The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews(T-2) -  69725/750482 1246254.55 4152 shows +13927

Friday - 109479/1370875 1842437.22 7774 shows +29305

 

Solid but not a spectacular increase I would say. Still on course to the numbers I mentioned yesterday. 

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 97059/767811 1697677.62 4264 shows +27334

Friday - 147848/1402980 2452822.83 7982 shows +38369

 

I flipped the order of runs and so friday is 22ish hours of data while previews is 26hrs of data. Still very impressive growth for T-1 and guarantees double digit previews. In fact I expect it to cross 11m in previews. ~125m OW is what I am seeing for now. Let us see how walkups go tomorrow to further hone it. Friday will be a monster day for sure. 

[keysersoze123]

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Fan shows (6/16) - 10048/54360 157733.24 392 shows

 

I expect it to be near sellout close to showtime. So around 600K ish. That said for Inside Out Sunday BO it would be just a noise 🙂

[dallas]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

In fact I expect it to cross 11m in previews. ~125m OW is what I am seeing for now. 

[Rorschach]

On 6/12/2024 at 12:35 AM, Rorschach said:

Inside Out 2 (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 202/4,033 (5% sold) [+39]

4 IMAX showings: 33/1,552

3 XD Showings: 6/714

2 3D showings: 4/220

16 2D showings: 159/1,547

 

Comps:

IF: $7.21 mil

Garfield: $12.15 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $12.78 mil

Average: $10.71 mil

Average (minus Apes): $9.68 mil

 

Friday: 512/6,020 (8.5% sold) [+122]

5 IMAX showings: 55/1,940

4 XD showings: 9/952

4 3D showings: 21/390

27 2D showings: 427/2,738

 

Comps:

IF: $67.28 mil

Garfield: $82.95 mil

Apes: $64.28 mil

Average: $71.5 mil

Average (minus Apes): $75.12 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 714/10,053 (7.1% sold) [+161]

 

Comps:

IF: $64.71 mil

Garfield: $83.36 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $72.34 mil

Average: $73.47 mil

Average (minus Apes): $74.04 mil

 

I messed up on counting yesterday, so if you're wondering why the new ticket sale numbers don't quite add up from my previous post, that's the reason. 

 

Anyway, this was a very great day of sales. At this point, Friday is gonna be massive if it keeps up these already extremely high bumps. $10M previews should be a lock. Guessing somewhere in the high 30s for the combined days, but that estimate should easily keep going up.

Inside Out 2 (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 294/4,033 (7.3% sold) [+92]

4 IMAX showings: 41/1,552

3 XD Showings: 6/714

2 3D showings: 16/220

16 2D showings: 231/1,547

 

Comps:

IF: $9.35 mil

Garfield: $14.15 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $14.55 mil

Minions 2: $12.49 mil

Lightyear: $15.76 mil

Sonic 2: $10.04 mil

Average: $12.71 mil

 

 

Friday: 786/6,020 (13.1% sold) [+274]

5 IMAX showings: 94/1,940

4 XD showings: 39/952

4 3D showings: 29/390

27 2D showings: 624/2,738

 

Comps:

IF: $58.27 mil

Garfield: $101.88 mil

Apes: $72.4 mil

Minions 2: $78.78 mil

Lightyear: $79.68 mil

Sonic 2: $35.08 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 1,080/10,053 (10.7% sold) [+366]

 

IF: $65.45 mil

Garfield: $100.87 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $82.27 mil

Minions 2: $83.08 mil

Lightyear: $90.54 mil

Sonic 2: $44.94 mil

 

 

I wasn't sure if I would do it, but I went back through my old Wednesday-only comps for my theater from 21-22 to see if there was anything I could use for this film because, honestly, the current comps aren't cutting it. The only one I came across that seemed to remotely mirror IO2's numbers was, lo and behold, Sonic 2. It's not a complete one-to-one, given that it had no IMAX showings and the theater didn't have an XD auditorium until Fall 2022, but going off numbers alone, the two line up pretty closely. The Friday-to-Thursday ticket sale ratios are not too far off from each other (2.67 for IO2 vs. Sonic 2's 2.46), though obviously, IO2's higher previews will balance out with a lower True Friday bump-up. The Thursday + Friday comp makes me feel pretty confident about a mid-40s OD.

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-2 Days

 

Previews - 5388/65468 (259 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $20.4M

 

Haunted Mansion - $14.7M

Wonka - $17.4M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $13.4M

Minions 2 - $14.9M (inf. adj $15.5M+)

Lightyear - $8.3M (inf. adj $9M)

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Previews - 8656/68021 (274 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $21.4M

 

Haunted Mansion - $15.9M

Wonka - $19.3M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $15.3M

Minions 2 - $13.7M (inf. adj $15M+)

Lightyear - $8.8M (inf. adj $9.5M+)

 

WOW. KFP4 increased again. Most of the comps other than the last 2 will end up with $15M+ ish tomorrow.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-44 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28715	33627	4912	14.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

67

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	23.26%		8.37m
L&T		16962	28.96%		8.40m
BP2		16800	29.24%		8.19m
AM3		10475	46.89%		8.21m
GOTG3		10750	45.69%		8.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1086/12927  [8.40% sold]
Matinee:    278/4470  [6.22% | 5.66% of all tickets sold]
3D:            4 70/6801  [6.91% | 9.57% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2613/11535  [22.65% | 53.20% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        60 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    61 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-43 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28680	33627	4947	14.71%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

35

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	23.43%		8.43m
L&T		16962	29.17%		8.46m
BP2		16800	29.45%		8.25m
AM3		10475	47.23%		8.26m
GOTG3		10750	46.02%		8.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1093/12927  [8.46% sold]
Matinee:    278/4470  [6.22% | 5.62% of all tickets sold]
3D:             473/6801  [6.95% | 9.56% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       2630/11535  [22.80% | 53.16% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        30 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    34 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	239	28314	31492	3178	10.09%

 

Total Showings Added Today	49
Total Seats Added Today	4071
Total Seats Sold Today	667

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	151.62		466	2096		0/119	13278/15374	13.63%		3951	80.44%		9.48m
Lightyear	156.09		440	2036		1/186	19987/22023	9.24%		4091	77.68%		8.12m
Minion 2	116.24		829	2734		0/214	27446/30180	9.06%		6591	48.22%		12.50m
Element	472.21		141	673		—/—	10107/10780	6.24%		1910	166.39%		11.33m
Barbie	41.73		1043	7616		0/244	19827/27443	27.75%		12077	26.31%		9.43m
Wonka	310.65		159	1023		0/208	25561/26584	3.85%		1975	160.91%		10.87m
GBFE	264.17		223	1203		0/201	27252/28455	4.23%		2197	144.65%		12.42m
KFP4	353.50		164	899		0/166	17064/17963	5.00%		2346	135.46%		13.43m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       762/11180  [6.82% sold]
Matinee:    374/3183  [11.75% | 11.77% of all tickets sold]
3D:             196/4124  [4.75% | 6.17% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       1209/10535  [11.48% | 38.04% of all tickets sold]

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	28160	32945	4785	14.52%

 

Total Showings Added Today	18
Total Seats Added Today	1453
Total Seats Sold Today	1607

 

T-1 Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	165.97		787	2883		0/125	12991/15874	18.16%		3951	121.11%		10.37m
Lightyear	176.50		675	2711		1/196	20030/22741	11.92%		4091	116.96%		9.18m
Minion 2	119.03		1286	4020		0/214	26160/30180	13.32%		6591	72.60%		12.80m
Element	487.77		308	981		—/—	9799/10780	9.10%		1910	250.52%		11.71m
Barbie	50.62		1837	9453		3/268	20134/29587	31.95%		12077	39.62%		11.44m
Wonka	377.96		243	1266		0/211	25506/26772	4.73%		1975	242.28%		13.23m
GBFE	316.26		310	1513		0/208	27725/29238	5.17%		2197	217.80%		14.86m
KFP4	380.06		360	1259		0/187	19460/20719	6.08%		2346	203.96%		14.44m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1081/11274  [9.59% sold]
Matinee:    543/3344  [16.24% | 11.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:             301/4240  [7.10% | 6.29% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        1697/10730  [15.82% | 35.46% of all tickets sold]

 

=====

 

DenzelSays***BOOM*** DOT GIF goes [HERE]

 

Yeah.  Fantastic day today, I'd say.  A lot of the higher comps will crash tomorrow, but, really, right now it's just a question of ATP/how many kids tickets get sold.  And that's a question that I really have no clue as to what the answer is gonna be.

 

Tomorrow should be fun, regardless. 👍

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Inside Out 2, T-2 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 225

New Sales: 27

Growth: 14%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 25

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.4

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 46/6

Early Evening: 116/10

Late Evening: 63/9

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 27/1

Dolby 3D: 103/6

IMAX: 45/6

VIP: 41/4

Regular: 8/1

Regular 3D: 0/5

4DX 3D:2/2

 

 Comps

0.678x KFP4 for $2.6M

11.842x IF for $20.7M

12.500x Garfield for $23.8M

2.273x GB:FE for $10.7M

1.891x Wonka for $6.6M

Average: $12.5M

 

Rate of growth declined surprisingly, but it actually didn't drop much against comps.

 

My theory is that Tuesday evenings ere when the full weekend showtimes go up. And in the case of family films, it's usually opening up more lower cost regular showings.

 

For Thursday, there's only one regular showing, and it's a matinee. Pretty much everyone seeing it on Thursday is having to pay a premium. But as the weekend shows go up, there's a lot of regular priced screenings available, so some of the demand is being pushed there now that those options are available. At least that's my theory. When I have time, I might go back and check growth patterns across films in the final week to see if the Wednesday update does see a bit of a retreat.

 

Inside Out 2, T-1 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 366

New Sales: 141

Growth: 63%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 25

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.4

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 80/6

Early Evening: 192/10

Late Evening: 94/9

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 37/1

Dolby 3D: 165/6

IMAX: 54/6

VIP: 72/4

Regular: 17/1

Regular 3D: 14/5

4DX 3D: 7/2

 

 Comps

0.869x KFP4 for $3.3M

8.714x IF for $15.3M

12.200x Garfield for $23.2M

2.473x GB:FE for $11.6M

2.091x Wonka for $7.3M

Average: $12.1M

 

Good final day. Shows good hope for walk ups.

 

The IF/Garfield combo are still distorting and should probably be thrown out.

 

Factoring in that KFP4 overindexed in Canada, and was closer to $7M, that's probably a good gauge on what it's doing around here. With schools still in session, it's probably doing a little worse than the US for previews.

[TwoMisfits]

10 hours ago, Potiki said:

 

https://www.activaterewards.com/disneyplusperks
 

Don’t know if this  promotion has been mentioned by someone already but could add to sales. 

 

Yeah, that came out yesterday with reviews...Disney really doesn't want to follow the last 2 day drop off pattern a lot of movies have had this year...

 

It's a rare thing to see a Disney discount for any movie...

[el sid]

16 hours ago, discussingnotfilms said:

Is The Bikeriders looking that bad???

Not great so far, at least in my theaters. But it has too few shows to already say anything concrete. That's why I didn't report - things still could change quickly. But because it was mentioned now...

 

That's how it looked for Bikeriders, counted yesterday for Thursday, June 20. 8 days left.

It had meager 80 sold tickets in four of my seven AMCs (nothing so far in the bigger theaters in NY and San Francisco which skews the picture). It does ok in LA (67 sold tickets), but pretty bad in Miami (only 8 sold tickets), Arizona (3 sold tickets) and Grand Rapids (2 sold tickets). 

 

Loose comps: Civil War (2.6M from previews) had on Monday of the release week for Thursday 826 sold tickets in 7 theaters. 

And The Fall Guy (2.35M) had also on Monday of the release week for Thursday 669 sold tickets and with 6 days left 534 sold tickets.

Ambulance (700k from previews/2.5M true Friday) had on Monday for Friday 196 sold tickets in 7 theaters. 

 

As I said, things could change but so far its presales are muted. 

[Grand Cine]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 97059/767811 1697677.62 4264 shows +27334

Friday - 147848/1402980 2452822.83 7982 shows +38369

 

I flipped the order of runs and so friday is 22ish hours of data while previews is 26hrs of data. Still very impressive growth for T-1 and guarantees double digit previews. In fact I expect it to cross 11m in previews. ~125m OW is what I am seeing for now. Let us see how walkups go tomorrow to further hone it. Friday will be a monster day for sure. 

Comparaison with TLM :

 

Previews(T-1) - 106436/957084 1800864.76 5892 shows +17872

Friday - 147390/1227870 2375139.50 7112 shows +26330

 

I think more 10M previews but 11M is possible. Clearly Friday will be really great , if its plays like TLM i think he could make like 35M for True Friday . With 20% up for Sat and 10-15% drop for Sun. I think 120-125M OW.

 

PS : the last day was also almost the same as Minions 2.

Minions MTC1 Friday - 116800/1276229 1759212.34 6974 shows +40092

 

 

Edited June 13 by Grand Cine

[TomThomas]

Any Horizon update?

[VanillaSkies]

59 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Comparaison with TLM :

 

Previews(T-1) - 106436/957084 1800864.76 5892 shows +17872

Friday - 147390/1227870 2375139.50 7112 shows +26330

 

I think more 10M previews but 11M is possible. Clearly Friday will be really great , if its plays like TLM i think he could make like 35M for True Friday . With 20% up for Sat and 10-15% drop for Sun. I think 120-125M OW.

 

PS : the last day was also almost the same as Minions 2.

Minions MTC1 Friday - 116800/1276229 1759212.34 6974 shows +40092

 

 

With Father’s Day being on Sunday and those Fan Event showings on Sunday, it’s likely there will be single digit to no % drop on Sunday.

[Grand Cine]

20 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

With Father’s Day being on Sunday and those Fan Event showings on Sunday, it’s likely there will be single digit to no % drop on Sunday.

@keysersoze123said that Fan Event will be around 600K so not a lot of difference . For Sunday on global, maybe a single % drop. I just take the comparaison with recent pixar movies .

 

Dory : -24%

Cars 3 : -15%

Incredibles 2 : -11%

Toy Story 4 : -14%

Elemental : -18%

[titanic2187]

52 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

With Father’s Day being on Sunday and those Fan Event showings on Sunday, it’s likely there will be single digit to no % drop on Sunday.

None of the Pixar movie opened during Father Day drop that little. Typically father day benefit male-skewing movie more, and that is why you can see Dory and Elemental drop are the worst among all other male-centric Pixar movie. I expect IO2 with 3 female leads in the center (sadness, joy and anxiety) to be more female skewing. 

 

28 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Dory : -24%

Cars 3 : -15%

Incredibles 2 : -11%

Toy Story 4 : -14%

Elemental : -18%

 

[jeffthehat]

2 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

Comparaison with TLM :

 

Previews(T-1) - 106436/957084 1800864.76 5892 shows +17872

Friday - 147390/1227870 2375139.50 7112 shows +26330

 

I think more 10M previews but 11M is possible. Clearly Friday will be really great , if its plays like TLM i think he could make like 35M for True Friday . With 20% up for Sat and 10-15% drop for Sun. I think 120-125M OW.

 

PS : the last day was also almost the same as Minions 2.

Minions MTC1 Friday - 116800/1276229 1759212.34 6974 shows +40092

 

 

Thinking TLM might be an outlier here. If and KFP4 are comping ~$48.5m true Fri at MTC1, similar to Minions 2. Recent action stuff like Fall Guy ($49.5m) and Bad Boys 4 ($43.4m) looks good as well. We'll see

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Previews - 8656/68021 (274 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $21.4M

 

Haunted Mansion - $15.9M

Wonka - $19.3M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $15.3M

Minions 2 - $13.7M (inf. adj $15M+)

Lightyear - $8.8M (inf. adj $9.5M+)

 

WOW. KFP4 increased again. Most of the comps other than the last 2 will end up with $15M+ ish tomorrow.

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Friday - 15195/167519 (712 showings) $185K+

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $69M

 

Minions 2 - $50.3M (Gross comp $58M)

 

Super Mario (FRI only) - $32.5M

Super Mario (THU + FRI) - $44M

 

Super Mario did over-index in MiniTC2, though IO2 will probably do even more, so that's decent comp.

Edited June 13 by charlie Jatinder

[Flip]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

None of the Pixar movie opened during Father Day drop that little. Typically father day benefit male-skewing movie more, and that is why you can see Dory and Elemental drop are the worst among all other male-centric Pixar movie. I expect IO2 with 3 female leads in the center (sadness, joy and anxiety) to be more female skewing. 

 

 

To be fair I have seen a decent amount of ads this week trying to get dads to go on Father’s Day 

[TheFlatLannister]

3 hours ago, TomThomas said:

Any Horizon update?

FLORIDA 

 

Horizon

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
297	171	37595	0.45%

^{*numbers taken as of 11:00AM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-14

(0.104x) of Furosia $363k

(0.148x) of Civil War $429k

(0.144x) of Fall Guy $332k

Comps average: $375k

 

Terrible start, not shocking. Looks like even exhibitors don't believe in it as this is easily the lowest allocation in showings i've seen since tracking Florida. 

Edited June 13 by TheFlatLannister

[AniNate]

No major studio's ever gonna go to Cannes again, lol