The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Madhuvan]

14 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

$50M at $20 a ticket.is about 2.5M tickets. 

If it's true that there are 40 million Swifties out there willing to buy tickets, the math comes out to $800M with no repeat viewings. 

The thing is of those 40m many likely won't want to go to theater for such event as they might prefer the last one

 

 

[misterpepp]

Haunting in Venice general tix on sale Sep 5.

 

Scratch the Ordinary Angels ticketing date, movie got delayed.

[DisposedData]

Already at 50m? So 100m+ is a given right? It can't possibly be frontloaded enough to miss that right?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, DisposedData said:

Already at 50m? So 100m+ is a given right? It can't possibly be frontloaded enough to miss that right?

 

Yea it's safe to say $100M OW is locked at this point. 

[filmlover]

Showtimes are starting to appear for Exorcist, starts at 5 that Thursday.

[Cap]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Long Term projection for Taylor Swift, @Shawn???

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Honestly I had the same thought 😅

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

10 hours ago, The GOAT said:

$50M at $20 a ticket.is about 2.5M tickets. 

If it's true that there are 40 million Swifties out there willing to buy tickets, the math comes out to $800M with no repeat viewings. 

Those concert ticket queues certainly had bots, some people not from North America, those who only wanted a live experience, and there will be children's prices, but also:

 

*PLF tickets

*Fans who never even tried for concert tickets due to geographical/financial/age constraints, but $13-$20 each to see Taylor at a local theater is no problem

*Casuals curious about the hype

*Repeat viewers

 

The financials are really interesting to contemplate...

 

 

 

Also  there are shows on Halloween, all day it looks like based on my local AMC.

Edited September 2, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[BadOlCatSylvester]

How much do you all want to bet Eras Tour is going to be the biggest movie of this quarter considering how dire the rest of this year's slate looks?

[keysersoze123]

On 8/31/2023 at 9:57 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday - 398934/620232 8323096.26 3374 shows

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (Day 2 PS) - 447800/700162 9441882.00 3996 shows +48866

 

Very good Day 2.

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

How much do you all want to bet Eras Tour is going to be the biggest movie of this quarter considering how dire the rest of this year's slate looks?

My numbers currently have it as the second biggest movie of all time domestically. $50M day one sales with tons of shows being added today and strong post-weekend sales makes me think this is gonna open bananas and still have strong legs to boot. Off a $50M day one I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to say $300M for the opening weekend given Endgame got to $357M off a smaller day one. From there I think a 3x multi is on the table given that opening weekend is going to sell out and burn off demand is gonna be huge. $300M OW and 3x legs gets me $900M domestic. Yes, a $900M domestic movie spawned into existence two days ago. 2023 rules.

[Ledmonkey96]

3 minutes ago, Relevation said:

My numbers currently have it as the second biggest movie of all time domestically. $50M day one sales with tons of shows being added today and strong post-weekend sales makes me think this is gonna open bananas and still have strong legs to boot. Off a $50M day one I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to say $300M for the opening weekend given Endgame got to $357M off a smaller day one. From there I think a 3x multi is on the table given that opening weekend is going to sell out and burn off demand is gonna be huge. $300M OW and 3x legs gets me $900M domestic. Yes, a $900M domestic movie spawned into existence two days ago. 2023 rules.

What? Endgame had 60mil previews and a nearly 97.5mil pure Friday. A 50mil Friday would be 1/3rd of Endgame's Friday since the concert won't have thursday previews rolled in

[HummingLemon]

@Relevation

 

It's a 4-week exclusive and the only showtimes are on weekends, are you sure about $900M?

[HummingLemon]

This year is fucking insane. A film that didn't even exist 2 days ago is suddenly gonna become the biggest movie of the year.

[Relevation]

2 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

@Relevation

 

It's a 4-week exclusive and the only showtimes are on weekends, are you sure about $900M?

It’s a minimum of 4 weeks and it can go for as long as 26 weeks, as shown here

[HummingLemon]

4 minutes ago, Relevation said:

It’s a minimum of 4 weeks and it can go for as long as 26 weeks, as shown here

What about the fact that it's exclusive to weekends?

[vale9001]

9 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

@Relevation

 

It's a 4-week exclusive and the only showtimes are on weekends, are you sure about $900M?

 

It's not only 4 weeks. They wrote It could stay on theaters for a total of 26 weeks (so half a year).

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-43 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	123	11367	16609	5242	31.56%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	5242

 

Day One Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	39.48		13279	13279		0/225	14920/28199	47.09%		28183	18.60%		19.74m
MoM	77.67		6749	6749		0/329	34167/40916	16.49%		21117	24.82%		27.96m
Thor 4	125.98		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	30.90%		36.53m
BP2	161.09		3254	3254		0/279	31690/34980	9.30%		16800	31.20%		45.11m
AM3	259.63		2019	2019		0/231	30346/32365	6.40%		10475	50.04%		45.44m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1706/6150  [27.74% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

58.34% of Avatar 2's final total           [9.92m]

113.43% of Oppenheimer's final total [11.91m]

43.40% of Barbie's final total              [9.68m]

 

====

 

LOL.  Just L-O-L.

 

No great comps here, I think for Day 1s.  But make do with what we have.  The 43 days of pre-sales isn't helping with comps, either.  Chose a couple of other movies to see what the percentage of final sales was, to try to get a grasp on just how big Day 1 really was.  Barbie ain't a good comp simply due to the immense gap between ATPs.  Even Ava 2 comes up short, I think.  Oppenheimer is its own thing locally, as while Barbie had something of a screen crunch, Oppenheimer had a yuge one.

 

Anyway, not gonna draw conclusions on where this is headed except: Lots and lots and lots of money

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-42 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	130	11537	17553	6016	34.27%

 

Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	944
Total Seats Sold Today	774

 

Day Two Comps:    [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE IN COMPS]

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	41.09		1361	14640		0/273	19521/34161	42.86%		28183	21.35%		20.55m
MoM	81.26		654	7403		0/329	33513/40916	18.09%		21117	28.49%		29.26m
Thor 4	127.35		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	35.47%		36.93m
BP2	161.59		469	3723		0/292	32828/36551	10.19%		16800	35.81%		45.25m
AM3	214.78		782	2801		0/231	29564/32365	8.65%		10475	57.43%		37.59m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1866/6150  [30.34% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

66.95% of Avatar 2's final total           [11.38m]

130.19% of Oppenheimer's final total [13.67m]

49.81% of Barbie's final total               [11.11m]

 

===

 

Very nice Day 2, IMO.  AM3 comp did drop, yes.  But that had a funky rollout with a non-standard initial ticket drop time that probs affected D2.  All other comps either rose or were more or less flat.

 

Gonna keep it in Day x for at least a couple more days.  Then will likely go dark on comps for a couple of days before thinking about bringing in BP2 on its first day of sales (T-38), as I don't have anything else remotely suitable.  As usual, play it by ear.

[HummingLemon]

Is $600M domestic possible off a $200M opening?

 

No $200M+ opener has made below $600M domestic

• Avengers: Endgame - $858M/$357M
• Spider-Man: No Way Home - $804M/$260M
• Avengers: Infinity War - $678M/$257M
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $936M/$247M
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $620M/$220M
• Jurassic World - $652M/$208M
• The Avengers - $623M/$207M
• Black Panther - $700M/$202M

[Madhuvan]

You all are overestimating a lot imo

 

This will be very frontloaded. Taylor fans have a habit maximizing the first day

[DisposedData]

28 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

@Relevation

 

It's a 4-week exclusive and the only showtimes are on weekends, are you sure about $900M?

It's 4-26 weeks depending in demand.