The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[harrisonisdead]

20 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

seems pretty low, is a "highest-grossing day for a movie at under a certain number of theaters" record in the cards?

maybe 21st century or post-2010

not just opening day, but day day, dont think too many movies are still making 20 million + any day while being at sub 3.2k

The best I could find for opening day is $30M for Attack of the Clones in 3161 theaters and for non-opening Passion of the Christ at $33M in 3043 theaters. Assuming a 3200 cutoff. There are probably a good handful of other films that did $20M+ in so few theaters.

 

Add in another qualifier for December openings and it would be a lot easier. For under 3500 theaters, Avatar has both the opening day and non-opening day December records with $27M and $28M in 3452 theaters. The record for under 3200 is somewhere below $20M, but I'm not sure how much because the-numbers' top 100 list bottoms out at $19.5M and Avatar is the least wide release on the list.

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

seems pretty low, is a "highest-grossing day for a movie at under a certain number of theaters" record in the cards?

maybe 21st century or post-2010

not just opening day, but day day, dont think too many movies are still making 20 million + any day while being at sub 3.2k

 

 

It's not a real surprise we have this weekend and Monday 7 Wide openers , it was sure that there would be a division of all this but I don't worry next Friday the film will win locations and even more generally screens with the great number of Christmas Day (and the overperformance)

Edited December 21, 2023 by Grand Cine

[keysersoze123]

I looked at Color Purple this morning beyond Christmas

Color Purple MTC1 

12/26 - 52063/516039 663342.81 3549 shows

12/27 - 11458/498515 145676.86 3456 shows

 

12/26 is still fine. Could hit high single digits. But it drops off the cliff on 27th. I guess spillover effects is helping its BO in 26th. I expect Wonka to take the lead before end of next week. 

[TalismanRing]

38 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Getting back to AquaMan...It was running hot locally similar to what @Porthos was seeing, but reviews seriously crippled sales here (completely killed the tiny momentum it had) 

 

T-0 update

Aquaman: 364 seats sold 

The Marvels: 700 seats sold 

Blue Beetle: 388 seats sold

Flash: 1066 seats sold 

 

Doing far better there than at my NYC local.  Less than 25% of Marvels, 50% Blue Beetle and 14% of The Flash.  Comps would come out to  $1.37 -1.65m.  Obviously not happening Nationwide because here I think Dunki and Salar are stealing it's preview thunder.  So far Dunki has sold more than 4x AQ2 and Salar more than 2x.    But this location used to be regularly in the top 10 or 15 nationwide for CBM. 

[Grand Cine]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I looked at Color Purple this morning beyond Christmas

Color Purple MTC1 

12/26 - 52063/516039 663342.81 3549 shows

12/27 - 11458/498515 145676.86 3456 shows

 

12/26 is still fine. Could hit high single digits. But it drops off the cliff on 27th. I guess spillover effects is helping its BO in 26th. I expect Wonka to take the lead before end of next week. 

With the holidays , is it possible that he has got more walkups than normally?

[TalismanRing]

21 minutes ago, harrisonisdead said:

The best I could find for opening day is $30M for Attack of the Clones in 3161 theaters and for non-opening Passion of the Christ at $33M in 3043 theaters. Assuming a 3200 cutoff. There are probably a good handful of other films that did $20M+ in so few theaters.

 

Add in another qualifier for December openings and it would be a lot easier. For under 3500 theaters, Avatar has both the opening day and non-opening day December records with $27M and $28M in 3452 theaters. The record for under 3200 is somewhere below $20M, but I'm not sure how much because the-numbers' top 100 list bottoms out at $19.5M and Avatar is the least wide release on the list.

 

Movies make about 90%+ of their revenue from the top 2,000 theaters.  The reason bigger opening films have so many theaters is everyone wants to get a piece of the pie and usually even small theaters will make more money off them than playing something else - but they were still going to be huge even with a thousand less theaters.   Christmas is a theater log jam with so many films opening.

[Grand Cine]

I think , this is more worrying because , ok it's just locations and the screens count is more important , but outside WW1984, it's the lowest location count ever for the DCEU and the Lowest for DC since Watchmen in 2009 !!! Ok ,  he has got 7 Wide openers but it's well below of Wonka

[keysersoze123]

Aquaman is at 59477/554128 1095990.05 at this point. Its already almost at where Shazam finished. I definitely see it hit 4m+. Its final day sales are good so far. Let us see how walkup goes. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

36 minutes ago, harrisonisdead said:

The best I could find for opening day is $30M for Attack of the Clones in 3161 theaters and for non-opening Passion of the Christ at $33M in 3043 theaters. Assuming a 3200 cutoff. There are probably a good handful of other films that did $20M+ in so few theaters.

 

Add in another qualifier for December openings and it would be a lot easier. For under 3500 theaters, Avatar has both the opening day and non-opening day December records with $27M and $28M in 3452 theaters. The record for under 3200 is somewhere below $20M, but I'm not sure how much because the-numbers' top 100 list bottoms out at $19.5M and Avatar is the least wide release on the list.

 

thanks

might have to make it a 2010 (and maybe December only) cutoff then

just wanted to try an picture what headline oprah's press release might lead with 

Edited December 21, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[dallas]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Aquaman is at 59477/554128 1095990.05 at this point. Its already almost at where Shazam finished. I definitely see it hit 4m+. Its final day sales are good so far. Let us see how walkup goes. 

I'm guessing $3.8M previews

[crazymoviekid]

Anyone else having Anyone But You explode by them today?  Mine are rivaling Ticket to Paradise, Crawdads, and No Hard Feelings.

[HummingLemon496]

54 minutes ago, dallas said:

I'm guessing $3.8M previews

~21-22 ish opening then

[Flip]

23 minutes ago, crazymoviekid said:

Anyone else having Anyone But You explode by them today?  Mine are rivaling Ticket to Paradise, Crawdads, and No Hard Feelings.

yup, review bump I'm guessing + naturally good walkups for a rom com

[M37]

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

I think , this is more worrying because , ok it's just locations and the screens count is more important , but outside WW1984, it's the lowest location count ever for the DCEU and the Lowest for DC since Watchmen in 2009 !!! Ok ,  he has got 7 Wide openers but it's well below of Wonka

Bumblebee was the first Transformers film to open in less than 4,000 locations at like 3600, because 1) it was December not summer and 2) it was 3rd in line behind Aquaman and Mary Poppins (and on same level as ITSV).  And CBMs have becomes more PLF dependent, which the bottom 1000 locations don’t have, decreasing the return vs say Migration 
That’s all this theatre count reflects, along with sad reality that there are just fewer locations now as quite a few have closed post-COVID.

 

Only 2 films topped 4400 locations this year, after 6 did last year, 8 over 4300 vs 12 the year before 

[Relevation]

19 hours ago, Relevation said:

$4M previews will not happen for Aquaman because the walkups for it to keep pace with the smaller DCEU films will not happen

 

Social reactions are overwhelmingly negative so this will probably get Morbius tier reviews or worse, likely crippling the walkups plus the fact that it's a sequel with much fewer positive walkup factors than Blue Beetle (more connected to core DCEU, no latino walkups, crowded marketplace, no family walkups, likely piss poor reviews)

 

$3.75M is the number imo

3 hours ago, dallas said:

Weak finish here too. Probably not $4M. $3.7-3.9M sounds reasonable. 

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

(1.163x) of Blue Beetle $3.88M Previews

(0.388x) of The Flash $3.77M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.83M

 

Weak finish here. Maybe not $4M previews like I was seeing yesterday. Going with $3.8M +/- $0.2M

 

[Relevation]

2 minutes ago, Relevation said:

 

Ok maybe I was a lil off on how bad the reviews would be but frankly I view this as a W prediction unless the actuals just throw me for a curveball

Edited December 21, 2023 by Relevation

[keysersoze123]

Migration also is having good walkups. Thinking 1.3m+ at this point. 

[M37]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Migration also is having good walkups. Thinking 1.3m+ at this point. 

I was waiting to see if that would happen. It’s basically a summer Thursday / regular Friday tonight, more walk-up friendly in general (for ABY as well)

 

Now just waiting to see what effect the Aquaman reviews have on Sacto …

[DAJK]

Too early in the afternoon on the WC for me to say anything definitive but Aquaman’s walkups are pretty solid so far.

 

Migration I’ll have a bit of an idea in a half hour or so.

[MovieMan89]

34 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Migration also is having good walkups. Thinking 1.3m+ at this point. 

If Illumnation actually scores a strong opening with this non-IP animated film they literally left to die, they are totally unstoppable