The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

Sales for Lisa Frankenstein tonight near me are absolutely dismal. Main 7:30 show at a popular location only has 10 seats sold. Sub-$5M for the weekend seems more likely than not at this point.

[Wotad]

16 hours ago, M37 said:

 

 

I'll remind everyone that the first Dune (albeit with a Day & Date release) was 61% Male and 55% White.  So for those who are still hoping for say a $90M+ OW, where is that increased audience coming from? Women? Non-white audience? Younger (was also 21% over 45, whereas Logan for example was 83% between 18 and 44)? Or to phrase it another way, can you point to another film at that level and say "this audience will also show up and help propel to higher numbers."

 

  Reveal hidden contents

One advantage of my previous work experience is being on the ground and seeing who is coming to watch these movies. Now I often lack the communicative ability to really dissect the nuance of those audience compositions, but a lot of my comments related to expected growth rate/expected trajectory, PSM, etc are based in that demographic special sauce.

 

And I just don't think the late buying GA crowd - in any form - are going to show up here

 

I mean it's not like all white people and males went to watch it.. can get an increase in those groups? It's not reached the maximum of those demographics. I dont think its going to hit 90m but hoping for 75/80

Edited February 9 by Wotad

[vafrow]

17 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Single screen presales (5 and 4 showings, each including 1 3d) at my 2 locals.  It is not being presold as an expected animated breakout - aka, even at the family chain, this film will need to presell to get more space before opening week - it's not just being given it.

 

Similar for me, but, I also don't expect much allocated at this stage.

 

This comes out right at the start of spring break here. So, I expect minimal presales, as there's no reason to take the kids on a Thursday night when you have to entertain them the following week.

 

It'll probably have multiple screens for every theatre around here.

[jeffthehat]

On 2/7/2024 at 6:26 PM, jeffthehat said:

 

Indiana Valentine's Day T-7

 

MOVIE	TC	SALES	SEATS	SHOWS	GROWTH
Bob Marley	24	1217	15428	96	+9.6%
Madame Web	24	634	24112	128	+7.1%

 

Thursday T-8

 

MOVIE	TC	SALES	SEATS	SHOWS
Bob Marley	24	214	15779	97
Madame Web	24	258	18937	98

 

Marley's doing great here on V-day. Not so much after 

 

Indiana Valentine's Day T-5

 

MOVIE	TC	SALES	SEATS	SHOWS	GROWTH
Bob Marley	28	1647	22823	148	+35.3%
Madame Web	27	829	29756	160	+30.7%

 

Marley almost at 2x Madame Web sales and growing 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Indiana Valentine's Day T-5

 

MOVIE	TC	SALES	SEATS	SHOWS	GROWTH
Bob Marley	28	1647	22823	148	+35.3%
Madame Web	27	829	29756	160	+30.7%

 

Marley almost at 2x Madame Web sales and growing 

doesn’t it carry on behind MW on Thursday in Indiana?

 

OL seems pretty abysmal after a really good VDay, it seems fans are trying to do a big VDay like a homage.

Edited February 9 by leoh

[jeffthehat]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

doesn’t it carry one behind MW on Thursday in Indiana?

 

OL seems pretty abysmal after a really good VDay, it seems fans are trying to do a big and beautiful VDay like a homage

 

yeah it was behind MW for Thursday on yesterday's check. Def lookin like a TCP situation

[vafrow]

I'm coming up to about the one year mark of doing any form of tracking. In that time, I've been helped immensely by people in this thread with advice or guidance, but when you're starting out, it's a little overwhelming. I thought I'd amalgamate some tips to anyone thinking about trying it. Plus, I'm on the couch sick this week, so more than a little bored.

 

-The first question about whether to start tracking is where to start. There's two main methods, one is to track manually, by checking seats sold in the app or ticket sales website. The other is to use a scraper that can check in on a higher volume of theatres and records the data. That takes a certain level of technical savvy, and a proper computer that can run the script.

 

-Regardless of what method you use, there's no right amount of data to capture or right way. Take an approach that works for you. I do manual because I only engage on this site from my phone. I also like seeing actual sales. A scraper is dumping data, which is less fun for me.

 

-Pick a sample that works for you. Again, I like my immediate radius. I know if there's any localized events that would impact sales (like weather, school holidays) or if the demos might be causing something to over or underperform. It also doesn't directly overlap with other trackers. 

 

-Data is best stored in a spreadsheet. As I work on my phone, I keep a Google Sheet. You'll want to easily access comp data when you can. I also found that with time, a well structured spreadsheet can let you capture the data easily, but also give you different metrics. 

 

-You do not need to track every film, and you can track as little as one theatre. Don't bite off more than you can chew. Keep it manageable. It shouldn't become a chore. Especially since something may seem manageable at some level, but become too difficult when a big film hits.

 

-When you start out, you won't have comps, but there's still value in tracking to see growth rates or other patterns. Someone starting out will not have the same depth of data, but all data is good data. And it doesn't take long to build up a good level of history. 

 

-Figuring out how to post the findings in this thread is actually one of the harder parts. Some people post tables. I have a general template that I copy and paste from the previous day. I personally like replying to my last tracking post for the film. That makes it easy for someone to follow the trend lines if they so desire. Try and ensure your results are well labeled, and indicates what area you're tracking, what type of theatre, etc. If you're trying to not dock yourself, you can just give general details (large Midwestern city suburb, etc). 

 

-Don't be afraid to ask questions to others. People are helpful, and I've only found encouragement from the community.

 

-Lastly, this is a fun thread. If you follow the box office at a level of depth, you'll find yourself here eventually. And when you come here frequently enough, you eventually want to contribute something to it. If you're thinking about tracking I recommend trying it. Even if it's just for your own purpose at first.

 

[abracadabra1998]

38 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I'm coming up to about the one year mark of doing any form of tracking. In that time, I've been helped immensely by people in this thread with advice or guidance, but when you're starting out, it's a little overwhelming. I thought I'd amalgamate some tips to anyone thinking about trying it. Plus, I'm on the couch sick this week, so more than a little bored.

 

-The first question about whether to start tracking is where to start. There's two main methods, one is to track manually, by checking seats sold in the app or ticket sales website. The other is to use a scraper that can check in on a higher volume of theatres and records the data. That takes a certain level of technical savvy, and a proper computer that can run the script.

 

-Regardless of what method you use, there's no right amount of data to capture or right way. Take an approach that works for you. I do manual because I only engage on this site from my phone. I also like seeing actual sales. A scraper is dumping data, which is less fun for me.

 

-Pick a sample that works for you. Again, I like my immediate radius. I know if there's any localized events that would impact sales (like weather, school holidays) or if the demos might be causing something to over or underperform. It also doesn't directly overlap with other trackers. 

 

-Data is best stored in a spreadsheet. As I work on my phone, I keep a Google Sheet. You'll want to easily access comp data when you can. I also found that with time, a well structured spreadsheet can let you capture the data easily, but also give you different metrics. 

 

-You do not need to track every film, and you can track as little as one theatre. Don't bite off more than you can chew. Keep it manageable. It shouldn't become a chore. Especially since something may seem manageable at some level, but become too difficult when a big film hits.

 

-When you start out, you won't have comps, but there's still value in tracking to see growth rates or other patterns. Someone starting out will not have the same depth of data, but all data is good data. And it doesn't take long to build up a good level of history. 

 

-Figuring out how to post the findings in this thread is actually one of the harder parts. Some people post tables. I have a general template that I copy and paste from the previous day. I personally like replying to my last tracking post for the film. That makes it easy for someone to follow the trend lines if they so desire. Try and ensure your results are well labeled, and indicates what area you're tracking, what type of theatre, etc. If you're trying to not dock yourself, you can just give general details (large Midwestern city suburb, etc). 

 

-Don't be afraid to ask questions to others. People are helpful, and I've only found encouragement from the community.

 

-Lastly, this is a fun thread. If you follow the box office at a level of depth, you'll find yourself here eventually. And when you come here frequently enough, you eventually want to contribute something to it. If you're thinking about tracking I recommend trying it. Even if it's just for your own purpose at first.

 

 

I was about to come here to bitch about Lisa Frankenstein’s Thursday numbers not being reported so reading this instead was a pleasant breath of fresh air  

 

Thanks for all you do @vafrow!

[jeffthehat]

On 2/8/2024 at 3:36 PM, jeffthehat said:

 

MALCO

 

Dune: Part Two 

 

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	-21	595	9684	54
Fri	-22	886	22401	129
Sat	-23	842	24240	138

 

Thu Comp
1.17x The Marvels T-21 (10 theaters) = $7.73m

---

 

Should note this chain has a lot of blocked seats counted as sales (3-4 per show I'd guess). So the Thu to Fri/Sat ratios are inflated. A like comparison is probably something like 595/630/550. 

 

MALCO

 

Dune: Part Two

 

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	-20	603	9684	54	+1.3%
Fri	-21	939	22401	129	+6.0%
Sat	-22	862	24240	138	+2.4%

 

Thursday Comp

1.18x The Marvels T-20 (10 theaters) = $7.78m

 

 

Edited February 9 by jeffthehat

[keysersoze123]

Panda looks meh so far. Again there is little reason for this movie to have big presales 4 weeks to release. We have see where it is in final week. That said I would be surprised if it out opens last one. This is the kind of movie that will families waiting for it to hit streaming. Since its universal and if its not opening big, it does not take that long to hit streaming.

 

Dune 2 should be favored to win its 2nd weekend.

[TheFlatLannister]

Not impressed with Kung Fu panda at all. Was expecting a breakout but nothing so far

[lorddemaxus]

Idk what people expected from Panda 4 but I expected the same thing that happened to the last movie to happen here. DreamWorks gives it an unceremonious release with the bare minimum marketing and has a pretty mediocre performance

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	4273	104695	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

258

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1777

*55 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(1.573x) of Oppenheimer $16.51M 

(1.026x) of Indy 5 $7.39M 

(2.405x) of Wonka $8.42M 

(2.238x) of Aquaman 2 $10.07M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.60M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	4403	104695	4.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

130

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1834

*57 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(1.600x) of Oppenheimer $16.80M 

(1.037x) of Indy 5 $7.47M 

(2.420x) of Wonka $8.47M 

(2.261x) of Aquaman 2 $10.18M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.73M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	4060	93918	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

226

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1046

*69 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(1.067x) of Blue Beetle $3.52M 

(0.905x) of AquaMan 2 $4.07M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.80M

 

Continuously rising against comps 

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	4252	93918	4.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

192

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1147

*101 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.147x) of Blue Beetle $3.68M 

(0.943x) of AquaMan 2 $4.24M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.96M

 

Still rising. Close to $4M now

[cannastop]

I personally estimate Turning Red will have a $240,000 Friday. Compared to Soul's $120,000 Friday. Could be wrong though. Just based on my snooping on the shows.

Edited February 10 by cannastop

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-27, Day 1 taken at 6 PM):

Day: T-27	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	63	26	26	9083	0.29

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4	4	15.38
MTC1:		22	22	84.62
Marcus:		4	4	15.38
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.55x Wonka: $1.94 Million

1.08x Trolls Band Together (w/ EA): $2.68 Million

 

Average: $2.31 Million

 

I will add Wish at T-25 and Haunted Mansion at T-21 as comps, but obviously not the best start, as others have pointed out. It's animation though and will skew young, and I didn't really expect a crazy rush from adults (versus something like say, Shrek or even a Pixar flick). We shall see

[DAJK]

Lisa Frankenstein is looking ABYSMAL here. Thursday numbers in my area would have suggested 400-500k previews. I’d guess Friday is going to be 2M or under.

 

Bob Marley… woah, those VDay sales are STRONG. Wouldn’t be surprised with 7-8M OD.

[filmlover]

I never understood the rather huge predictions for Kung Fu Panda 4. The franchise seemed like it would explode after the first one broke out in 2008 and then it just...never did for whatever reason. Those deflating and uneventful numbers would explain the increasingly lengthy gaps between the sequels (3 years between 1 and 2, 5 years between 2 and 3, 8 years between 3 and 4).

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Lisa Frankenstein is looking ABYSMAL here. Thursday numbers in my area would have suggested 400-500k previews. I’d guess Friday is going to be 2M or under.

 

Bob Marley… woah, those VDay sales are STRONG. Wouldn’t be surprised with 7-8M OD.

The major theater near me hasn't even sold 30 seats 10 minutes before showtime. They might as well had just made it a Peacock exclusive.

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
468	1040	91798	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

193

 

COMPS

T-27

 

(0.974x) of Trolls 3 $1.27M

 

It's doing crazy good in Miami and poor in Orlando🤔