17	0	16	1,877	0.85%
	Total		18	46	3	72	4,718	1.53%

*Showtimes have disappeared for MTC 1 in all regions and even a couple MTC3s.  Not sure if it's a glitch with the Swift thing going on sale, but I don't really have time to look into it today.

 

Greek Wedding T-7 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - .541x (541k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .291x (370k)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .837x (921k)

 - Strays (Total) - .9x (990k)

 - Barbie (Total) - .019x (425k)

 

Size adjusted average - 752k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding	T-6	Jax	5	13	-1	31	1,351	2.29%
		Phx	6	16	2	26	1,490	1.74%
		Ral	7	17	4	20	1,877	1.07%
	Total		18	46	5	77	4,718	1.63%
Nun II	T-6	Jax	5	38	42	48	5,218	0.92%
		Phx	5	19	59	59	3,256	1.81%
		Ral	8	36	21	34	5,093	0.67%
	Total		18	93	122	141	13,567	1.04%

*Showtimes have been restored for all theaters

 

Greek Wedding T-6 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - missed

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .247x (313k)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .726x (799k)

 - Strays (Total) - .819x (901k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.674x (837k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .487x (356k)

 - No Hard Feelings (Total) - 1.116x (2.34m)

 - Dog - 1.674x (2.11m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.04m

 

The Nun II T-6 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .86x (4.3m)

 - Smile (Total) - .656x (1.31m)

 - Scream VI - .158x (899k)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .595x (1.78m)

 - Candyman - 1.484x (2.82m)

 - Nope - .243x (1.56m)

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-creator-paw-patrol-the-mighty-movie-and-saw-x/