The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Mojoguy]

26 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I think the trailers have been very good. I wasn’t interested at first but the trailers piqued my interest. Also I think people fondly remember the first two films at least so if the movie gets good reviews think it could end up doing all right 

With all indications of Marvels disappointing big time, THG should really benefit as the only other big action movie of Nov.

[Porthos]

On 11/4/2023 at 12:07 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	200	27291	28892	1601	5.54%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	3
Total Net Seats Added Today	39
Total Seats Sold Today	69

 

T-6 Comps:

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	58.22		97	2750		0/101	13218/15968	17.22%		6409	24.98%		6.25m
GOTG3	32.36		317	4948		0/226	26866/31814	15.55%		10750	14.89%		5.66m
TLM	62.22		151	2573		0/173	21977/24550	10.48%		6561	24.40%		6.41m
AtSV	48.59		266	3295		0/142	19179/22474	14.66%		9744	16.43%		8.44m
Flash	84.80		154	1888		0/178	23257/25145	7.51%		5327	30.05%		8.23m
Indy 5	85.39		73	1875		0/134	18832/20707	9.05%		4767	33.59%		6.15m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     269/8665  [3.10% sold]
Matinee:    67/2546  [2.63% | 4.18% of all tickets sold]
3D:            115/4957  [2.32% | 7.18% of all tickets sold]

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	27718	29389	1671	5.69%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	497
Total Seats Sold Today	70

 

T-5 Comps:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	58.65		99	2849		0/101	13119/15968	17.84%		6409	26.07%		6.30m
GOTG3	32.05		265	5213		0/226	26601/31814	16.39%		10750	15.54%		5.61m
TLM	61.96		124	2697		0/175	22324/25021	10.78%		6561	25.47%		6.38m
AtSV	46.77		278	3573		0/142	18901/22474	15.90%		9744	17.15%		8.12m
Flash	82.60		135	2023		0/178	23122/25145	8.05%		5327	31.37%		8.01m
Indy 5	82.03		162	2037		0/134	18676/20713	9.83%		4767	35.05%		5.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     276/9184  [3.01% sold]
Matinee:    65/2719  [2.39% | 3.89% of all tickets sold]
3D:            136/4957  [2.74% | 8.14% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Only reason these comps aren't as bad as some markets today is.... y'allz are just catching up to Sacto which has been pointing to 6-ish for a while now!   Like, almost none of the 6m-ish comps budged today — which is honestly kinda grimly funny.  In a gallows sort of way. 

 

[Hilts]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Mtc2 atp higher than 1. That’s a first.

 

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

it got DBOX and some PLF while MTC1 was all regular digital shows. 

 

At least locally as well MTC1 has 20%-25% off for matinee shows whilst MTC2 does not seem to discount for that.

 

[vafrow]

On 11/4/2023 at 8:04 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-6, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 884

New sales: 44

Growth: 5.2%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 56

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

1.12x of FNAF for $11.6M

 

Single theatre comp:

0.256x of ATSV for $4.4M

1.03x of The Flash for $10.0M

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 3.2 (3.1)

Early evening: 77.7 (79.5)

Late Evening: 19.1 (17.4)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 2.3

Early Evening: 29.9

Late Evening: 8.0

Avg: 15.8

 

Growth came down when it really can't afford to. Sales are starting to shift a bit more to late shows. There's still plenty of capacity for early evening, but, not always for the preferred formats like the smaller VIP theatres. 

 

Today, MTC4 runs their community day promotion where they're running free older family movies this morning. Tickets are fully sold out so you'll have lots of people in theatres that don't otherwise go. It could result in an uptick tomorrow, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

If I was tracking Wish, I wouldn't be surprised to see the biggest impact being there.

 

The Marvels, T-5, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 937

New sales: 53

Growth: 6.0%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 56

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.955x of FNAF for $9.8M

 

Single theatre comp:

0.252x of ATSV for $4.4M

0.969x of The Flash for $9.4M

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 3.2 (3.2)

Early evening: 77.4 (77.7)

Late Evening: 19.4 (19.1)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 2.5

Early Evening: 31.5

Late Evening: 8.7

Avg: 16.7

 

Still slow. Falling below comps, including Flash. Mainly, it's so meh. There's a bunch of showtimes that are still completely empty.

 

One thing I was thinking about during the update this morning is that we're lucky that Marvels didn't release in ots original slot, where Barbieheimer would have destroyed it. It would have created doubt about whether it was just bad timing or not.

 

This result is likely sending a clear message that things are now vastly different for the MCU.

[Hilts]

On 11/2/2023 at 8:17 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

PRISCILLA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
129	314	22478	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

113

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.880x) of Fat Greek Wedding 3 $483K Previews

(0.388x) of Haunting in Venice $465K Previews

Comps AVG: $474k

 

Lets call it $400k-$500k

 

Box Office: ‘Five Nights at Freddy’s’ Leads Near 2023 Low Weekend – Deadline

 

Quote

Yesterday was $1.9M, $450K of that coming from Thursday night previews.

 

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

The Marvels T-5

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco Theaters

Show count - 31

Seats sold - 556

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 9.2%

New sales - 16 (+2.9%)

 

Comp 

 

0.12x Eras Fri T-5 = $4.2m / $2.31m ATP adjusted (-45%)*

*shitty comp, only watching the pace 

 

Friday T-6

 

Show count - 65

Seats sold - 409 

New sales - 20 (+4.9%)

---

 

Just not a lot of interest being shown here. Agree that <$6m previews is a possibility, sadly. 

 

 

The Marvels T-4

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 31

Seats sold - 584

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 10.3%

New sales - 28 (+4.8%)

 

Comp 

 

0.125x Eras Fri T-4 = $4.36m / $2.4m ATP adjusted (-45%)*

*shitty comp, only watching the pace 

 

Friday T-5

 

Show count - 65

Seats sold - 451

New sales - 42 (+10.2%)

 

.77x Thu

---

 

A little more life today. 

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I have been genuinely baffled why anyone would think a Hunger Games prequel in 2023 could pull any kind of big OW.
 

Quick history reminder: this franchise conquered the Hollywood tentpole heap DOM, and then right when it was at the height of its powers, it had a terribly disappointing opening for both parts of its “big finale” with big drop offs from its well received predecessors. This was a decade ago mind you.
 

So now we’re gonna bring it back all these years later in prequel form with approximately zero of the OG cast and expect the GA to care? Nah. THG was always a moment in time franchise that shot into the stratosphere instantly and fizzled out so quick, it couldn’t even finish its relatively short saga on top. 

The budget is "only" $100M, so unlike the big movie opening the week before it, the expectations as to its barrier to cross for success are lowered. The overall gross is unlikely to look too good compared to even the underperforming Mockingjay movies, but given that prequels (especially ones with no one from the original movies involved) are always risks that often tend to sputter, it just needs to be not completely rejected to be considered a win, even if it's a minor one.

Edited November 5, 2023 by filmlover

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-12

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco Theaters

Show count - 20

Seats sold - 148

Total seats - 2680

% sold - 5.5%

New sales - 24 (+16%)

 

Comp 

 

.482x Marvels T-12 = ??

---

 

Borrowing M37's acronym  

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-11

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 20

Seats sold - 154

Total seats - 2680

% sold - 5.7%

New sales - 6 (+4.05%)

 

Comp 

 

.492x Marvels T-11 = ??

---

 

Sold the same # of seats as Marvels on T-11. 

 

[M37]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

Matinee:    65/2719  [2.39% | 3.89% of all tickets sold]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

Late afternoon: 3.2 (3.2)

Just curious, what time do each of you use for cutoff here? I know Thursday on Nov isn’t great for afternoon shows, but those are very low relative volume 

[keysersoze123]

On 11/3/2023 at 11:05 PM, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-6) - 58422/706230 1154655.72 3616 shows +1874

Friday - 39472/1049244 748270.04 5334 shows +2205

 

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 60748/706676 1198149.98 3619 shows +2326

Friday - 42719/1051815 806266.77 5350 shows +3247

 

Friday was couple of hours more than norm but good news is Saturday(T-5) did not slow down but its starting its final ramp. Let us how Sunday goes. Every movie goes up 50-60% on its final sunday.  

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Just curious, what time do each of you use for cutoff here? I know Thursday on Nov isn’t great for afternoon shows, but those are very low relative volume 

 

Right now, my "late afternoon" goes as late as 4:40. Early evening are all after 6:00.

 

I'm not sure how I'd handle things between 5:00 and 6:00, and the issue hasn't come up yet. Some of it will depend on circumstance.  KOTFM with a 5:45 show, so they can get an evening show in before 10:00 is different than an 80 minute kids film with a 5:30 show and a 7:30 show.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Just curious, what time do each of you use for cutoff here? I know Thursday on Nov isn’t great for afternoon shows, but those are very low relative volume 

 

My cutoff is actual matinee pricing. 🙂 

(when I remember to actually take the extra step to check, that is)

 

None of the MTC2s in town have them and MTC3 recently switched things up from "most shows pre-6pm" to "most shows pre-4:30pm/5:00pm".  Some of the MiniMTCs have them and some don't.

 

Unfortunately, it's kinda haphazard with MTC3 as it doesn't appear to be completely uniform in the region as at least one theater still has "shows before 6pm" as its guide and another is kinda random for shows in the 4pm corridor.   Also not uniform whether or not PLF screens can get discounted pricing as that also is dependent on the theater in question, though it always has been.

 

Either way, it had indeed been "most shows pre-6pm at MTC3" for a looooong time, but just recently (within the last couple of big releases) started to shift to "most shows pre-4:30ishpm at MTC3".

[Blue35]

The social media embargo has just lifted for the hunger games movie. Extremely positive from what I’ve seen, some calling it the best of the series.

 

 

[Boxofficerules]

When do embargo's end on Thanksgiving?

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, Blue35 said:

The social media embargo has just lifted for the hunger games movie. Extremely positive from what I’ve seen, some calling it the best of the series.

 

 

This is how you do it when the strike is still on. Just attack it with early Social reactions and then reviews. 

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is how you do it when the strike is still on. Just attack it with early Social reactions and then reviews. 

The Marvels misfortune is going to be this movies fortune.

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-4):

 

972 tickets at 10 Houston AMCs/+45 YD

 

Comps:

 

0.526x MI7 (EA and Wlmt Incl) = $3.68m

 

1.525x Indiana Jones 5 = $11m

 

The Flash sold  273 tickets between (D-5) and (D-3) and Black Adam sold 223 tickets between same checkpoints so yeah growth rate is poor

[VanillaSkies]

47 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is how you do it when the strike is still on. Just attack it with early Social reactions and then reviews. 

they have a Sag interim deal though, so the stars are out promoting, going to premiere etc. added punch for this one. 

[el sid]

More and comps tomorrow but today I counted Godzilla Minus One and it had in 3 theaters already nice 131 and 106 sold tickets for Thursday, October 30, respectively Friday, November 1.

E.g. 65 (1.22M from previews/12.3M OW, of course no subtitles) had on Monday of the release week 157 and 142 sold tickets.

Edited November 5, 2023 by el sid

[Hilts]

22 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.58
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-9	25	188	36	726	33,709	2.15%	5.22%
T-8	25	188	50	776	33,709	2.30%	6.89%
T-7	25	188	41	817	33,709	2.42%	5.28%
T-6	25	193	83	900	34,228	2.63%	10.16%
T-5	25	193	30	930	34,228	2.72%	3.33%
MTC1	8	59	+18	452	10,485	4.31%	4.15%
MTC2	4	48	+1	130	8,204	1.58%	0.78%
MTC3	3	39	+6	262	8,077	3.24%	2.34%
Other	10	47	+5	86	7,462	1.15%	6.17%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.690x	=	$4.97m
Barbie					0.223x	=	$4.95m
Oppenheimer					0.469x	=	$4.92m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.817x	=	$7.19m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.340x	=	$7.50m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.507x	=	$5.22m

 

Matinee: 3.44%

3D: 9.89%

PLF: 58.60%

 

Comp average: $5.79m

 

Ahh no this was not a good day.

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.57
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-8	25	188	50	776	33,709	2.30%	6.89%
T-7	25	188	41	817	33,709	2.42%	5.28%
T-6	25	193	83	900	34,228	2.63%	10.16%
T-5	25	193	30	930	34,228	2.72%	3.33%
T-4	25	193	29	959	34,228	2.80%	3.12%
MTC1	8	59	+16	468	10,485	4.46%	3.54%
MTC2	4	48	+1	131	8,204	1.60%	0.77%
MTC3	3	39	+12	274	8,077	3.39%	4.58%
Other	10	47	0	86	7,462	1.15%	0.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.665x	=	$4.79m
Barbie					0.208x	=	$4.63m
Oppenheimer					0.437x	=	$4.59m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.739x	=	$6.51m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.174x	=	$6.57m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.488x	=	$5.03m

 

Matinee: 3.96%

3D: 9.70%

PLF: 58.60%

 

Comp average: $5.35m

 

What is going on!! I think people going for THG: BoS&S instead.