The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Boxofficerules]

24 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I knew about this for a month. There are rumors about the film going around saying it’s god awful. Everytime that I come here and people keep talking about how great it will do at the box office feels like I just arrived at a parallel timeline or something.

If the film really is bad, you think that could ruin Blumhouse reputation with teens?

[cannastop]

7 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

If the film really is bad, you think that could ruin Blumhouse reputation with teens?

nah... I don't think anyone is keeping score

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

If the film really is bad, you think that could ruin Blumhouse reputation with teens?

Nah, Blumhouse produces way too much stuff. It’d be just another failed videogame adaptation. I mean it’s crazy that people here are just finding out that this is getting a day and date streaming release here. The rumor on film twitter is basically how bad the film is but people can’t talk about it because of the embargo. I just assumed it was a BOT meme thing, but it’s been treated like a joke outside here for a good while.

[tdangie]

41 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I knew about this for a month. There are rumors about the film going around saying it’s god awful. Everytime that I come here and people keep talking about how great it will do at the box office feels like I just arrived at a parallel timeline or something.

Hmmm weird, the only insider info I've seen on twitter was that test screenings for the FNAF movie were actually pretty good. Although I guess we'll all find out about the film's quality once it releases in the UK on Oct 25, and then we'll finally see some real reactions.

[Porthos]

52 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I knew about this for a month. There are rumors about the film going around saying it’s god awful. Everytime that I come here and people keep talking about how great it will do at the box office feels like I just arrived at a parallel timeline or something.

 

 

That's because the pre-sales have been terrific.  

 

Now some of us have cautioned that once reviews drop that could hurt it a lot.  And others of us have cautioned that it could drop like a stone during the OW once WOM spreads (if it's either bad or not what the fanbase wants).  And still others of us have noted that it's gonna very likely start falling behind the pace of films that did get social media/review bounces.

 

(and some of us have said all three)

 

But I don't know what else to tell you.  The pre-sales, which is what *this thread* cares about, have so far been outstanding.

 

So, yes, FNAF looks like it will do "great" at the box office, at least initially.  Beyond that, we don't know.

Edited October 21, 2023 by Porthos

[vale9001]

FNAF seems an horror for teens and very young people, so yeah this kinda of product is the most  critic proof.

Edited October 21, 2023 by vale9001

[ZattMurdock]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

That's because the pre-sales have been terrific.  

 

Now some of us have cautioned that once reviews drop that could hurt it a lot.  And others of us have cautioned that it could drop like a stone during the OW once WOM spreads (if it's either bad or not what the fanbase wants).  And still others of us have noted that it's gonna very likely start falling behind the pace of films that did get social media/review bounces.

 

(and some of us have said all three)

 

But I don't know what else to tell you.  The pre-sales, which is what *this thread* cares about, have so far been outstanding.

 

So, yes, FNAF looks like it will do "great" at the box office, at least initially.  Beyond that, we don't know.

I understand that, my point is that there’s a lot of chatter about the late review embargo and it’s peacock day and date for a good while now. This isn’t new information, and I was kinda taken aback seeing people hyped for this here when I look at film twitter is basically deemed a joke.

 

18 minutes ago, tdangie said:

Hmmm weird, the only insider info I've seen on twitter was that test screenings for the FNAF movie were actually pretty good. Although I guess we'll all find out about the film's quality once it releases in the UK on Oct 25, and then we'll finally see some real reactions.

I’m not talking weird ‘insider info’, I’m talking film twitter. The chatter about the late embargo and how that correlates to the streaming day and date isn’t new. It wasn’t my intention to derail the tracking thread, just to point out that people acting surprised when this is getting a day and date release here seems funny because the news isn’t new at all. Neither is the chatter about the late embargo. 

[tdangie]

Anyway, hyped for the FNAF movie regardless! As long as it pleases FNAF fans and makes enough money for a sequel, I'll be extremely happy.

 

I also gotta say, it's gonna be quite interesting to see how the reviews are gonna affect the box office for this movie. I know there are a lot of fans (including me lol) who are gonna pay and see the movie in theaters even with bad reviews from critics. 

Edited October 21, 2023 by tdangie

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, ZattMurdock said:

I understand that, my point is that there’s a lot of chatter about the late review embargo and it’s peacock day and date for a good while now. This isn’t new information, and I was kinda taken aback seeing people hyped for this here when I look at film twitter is basically deemed a joke.

 

I’m not talking weird ‘insider info’, I’m talking film twitter. The chatter about the late embargo and how that correlates to the streaming day and date isn’t new. It wasn’t my intention to derail the tracking thread, just to point out that people acting surprised when this is getting a day and date release here seems funny because the news isn’t new at all. Neither is the chatter about the late embargo. 

 

It's not new info here either and has largely been baked into at least some of the, if not most of the, conversations.  What you saw a page or so back was, IMO, a combination of frustration at the rollout of this film and exasperation that even if this is a turd that Universal isn't maximizing the box office potential of this film before whatever bad reviews might or might not arrive.

 

In other words: We know.  

 

But this forum likes an Unexpected Box Office Story like little else, and thus our reactions are more inclined to... shall we say, critique studios if they are doing things we collectively feel are against their own interests.

 

I do have some other observations but even if they are tangentially related to tracking, I think they'd probably be better left to the actual FNAF thread.

[vale9001]

59 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

If the film really is bad, you think that could ruin Blumhouse reputation with teens?

 

59 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

If the film really is bad, you think that could ruin Blumhouse reputation with teens?

 

 

 

i think the average teen doesn't know what a Blumhouse is. 

 

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

The Marvels, T-21, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 480

New sales: n/a

Growth: n/a

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 12.3

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.625x of ATSV for $10.8M

 

I figured if I was able to do FNAF as a manual count, I should do Marvels. I lack good comps for it, even at the very local level, but ATSV gives something. ATSV really over performed locally as well, but on the strength of a solid final week. Still, numbers are better than what I thought after i was checking casually on it's opening day. 

 

I figure this is one i should track, as a low end Marvel will likely be useful as a comp going forward. It should help us gauge Aquaman for example in a months time.

 

Just based on time it takes, I'm going to need to limit what films I track. I figure I'll limit to this and FNAF for now, and may not go daily for Marvels.

 

The Marvels, T-20, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 506

New sales: 26

Growth: 5.4%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 13.0

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.625x of ATSV for $10.8M

 

I'm in the bottom of the U, so not much change.

[VanillaSkies]

Maybe Universal marketing (as dumb as they seem to be) feel the movie caters to what the fans want, and therefore releasing in Peacock the day before they think might drum up word of mouth on social media to drive ticket sales for the weekend? 
 

Again, I think it’s a dumb strategy, but maybe that is what they are thinking. I personally hate that it’s being released on streaming day and date. I hope in the near future theatres refuse to play such releases. We’ve moved far enough past the pandemic now that there should be enough revenue generating films that they don’t need to play the odd day and date film. 
 

FWIW, less than 10% of North America has Peacock, so there are a lot of people who don’t even have that option. It will make it so high quality versions will be online to stream illegally during first weekend, which is concerning. Still, pre-sales are amazing, so at least we should get a banger opening weekend from it, even if it falls apart after that.

[filmlover]

The FNAF movie is going to be my first exposure to the entire property lol. Guess it speaks to how much I rarely pay attention to the video game world, but I had barely heard of this until the movie started gaining traction.

 

It's obviously going to be very frontloaded, just from looking at sales for the rest of that weekend compared to Thursday and Friday.

Edited October 21, 2023 by filmlover

[ZattMurdock]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The FNAF movie is going to be my first exposure to the entire property lol. Guess it speaks to how much I rarely pay attention to the video game world, but I had barely heard of this until the movie starting gaining traction.

 

It's obviously going to be very frontloaded, just from looking at sales for the rest of that weekend compared to Thursday and Friday.

I’d argue that despite being old as fuck, I’m one of the most connected with the video game world here and despite being ‘aware’ of its existence I never truly cared about it. I mean it’s not that different than I don’t know, Blumhouse doing Phantasmagoria next. I know those two exist, I know that Among Us exists too. But I never cared. I think it’s more like a teenager kind of game than anything else. Streamer culture and etc. You can’t really compare with something like Uncharted, Tomb Raider, Warcraft and etc., let alone Super Mario.

Edited October 21, 2023 by ZattMurdock

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

FWIW, less than 10% of North America has Peacock, so there are a lot of people who don’t even have that option. It will make it so high quality versions will be online to stream illegally during first weekend, which is concerning. Still, pre-sales are amazing, so at least we should get a banger opening weekend from it, even if it falls apart after that.

This is why I don't think the Peacock factor will hurt opening weekend much compared to the Halloween sequels. Xfinity users were kicked off free Peacock earlier this year, so less people actually have it now. The FNAF audience wants to see this on the big screen.

[Shawn Robbins]

16 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Super strong day. Looks like exhibitor's got the memo as lots of showings were added today 

 

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

@Shawn... HIS POWAH!!! 

 

Quote

17 hours ago, @keysersoze123 said:
Five Night at Freddy's

MTC1 previews - 64622/365663 944657.00 2442 shows

MTC2 previews - 54869/502151 720070.23 3553 shows

Terrific growth at both places. All set for final push. @M37 FYI. 

 

 

 

[Giorno]

imagine telling someone a year ago that a marvel sequel to a billion dollar movie might get absolutely punted by a video game movie that is available on streaming before going on theaters

[Boxofficerules]

It doesn't really feel like FNAF is opening this week. Universal doesn't seem to be doing much with it, the hype seems fan driven. No advanced fan screenings or anything.

[filmlover]

Just now, Boxofficerules said:

It doesn't really feel like FNAF is opening this week. Universal doesn't seem to be doing much with it, the hype seems fan driven. No advanced fan screenings or anything.

They probably know that outside appeal seems small, the fanbase just happens to be big enough to drive it to a big opening (even if that's also going to make it frontloaded as hell).

[ZattMurdock]

12 minutes ago, Giorno said:

imagine telling someone a year ago that a marvel sequel to a billion dollar movie might get absolutely punted by a video game movie that is available on streaming before going on theaters

Might is the operative word here. The signs showing this isn’t happening and that it’s more wishful thinking than anything are there. I’m fairly confident that FNAF isn’t touching The Marvels as much as I’m confident that the latter isn’t touching Barbie. Coming October 26th it will be interesting to see.

 

 

 

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

They probably know that outside appeal seems small, the fanbase just happens to be big enough to drive it to a big opening (even if that's also going to make it frontloaded as hell).

Or maybe they have a gag order to film critics that is so crazy that they are releasing the film on Peacock before the review embargo or the film is even out at the movie theaters. Which is quite telling.

Edited October 21, 2023 by ZattMurdock