The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Tinalera]

Five Nights At Freddys 

Thurs Oct 26

Vancouver Canada

 

Vancouv	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	3	15	12	185	2632	0.0045

 

Only Thursdays showing for FNAF (ONE has a Friday night, but Id rather wait till Friday nights are available for all or at least most of my theatres, little hesitant of just including ONE theatre)

[TwoMisfits]

16 minutes ago, YM! said:

Surprised Trolls tracking is pretty weak, considering the Quorum data was very good.

 

It's single screen set for now at small and midsize theaters with 3 other openers.  It's hard to have a really high open when you get single screened.  Til that changes (like FNAF screen allocation got "corrected" midway through presales and again this week), tracking won't change.  Expect close to the same for Wish the following week.

Edited October 19, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[TheFlatLannister]

44 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

What would Oppy's comp get you exactly?

$2.13m Oppy

$2.07m Saw X

[M37]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Definitely agree, this will be a weekend movie, but in the back of my mind is also the thought that film nerds and bros can be a frontloaded-ish bunch. What kind of IM are you thinking?

This Fall, every single film has gotten to a 3x Thu-->Fri, Creator just barely making it from its True Thursday, and have a difficult time seeing KOTFM being that "film nerd/bro" Thursday heavy. The only Fall film that hasn't managed a 10x IM overall was Saw X, but by way of a basically flat Fri-->Sat , which would be pretty unlikely here

 

But with all that said, would be hesitant to project too much above that IM value. Don't think a $30M OW is quite "L word" here, but if Thursday does manage to scrape and claw its way to $3M, then I certainly wouldn't bet against it

[keysersoze123]

I did not post update yesterday night. But I just got data from MTC1 for Flower moon and pace was meh. It sold tad less than tickets yesterday. I think TMobile discount played a factor apart from huge run time, lack of promotion as well and on top of it no review boost as we had them for ever. Not sure putting it out that far form release helped the movie. 

 

Plus with MTC2(could not get T-1 as it was failing) looking to under perform, I am not convinced its even hitting 3m or barely cross that number. 

 

Previews - 41321/344339 719155.25 2229 shows

Friday - 46141/507074 785424.27 3340 shows

 

Friday number does not scream huge IM. I hope it hits 30m but wont be surprised by mid to high 20s OW as well.   

[TheFlatLannister]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I did not post update yesterday night. But I just got data from MTC1 for Flower moon and pace was meh. It sold tad less than tickets yesterday. I think TMobile discount played a factor apart from huge run time, lack of promotion as well and on top of it no review boost as we had them for ever. Not sure putting it out that far form release helped the movie. 

 

Plus with MTC2(could not get T-1 as it was failing) looking to under perform, I am not convinced its even hitting 3m or barely cross that number. 

 

Previews - 41321/344339 719155.25 2229 shows

Friday - 46141/507074 785424.27 3340 shows

 

Friday number does not scream huge IM. I hope it hits 30m but wont be surprised by mid to high 20s OW as well.   

Yeah im not convinced it hits $3m previews either. More data just confirms this

Edited October 19, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0* Final update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
168	1067	28913	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:30PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

200

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.465x) of Mi7 ~$3.25M Previews

(0.839x) of Equalizer 3~$3.19M Previews

 

COMPS: 3.22M 

 

This was a bad finish. It was so bad, I had to change comps because the previous two comps were in the low $2m😬

 

Guess i'll go $3.2m, but under $3m seems possible imo 

 

*A quick addendum* 

added old comps back

 

(0.465x) of Mi7  $3.25M Previews

(0.839x) of Equalizer 3 $3.19M Previews

(1.037x) of Saw X $2.07M Previews

(0.203x) of Oppenheimer $2.13M Previews

 

COMPS: 2.66M 

I don't think I'm on the $3m train anymore. Put me down for $2.7m +/- $0.2m

[ZeeSoh]

Moderation

 

Please keep discussions here on topic regards to tracking. This is not The Marvels thread. Extended discussions regarding its OW and reception can be had in its dedicated thread. This has been said multiple times before, now warnings will follow. 

[TwoMisfits]

26 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

$2.13m Oppy

$2.07m Saw X

 

So, if we give some OK overperformance, $2.4M or so seems right?  If we stick with Oppy as the most on point...

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

I do think that thursday isn't really an ideal time to see a 3.5 hour film, even though the movie is awesome and as many reviews have accurately stated, the length isn't really felt. I don't know if there ever would have been a review "bump" beyond what we currently are seeing, even if it hadn't premiered so long ago at Cannes. 

 

Is there a huge risk in it not making at least 20 million this weekend? That would be extremely disappointing, I'm still hoping it makes over 30. definitely over 25. 

 

Anyway, disappointing if it was tracking for 3 previews and is closer to 2. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/18/2023 at 3:12 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

253

1104

22.92%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

158

948

16.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1403	101	12352	11.36%	13	76

 

0.445	Barbie T-8	9.92M
1.243	The Flash T-8	12.05M
0.670	AtSV T-8	11.62M

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

275

1100

25.00%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

172

948

18.14%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1502	99	13085	11.48%	13	78

 

0.429	Barbie T-7	9.56M
1.257	The Flash T-7	12.19M
0.666	AtSV T-7	11.56M

1.816

Black Adam T-7

13.80M

[CJohn]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

new BOP LRF dropped: 

 

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
10/27/2023	After Death					Angel Studios
10/27/2023	Five Nights at Freddy’s	$56,000,000 – $80,000,000	+43%	$90,000,000 – $172,000,000	+23%	Universal Pictures / Blumhouse
10/27/2023	Freelance					Relativity Media
10/27/2023	Inspector Sun					Viva Pictures
10/27/2023	Sight					Briarcliff Entertainment
11/3/2023	The Marsh King’s Daughter					STX / Lionsgate / Roadside Attractions
11/3/2023	Priscilla	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000		$10,000,000 – $27,000,000		A24
11/3/2023	What Happens Later					Bleecker Street
11/10/2023	The Holdovers (Wide Expansion; LA+NY Oct. 27, Limited Nov. 3)					Focus Features
11/10/2023	The Marvels	$50,000,000 – $75,000,000	-2%	$121,000,000 – $189,000,000	-2%	Disney / Marvel Studios
11/10/2023	Journey to Bethlehem	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000		$15,000,000 – $38,000,000		Sony / AFFIRM Films
11/17/2023	The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes	$35,000,000 – $45,000,000		$90,000,000 – $142,000,000		Lionsgate
11/17/2023	Next Goal Wins					Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/17/2023	Thanksgiving	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$22,000,000 – $40,000,000		Sony / TriStar Pictures
11/17/2023	Trolls Band Together	$21,000,000 – $31,000,000		$68,000,000 – $113,000,000		Universal Pictures

November is gonna be horrific.

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/18/2023 at 3:14 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-8 Thursday

115 Showings

4529

+156

14821

ATP:

15.50

1.538	The Flash T-8	14.92M
0.811	AtSV T-8	14.07M

 

T-9 Friday

129 Showings

4439

+265

17071

ATP:

14.63

2.136	The Flash T-9	31.62M
0.852	AtSV T-9	29.41M

 

T-10 Saturday

121 Showings

3109

+148

15262

ATP:

14.24

1.651	The Flash T-10	25.92M
0.620	AtSV T-10	23.20M

 

T-11 Sunday

109 Showings

1446

+151

14034

ATP:

13.21

1.742	The Flash T-11	27.00M
0.461	AtSV T-11	14.40M

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-7 Thursday

116 Showings

4728

+199

14875

ATP:

15.42

1.416	The Flash T-7	13.74M
0.753	AtSV T-7	13.06M

2.413

Black Adam T-7

18.34M

 

T-8 Friday

136 Showings

4724

+285

17765

ATP:

14.59

2.154	The Flash T-8	31.88M
0.841	AtSV T-8	29.02M

2.984

Black Adam T-8

56.97M

 

T-9 Saturday

130 Showings

3307

+198

16377

ATP:

14.21

1.633	The Flash T-9	25.64M
0.624	AtSV T-9	23.35M

2.079

Black Adam T-9

49.28M

 

T-10 Sunday

117 Showings

1550

+104

14916

ATP:

13.17

1.638	The Flash T-10	25.40M
0.465	AtSV T-10	14.55M

2.834

Black Adam T-10

47.05M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/18/2023 at 3:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-8 Thursday

122 Showings

1962

+135

17808

0.498	Barbie T-8	11.10M
1.426	The Flash T-8	13.83M
1.055	AtSV T-8	18.30M

 

T-9 Friday

151 Showings

4403

+277

21384

0.858	Barbie T-9	41.37M
5.061	The Flash T-9	74.90M
2.500	AtSV T-9	86.26M

 

T-10 Saturday

153 Showings

1626

+144

21657

0.645	Barbie T-10	30.86M
2.565	The Flash T-10	40.27M
1.730	AtSV T-10	64.69M

 

T-11 Sunday

142 Showings

436

+41

19853

0.377	Barbie T-11	16.47M
1.552	The Flash T-11	24.05M
1.228	AtSV T-11	38.38M

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-7 Thursday

122 Showings

2129

+167

17805

0.485	Barbie T-7	10.81M
1.460	The Flash T-7	14.16M
1.040	AtSV T-7	18.04M

 

T-8 Friday

151 Showings

4769

+366

21399

0.779	Barbie T-8	37.54M
5.036	The Flash T-8	74.53M
2.387	AtSV T-8	82.35M

 

T-9 Saturday

153 Showings

1818

+192

21662

0.602	Barbie T-9	28.77M
2.623	The Flash T-9	41.19M
1.710	AtSV T-9	63.96M

 

T-10 Sunday

142 Showings

482

+46

19853

0.325	Barbie T-10	14.21M
1.479	The Flash T-10	22.92M
1.245	AtSV T-10	38.92M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/18/2023 at 3:18 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

191

3221

5.93%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

133

2202

6.04%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
724	29	26777	2.70%	13	137

 

1.257

Indiana Jones 5 T-22

9.05M

 

Gonna add The Flash and Eternals back starting tomorrow

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

198

3221

6.15%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

142

2202

6.45%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
751	27	26636	2.82%	13	138

 

1.245	Indiana Jones 5 T-21	8.97M
1.286	The Flash T-21	12.47M

0.835

Eternals T-21

7.94M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/18/2023 at 3:20 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-22 Thursday

168 Showings

2863

+74

25199

ATP:

17.35

0.753

Indiana Jones 5 T-22

5.42M

 

T-23 Friday

225 Showings

2167

+112

35187

ATP:

17.17

0.696

Indiana Jones 5 T-23

11.69M

 

T-24 Saturday

233 Showings

1974

+83

36215

ATP:

15.93

0.635

Indiana Jones 5 T-24

11.80M

 

T-25 Sunday

218 Showings

808

+59

33942

ATP:

15.23

0.525

Indiana Jones 5 T-25

9.51M

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-21 Thursday

168 Showings

2931

+68

25196

ATP:

17.33

0.763	Indiana Jones 5 T-21	5.49M
1.790	The Flash T-21	17.37M

1.034

Eternals T-21

9.83M

 

T-22 Friday

225 Showings

2229

+62

35182

ATP:

17.24

0.694	Indiana Jones 5 T-22	11.67M
2.366	The Flash T-22	35.02M

1.028

Eternals T-22

21.93M

 

T-23 Saturday

233 Showings

2075

+101

36214

ATP:

15.90

0.656	Indiana Jones 5 T-23	12.18M
2.543	The Flash T-23	39.92M

0.958

Eternals T-23

23.11M

 

T-24 Sunday

218 Showings

869

+61

33937

ATP:

15.33

0.549	Indiana Jones 5 T-24	9.94M
2.563	The Flash T-24	39.73M

0.774

Eternals T-24

12.64M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/18/2023 at 3:21 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-22 Thursday

158 Showings

789

+12

25520

0.999

Indiana Jones 5 T-22

7.19M

 

T-23 Friday

242 Showings

365

+17

39743

1.132

Indiana Jones 5 T-23

19.02M

 

T-24 Saturday

252 Showings

303

+12

40526

1.685

Indiana Jones 5 T-24

31.30M

 

T-25 Sunday

241 Showings

134

+4

39399

1.704

Indiana Jones 5 T-25

30.85M

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-21 Thursday

158 Showings

835

+46

25518

0.980	Indiana Jones 5 T-21	7.06M
1.214	The Flash T-21	11.77M

 

T-22 Friday

242 Showings

370

+5

39738

1.044	Indiana Jones 5 T-22	17.54M
1.131	The Flash T-22	16.75M

 

T-23 Saturday

252 Showings

318

+15

40521

1.562	Indiana Jones 5 T-23	29.02M
1.395	The Flash T-23	21.90M

 

T-24 Sunday

241 Showings

145

+11

39395

1.704	Indiana Jones 5 T-24	30.85M
1.835	The Flash T-24	28.45M

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
184	3099	34316	9.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

256

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(1.101x) of Flash $10.68M Previews

(0.759x) of ATSV $13.18M Previews

(1.820x) of Fast X $13.65M Previews

(0.659x) of Barbie $13.90M Previews

Comps AVG: $12.85M

 

Excellent day, increased drastically against every comp except Barbie 

 

Btw @M37 the $14.50M from yesterday was in fact for Barbie 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
184	3274	34316	9.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

175

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(1.112x) of Flash $10.79M Previews

(0.766x) of ATSV $13.30M Previews

(1.843x) of Fast X $13.83M Previews

(0.629x) of Barbie $13.27M Previews

Comps AVG: $12.80M

 

Increased against every comp outside of Barbie

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	176	31233	0.56%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-29

 

(0.508x) of Elemental $1.22M Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-28

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	199	31233	0.64%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-28

 

(0.580x) of Elemental $1.39M Previews

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/15/2023 at 6:26 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	59	157	975	8274	11.78

 

Comps:

1.44x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $10.05 Million

0.56x Barbie (Just Thursday): $11.98 Million

 

Took away the Haunted Mansion comp, that just doesn't make sense anymore. Probably rolling with these two from now on, flawed as they are.

 

The Marvels (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	113	171	681	20413	3.34

 

Comp:

0.82x Oppenheimer: $8.57 Million

 

Honestly this has been behaving better than I thought, actually growing against the Oppy comp.

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-46):

Day: T-46	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	43	24	882	7584	11.63

 

No apparent Taylor Swift premiere bump.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	63	271	1246	9430	13.21

 

Comps:

1.39x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $9.7 Million

0.43x Barbie (Just Thursday): $9.11 Million

1.38 Indiana Jones 5: $9.92 Million

 

Damn I guess this is the only region where the pace and comps aren't that remarkable. Maybe due to lack of shows? All these releases I've comped with were past or near 100 shows, meanwhile FNAF is at 63. 

 

The Marvels (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	118	134	815	21013	3.88

 

Comps:

0.85x Oppenheimer: $8.96 Million

 

Still rising against Oppy.

 

Trolls: Band Together (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-16	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	53	4	8	6312	0.13
Saturday Nov 4 EA: 12 theaters	12	95	115	1594	7.21
TOTALS:	65	99	123	7906	1.56

 

Those EA numbers are funny, are they doing some kind of promotion or are they literally just marketing the Saturday Early Access? That discrepancy is something else. No comps for Thursday yet, but: 

 

Trolls EA Numbers are at 0.62x of TMNT EA (both Saturday and Monday ) on T-17 and T-15 respectively = circa $1 million for Trolls EA. 

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-42):

Day: T-42	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	44	17	899	7836	11.47

 

Comp:

0.11x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $4.16 Million

 

Don't take this seriously, this was 2 days into Taylor's run, that'll drop significantly by next update. Just wanted to add some fuel to some fan wars (kidding, I hella respect both artists!)