The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TwoMisfits]

So, the animated battle is gonna go down to the wire.  No real faith in Wish at my locals...and no real faith in Trolls 3, either.  And Cinemark tends to be the more family oriented of the MTCs.

 

Trolls 3 got identical sets to Wish today - at the PLF, it only gets ONE screen (with a 3d showing thrown in that number) and at the non-PLF, it gets 2 screens (with a tossed in 3d showing in that number).  No PLF.

[M37]

2 hours ago, Giorno said:

@M37have you started the lower and upper bound table for the marvels or is it too early to make any guess work on that?

I don’t usually until at least T-21 because of the differing lengths of presale windows 

[YM!]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, the animated battle is gonna go down to the wire.  No real faith in Wish at my locals...and no real faith in Trolls 3, either.  And Cinemark tends to be the more family oriented of the MTCs.

 

Trolls 3 got identical sets to Wish today - at the PLF, it only gets ONE screen (with a 3d showing thrown in that number) and at the non-PLF, it gets 2 screens (with a tossed in 3d showing in that number).  No PLF.

Think both could get more showings in the weeks leading up to release date. Especially because both are still very early. What is the right number of screens for an animated movie to reach 50m OW or five day?

[el sid]

KotFM, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 132 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 53 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 9 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 18 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 17 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 443 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 552 (10 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.224.

Comps (all films counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): Dune (the worst comp first, 12.4M true Friday) had 2.621 sold tickets,
Crawdads (5M) had 87,
Don't Worry Darling (6.3M) had 450

and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (11.1M) had 837 sold tickets = x1.46 = 16.2M true Friday for KotFM.

 

There's one little problem, namly that the sales in LA and San Francisco are way better than elsewhere. OUaTiH also had its best sales in California but overall the sales in the different AMCs were more even – e.g. it was doing better in the AMCs in Michigan and Arizona.
But overall the presales for KotFM are very good for a Monday of the release week.

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-24):

556 tickets sold (10 locs)/+33 YD

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, Giorno said:

The Marvels (D-24):

556 tickets sold (10 locs)/+33 YD

Is it specific city or a chain?

[el sid]

And e.g. for some variety:

After Death, counted for Thursday, October 26, had today 39 sold tickets.
Comp: Overcomer finally had 91 sold tickets.

And for Friday, October 27, it had today 104 sold tickets. Best presales in the AMCs in Michigan (no wonder) and LA.
Comps: Overcomer (8.1M OW) finally had 34 sold tickets

and Father Stu (5.4M OW) had with 2 days left 31 sold tickets (for Good Friday back then).

So far, nice numbers but several films in recent months with a similar target audience had not the best jumps in their release weeks. So let's see.

Edited October 16, 2023 by el sid

[Giorno]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Is it specific city or a chain?

Houston Area AMC's

[misterpepp]

Napoleon tix on sale Nov 6

[Tinalera]

4 hours ago, vafrow said:

Still no FNAF tickets for sale in Canada yet. Unless they do it in the next 24 hours, it's going to be just normal release, with Thursday previews being available sometime tomorrow evening. Only bigger recent film that's got this treatment with no advance sales was Saw X, which obviously opened much lower. 

 

Wish still isn't available either, despite today being that 100 year anniver date.

 

 

I definitely thought FNAF would get a bigger window for Canada dates for presales. I havent figured out why the decisions being made as they are (never have really with them LOL). Maybe they (whoever "THEY" are) felt that Canada wasnt as a big a market? Just pure speculation on my part. Only thing I can think of is MAYBE they were thinking Marvels was going to have a bigger presale and so wanted to hedge their bets as to their inventory. Again, pure speculation on my part.

[vafrow]

1 minute ago, Tinalera said:

I definitely thought FNAF would get a bigger window for Canada dates for presales. I havent figured out why the decisions being made as they are (never have really with them LOL). Maybe they (whoever "THEY" are) felt that Canada wasnt as a big a market? Just pure speculation on my part. Only thing I can think of is MAYBE they were thinking Marvels was going to have a bigger presale and so wanted to hedge their bets as to their inventory. Again, pure speculation on my part.

 

Wish also not released yet is an odd one as well.

 

We can't call two data points a trend, as Canada has always been very different for timing on these things. But it feels odd.

 

I probably should do a better job of documenting which movies get different sale dates in Canada compared to the US and how much they're delayed. It would be interesting to see if there's any patterns.

[Hilts]

On 10/15/2023 at 9:04 PM, Hilts said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-8	25	99	129	2,123	17,347	12.24%	6.47%
T-7	25	100	183	2,306	17,929	12.86%	8.62%
T-6	25	100	162	2,468	17,929	13.77%	7.03%
T-5	25	100	118	2,586	17,929	14.42%	4.78%
T-4	25	100	283	2,869	17,929	16.00%	10.94%
MTC1	8	32	+87	1,091	5,897	18.50%	8.67%
MTC2	4	18	+60	538	3,132	17.18%	12.55%
MTC3	3	26	+74	759	5,060	15.00%	10.80%
Other	10	24	+62	481	3,840	12.53%	14.80%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.306x	=	$13.72m
Barbie					0.622x	=	$13.81m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.990x	=	$14.33m
Sound of Freedom					1.209x	=	$6.28m

 

Very good day locally. Picking up the slack from the slower sales elsewhere 🙂

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	25	100	183	2,306	17,929	12.86%	8.62%
T-6	25	100	162	2,468	17,929	13.77%	7.03%
T-5	25	100	118	2,586	17,929	14.42%	4.78%
T-4	25	100	283	2,869	17,929	16.00%	10.94%
T-3	25	100	361	3,230	17,929	18.02%	12.58%
MTC1	8	32	+110	1,201	5,897	20.37%	10.08%
MTC2	4	18	+61	599	3,132	19.13%	11.34%
MTC3	3	26	+104	863	5,060	17.06%	13.70%
Other	10	24	+86	567	3,840	14.77%	17.88%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.278x	=	$13.42m
Barbie					0.599x	=	$13.30m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.996x	=	$14.37m
Sound of Freedom					1.182x	=	$6.15m

[Hilts]

On 10/15/2023 at 9:08 PM, Hilts said:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-15	20	95	46	940	14,252	6.60%	5.15%
T-14	20	95	39	979	14,252	6.87%	4.15%
T-13	20	95	71	1,050	14,252	7.37%	7.25%
T-12	20	95	54	1,104	14,252	7.75%	5.14%
T-11	20	95	65	1,169	14,252	8.20%	5.89%
MTC1	7	21	+21	489	2,213	22.10%	4.49%
MTC2	4	38	+14	245	5,541	4.42%	6.06%
MTC3	3	20	+18	313	4,277	7.32%	6.10%
Other	6	16	+12	122	2,221	5.49%	10.91%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.621x	=	$14.27m
Barbie					0.565x	=	$12.54m
Haunted Mansion					7.306x	=	$22.65m
Oppenheimer					1.048x	=	$11.01m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.175x	=	$8.46m

 

Haunted Mansion picks up starting tomorrow so should see it fall steadily to more reasonable level.

 

Not much to say, still chugging along at a steady pace.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-14	20	95	39	979	14,252	6.87%	4.15%
T-13	20	95	71	1,050	14,252	7.37%	7.25%
T-12	20	95	54	1,104	14,252	7.75%	5.14%
T-11	20	95	65	1,169	14,252	8.20%	5.89%
T-10	20	95	52	1,221	14,252	8.57%	4.45%
MTC1	7	21	+17	506	2,213	22.86%	3.48%
MTC2	4	38	+13	258	5,541	4.66%	5.31%
MTC3	3	20	+15	328	4,277	7.67%	4.79%
Other	6	16	+7	129	2,221	5.81%	5.74%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.626x	=	$14.31m
Barbie					0.535x	=	$11.87m
Haunted Mansion					6.709x	=	$20.80m
Oppenheimer					1.023x	=	$10.75m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.184x	=	$8.53m

[Hilts]

On 10/15/2023 at 9:15 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-29	21	173	70	328	32,650	1.00%	27.13%
T-28	21	173	45	373	32,650	1.14%	13.72%
T-27	21	173	15	388	32,650	1.19%	4.02%
T-26	21	173	10	398	32,650	1.22%	2.58%
T-25	21	173	21	419	32,650	1.28%	5.28%
MTC1	8	59	+18	233	10,485	2.22%	8.37%
MTC2	4	48	+3	46	8,204	0.56%	6.98%
MTC3	3	39	0	123	8,077	1.52%	0.00%
Other	6	27	0	17	5,884	0.29%	0.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.748x	=	$5.39m
Barbie					0.493x	=	$10.94m
Oppenheimer					0.694x	=	$7.28m
Five Nights at Freddy's					2.149x

 

FNaF only had 1 day of sales at this point which is why Marvels is ahead. At current rate it will be behind in 2 days time.

 

No proper update for Wish today - only had 1 ticket refunded in the last day (none sold) 😢

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-28	21	173	45	373	32,650	1.14%	13.72%
T-27	21	173	15	388	32,650	1.19%	4.02%
T-26	21	173	10	398	32,650	1.22%	2.58%
T-25	21	173	21	419	32,650	1.28%	5.28%
T-24	21	173	21	440	32,650	1.35%	5.01%
MTC1	8	59	+8	241	10,485	2.30%	3.43%
MTC2	4	48	+3	49	8,204	0.60%	6.52%
MTC3	3	39	+2	125	8,077	1.55%	1.63%
Other	6	27	+8	25	5,884	0.42%	47.06%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.742x	=	$5.34m
Barbie					0.495x	=	$10.99m
Oppenheimer					0.704x	=	$7.39m
Five Nights at Freddy's					1.253x

[Hilts]

On 10/14/2023 at 9:54 PM, Hilts said:

Wish							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm

 

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-38	17	76	13	13	12,314	0.11%

 

MTC1	7	28		13	3,970	0.33%
MTC2	4	23		0	3,687	0.00%
MTC3	3	14		0	2,590	0.00%
Other	3	11		0	2,067	0.00%

 

Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.217x	=	$0.67m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.382x	=	$1.47m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.081x	=	$0.59m

 

These are after at least first full day of sales. Tricky to say this far out and I only have Indy and Oppy for daily comps for a while so may only provide periodic updates until we get a bit closer. Will be able to look at Trolls in a few days though. TMNT should be doubly useful being a Tuesday release too as well as younger skewing but we shall see.

 

Wish							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-38	17	76	13	13	12,314	0.11%	-
T-37	17	76	-1	12	12,314	0.10%	-7.69%
T-36	19	82	12	24	12,992	0.18%	100.00%

 

All sales still at MTC1 only so far.

 

As I said only Indy and Oppy comps this far out which both point to <$1m right now.

 

Hopefully we see more traction now Disney remembered it's coming out.

Edited October 17, 2023 by Hilts

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/13/2023 at 3:51 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

200

1104

18.12%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

114

279

40.86%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1062	57	10927	9.72%	13	66

 

1.184

The Flash T-13

11.48M

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

218

1103

19.76%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

129

948

13.61%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1214	152	12087	10.04%	13	75

 

0.484	Barbie T-10	10.80M
1.193	The Flash T-10	11.57M
0.644	AtSV T-10	11.18M

1.955

Black Adam T-10

14.86M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/13/2023 at 3:52 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-13 Thursday

95 Showings

3857

+211

12041

ATP:

15.75

1.679

The Flash T-13

16.29M

 

T-14 Friday

112 Showings

3300

+158

14479

ATP:

14.89

2.140

The Flash T-14

31.67M

 

T-15 Saturday

106 Showings

2223

+147

12844

ATP:

14.56

1.614

The Flash T-15

25.35M

 

T-16 Sunday

97 Showings

981

+53

12034

ATP:

13.67

1.694

The Flash T-16

26.26M

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

T-10 Thursday

96 Showings

4208

+351

12156

ATP:

15.62

1.600	The Flash T-10	15.52M
0.839	AtSV T-10	14.56M

2.886

Black Adam T-10

21.93M

 

T-11 Friday

116 Showings

3941

+641

15093

ATP:

14.75

2.170	The Flash T-11	32.12M
0.865	AtSV T-11	29.83M

3.225

Black Adam T-11

61.57M

 

T-12 Saturday

111 Showings

2774

+551

13653

ATP:

14.36

1.688	The Flash T-12	26.51M
0.610	AtSV T-12	22.80M

2.193

Black Adam T-12

51.99M

 

T-13 Sunday

100 Showings

1239

+258

12536

ATP:

13.35

1.760	The Flash T-13	27.28M
0.453	AtSV T-13	14.15M

2.816

Black Adam T-13

46.75M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/13/2023 at 3:54 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-13 Thursday

89 Showings

1416

+87

12114

1.341

The Flash T-13

13.01M

 

T-14 Friday

129 Showings

3189

+245

16910

5.262

The Flash T-14

77.88M

 

T-15 Saturday

131 Showings

968

+128

17201

2.355

The Flash T-15

36.98M

 

T-16 Sunday

121 Showings

259

+38

15953

1.480

The Flash T-16

22.94M

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment [+3 days of sales]

T-10 Thursday

91 Showings

1670

+254

12182

0.566	Barbie T-10	12.62M
1.384	The Flash T-10	13.42M
1.097	AtSV T-10	19.02M

 

T-11 Friday

132 Showings

3810

+621

17027

1.075	Barbie T-11	51.81M
5.306	The Flash T-11	78.53M
2.601	AtSV T-11	89.72M

 

T-12 Saturday

134 Showings

1336

+368

17095

0.772	Barbie T-12	36.92M
2.381	The Flash T-12	37.39M
1.724	AtSV T-12	64.47M

 

T-13 Sunday

124 Showings

370

+111

16655

0.493	Barbie T-13	21.53M
1.705	The Flash T-13	26.43M
1.182	AtSV T-13	36.94M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/13/2023 at 3:55 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

147

3221

4.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

122

2202

5.54%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
615	22	23416	2.63%	12	118

 

0.946

The Flash Day 4

9.18M

0.684

Eternals Day 4

6.50M

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

172

3221

5.34%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

125

2202

5.68%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
656	41	26269	2.50%	13	137

 

1.184

Indiana Jones 5 T-24

8.53M

0.365

Guardians 3 T-24

6.38M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/13/2023 at 3:56 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-27 Thursday

168 Showings

2358

+154

25199

ATP:

17.43

1.323

The Flash Day 4

12.84M

 

T-28 Friday

225 Showings

1676

+156

35187

ATP:

17.08

1.663

The Flash Day 4

24.61M

 

T-29 Saturday

233 Showings

1453

+149

36215

ATP:

16.03

1.631

The Flash Day 4

25.60M

 

T-30 Sunday

218 Showings

532

+52

33942

ATP:

15.07

1.466

The Flash Day 4

22.72M

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

T-24 Thursday

168 Showings

2686

+328

25199

ATP:

17.35

0.720

Indiana Jones 5 T-24

5.18M

0.363

Guardians 3 T-24

6.35M

 

T-25 Friday

225 Showings

1953

+277

35187

ATP:

17.14

0.654

Indiana Jones 5 T-25

10.98M

0.366

Guardians 3 T-25

11.19M

 

T-26 Saturday

233 Showings

1795

+342

36215

ATP:

15.85

0.606

Indiana Jones 5 T-26

11.26M

0.295

Guardians 3 T-26

11.46M

 

T-27 Sunday

218 Showings

699

+167

33942

ATP:

15.22

0.478

Indiana Jones 5 T-27

8.65M

0.243

Guardians 3 T-27

7.65M