The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

On 1/3/2024 at 10:07 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Night Swim MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 9003/262104 160202.31 1662 shows

Friday - 8335/548330 134648.21 3396 shows

 

Not much of a pace for either. Probably high single digit OW and previews around 1m. 

Night Swim MTC1

Previews Final -  24950/262361 410406.44 1666 shows

Friday - 14203/549425 228432.75 3409 shows

 

Final day walkups were solid. M3gan comps puts it around ~1.55m previews. It sold less than half M3gan tickets but ATP was higher. I guess Avatar took all the PLF last year while this year its not that bad. Should hit double digits OW and probably even low teens at this point.

 

Edit: Friday PS did not grow that much. I guess this is all about walkups.  

Edited January 5 by keysersoze123

[dallas]

The Beekeeper

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-7

9 tickets sold

 

(0.058x) of Aquaman 2 - $261,290

 

Well, the good thing is that its increasing 💀 still not sure this will be a success but walkups will hopefully be fine. I'd say under $10M opening based solely on my data but it's possible that my area is under-indexing. Will definitely be an interesting movie to track. 

[Issac Newton]

Night Swim - $1.45M Previews (2,750 TC, 5 pm)

Edited January 5 by Issac Newton

[Krissykins]

Deadline put that at 8-10m weekend, I’d say $12-14m. 

[Grand Cine]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Night Swim MTC1

Previews Final -  24950/262361 410406.44 1666 shows

Friday - 14203/549425 228432.75 3409 shows

 

Final day walkups were solid. M3gan comps puts it around ~1.55m previews. It sold less than half M3gan tickets but ATP was higher. I guess Avatar took all the PLF last year while this year its not that bad. Should hit double digits OW and probably even low teens at this point.

 

Edit: Friday PS did not grow that much. I guess this is all about walkups.  

 

11 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Night Swim - $1.45M Previews (2,750 TC, 5 pm)

 

Your prediction was good @keysersoze123

[DAJK]

12 hours ago, DAJK said:

Night Swim’s not doing terribly here. Consistently ahead of where I’d expect it to be for 1M previews. Would guess 1.3-1.4 based on comps, but schools haven’t gone back yet here so weekdays may be stronger than usual.

Not bad not bad.

[M37]

17 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Night Swim

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
463	1897	93723	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

 

No comps, just raw numbers. I think I have figured out a way to track walkups. I'll update later tonight on growth

With the reported preview of $1.45M, that puts the PSM for this one film for this sample at $764/tix, or that this sample is ~2-3x larger than the previous one [where 1000 tickets sold is equivalent to 300-500 in the old sample]. Need a few more data points to confirm and narrow down the range, but for now can compare sales to previous comps, with an added adjustment of 0.3-0.5x, to give an estimated comp range until the new data set builds up over time

[keysersoze123]

52 minutes ago, M37 said:

With the reported preview of $1.45M, that puts the PSM for this one film for this sample at $764/tix, or that this sample is ~2-3x larger than the previous one [where 1000 tickets sold is equivalent to 300-500 in the old sample]. Need a few more data points to confirm and narrow down the range, but for now can compare sales to previous comps, with an added adjustment of 0.3-0.5x, to give an estimated comp range until the new data set builds up over time

Earlier it was just Orlando. Now he is looking at entire Florida. Should be at least 3x bigger sample as I would expect Miami to be bigger than Orlando. There are many other cities as well. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Earlier it was just Orlando. Now he is looking at entire Florida. Should be at least 3x bigger sample as I would expect Miami to be bigger than Orlando. There are many other cities as well. 

It was more than just Orlando, and now its a good chunk of Florida not all of it. But also different markets behave differently for presales. The Orlando et all sample was very presale heavy (growth rate over the final week and days far below most samples, even Sacto), while Miami is far more walk-up sales, and these are T-1 Hour, not T-F samples, so its not capturing the full sales volume at the end

 

I won't be surprised if Night Swim, a horror film on a semi-holiday Thursday, turns out to be an outlier, the PSM range comes down lower, and the math changes. But most films for Orlando sample were in the $1500-$2300/tix PSM range, $764/tix is a half to a third of that, and that's the only data point in hand

[el sid]

The Beekeeper, counted today for Thursday, January 11. 6 days left.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 48 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 11 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): so far no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 37 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 33 (6 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 130.

Comps: Expend4bles (750k from previews) had on Sunday (= 2 days left for The Beekeeper) 114 sold tickets and 130 sold tickets on Monday of the release week (= 3 days left for The Beekeeper to overtake).
Operation Fortune (220k) had on Wednesday of the release week (= 5 days left for The Beekeeper) 96 sold tickets.
And Plane (435k) had on Monday of the release week (= 3 days left for The Beekeeper to increase the margin) 89 sold tickets.

Needs the good walk-ups that action films normally have but its presales aren't bad so far. For the moment my guess is that it stays above 10M OW.

[abracadabra1998]

19 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Beekeeper (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	57	28	69	9241	0.75
Saturday Jan 6 EA: 10 theaters	10	113	133	2522	5.27
TOTALS:	67	141	202	11763	1.72

 

Type of tix:*		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		32	32	46.38
MTC1:		57	57	82.61
Marcus:		6	6	8.7
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		6	6	8.7

*This chart is for Thursday previews numbers only

 

Thursday Comps:

0.73x The Equalizer 3: $2.79 Million

1.82x Expend4bles: $1.36 Million

 

Average: $2.08 Million

 

EA Comps:

2.66x The Creator EA: $665k

5.78x Haunting in Venice EA: $560k

0.16x Trolls EA: $190k

0.53x Wish EA: $265k

 

Average: $420k

 

Do think it'll be closer to that Expend4bles number, Equalizer 3 notoriously underperformed here (not a very diverse metro area). EA looks decent, maybe close to $500k thinking about friendlier SAT walk-ups (and it's all PLF). Overall not bad at this stage to be honest.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Saturday Early Access:

 

The Beekeeper (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Saturday Jan 6 EA: 12 theaters	12	52	185	2778	6.66

 

EA Comps:

3.08x The Creator EA: $770k

4.63x Haunting in Venice EA: $465k

0.19x Trolls EA: $220k

0.66x Wish EA: $330k

0.28x MI7 EA: $560k

 

Average: $470k

 

Thought I'd give a quick final update, this ended up being more expansive than I thought it would be. From here I see about ~$500k, but hopefully @keysersoze123 can give an update since EA has more regional variance on number of showings and that can heavily affect numbers.

 

On 1/4/2024 at 4:03 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Night Swim (T-1 hour):

Let's go with a final prediction of $1 Million, +/- 0.15.

 

Starting 2024 with a fat L 😢 just didn't have good enough comps to account for the super late growth (@M37 as usual being right on point). Good call @DAJK, right on the money!  

[M37]

45 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Starting 2024 with a fat L 😢 just didn't have good enough comps to account for the super late growth (@M37 as usual being right on point). Good call @DAJK, right on the money!  

Could also be that local schools were back in session, your market performing more like a typical Thursday than a more summer-y, walk-up friendly one as it did in other locations

[abracadabra1998]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

Could also be that local schools were back in session, your market performing more like a typical Thursday than a more summer-y, walk-up friendly one as it did in other locations

Good point, schools around here are mostly back in session, as my teacher self well knows 🥲 

[dallas]

The Beekeeper

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-6

10 tickets sold 

 

(0.064x) of Aquaman 2 - $286,624

 

Steadily increasing, but still not good territory to be in. I'm like 99% sure my area is just under-indexing but it's still worrying data to look at.

 

Note: the majority of tickets sold are for IMAX screens. Perhaps a high ATP could skew in this movie's favor? 🤔

[keysersoze123]

Beekeeper MTC1

Early shows(1/6) - 13733/66906 267923.27 238 shows

Previews(T-6) - 5033/301060 82471.51 1725 shows

Friday - 3786/371936 60294.44 2114 shows

 

Early show sales are good. It should do > 1m. its presales for previews/friday are not much due to early shows. Let us see how things go early next week and if WOM is good. Mean Girls will win the weekend but Beekeeper could also hit double digits. 

[keysersoze123]

On 1/2/2024 at 7:33 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mean Girls MTC1

Wednesday - 8257/20427 182864.93 107 shows

Thursday - 6704/196869 108761.70 1103 shows

Friday - 8871/321548 140154.77 1743 shows

 

Its ok but its not looking like huge breakout or anything. 

Mean Girls MTC1

Wednesday - 11159/22844 243210.91 125 shows

Previews(T-6) - 11544/219917 188539.84 1234 shows

Friday - 16366/370796 260193.32 2003 shows

 

Its not bad. Previews PS is growing at a fair clip. I am not sure which movie would be a good comp for this one. Just looking at raw data, it looks like around 3m previews and probably mid 20s OW. But let us see close to release how its doing. Weird it has fewer shows so far compared to Beekeeper despite better sales overall. 

[TwoMisfits]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mean Girls MTC1

Wednesday - 11159/22844 243210.91 125 shows

Previews(T-6) - 11544/219917 188539.84 1234 shows

Friday - 16366/370796 260193.32 2003 shows

 

Its not bad. Previews PS is growing at a fair clip. I am not sure which movie would be a good comp for this one. Just looking at raw data, it looks like around 3m previews and probably mid 20s OW. But let us see close to release how its doing. Weird it has fewer shows so far compared to Beekeeper despite better sales overall. 

 

Beekeeper has the $5 tickets coming...and isn't a musical.  So, theaters betting on the Atom deal spurring walk ups as a "why not", especially since there isn't an action movie out over Christmas nor a movie made specifically for males 25+...

[M37]

17 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mean Girls MTC1

Wednesday - 11159/22844 243210.91 125 shows

Previews(T-6) - 11544/219917 188539.84 1234 shows

Friday - 16366/370796 260193.32 2003 shows

 

Its not bad. Previews PS is growing at a fair clip. I am not sure which movie would be a good comp for this one. Just looking at raw data, it looks like around 3m previews and probably mid 20s OW. But let us see close to release how its doing. Weird it has fewer shows so far compared to Beekeeper despite better sales overall. 

I'm just going to note again, the fact that the EA sales are so strong, basically matching the full Thursday preview (which is only now catching up as EA is over 50% capacity) to me is a red flag

 

Reminds me a bit of Don't Worry Darling and the IMAX Live event, which turned a $3.1M total preview into just a $19.3M weekend.  Mean Girls might get to $20M with the help of the holiday from that same $3M+, but would be cautious in expecting a typical walk-up rate in sales and IM

[TheFlatLannister]

On 1/5/2024 at 11:25 AM, M37 said:

With the reported preview of $1.45M, that puts the PSM for this one film for this sample at $764/tix, or that this sample is ~2-3x larger than the previous one [where 1000 tickets sold is equivalent to 300-500 in the old sample]. Need a few more data points to confirm and narrow down the range, but for now can compare sales to previous comps, with an added adjustment of 0.3-0.5x, to give an estimated comp range until the new data set builds up over time

 

On 1/5/2024 at 12:19 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Earlier it was just Orlando. Now he is looking at entire Florida. Should be at least 3x bigger sample as I would expect Miami to be bigger than Orlando. There are many other cities as well. 

Mean girls in the Orlando region is at 840 seats sold compared to the Florida data which is at 2337 seats sold. Close to 3x but we will need more data points to really hone in on how much bigger the new data set is. 

 

Things i've noticed is that Orlando is ridiculously presale heavy (outpacing all other Florida markets by a good margin - Thanks Disney world)

 

Miami is walkup heavy

 

p.s. Orlando wonka comp gives me $2.4M

Edited January 7 by TheFlatLannister

[dallas]

The Beekeeper

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-5

14 tickets sold (+4)

 

(0.086x) of Aquaman 2 - $387,000

 

Still growing, which is promising. IMAX is still carrying the bulk of ticket sales here which could mean a higher previews gross due to a higher ATP. 

 

Also, apologies for the lack of comps. I haven't been tracking for very long so Aquaman 2 is the only reasonable film I can compare this against.