The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/6/2024 at 1:59 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-50 Days (17 Days on sale)

 

Previews - 8278/84598 (320 showings) $123K

 

Comps

1.55x GoTG 3 (T-17 Days) - $27M

1.10x Black Panther 2 (T-21 Days) - $31.4M

0.89x Thor 4 (T-17 Days) - $25.8M

 

GoTG3 comp will froze now.

 

Moving along nicely. Completed 8K+ by T-50 day target rather easily, was helped by that popcorn bucket promo in between. Next challenge is to hit 9K by T-40 days.

 

$35-40M is what I expect.

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-40 Days (27 Days on sale)

 

Previews - 9220/84949 (322 showings) $135K

 

Comps

GoTG 3 (T-17 Days) - $30M

Black Panther 2 (T-17 Days) - $31.8M

Thor 4 (T-17 Days) - $29M

 

Spider Verse 2 (T-17 Days) - $60M

 

Target achieved. Next will be T-30, 10.2K be great.

Edited June 16 by charlie Jatinder

[TomThomas]

I know nobody cares, but does Horizon have some pulse or not?

[AniNate]

Five Thursdays and four Fridays sold for it at Canton. 

[vafrow]

On 6/9/2024 at 8:04 AM, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, D3, T-25 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 9

New Sales: 2

Growth: 29%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.2

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 0/8

Early Afternoon: 0/8

Late Afternoon: 9/8

Early Evening: 0/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 0/7

Regular 3D: 0/5

Dolby: 9/14

Dolby 3D: 0/2

IMAX: 0/10

 

Comps (T minus)

0.692x Inside Out 2 for ???

0.600x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $2.9M

9.000x Wonka for $31.5M

 

I set up the sheets. Being opening day, there's a lot of showtimes, so this is going to be a bit of a pain to track for a film that will only see action in that final week. Hard to make too much sense of the comps. With Jat indicating to what extent Kung Fu Panda overindexed in Canada, lagging on that isn't that much of a negative though.

 

Despicable Me 4, T-18 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 38

New Sales since T-25: 29

Growth: 322%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.0

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 3/8

Early Afternoon: 5/8

Late Afternoon: 13/8

Early Evening: 17/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 0/7

Regular 3D: 0/5

Dolby: 25/14

Dolby 3D: 4/2

IMAX: 9/10

 

Comps (T minus)

1.652x Inside Out 2 for $21.5

1.520x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $7.3M

1.310x GB:FE for $4.8M

4.222x Wonka for $14.8M

12.667x Garfield for $24.1M

 

Average: $14.5M

 

I probably should have updated earlier. I've been tracking through the week though and it's been steadily adding sales. Having the IO2 opening also helps, however, for this market, it's comparing a school day versus summer holiday (and a premiere versus previews).

 

Still, it's doing well, especially for a walk up based franchise.

[AniNate]

TWISTERS

 

NORTH CANTON

Wednesday EA - 13
Thursday - 22
Friday - 20

 

VALLEY VIEW (CLEVELAND)

Wednesday EA - 13
Thursday - 12
Friday - 7

 

Interesting to compare these to Bad Boys presales at the outset where Valley View had the lions' share. Another illustration of the customer demographic contrast. 

 

 

Edited June 16 by AniNate

[vafrow]

On 6/9/2024 at 8:27 AM, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, D3, T-40 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales: 2

Growth: 100%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.2

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 8

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/5

Early Evening: 1/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 3/8

IMAX: 1/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

2.000x Fall Guy for $6.3M

0.286x KOTPOTA for $1.4M

0.235x BB:RoD for $1.4M

 

I managed to get the sheets set up. Screen counts are really low, but, at this far out, theatres are probably going to wait and see. I do expect that by the time full sets are released, this will be tracking well enough to justify more.

 

Comps are limited due to being so far out. I'm using D3 comps, but, BB:RoD was opened around T-21, so it's a rough comparison. KOTPOTA is a little closer, and Fall Guy opened well in advance. I think once we're under 3 weeks, then we'll get a much better idea on where we sit.

 

Twisters, T-33 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 5

New Sales since T-40: 1

Growth: 25%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.3

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 11

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/5

Early Evening: 2/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 3/8

IMAX: 1/6

4DX: 1/3

 

Comps

1.250x Fall Guy for $3.9M

 

It's still really early, but this really feels like Fall Guy to me. Early start, but low sales, with a bit of extra activity with the EA show the day before. I'm hoping that there's regional biases at play here, and that a ethnically diverse Toronto suburb catchment area doesn't capture the middle America interest that this is going for.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/6/2024 at 2:34 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-28 Days

Wednesday - 77/103555 (405 showings)

Almost nothing sale but this will more about final week sales film.

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-18 Days

 

Wednesday - 506/104887 (408 showings)

 

Comps

Inside Out 2 (THU+FRI) - $23M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (THU+FRI) - $39M

[AniNate]

Looks like no showtimes or presale start date yet but with Inside Out breaking out I am curious how that Lion King rerelease is gonna do. Seems like there is an interest in the big screen Disney experience again.

[charlie Jatinder]

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2

Saturday - 92379/183055 (857 showings) $1.08M

This is with 2 cinemas missing which probably did 4K. There are also blocked seats which are ignored by my tracking, that would be easy 5K+, so 101K sales on 31 locs.

 

In comparison, MTC1 will be ~800K on 550 locs.

 

2 cinemas had 5K+ sales.
5 cinemas had 4K+ sales
9 cinemas had 3K+ sales.

 

Actual 5K may be 4.

 

This is the biggest day I have tracked in last 3 years.

Edited June 16 by charlie Jatinder

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

The Fathom Lord of the Rings is selling really well everywhere around me. Should have done a proper rerelease.

[TheFlatLannister]

When I last checked Twisters it wasn’t doing much business. Was thinking this could be a regional thing, but other trackers are kind of confirming my suspicion

[TheFlatLannister]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-40 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28526	33625	5099	15.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

60

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	24.15%		8.69m
L&T		16962	30.06%		8.72m
BP2		16800	30.35%		8.50m
AM3		10475	48.68%		8.52m
GOTG3		10750	47.43%		8.30m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1120/12925  [8.67% sold]
Matinee:    289/4469  [6.47% | 5.67% of all tickets sold]
3D:             498/6801  [7.32% | 9.77% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2683/11535  [23.26% | 52.62% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        53 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    56 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

60 tickets sold 40 days out from release is ridiculously good right? 
 

this is going to have a HUGE final week

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana Lite

Inside Out 2 Sat T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
6508	35955	206

TC = 10

Comps 

0.97x Inside Out 2 Fri T-0 = $48.7m

3.81x IF Sat T-0 = $53.7m

2.94x Bad Boys 4 Sat T-0 = $57.2m

3.03x Kingdom Apes Sat T-0 = $60.5m

 

AVG = $54.97m

 

Guess I should've taken the comps seriously yesterday  Had suspicions it would be ~$50m but chickened out on saying it directly 

 

 

 

Would guess flat-ish today. Weird that showcount is lower than yesterday but don't think there was an error in counting 

Indiana Lite

Inside Out 2 Sun T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
5552	34322	198

TC = 10

Comps 

0.83x Inside Out 2 Fri T-0 = $41.5m

0.85x Inside Out 2 Sat T-0 = $42.7m

5.23x IF Sun T-0 = $48.7m

3.32x Kingdom Apes Sun T-0 = $54.1m

 

AVG = $46.75m

 

Looks like somewhere between 10-20% drop today. 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/15/2024 at 8:21 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Saturday - 268565/1509494 4095585.19 8898 shows

 

I let it run overnight. Can it do 750K or even 800K.

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Sunday - 197139/1393149 2922044. 8237 shows

 

Presales are down a lot but walkups should make up somewhat. Especially with Fathers day driving sales. 

[todos]

155M DOM 

MiniTC2 strikes gold!

[emoviefan]

50 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

When I last checked Twisters it wasn’t doing much business. Was thinking this could be a regional thing, but other trackers are kind of confirming my suspicion

That sucks. Still feel it will do better than The Fall Guy or Furiosa at least. The metrics are already much better on the Qurom  than either one of those were. Still trusting in this being a walkup movie even it's been pointed that the target audience  has not been the walkup audience.  Of course the movie may not even end up being good and that will kill it.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

That sucks. Still feel it will do better than The Fall Guy or Furiosa at least. The metrics are already much better on the Qurom  than either one of those were. Still trusting in this being a walkup movie even it's been pointed that the target audience  has not been the walkup audience.  Of course the movie may not even end up being good and that will kill it.

Hard to believe Twisters opens to sub-$30M like those did. The concept has more appeal even on paper, even if high $50M opening is probably its ceiling.

[Flip]

On 6/9/2024 at 11:00 PM, Flip said:

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-24) (D5)

 

22 showtimes/58 tix sold (+2)

 

Twisters (T-39) (D4)

 

14 showtimes/37 tix sold (+2)

Despicable Me 4 (T-17) full week of sales

 

22 showtimes/84 tix sold (+26) 

 

Twisters (T-32) also full week

 

14 showtimes/44 tix sold (+7)

[Flip]

On 6/10/2024 at 11:12 PM, Flip said:

A Quiet Place (T-17)

 

12 showtimes/143 tix sold (+6)

steady growth 

A Quiet Place (T-11)

 

12 showtimes/174 tix sold (+31)

.95x Inside Out 2 (T-11) [12.35m*]
 Bad boys comp will start tomorrow. 

* take this with a grain of salt, due to both genre differences and AQP over indexing since I’m tracking NYC where the movie takes place.

[AniNate]

A Quiet Place as a breakout would be fun, would love to see Lupita's stock continue to rise.