The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/26/2024 at 3:22 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ezra	T-4	Jax	3	7	1	1	489	0.20%
		Phx	3	8	0	0	367	0.00%
		Ral	4	12	4	4	588	0.68%
	Total		10	27	5	5	1,444	0.35%
HAIKYU	T-4	Jax	4	11	72	72	899	8.01%
		Phx	6	18	111	111	1,491	7.44%
		Ral	3	9	66	66	546	12.09%
	Total		13	38	249	249	2,936	8.48%
In a Violent	T-4	Jax	2	4	4	4	158	2.53%
		Phx	4	11	12	12	529	2.27%
		Ral	1	2	5	5	100	5.00%
	Total		7	17	21	21	787	2.67%
In a Violent (EA)	T-3	Jax	2	2	19	19	229	8.30%
		Phx	1	1	41	41	107	38.32%
	Total		4	4	60	60	336	17.86%
Summer Camp	T-4	Jax	4	10	6	6	692	0.87%
		Phx	3	8	0	0	778	0.00%
		Ral	2	6	0	0	348	0.00%
	Total		9	24	6	6	1,818	0.33%

 

Haikyu T-4 comps

 - Slime - 3.891x (973k)

 - Spy x Family - 1x (670k)

 - JJK:0 - .229x (674k)

 - Demon Slayer 2 (OD) - .176x (875k)

 - Dragon Ball - .238x (858k)

 - MHA (OD) - .257x (927k)

 

In a Violent Nature (Total) T-4 comps

 - Last Night in Soho (Total) - .862x (575k)

 - Last Voyage - .91x (792k)

 - Resident Evil - .802x (668k)

 - Men - 1.761x (885k)

 - Antlers - 2.132x (836k)

 - Firestarter - 1.93x (740k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ezra	T-2	Jax	3	7	0	1	489	0.20%
		Phx	3	8	4	4	367	1.09%
		Ral	4	12	0	4	588	0.68%
	Total		10	27	4	9	1,444	0.62%
HAIKYU	T-2	Jax	4	11	14	95	899	10.57%
		Phx	6	21	12	126	2,721	4.63%
		Ral	3	9	9	79	546	14.47%
	Total		13	41	35	300	4,166	7.20%
In a Violent	T-2	Jax	2	5	4	8	200	4.00%
		Phx	4	11	2	15	529	2.84%
		Ral	2	4	3	10	296	3.38%
	Total		8	20	9	33	1,025	3.22%
In a Violent (EA)	T-1	Jax	2	2	1	21	229	9.17%
		Phx	1	1	7	50	107	46.73%
	Total		4	4	8	71	336	21.13%
Summer Camp	T-2	Jax	4	10	0	6	692	0.87%
		Phx	4	9	3	3	824	0.36%
		Ral	2	6	0	1	348	0.29%
	Total		10	25	3	10	1,864	0.54%

 

Haikyu T-2 adjusted comps

 - Slime - 3.333x (983k)

 - One Piece - .43x (613k)

 - Spy x Family - 1.056x (708k)

 - JJK:0 - .222x (654k)

 - Demon Slayer 2 (OD) - .16x (797k)

 - Dragon Ball - .244x (880k)

 - MHA (OD) - .257x (927k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 814k

 

In a Violent Nature (Total) T-2 adjusted comps

 - Last Night in Soho (Total) - .712x (476k)

 - Last Voyage - .759x (660k)

 - Resident Evil - .748x (623k)

 - Men - 1.106x (556k)

 - Antlers - 1.733x (680k)

 - Firestarter - 1.169x (449k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 568k

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/26/2024 at 3:27 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bad Boys 4	T-11	Jax	5	56	6	132	9,816	1.34%
		Phx	6	39	6	98	7,802	1.26%
		Ral	8	44	9	103	6,582	1.56%
	Total		19	139	21	333	24,200	1.38%
Bad Boys 4 (EA)	T-10	Jax	3	3	2	12	855	1.40%
Watchers	T-11	Jax	5	21	11	11	1,458	0.75%
		Phx	6	20	15	15	2,182	0.69%
		Ral	7	21	3	3	2,142	0.14%
	Total		18	62	29	29	5,782	0.50%

 

Bad Boys (Total) T-11 adjusted comps

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .404x (3.57m)

 - F9 - .463x (3.49m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - .95x (4.17m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .618x (5.57m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - .799x (5.38m)

 - John Wick 4 - .374x (3.33m)

 

Watchers T-11 adjusted comps

 - Abigail - 1.115x (1.115m)

 - Strangers - .707x (849k)

 - Last Voyage - 1.208x (1.05m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bad Boys 4	T-9	Jax	5	56	13	145	9,816	1.48%
		Phx	6	39	4	105	7,802	1.35%
		Ral	8	44	3	109	6,582	1.66%
	Total		19	139	20	359	24,200	1.48%
Bad Boys 4 (EA)	T-8	Jax	3	3	4	18	855	2.11%
Watchers	T-9	Jax	5	21	0	10	1,458	0.69%
		Phx	6	20	2	17	2,182	0.78%
		Ral	7	21	0	5	2,142	0.23%
	Total		18	62	2	32	5,782	0.55%

 

Bad Boys (Total) T-9 adjusted comps

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .396x (3.48m)

 - F9 - .436x (3.28m)

 - Furiosa - 1.484x (5.19m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - .95x (4.18m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .573x (5.17m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - .79x (5.32m)

 - John Wick 4 - .36x (3.21m)

 - Equalizer 3 - 2.45x (9.3m)

 - Creed 3 (Total) - 1.12x (6.12m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.34m

 

Watchers T-9 adjusted comps

 - Abigail - 1.143x (1.143m)

 - Strangers - .667x (800k)

 - Last Voyage - 1.231x (1.07m)

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bad Boys 4	T-9	Jax	5	56	13	145	9,816	1.48%
		Phx	6	39	4	105	7,802	1.35%
		Ral	8	44	3	109	6,582	1.66%
	Total		19	139	20	359	24,200	1.48%
Bad Boys 4 (EA)	T-8	Jax	3	3	4	18	855	2.11%
Watchers	T-9	Jax	5	21	0	10	1,458	0.69%
		Phx	6	20	2	17	2,182	0.78%
		Ral	7	21	0	5	2,142	0.23%
	Total		18	62	2	32	5,782	0.55%

 

Bad Boys (Total) T-9 adjusted comps

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .396x (3.48m)

 - F9 - .436x (3.28m)

 - Furiosa - 1.484x (5.19m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - .95x (4.18m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .573x (5.17m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - .79x (5.32m)

 - John Wick 4 - .36x (3.21m)

 - Equalizer 3 - 2.45x (9.3m)

 - Creed 3 (Total) - 1.12x (6.12m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.34m

 

Watchers T-9 adjusted comps

 - Abigail - 1.143x (1.143m)

 - Strangers - .667x (800k)

 - Last Voyage - 1.231x (1.07m)

If Equalizer and Creed are the best comps as some have said for Bad Boys then pretty dam good.

[Boxofficerules]

Is In A Violent Nature getting a limited release?

[el sid]

First the two new releases of the week, Summer Camp and In a Violent Nature. 

Idk if both are limited releases? 

The presales of the two movies (counted yesterday for Thursday) were very different.

 

Summer Camp has shows in 3 of my 7 theaters and had not more than 7 sold tickets. So so far completely under the radar.

Comp: Book Club 2 (6.7M OW) had also on Monday for Thursday 25 sold tickets in 5 theaters.

 

In a Violent Nature had also only showtimes in 4 of the 7 theaters but already 123 sold tickets. Doing by far best in the AMC in LA with 113 sold tickets. But also in the AMC Barton Creek in Texas (with those sales included it would be 139 sold tickets) it had 16 sold tickets. So where it gets shows, it does fine. 🤔

 

Loose comps, loose because these films were all wide releases; all counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday: Tarot (715k from previews) had 97 sold tickets in 5 theaters,

The Invitation (775k from previews) had 96 in 7 theaters, 

Pearl (1.3M OD) had 102 sold tickets in 6 theaters 

and The Strangers: Chapter One (1.2M from previews) had 215 sold tickets in 6 theaters.

Edited May 28 by el sid

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Is In A Violent Nature getting a limited release?

 

15 minutes ago, el sid said:

First the two new releases of the week, Summer Camp and In a Violent Nature. 

Idk if both are limited releases? 

The presales of the two movies (counted yesterday for Thursday) were very different.

 

Summer Camp has shows in 3 of my 7 theaters shows and had not more than 7 sold tickets. So so far completely under the radar.

Comp: Book Club 2 (6.7M OW) had also on Monday for Thursday 25 sold tickets in 5 theaters.

 

In a Violent Nature had also only showtimes in 4 of the 7 theaters but already 123 sold tickets. Doing by far best in the AMC in LA with 113 sold tickets. But also in the AMC Barton Creek in Texas (with those sales included it would be 139 sold tickets) it had 16 sold tickets. So where it gets showtimes, it does fine. 🤔

 

 

I've been meaning to look at shows since I wasn't able to run it last week.  It looks like all of the releases this week are fairly limited.  Here's what I am seeing listed so far, which is probably ~90% of final (I think...I don't usually run on Wednesday)

 

In a Violent Nature - 440 TC (plus ~200 early shows)

Summer Camp - 653 TC

Ezra - 617 TC

Haikyu - 816 TC

[keysersoze123]

On 5/25/2024 at 10:52 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews -142645/1268549 2680740.17 7771 shows

Friday -  59733/1478057 1163486.67 8225 shows 

 

Still really strong 3 days later. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 146573/1268251 2751759.85 7769 shows 

Friday - 62206/1478057 1208985.12 8225 shows

 

Previews was taken late yesterday and Friday data was just now. Still going quite strong. very impressive after huge OD. 

[The Wild Eric]

Quorum Updates

Twisters T-53: 46.87% Awareness, 55.02% Interest

The Forge T-88: 13.3% Awareness, 36.58% Interest

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-102: 57.29% Awareness, 64.67% Interest

Speak No Evil T-109: 20.25% Awareness, 47.81% Interest

Here T-184: 8.33% Awareness, 34.17% Interest

Kraven the Hunter T-200: 27.52% Awareness, 39.64% Interest

 

Bad Boys for Life T-11: 64.06% Awareness, 58.03% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 88% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M

Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 45% chance of 40M, 31% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M

Medium Interest: 75% chance of 20M, 58% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 50M

 

The Watchers T-11: 28.53% Awareness, 44.61% Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 45% chance of 10M

 

Horizon: An American Saga Part 1 T-32: 20.91% Awareness, 36.31% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 32% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M
Medium Interest: 50% chance of 10M

[ChipDerby]

13 minutes ago, Eric Lasagna said:

Quorum Updates

Twisters T-53: 46.87% Awareness, 55.02% Interest

The Forge T-88: 13.3% Awareness, 36.58% Interest

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-102: 57.29% Awareness, 64.67% Interest

Speak No Evil T-109: 20.25% Awareness, 47.81% Interest

Here T-184: 8.33% Awareness, 34.17% Interest

Kraven the Hunter T-200: 27.52% Awareness, 39.64% Interest

 

Bad Boys for Life T-11: 64.06% Awareness, 58.03% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 88% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M

Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 45% chance of 40M, 31% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M

Medium Interest: 75% chance of 20M, 58% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 50M

 

The Watchers T-11: 28.53% Awareness, 44.61% Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 45% chance of 10M

 

Horizon: An American Saga Part 1 T-32: 20.91% Awareness, 36.31% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 32% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M
Medium Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

Is there a correlation between the % interest and the total multiplier? I assume that's the interest of the people aware, so does the higher interest pump up the opening weekend and worsen the legs? Does the higher awareness affect the legs?

[el sid]

Bad Boys 4, counted yesterday for Thursday had 395 sold tickets with shows in 6 theaters (the small AMC Lakeline in Texas is still missing). 10 days left.

 

For this movie I have great comps but mostly counted in their release weeks so this is rather a first assessment of the situation. The IMO best comps are bold.

Comps: Bad Boys for Life (6.36M from previews) had on Monday of the release week 915 sold tickets = 43% at the moment for Bad Boys 4 with 7 days left to come closer or maybe overtake. My guess is that BB4 could have 800-1000k tickets by next Monday, so it could be pretty much on par with BBfL.

Uncharted (3.7M) had with 9 days left 658 sold tickets.

Furiosa (3.5M) had with 13 days left 1301 sold tickets but finally it were only 2.482 because of the weak jumps in its last week (and BB4 will have way better walks-ups).

Expendables 4 (750k) had on Monday of the release week 130 sold tickets. 

The Beekeeper (2.4M) had on Monday of the release week (= 7 days left for BB4) 207 sold tickets. 

Equalizer 3 (3.8M) had also on Monday of the release week (= also 7 days left) 431 sold tickets. 

GxK (9.2M) had with 10 days left 771 sold tickets = 4.7M at the moment for BB4.

And Creed III (5.45M) had with 7 days left 417 sold tickets. 

 

Similar to other reports here: BB4 does not have stellar presales and after several disappointments I shouldn't exaggerate but compared to the best comps it looks quite good for BB4 as you can see. 

 

Edited May 28 by el sid

[keysersoze123]

On 5/23/2024 at 1:37 PM, YM! said:

I do imagine that some of the main demographics for this are more walkup based. Isn’t MTC2 Hispanic-heavy, how is it doing over there?

@YM!

Bad Boys 4 MTC2

Early Shows - 147/2566 2567.80 20 shows

Previews - 5469/368671 78791.182575 shows

 

Presales are again not that much at this point. I think its not going to hit the heights of last movie. That was anyway Pre-COVID plus Will Smith's equity is down from that time as well. 

[Maggie]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@YM!

Bad Boys 4 MTC2

Early Shows - 147/2566 2567.80 20 shows

Previews - 5469/368671 78791.182575 shows

 

Presales are again not that much at this point. I think its not going to hit the heights of last movie. That was anyway Pre-COVID plus Will Smith's equity is down from that time as well. 

Bad Boys 3 was also the return of franchise after 17 years. This is a simple sequel

[keysersoze123]

 

Bad Boys OW > Deadpool & Wolverine confirmed by QuoLOLrum. 

[The Wild Eric]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Bad Boys OW > Deadpool & Wolverine confirmed by QuoLOLrum. 

That is very much not what that data implies whatsoever, and I’ve explained this numerous times already, but go off I guess. 🙄 

[Porthos]

Have to admit, I'm finding the "lol Quorum" posts tiring as well.  They're a data point (or rather a set of data points) that some folks find useful and others don't.  But, really now, do we really need to be constantly belittling them?  Especially since some people do in fact find them useful?

 

Just roll your eyes and move on if you think they aren't adding much to the discussion here.

 

(I do reserve the right to keep making the occasional "lol Deadline" post because traditions are important. )

Edited May 28 by Porthos

[YM!]

No tracking tonight for me, swamped with work

[AnthonyJPHer]

Deadpool and Wolverine

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS -

Previous Update: 1,029

New Update: 1,578

Growth: 549 tickets (or 53.3% increase)

 

Extremely strong growth from OD. We have a monster on our hands here people. Buuut. Let me temper the excitement somewhat. The Friday numbers are good, stronger than Inside Out 2 by a considerable margin. However Inside Out 2 is looking very backloaded. This is looking extremely presales heavy right now. 
 

FRIDAY - 

 

TICKETS SOLD: 1,700 tickets. Much more than IO2’s 1,200 tickets. But here lies the problem. There is only 122 tickets separating Thursday and Friday for Deadpool and Wolverine, and for IO2, there is 500 tickets between the two days for that movie. This far out I’m not freaking out. I think the gap will increase. It just alarmed me a little. I still think it’s going to be massive though. Just a word of caution. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

58 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Deadpool and Wolverine

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS -

Previous Update: 1,029

New Update: 1,578

Growth: 549 tickets (or 53.3% increase)

 

Extremely strong growth from OD. We have a monster on our hands here people. Buuut. Let me temper the excitement somewhat. The Friday numbers are good, stronger than Inside Out 2 by a considerable margin. However Inside Out 2 is looking very backloaded. This is looking extremely presales heavy right now. 
 

FRIDAY - 

 

TICKETS SOLD: 1,700 tickets. Much more than IO2’s 1,200 tickets. But here lies the problem. There is only 122 tickets separating Thursday and Friday for Deadpool and Wolverine, and for IO2, there is 500 tickets between the two days for that movie. This far out I’m not freaking out. I think the gap will increase. It just alarmed me a little. I still think it’s going to be massive though. Just a word of caution. 

That is normal, I think everyone is factoring it in. MCU films are more preview heavy than Pixar.

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

Bad Boys

 

Thursday 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
537	2163	105293	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

87

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

COMPS

T-10

(0.644x) of Godzilla x Kong $6.12M

(1.058x) of Apes $5.29M 

(1.626x) of Fall Guy $3.74M 
Comps AVG: $5.05M 

 

Steady pace, no acceleration yet. Switch to G x K since that had super strong walkups and Bad Boys 4 will likely replicate this 

FLORIDA 

Bad Boys

 

Thursday 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
543	2269	106460	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

106

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

COMPS

T-9

(0.655x) of Godzilla x Kong $6.22M

(1.070x) of Apes $5.35M 

(1.634x) of Fall Guy $3.76M 
Comps AVG: $5.11M 

[el sid]

When it comes to The Quorum.com: E.g. the awareness normally rises over the weeks before a film is released (so Deadpool & Wolverine will probably still rise and has already very good percentages) but their charts also showed the stagnation or even decrease of buzz for certain films. Of course they're not always right (they dont have daily trackers like we have who cover many regions or somebody like @charlie Jatinder, @Porthos including his dark magic or @keysersoze123 etc. 😉) but overall IMO their data is helpful, also because it's a mirror of the hype around a movie over the weeks and months before the release and it's the same here. Some films first have great buzz e.g. because of a well received trailer but over the weeks not much happens anymore and that is covered.

Edited May 28 by el sid