The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

57 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Off a $50M day one I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to say $300M for the opening weekend given Endgame got to $357M off a smaller day one

 

I'd love to see the F/St/Su breakdown you have penciled in for this to get to $300m OW.

 

Really.

Edited September 2, 2023 by Porthos

[Relevation]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I'd love to see actual the F/St/Su breakdown you have penciled in for this to get to $300m.

 

Really.

Alright bet

$70M Fri / $115M Sat / $115M Sun

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Bear in mind that without the weekdays it would need <=33% drops on the weekends to get to a 3x multi (actually a little bit higher including Thursday night shows but you get the point.) Good weekend numbers alone won't give this good legs, it needs exceptional drops.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Alright bet

$70M Fri / $115M Sat / $115M Sun

 

Well, that's not a $50m Friday, now is it?  (edited out as I misunderstood the original point — see post below)

 

Still, larger than Endgame previews and a flat Sat-Sun?  Maybe something like 50% to 60% of Endgame admissions due to ATP difference? To be generous let's presume something like a 3:1 adult:child ratio which gave an ATP of $18.25 versus 2019 ATP of $9.16.

 

That's... That's a tall order, IMO.  

Edited September 2, 2023 by Porthos

[Ledmonkey96]

6 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Alright bet

$70M Fri / $115M Sat / $115M Sun

Going from a Friday about 30mil lower than Endgame to a Saturday 5mil higher and a Sunday 25mil higher would be rather impressive. 
Probably still not as impressive as a 70mil Friday with showings starting at 6PM though.

[DisposedData]

21 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

You all are overestimating a lot imo

 

This will be very frontloaded. Taylor fans have a habit maximizing the first day

Is there anything actually indicating this? Her albums have been charting for years.

[Porthos]

Okay, wait a minute.  @Relevation was talking about day 1 of pre-sales , not projected Friday/preview numbers.

 

Fair enough.

 

I will... Wait and see for evidence of a 70m Fri before commenting further on their logic.

Edited September 2, 2023 by Porthos

[Relevation]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, that's not a $50m Friday, now is it?  Still, larger than Endgame previews and a flat Sat-Sun?  Maybe something like 50% to 60% of Endgame admissions due to ATP difference? To be generous let's presume something like a 3:1 adult:child ratio which gave an ATP of $18.25 versus 2019 ATP of $9.16.

 

That's... That's a tall order, IMO.  

My original post wasn’t saying it would do $50M Fri, it was saying that the TS movie did $50M in total sales in its first 24 hrs. 
 

But to elaborate on my weekend split, here’s how we get to the numbers I threw out. I took a quick glance my local market to see showtimes, and I count 70 showtimes off 10 theaters for Friday including smaller and larger theaters. So, let’s average that off and say the average theater can fit 7 showtimes for TS for Friday.
 

Now for ATP, I do think you’re underestimating the ATP since 
 

A - you neglected to factor in the PLF ticket price bump where tickets are going for like $22-23 and

B - There is not gonna be a full 25% under 12 for this movie. Endgame had 18% families, including parents. Now I recognize that prob skewed a bit older but still, 25% is huge. I’d personally wager around like 15% under 12. 
 

Using my local market as a comp again, those 70 showtimes were 78.57% standard and 21.43% PLF. If we assume all parents are taking their kids to regular standard, then you’re looking at a split of 15% child price, 63% standard price, and 21% PLF price assuming Friday is filled to capacity (which at some theaters in this 10 theater sample I’m using has already happened after two days). So using a flat $22 price for all PLF shows, that math gets me an ATP of $19.12. So if we run with an average auditorium size of 150 seats, theeeeen

 

150 seats * 7 showings = 1,050 admissions per theater 

1,050 admissions * $19.12 ATP = $20,076 per theater average

$20,076 * 4000 locations results in a Friday gross of $80,304,000 if all showings are filled to capacity. So from there, I don’t think $70M is that hard. 
 

Ill do my shpeel for SAT and SUN later, this took longer than I expected lol

[Hilts]

Expend4bles and The Creator showtimes also appearing, both looking like 6pm start for their respective Thursday previews.

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, Relevation said:

My original post wasn’t saying it would do $50M Fri, it was saying that the TS movie did $50M in total sales in its first 24 hrs. 

 

Yes, I realize that.  See my edit and later post.

 

21 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Now for ATP, I do think you’re underestimating the ATP since 
 

A - you neglected to factor in the PLF ticket price bump where tickets are going for like $22-23 and

 

No, it's not that I neglected... it's that I was under the impression that all tickets were either $13.13 for kids/seniors and $19.89 for adults.  I was unaware that theaters were being allowed to enforce PLF upcharge.  But as I check now, I see you're right about that.

 

As for the rest?  As I said, "We'll see."

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, DisposedData said:

It's 4-26 weeks depending in demand.

If the demand It's still even 2-3M for weekend with fans coming back every few weeks there Is no reason for not making all the 26 weeks. 

[Mulder]

The Swift concert movie will be big but I definitely think there will be a fan rush to it. 

[vale9001]

i'm reading to much crazy numbers, right now i would say 130-140M dollars are a good prediction. It's not gonna have the late walks up of any "regular" movie. 

 

to see if it can really became also a walked up event let's wait for the very few days before the release.

Swift definitely knows how to create a pop event so let's see what she's gonna do in the last days. 

 

imo it's more interesting if this could became a kind of event people will watch again and again for weeks, so if it's coming for very long legs in the long run, than in the first weekend. 

 

I mean something like 120M first weekend, than 70 second, 50 third, 35 forth could me more fun to watch than 200M first weekend and than being retired after 3 weekends. 

Edited September 2, 2023 by vale9001

[Arlborn]

9 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

Its biggest ever with $50M. I estimated Endgame at $45M but Deadline saying higher.

Though, those were mostly for  weekend, here sales beyond weekend are huge as well.

I’m am so, so curious about sales for the second weekend.

 

Every fan (I’m not a fan but my best friend is a huge Swiftie who wants me to keep her fully updated on its BO potential ) keeps saying Taylor knows how to market things like this unbelievably well. I’m just thinking that once the first weekend posts huge numbers and gets headlines everywhere, she could simply use it to sell it as the must-see event of the year(excluding the actual tour that is) and get everyone to go on the second weekend to see what the fuss is about.

 

People aren’t believing me when I say we might get a couple of 100M+ weekends out of it, but look at that, sales are already huge beyond the first weekend. You better start believing.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding	T-6	Jax	5	13	-1	31	1,351	2.29%
		Phx	6	16	2	26	1,490	1.74%
		Ral	7	17	4	20	1,877	1.07%
	Total		18	46	5	77	4,718	1.63%
Nun II	T-6	Jax	5	38	42	48	5,218	0.92%
		Phx	5	19	59	59	3,256	1.81%
		Ral	8	36	21	34	5,093	0.67%
	Total		18	93	122	141	13,567	1.04%

*Showtimes have been restored for all theaters

 

Greek Wedding T-6 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - missed

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .247x (313k)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .726x (799k)

 - Strays (Total) - .819x (901k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.674x (837k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .487x (356k)

 - No Hard Feelings (Total) - 1.116x (2.34m)

 - Dog - 1.674x (2.11m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.04m

 

The Nun II T-6 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .86x (4.3m)

 - Smile (Total) - .656x (1.31m)

 - Scream VI - .158x (899k)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .595x (1.78m)

 - Candyman - 1.484x (2.82m)

 - Nope - .243x (1.56m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding	T-5	Jax	5	13	4	35	1,351	2.59%
		Phx	6	16	0	26	1,490	1.74%
		Ral	7	17	5	25	1,877	1.33%
	Total		18	46	9	86	4,718	1.82%
Nun II	T-5	Jax	5	38	17	65	5,218	1.25%
		Phx	5	19	8	67	3,256	2.06%
		Ral	8	36	7	41	5,093	0.81%
	Total		18	93	32	173	13,567	1.28%

 

Greek Wedding T-5 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - .528x (528k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .229x (290k)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .573x (631k)

 - Strays (Total) - .86x (946k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.755x (878k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .503x (367k)

 - No Hard Feelings (Total) - .735x (1.54m)

 - Dog - missed

 - Marry Me - missed

 - West Side Story - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 880k

 

The Nun II T-5 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .906x (4.53m)

 - Smile (Total) - missed

 - Scream VI - .178x (1.01m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .66x (1.98m)

 - Candyman - 1.648x (3.13m)

 - Nope - .275x (1.76m)

[TalismanRing]

4 hours ago, Relevation said:

150 seats * 7 showings = 1,050 admissions per theater 

1,050 admissions * $19.12 ATP = $20,076 per theater average

$20,076 * 4000 locations results in a Friday gross of $80,304,000 if all showings are filled to capacity. So from there, I don’t think $70M is that hard. 
 

Ill do my shpeel for SAT and SUN later, this took longer than I expected lol

 

ENDGAME'S Friday was $97+m

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-42	Jax	6	53	1,077	3,432	9,190	37.34%
		Phx	6	53	3,676	6,584	9,353	70.39%
		Ral	8	63	1,469	3,999	8,235	48.56%
	Total		20	169	6,222	14,015	26,778	52.34%

 

Started this run at around 25 hrs.

 

Taylor Swift first day comps

 - NWH - .993x (49.67m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - 2.335x (84m)

 - Batman - 4.308x (93.06m)

 - Every other movie - 120m+

 

Okay, okay, settle down.  Already at 52% capacity with most shows down to handicap seating.  Obviously the best start imaginable, but it's not possible to compare to movies with 4x+ the number of shows. 

 

Comps against T-0 sales

 - Super Mario - 1.296x (41.08m)

 - Space Jam - 3.162x (41.42m)

 - Barbie - 1.473x (31.23m)

 - Paw Patrol - 9.982x (45.15m)

 - My Hero Academia - 8.63x (24.9m)

 - Demon Slayer - 5.17x (21.82m)

 

If I had to guess right now, I'd say this is looking at around 25m OD.  If it was a full day of shows I would go higher, but capacity is very tight.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-41	Jax	6	64	301	3,733	10,330	36.14%
		Phx	6	67	413	6,997	11,445	61.14%
		Ral	8	66	333	4,332	8,660	50.02%
	Total		20	197	1,047	15,062	30,435	49.49%

 

Added 28 shows since yesterday and another 1k seats sold.  

 

Comps against T-0 sales

 - Super Mario - 1.393x (44.14m)

 - Space Jam - 3.398x (44.51m)

 - Barbie - 1.583x (33.56m)

 - Paw Patrol - 10.73x (48.53m)

 - My Hero Academia - 9.28x (26.76m)

 - Demon Slayer - 5.56x (23.45m)

 

Comps against T-1 hr sales

 - NWH - .434x (21.72m)

 - Dr Strange - .653x (23.5m)

 - BP2 - .852x (23.85m)

 - Thor 4 - .92x (26.68m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.564x (27.37m)

 

This could be pretty representative of where the final could land, but I'll bump my prediction up to 30m.  While I do think sales will keep rising, we're already at 50% full.  People will have to make a choice between a 10pm+ show or waiting for the next day.  Saturday should be well above Friday in gross though with the full day of shows.  

[VanillaSkies]

In regards to ATP for Eras Tour, at AMC Lincoln Square for example, the IMAX tickets are going for $28.89 for an adult and $22.13 for a child. Dolby is going for $29.89 for an adult and $23.13 for a child. These showtimes are selling out like mad as well. I would not be shocked to see an ATP above $20.

Edited September 2, 2023 by VanillaSkies

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

I could see a $60M Friday. Endgame did $60M on Thursday and previews started at 5PM IIRC, not much earlier than what this is doing on Friday. ATP will probably be 70-80% higher overall so it could hit $60M with basically half the ticket sales and that seems doable based on current trends. FWIW, I paid $14.99 per ticket for IMAX at my AMC for Endgame and I just paid $25.89 for the same exact IMAX for Eras Tour.

 

As for a $300M OW or $900M DOM total, I mean, I’d love to see it but that seems overly implausible. 

[vale9001]

18 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

In regards to ATP for Eras Tour, at AMC Lincoln Square for example, the IMAX tickets are going for $28.89 for an adult and $22.13 for a child. Dolby is going for $29.89 for an adult and $23.13 for a child. These showtimes are selling out like mad as well. I would not be shocked to see an ATP above $20.

 

atp will be definitely over 20 dollars. If children tickets are until 13 years old i don't think  they're gonna be like more than the 20% of all the tickets. And seniors probably not even 5%. 75-80% of the total it's gonna be 15-50 years. 

Edited September 2, 2023 by vale9001