The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[dallas]

I'm just gonna ask now, but how do you guys get your presale data? Is there like a program you have that tells you? Because I just manually count the seats sold via Fandango lol. 

[Relevation]

52 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 133055/364970 1682211.55 2590 shows

12/26 - 34602/337898 439804.48 2367 shows

 

Motoring on. Could be at 250K+ by end of next Sunday before walkups 🙂

Well, if we yank out what I believe is the best contemporary comp for TCP on Christmas Day

 

MTC1 Friday(T-1)

Paw Patrol 2 - 52210/465001 652465.64 3134 shows 

 

PAW Patrol was a full-day weekday release with no previews, had a very low ATP like TCP (super high matinees for TCP, shitton of kids tickets for PAW)

 

250K on T-1 for TCP at MTC1 would be 4.788x of PAW Patrol T-1, so that would spit out a Christmas Day comp for TCP at $32.694M (!!!)

 

Once again, 

[Relevation]

4 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Well, if we yank out what I believe is the best contemporary comp for TCP on Christmas Day

 

MTC1 Friday(T-1)

Paw Patrol 2 - 52210/465001 652465.64 3134 shows 

 

PAW Patrol was a full-day weekday release with no previews, had a very low ATP like TCP (super high matinees for TCP, shitton of kids tickets for PAW)

 

250K on T-1 for TCP at MTC1 would be 4.788x of PAW Patrol T-1, so that would spit out a Christmas Day comp for TCP at $32.694M (!!!)

 

Once again, 

Oh and just setting this down as a purely hypothetical reference point

 

Mario MTC1 Sat (T-0) - 402506/16954025677818.34 10284 shows

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by Relevation

[TheFlatLannister]

58 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

I guess now that TCP still isn’t slowing down, people are clinging onto the hope that it’ll get poor reviews 🙄

tbf sales are absurd for Christmas day, but fall off drastically in the next few days (from the data i have) which is why some may be hesitant in their overall predictions.  

 

Hopefully @keysersoze123 @Porthos @abracadabra1998 can give updates about post-Christmas sales 

[TheFlatLannister]

26 minutes ago, dallas said:

I'm just gonna ask now, but how do you guys get your presale data? Is there like a program you have that tells you? Because I just manually count the seats sold via Fandango lol. 

Some use automatic scripts, some manually count seats across hundreds of different showings 

 

I know @Tinalera manually counts but not sure about the other trackers 

[abracadabra1998]

43 minutes ago, dallas said:

I'm just gonna ask now, but how do you guys get your presale data? Is there like a program you have that tells you? Because I just manually count the seats sold via Fandango lol. 

 

15 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Some use automatic scripts, some manually count seats across hundreds of different showings 

 

I know @Tinalera manually counts but not sure about the other trackers 

I do a mix of keyword searches and manual counting, I think @Porthos one time said that you find ways to make it more efficient and I definitely concur!  

 

As for TCP, don’t wanna make too many promises I can’t keep, but I’ll try to look over sales for the day after at least just to get an idea of the MON-TUE ratio and compare it to MTC1 numbers. No promises, but it’s been on my mind!  

Edited December 17, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[M37]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

tbf sales are absurd for Christmas day, but fall off drastically in the next few days (from the data i have) which is why some may be hesitant in their overall predictions.  

See, I think this framing is reversed: it’s not that sales “fall off” for Boxing Day, but rather Christmas Day is such it’s own unique beast that’s it’s driving advance sales in a way that’s not really comparable to any other Thursday preview

 

It’s a once a year family gathering/event, and not really any alternatives for a family outing if you get shut/sold out. While the trajectory up to T-1 will be far different, I’m expecting final day walk-ups (T-1 to T-F) to be in big CBM +40% range, while the following days should perform more like a regular walk-up friendly film on a Saturday 

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

See, I think this framing is reversed: it’s not that sales “fall off” for Boxing Day, but rather Christmas Day is such it’s own unique beast that’s it’s driving advance sales in a way that’s not really comparable to any other Thursday preview

 

It’s a once a year family gathering/event, and not really any alternatives for a family outing if you get shut/sold out. While the trajectory up to T-1 will be far different, I’m expecting final day walk-ups (T-1 to T-F) to be in big CBM +40% range, while the following days should perform more like a regular walk-up friendly film on a Saturday 

 

Yep.  I think the sign for TCP that we should be looking for is spillover into Boxing Day/Dec 26th as that is a day many people also have off and is one of the traditionally busier shopping days of the entire year (even beyond the "Every day is Saturday mantra of the post Xmas window).  Not as crazy as Black Friday, but folks running out to return unwanted Xmas gifts is a real thing.  And if folks are out and about already...

[keysersoze123]

On 12/15/2023 at 9:23 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews(T-6) - 26816/509865 525137.08 2619 shows

Friday - 18130/729551 334878.40 3776 shows

 

Terrible pace but expected. 

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 28314/509544 553317.68 2619 shows

Friday - 19589/729269 360103.87 3775 shows

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-6, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 109

New Sales since last update: 21

Growth: 24%

Showtimes: 23

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 17/5

Early Evening: 82 /9

Late Evening: 10/9

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 18/6

Dolby:  6/1

IMAX: 14/3

IMAX 3D: 28/3

4dx: 7/3

VIP 3D: 2/2

VIP: 34/1

Regular 3D: 0/3

 

Comps

0.239x of The Marvels for $1.6M

0.478x of HG:BoSS for $2.7M

0.184x of FNAF for $1.9M

Avg: $2.1M

 

Ticket per showtime comp

 

2.08x Blue Beetle for $7.5M

 

Much better day today. Progress against all comps due to a 24% growth rate. It might be the WB trio deal kicking in. We'll see how the next few days go.

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-5, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 121

New Sales since last update: 12

Growth: 11%

Showtimes: 23

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 18/5

Early Evening: 88 /9

Late Evening: 15/9

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 25/6

Dolby:  6/1

IMAX: 15/3

IMAX 3D: 32/3

4dx: 7/3

VIP 3D: 2/2

VIP: 34/1

Regular 3D: 0/3

 

Comps

0.248x of The Marvels for $1.6M

0.486x of HG:BoSS for $2.8M

0.165x of FNAF for $1.7M

Avg: $2.0M

 

Ticket per showtime comp

 

2.04x Blue Beetle for $6.8M

 

Not a bad day. Staying in double digits growth, but still should ideally get higher if it wamts to gain ground.

[M37]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

All of the above is to say it's gonna need a shit-ton of ticket sales to get mid-20s.  Low 20s seems possible if not plausible if there is a lot of screen expansion (as there will probably be as theater owners usually aren't dummies — but getting out of contracts/shuffling poor performers to smaller screens is still a logistical hurdle).  I believe @M37 has talked about seeing low-20s as a possibility and I'd like to hear his thoughts on what would need to happen for mid-20s, or if there simply isn't enough screens for it with matinee pricing + other films in the mix.  Not with out it really exploding (which it might!).

I'll be honest, we're getting a bit out of my wheelhouse, because usually I don't bother with direct ATP adjustments, but rather let PSM math do the work for me. But will give it a go, working through my thoughts

 

Pulled a few non-Thursday, full day MTC1 sales total that would potentially have a similar matinee heavy skew, and calculated the PSM (for reference, a typical big Thursday preview is around $56/tix)

• Barbie Sun 7/23 = $64.0
• Oppy Sun 7/23 = $57.3
• Mario Wed 4/05 OD = $63.7
• Mario Fri 4/07 = $69.3
• Mario Sat 4/08 = $66.7

Not fond of such a limited data set ( @keysersoze123, if you have others handy that might be applicable, let me know), and they're in a decently small range, but here's where it gets complicated

 

Holidays are typically more of a boon to the little guys than the big MTCs (their market share decreases), so that Mario Good Friday number is where I would start (higher PSM = lower market share, or underindex). But also MTC1 tends to underindex on family films in general, and will probably overindex on TCP. They also way overindexed on Oppy, but that was with a massive PLF draw and boost to ATP, which TCP won't have. And none of these are a Monday or Christmas Day comp, which means there could be even more variables/deviation at play (like senior day?), and that's presuming TCP does in fact have a similar matinee ratio and ATP

 

 

With all of that said, would probably ballpark at ~$60 PSM, in range of Barbie, pending more data, and yet won't be shocked if that ratio is off by $10 in either direction. But with that estimate, for a $20M gross, would need to see at least 300K MTC1 tickets sold for TCP on Xmas day, maybe 330K ... which would be 94% of current seats allocated. To challenge Sherlock Holmes for all time Xmas day opening record ($24.6M), in range of at 375K tickets if not over 400K, which could still be well over 50% of its final seat allocation

 

Presuming that math holds, can make a case for $20M+, but I think the matinee pricing effect as well the likely big market heavy skew, where seats are even more of a premium and run up against capacity, are limiting factors.

Edited December 17, 2023 by M37

[Tinalera]

13 hours ago, dallas said:

I'm just gonna ask now, but how do you guys get your presale data? Is there like a program you have that tells you? Because I just manually count the seats sold via Fandango lol. 

 Hello fellow Manual Counter! The scraping stuff-my mind isnt really good for figuring that stuff out lol. Just works for me esp with a certain Canadian theatre chain and its......peculiarities lol

 

[JustLurking]

13 hours ago, dallas said:

I'm just gonna ask now, but how do you guys get your presale data? Is there like a program you have that tells you? Because I just manually count the seats sold via Fandango lol. 

There isn't a program to count seats but generally speaking coding a scraper is not that hard so if you have some basic knowledge of coding you can do it fairly easily.

Edited December 17, 2023 by JustLurking

[DAJK]

Migration gives me serious Ferdinand vibes, not sure if anyone else is expecting a similar run. Maybe quite a bit less OS but I'm pretty much expecting an identical domestic run.

[abracadabra1998]

I will have a post of ATP, matinee tickets, and what the Monday-Tuesday ratio looks like for The Color Purple later this evening,

 

A little preview of just how many matinee tickets it has sold:

[keysersoze123]

Few more non previews BO @M37. Not sure if any of them are good comps for Purple. I dont remember tracking any movie with holiday start which skews matinee. May be there is Mario but even that was not a Christmas level OD. 

Guardians 3 Sun - 472658/1321618 6842461.26 7537 shows // BO - 31,433,892

Mario Sun - 554006/1644797 7945815.18 9990 shows // BO - 34,567,680

Mermaid Sat - 473426/1294857 7042632.94 7638 shows // BO - 30,119,527    

Ant 3 Sun - 404697/1534079 6000754.77 8691 shows // BO - 25,774,142

Venom 2 Sat - 502820/1208161 7058245.78 6694 shows // BO - 31,630,397

Marvels Sat - 236523/1333756 3851694.25 7324 shows // BO - 15,260,052

Wonka Sat - 197433/1024234 2879068.81 5373 shows // BO ~ 14m

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

Ok I have Color Purple numbers for Boxing day and December 27th

 

Tuesday: 914 seats sold (0.218x of Christmas OD) as of T-9

Wednesday: 291 seats sold (0.069x of Christmas OD) as of T-9

[vafrow]

17 hours ago, dallas said:

I'm just gonna ask now, but how do you guys get your presale data? Is there like a program you have that tells you? Because I just manually count the seats sold via Fandango lol. 

 

I manual count as well. At one point, the main Canadian chain had seat totals displayed, and it was easy. They did away with that.

 

I now manually count. I was offered by posters here help and assistance if I wanted to do a scraper, but, it requires using a PC, and I can't install things on my work computer. I generally just gather data and post from mobile.

 

Plus, I like to interact with the data on a very micro level. I can see if a jump in sales is due to a big group booking for example.

[dallas]

Christmas Day Presales

 

The Color Purple 

965 tickets sold

 

Wonka

202 tickets sold

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

78 tickets sold

 

Migration 

57 tickets sold

 

 

I think Wonka will be the clear winner of the holidays, but TCP is definitely winning Christmas Day. Aquaman is selling okay, hopefully I see more signs of life as Christmas approaches. Migration is doing terrible in terms of presales, but it could see a nice jump on Christmas. 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/15/2023 at 9:17 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Migration MTC1

Previews - 3818/300187 53902.96 2066 shows

Friday - 4546/433801 60813.22 2928 shows

12/25 - 4720/419426 59058.22 2885 shows

 

Definitely Christmas day will be the biggest. That said OW wont be great. Let us see if it can hit double digits. 

Migration MTC1

Previews - 4538/303573 63694.86 2096 shows

Friday - 5753/437135 76766.01 2955 shows

12/25 - 5925/425301 74393.33 2951 shows

 

2 days of pace. Just anemic.