The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 30193/55706 599040.77 182 shows +1227

Previews(T-11) - 61407/517510 1207383.05 2591 shows +1856

Friday - 60023/796075 1176442.71 4011 shows +2729

Saturday -  62131/838107 1165602.25 4227 shows +3081

 

I think Early shows have started to accelerate as its 4 days earlier. But it will run out of good seats very soon almost everywhere. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 31424/55706 621949.46 182 shows +1231

Previews(T-10) - 63782/527826 1250924.82 2641 shows +2375

Friday - 63251/797532 1236121.05 4017 shows +3228

Saturday -  65259/839667 1219971.07 4234 shows +3128

[HummingLemon496]

Dune gotta do exactly 12*7 or it's a bust 

[Porthos]

On 2/18/2024 at 11:44 PM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	174	22687	25187	2500	9.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

70

 

T-11 Comps         REVAMPED CHARTS EDITION - STILL USE WITH CAUTION!!!

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.95		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		11757	21.26%		13.66m
Thor 4	34.80		202	7184		0/228	24416/31600	22.73%		16962	14.74%		10.09m
BP2	32.83		200	7616		2/296	29538/37154	20.50%		16800	14.88%		9.19m
AM3	48.29		162	5177		0/238	27617/32794	15.79%		10475	23.87%		8.45m
GOTG3	64.38		111	3883		0/203	25171/29054	13.36%		10750	23.26%		11.27m
TGM	51.57		235	4848		0/259	31085/35933	13.49%		11474	21.79%		9.93m
JWD	83.50		182	2994		0/191	22380/25374	11.80%		10966	22.80%		15.03m
Ava 2	75.51		177	3311		0/145	18173/21484	15.41%		8986	27.82%		12.84m
Wick 4	187.55		49	1333		0/95	12458/13791	9.67%		5448	45.89%		16.69m
Fast X	205.59		48	1216		0/178	26494/27710	4.39%		4122	60.65%		15.42m
TLM	134.19		129	1863		0/154	20858/22721	8.20%		6561	38.10%		13.82m
Indy 5	175.69		70	1423		0/128	18818/20241	7.03%		4767	52.44%		12.65m
Dune	334.67		46	747		0/75	11084/11831	6.31%		2915	85.76%		17.07m
Oppy	179.21		72	1395		0/57	7439/8834	15.79%		4621	54.10%		18.82m
Bats Tue EA T-7	103.31		2	664		0/3	151/815	81.47%		743	90.85%		2.07m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       700/8313  [8.42% sold]
Matinee:    92/2840  [3.24% | 3.68% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:         686/814  [84.28% sold] [+11 tickets]
Thr:    1814/24373  [7.44% sold] [+59 tickets]
PLF:    2028/9825  [20.64% | 81.12% of all tickets sold]

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	173	22514	25091	2577	10.27%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	96
Total Seats Sold Today	77

 

T-10 Comps         REVAMPED CHARTS EDITION - STILL USE WITH CAUTION!!!

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.62		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		11757	21.92%		13.58m
Thor 4	35.00		178	7362		0/228	24235/31597	23.30%		16962	15.19%		10.15m
BP2	32.97		201	7817		2/295	29214/37031	21.11%		16800	15.34%		9.23m
AM3	48.45		142	5319		0/238	27475/32794	16.22%		10475	24.60%		8.48m
GOTG3	63.85		153	4036		0/205	25321/29357	13.75%		10750	23.97%		11.17m
TGM	51.15		190	5038		0/259	30895/35933	14.02%		11474	22.46%		9.85m
JWD	80.89		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	23.50%		14.56m
Ava 2	74.20		162	3473		0/145	18011/21484	16.17%		8986	28.68%		12.61m
Wick 4	185.13		59	1392		0/95	12399/13791	10.09%		5448	47.30%		16.48m
Fast X	198.54		82	1298		0/178	26412/27710	4.68%		4122	62.52%		14.89m
TLM	128.53		142	2005		0/153	20609/22614	8.87%		6561	39.28%		13.24m
Indy 5	167.66		114	1537		0/134	19034/20571	7.47%		4767	54.06%		12.07m
Dune	310.48		83	830		0/75	11001/11831	7.02%		2915	88.40%		15.83m
Oppy	172.03		103	1498		0/57	7336/8834	16.96%		4621	55.77%		18.06m
Bats Tue EA T-6	103.00		2	666		0/3	149/815	81.72%		743	92.33%		2.06m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       715/8220  [8.70% sold]
Matinee:    93/2840  [3.27% | 3.61% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:         686/814  [84.28% sold] [+0 tickets]
Thr:    1891/24277  [7.79% sold] [+77 tickets]
PLF:    2080/9825  [21.17% | 80.71% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

13 hours ago, M37 said:

Dune Part 2 T-11 Thursday Preview Comps

Not much of a change from first update

 

Sure seems to me like $80M OW is the target [$70-$90M], probably more likely to go over than under (but not yet "locked" IMO), though $90M+ going to take some work aka a really strong GA pull and finish (or an IM decently higher than the Avatar 2/Batman/Oppy ~8x)

 

Also

  Hide contents

Still true, and we're at - or just turning the corner on - the bolded

 

On 2/5/2024 at 11:24 AM, M37 said:

Just going to plant a quick flag ....

 

All-in-all, I expect Dune II to be a relatively boring track. There will probably be some time in the middle where daily sales are solid, comps drift up, and some people will start to dream of bigger numbers with an accelerated high-pace finish ... but IMO its more likely it winds up a more tepid final few days (relatively speaking) and we'll circle back in the same range everyone has it at now.  Like Avatar 2, but at half the total volume (for Thursday, +EA)

 

 

FWIW, I agree with the reminded caution over dreaming of bigger numbers. For one thing, 80m-85m (going off of "probably more likely to go over than under" observation) is really good.  That'd be around double of the first one's OW and yes with all of the very real qualifiers in play (day&date, sequel, more showtimes) that's still a very healthy accomplishment.

 

No one should be upset if this does, say, 75m OW.  Or even 70m.

 

For another, I will note is that... Hmmm... How to put this without folks overreacting?  I think I would have liked to see a tiny bit more of sales out of Sacramento the last couple of days as the social media embargo fades from memory.  They haven't been bad (again, want to stop any over-reaction in their tracks), but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't personally expecting/looking for a little bit more oomph.  Now all sorts of factors in play here. Relatively early social media lift.  Lift mid-day on a Thur afternoon, so weekend factors in play (and a holiday weekend, if not a major one, at that).  Plus just being on sale for a long time.

 

And, as you know, I've been leaning toward double digit Thursday numbers for a very long time in this pre-sale run and I'm not seeing anything to dissuade me from that.  But I'm also not seeing signs of takeoff from the GA yet. 

 

I suppose that's what the four paragraphs above are really commenting on.  This social media lift was the first real chance/test we had to see what the GA-adjacent/fence sitters might make of reaction to Dune: Part Two and so far it hasn't been a big fat yawn and it hasn't been a major rocket fueled takeoff.  Annoyingly enough, it's right in that range where it is open to all sorts of interpretation.  Will the review lift move the needle?  WHO KNOWS?  Especially since the very first moves of acceleration would be happening soon.  But that's the next big test.  Or tell, if one prefers.  And I for one will be interested in seeing just what happens on Wed/Thr/Fri as the public digests the new info out there.

Edited February 20 by Porthos

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-11 Thursday previews and T-7 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 489

New Sales: 14

Growth: 2.9%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 27.2

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 6/2

Early Evening: 380/9

Late Evening: 103/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 123/7

IMAX: 250/4

VIP: 107/5

4dx: 8/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.347 of Marvels for $8.9M

3.705 of HG: BoSS for $21.3M

7.641x Madame Web for $45.8M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 495

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 34

Growth: 7.4%

 

Growth for previews has slowed down, but, it's also a weeke update over a long weekend. General caveat to ignore the two outlier comps. I'm keeping them there just to see when and how those come to something normal.

 

Biggest story is that the EA shows are picking up. It makes sense that if the early reactions are going to trigger die hards to do anything, it's to see it early.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-10 Thursday previews and T-6 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 509

New Sales: 20

Growth: 4.1%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 28.3

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 6/2

Early Evening: 397/9

Late Evening: 106/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 134/7

IMAX: 259/4

VIP: 107/5

4dx: 9/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.350 of Marvels for $8.9M

3.439 of HG: BoSS for $19.8M

6.284x Madame Web for $37.7M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 503

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 8

Growth: 1.6%

 

Nothing too interesting. Although, we'll get updated showtimes tonight for Thursday night, so it will be interesting to see if more showtimes get allocated.

 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-18 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 25

New Sales: 7

Growth: 38%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.8

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 2/2

Early Evening: 18/5

Late Evening: 4/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 17/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 2/1

 

Comps

2.778x Wonka for $9.7M

 

Sales picked up a bit unexpectedly.

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-17 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 28

New Sales: 3

Growth: 12%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 3/2

Early Evening: 18/5

Late Evening: 6/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 19/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 3/1

 

Comps

3.111x Wonka for $10.9M

 

Again, not much to update.

[grim22]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No one should be upset if this does, say, 75m OW.  Or even 70m.

 

 

 

@CJohn right now

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Remember guys a film opened $357M 5 years ago.

[SchumacherFTW]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Remember guys a film opened $357M 5 years ago.

Ah yes, something that should be a common occurrence by now 😜

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

@CJohn right now

 

70M is floppish territory IMO. This needs to beat at least the OW of John Wick 4.

[charlie Jatinder]

Just realized Dune will overindex in Canada, specifically in Quebec. So adjust things a bit.

[vafrow]

19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Just realized Dune will overindex in Canada, specifically in Quebec. So adjust things a bit.

 

You feel the Villeneuve factor will be that impactful, even outside of Quebec? 

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

You feel the Villeneuve factor will be that impactful, even outside of Quebec? 

Quebec for sure. Need to check for others.

[DAJK]

15 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

You feel the Villeneuve factor will be that impactful, even outside of Quebec? 

Yes. Dune Part 1 was massive in Canada. Equivalent to 80-100M openings at all the theaters I track.

[charlie Jatinder]

Dune did $19m in Canada out of $108M.

 

Quebec did $5.5M, so even the rest of it did overindex a lot.

[kayumanggi]

 

[ando]

I imagine Toronto Scotiabank is over indexing. 3430 tickets sold for just IMAX opening weekend. (+129 from 2 days ago)

 

Thu- 698

Fri- 839

Sat- 1018

Sun- 875

[vafrow]

That's surprising a bit, but, actually really nice to see that he's got that support out here.

 

@DAJK did you track much in southern Ontario?

 

It hasn't felt like my area is really overindexing, but I don't have strong comps. 

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

"some"

 

Et tu, Variety? 

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

That's surprising a bit, but, actually really nice to see that he's got that support out here.

 

@DAJK did you track much in southern Ontario?

 

It hasn't felt like my area is really overindexing, but I don't have strong comps. 

Just British Columbia, mostly Vancouver and Vancouver Island.