The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

On 11/15/2023 at 12:53 PM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Wish Sacramento Report [T-7] (all seats sold as of [very] late last night)

558/11692 (4.77% sold) [+24 tickets] [160/1160 EA | 398/10532 Tue]  85 showings (9 EA | 76 Tue)

 

1.82353x Elemental at T-7 [STILL NO OVERALL COMP THANKS TO EA/DT MIX]

 

EA ONLY COMP:

0.36866x Elemental at T-4 [0.88m - SAT ONLY]

---

TUESDAY ONLY COMP:

0.92991x TMNT:MM at T-7 [3.58m - TUE ONLY]o bringing in other comps that may or may not be better than the above)

 

Quick and Dirty Wish Sacramento Report [T-3]

1318/13946 (9.45% sold) [+342 tickets] [634 EA (+245) | 684 Tue (+97)]  103 showings (9 EA | 94 Tue)

 

2.47744x Elemental at T-3 [NO OVERALL COMP THANKS TO EA/DT MIX]

0.69005x Elemental FINAL TOTAL

 

EA ONLY COMP:

0.33194x Elemental [FINAL] [797k - SAT ONLY]

---

TUESDAY ONLY COMP:

0.98276x TMNT:MM at T-3 [3.78m - TUE ONLY] [Not Adjusted for lower ATP due to more kids tickets sold]

1.28571x Elemental at T-3   [3.08m - TUE ONLY] [Not Adjusted for lower ATP due to mix of more DT tickets]

 

===

 

Well, compared to other markets Sacramento def looks to be on the hot side.  Sold very well today for the Early Access and even the Tuesday showtimes didn't take much of a hit.  Gonna be curious to see Sunday sales as WOM gets around town/decent chunk of demand burnt off.

 

Aside from that, not many thoughts.  Besides noting that the comps could be (much) better, but watcha gonna do? Continue to think about it.  Maybe.  Is a Q&D after all. 🙂

[vafrow]

On 11/15/2023 at 7:39 PM, vafrow said:

Wonka, T-29, D1 hour 7, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius 19km

 

Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 4

Early Evening: 8

Late Evening: 8

 

Showtimes by format

Regular: 0

Dolby: 7

VIP: 4

IMAX: 6

4DX: 3

 

Zero sales so far, so thought I'd at least catalogue the showtime data.

 

I'm a little surprised that there's nothing so far for this. I don't expect monster preview numbers or anything, but was hoping we might see some initial interest.

 

 

Wonka, T-26, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 1

New Sales: 1

Growth: n/a

Showtimes: 20

Radius 19km

 

Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 4

Early Evening: 8

Late Evening: 8

 

Showtimes by format

Regular: 0

Dolby: 7

VIP: 4

IMAX: 6

4DX: 3

 

I've been tracking daily, but not bothering to update due to low numbers. It's at one ticket sold across the sample. 

 

I've taken a peak at the broader area, and there's a slight improvement, but nothing too spectacular.

 

[PrinceRico]

S h o u ld we brace ourselves for a Wonka disappointment. Hype seems really low.

[M37]

1 hour ago, PrinceRico said:

S h o u ld we brace ourselves for a Wonka disappointment. Hype seems really low.

Depends where expectations were set.  Given the release date and holiday period to follow (with little competition) should make at least around 40-50x its preview in the end, so a ~$4M Thursday could IM and leg out to something like $200M (See previously Jumanji TNL, Into Spider-Verse, even Ferdinand). But doesn't appear to be opening close to like $50M

[M37]

Sure seems like Wish and Napoleon are headed for Encanto and Gucci range for their respective openings. Certainly far better than the Strange World and Devotion combo last TG

 

In fact, this whole month feels like a 2021 repeat

Eternals —> Marvels

Ghostbusters —> Hunger Games

Clifford —> Trolls

Resident Evil —> Thanksgiving

King Richard —> Holdovers

French Dispatch —> Priscilla 

With FNAF, ERAS and KOTFM filling the October leftover roles of Dune, NTTD & Venom 

Edited November 19, 2023 by M37

[Grebacio]

23 minutes ago, M37 said:

Sure seems like Wish and Napoleon are headed for Encanto and Gucci range for their respective openings. Certainly far better than the Strange World and Devotion combo last TG

 

In fact, this whole month feels like a 2021 repeat

Eternals —> Marvels

Ghostbusters —> Hunger Games

Clifford —> Trolls

Resident Evil —> Thanksgiving

King Richard —> Holdovers

French Dispatch —> Priscilla 

With FNAF, ERAS and KOTFM filling the October leftover roles of Dune, NTTD & Venom 

Aquaman -> No Way Home?

[YM!]

29 minutes ago, M37 said:

Sure seems like Wish and Napoleon are headed for Encanto and Gucci range for their respective openings. Certainly far better than the Strange World and Devotion combo last TG

 

In fact, this whole month feels like a 2021 repeat

Eternals —> Marvels

Ghostbusters —> Hunger Games

Clifford —> Trolls

Resident Evil —> Thanksgiving

King Richard —> Holdovers

French Dispatch —> Priscilla 

With FNAF, ERAS and KOTFM filling the October leftover roles of Dune, NTTD & Venom 

I think Wish is probably going to do higher than Encanto still. I don’t know much about numbers but that Wednesday seems to hint at around 8-9m, which adding previews should be around 10-11m OD. That should be enough to get it over 50m. Napoleon also seems like it could do 30m for the five day.

[M37]

10 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Aquaman -> No Way Home?

I honestly thought about throwing that in at end but ...

 

[M37]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

I think Wish is probably going to do higher than Encanto still. I don’t know much about numbers but that Wednesday seems to hint at around 8-9m, which adding previews should be around 10-11m OD. That should be enough to get it over 50m. Napoleon also seems like it could do 30m for the five day.

It wasn’t meant as precise comp, they could go higher, and I’m while I’m still not sure about Wish, even $50M 5-day isn’t that far from $40M

 

Do not see Napoleon going that high, expect it be male-skewing, PLF & preview heavy like KOTFM or MI7, or even Air over Easter weekend. But math gets pretty fuzzy with these TG or even just Wed openings in general, especially with so few data points post-pandemic 

Edited November 19, 2023 by M37

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

It wasn’t meant as precise comp, they could go higher, and I’m while I’m still not sure about Wish, even $50M 5-day isn’t that far from $40M

 

Do not see Napoleon going that high, expect it be male-skewing, PLF & preview heavy like KOTFM or MI7, or even Air over Easter weekend. But math gets pretty fuzzy with these TG or even just Wed openings in general, especially with so few data points post-pandemic 

 

I'm gonna be very interested how Black Friday does at the Box Office with the 1st ever Black Friday NFL game...will it hold down what is normally the biggest day of the holiday (like the NFL now does to Sunday box office in the fall), or will it be an afterthought?  3-6:30pm game is rough for a lot of movie start times...and Miami vs NYJ is not a total clunker of a game...

[vafrow]

3 hours ago, PrinceRico said:

S h o u ld we brace ourselves for a Wonka disappointment. Hype seems really low.

 

These two things can be, and are likely true

 

1) the expectations on a film like this for that release date should have low expectations for Thursday previews. This is a film that most of the interested audience is likely interested in seeing in a family setting over the holidays.

 

2) Even with low expectations, it's doing poorly.

 

 

But this is also one of the most difficult holiday periods to predict, and I think it's going to be a big experiment of the supply and demand factors of the box office.

 

There's probably no greater period on the calendar where people are craving a movie to see in theatres. But there's very little to really satisfy that demand.

 

We'll see if people embrace things they may not otherwise have done. 

[HummingLemon496]

3 hours ago, Grebacio said:

Aquaman -> No Way Home?

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

These two things can be, and are likely true

 

1) the expectations on a film like this for that release date should have low expectations for Thursday previews. This is a film that most of the interested audience is likely interested in seeing in a family setting over the holidays.

 

2) Even with low expectations, it's doing poorly.

 

 

But this is also one of the most difficult holiday periods to predict, and I think it's going to be a big experiment of the supply and demand factors of the box office.

 

There's probably no greater period on the calendar where people are craving a movie to see in theatres. But there's very little to really satisfy that demand.

 

We'll see if people embrace things they may not otherwise have done. 

If think like everything lately people are waiting for reviews before they commit. Wonka is not something people are going to buy tickets for a month early without knowing whether it is worth it or not.

[Scubasteve716]

I ask again how Wonka is doing poorly? I’ve seen 4 mil on high side for previews which would likely mean something like 40 mil opening 200 mil domestic total. 

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, Scubasteve716 said:

I ask again how Wonka is doing poorly? I’ve seen 4 mil on high side for previews which would likely mean something like 40 mil opening 200 mil domestic total. 

This is not a huge franchise or something. There is no reason for this to have huge presales weeks before. Let the social media reactions/reviews come out and then let us assess this movie. Some regional data will suck for sure. This is not going to be a blockbuster everywhere anyway. So let us just wait and watch and not over react to these numbers. 

[Cmasterclay]

The trackers for Napoleon certainly seem to point to a 2m previews, which in the old days would have easily been enough for a 30m five day. But the old rules don't apply anymore and we've seen things like KOTFM crash, so who knows.

[emoviefan]

28 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is not a huge franchise or something. There is no reason for this to have huge presales weeks before. Let the social media reactions/reviews come out and then let us assess this movie. Some regional data will suck for sure. This is not going to be a blockbuster everywhere anyway. So let us just wait and watch and not over react to these numbers. 

This. Like I said on the weekend thread we need to stop putting the burden on certain movies to blow up in order to save the industry or something.

[M37]

13 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The trackers for Napoleon certainly seem to point to a 2m previews, which in the old days would have easily been enough for a 30m five day. But the old rules don't apply anymore and we've seen things like KOTFM crash, so who knows.

Also in the old days previewss were at 7pm so the increase to Wed (the more accurate baseline) was naturally higher. But do agree that yes, these are becoming more niche films, pulling in less of the GA, so IM & legs are weaker 

[HummingLemon496]

We should get our first Aquaman data in like 24 hours ish right? 

[YachtyLogs]

22 hours ago, YachtyLogs said:

WONKA

T-26

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

3/1245 - (0.24%)

 

New sold: 2

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 9

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

Two sales today. Maybe in the evening tonight more will get purchased, who knows. The two sales were in a different theater than the first sale.

WONKA

T-25

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

5/1245 - (0.40%)

 

New sold: 2

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 9

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

Two sales more today, same show as the first ticket that sold. So far sales haven't set the world on fire at the two theaters but slowly they're selling.