The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Brainbug]

Blue Beetle seems like a true bomb waiting to happen.

[CJohn]

JESUS CHRIST SOMEONE SAVE MY LITTLE SHARK

[Duher]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Strays	T-16	Jax	6	15	1	9	1,897	0.47%
		Phx	5	20	2	14	2,081	0.67%
		Ral	6	18	0	16	2,703	0.59%
	Total		17	53	3	39	6,681	0.58%
Strays (EA)	T-15	Jax	2	2	0	3	225	1.33%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	279	0.00%
		Ral	3	3	0	0	418	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	3	922	0.33%

 

Strays (Total) T-16 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.5x (1.75m)

 - D&D (Total) - .261x (1.46m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.2x (1.32m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - 1.75x (1.31m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .385x (771k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.29m

 

Hey guys, I'm kinda new to this box office prediction world and I'm having a hard time trying to understand all this terminology and abbreviations here (I'm not American btw, maybe it's something you guys are used to). Can someone give me some advices on how to interpret this kind of table? 

[Brainbug]

Just now, CJohn said:

JESUS CHRIST SOMEONE SAVE MY LITTLE SHARK

 

 

Booked my tickets for Friday.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

I want tracking. I want tracking of Blue Beetle by the morning, on my desk.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

I want tracking. I want tracking of Blue Beetle by the morning, on my desk.

Just eyeballing my theater, I’m not sure that you want the numbers.

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, Duher said:

 

Hey guys, I'm kinda new to this box office prediction world and I'm having a hard time trying to understand all this terminology and abbreviations here (I'm not American btw, maybe it's something you guys are used to). Can someone give me some advices on how to interpret this kind of table? 

 

So this is a table of tickets sold at a variety of theaters in the Jacksonville, Phoenix and Raleigh areas. Strays has early access (EA) shows in 7 of those theaters and has sold a combined three tickets out of a possible 922 seats.  Strays previews have sold 39 tickets (3 since yesterday) out of a possible 6,681 seats.  Below the chart are comparisons of how Strays 42 total tickets sold as of 16 days before previews relates to other movies sampled at the same time.  Easter Sunday had sold 12 tickets total at 16 days before previews.  Strays is at 3.5x that amount.  Easter Sunday made 500k in previews.  3.5 x 500k = $1.75m (this assumes Strays follows the same pattern as Easter Sunday and finishes with 3.5x the amount of tickets sold).  

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Strays	T-16	Jax	6	15	1	9	1,897	0.47%
		Phx	5	20	2	14	2,081	0.67%
		Ral	6	18	0	16	2,703	0.59%
	Total		17	53	3	39	6,681	0.58%
Strays (EA)	T-15	Jax	2	2	0	3	225	1.33%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	279	0.00%
		Ral	3	3	0	0	418	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	3	922	0.33%

 

Strays (Total) T-16 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.5x (1.75m)

 - D&D (Total) - .261x (1.46m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.2x (1.32m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - 1.75x (1.31m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .385x (771k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.29m

[The Wild Eric]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

JESUS CHRIST SOMEONE SAVE MY LITTLE SHARK

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Meg 2	T-2	Jax	5	39	32	136	5,807	2.34%
		Phx	6	35	27	85	5,110	1.66%
		Ral	8	24	17	78	2,749	2.84%
	Total		19	98	76	299	13,666	2.19%
Turtles	T-0	Jax	5	61	156	367	7,618	4.82%
		Phx	6	61	105	329	8,532	3.86%
		Ral	8	52	141	441	7,289	6.05%
	Total		19	174	402	1,137	23,439	4.85%

 

Turtles (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Barbie (Thu) - .12x (2.53m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .649x (3.23m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - 1.136x (3.29m)

 - Indiana Jones - .473x (3.4m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .389x (2.34m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .634x (2.63m)

 - Dune - .514x (2.62m)

 - Transformers (Thu) - .499x (3.64m)

 - M:I 7 (Tue) - .502x (3.21m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.23m

Growth rate model forecast - 3.12m

 

Turtles pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Turtles	111.73%	34.45%	25.57%	54.69%
Barbie	73.13%	31.55%	36.95%	21.24%
Sonic 2	98.08%	31.75%	21.52%	25.21%
Haunted Mansion	101.41%	33.00%	22.22%	33.82%
Indiana Jones	76.13%	27.01%	14.74%	25.90%
Fantastic Beasts 3	55.62%	30.37%	30.83%	17.83%
Ghostbusters	95.85%			27.91%
Dune	87.62%			25.47%
Transformers 6	115.50%	29.21%		43.40%
M:I 7	103.41%	34.50%	23.32%	48.85%

 

This is what I've been waiting for.  Better T-0 update than any of the comps.  Last three days ahead of M:I 7 and Haunted Mansion, but slightly behind Transformers.  Should see a really good increase in the T-1 hour update.  Still hoping we can pull all of the comps into the 3s and a couple over 4m.  For now, I'll project 3.5m for true previews.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	1-Hr	Jax	5	63	182	549	7,848	7.00%
		Phx	6	61	72	401	8,532	4.70%
		Ral	8	52	176	617	7,289	8.46%
	Total		19	176	430	1,567	23,669	6.62%

 

Turtles (Thu) T-1 hr comps

 - Barbie (Thu) - .137x (2.91m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - missed

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - 1.12x (3.24m)

 - Indiana Jones - missed

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .455x (2.73m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .657x (2.73m)

 - Dune - .57x (2.91m)

 - Transformers (Thu) - .442x (3.22m)

 - M:I 7 (Tue) - .496x (3.18m)

All PG-13 movies - 3.2m

All adventure movies - 3.2m

All 3pm movies - 3.28m

All movies - 3.37m

 

Size adjusted average - 3.04m

Growth rate model forecast - 3.29m

 

Turtles pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Turtles	166.50%	34.35%	23.83%	37.82%
Barbie	71.90%	37.12%	35.07%	19.93%
Haunted Mansion	126.13%	38.71%	28.42%	40.06%
Fantastic Beasts 3	60.53%			17.94%
Ghostbusters	118.52%			33.04%
Dune	82.48%			24.32%
Transformers 6	185.67%			55.61%
M:I 7	150.75%	34.95%	27.59%	39.44%

 

Not quite the final day I was hoping for.  Definitely wasn't expecting today's pace to be below Haunted Mansion final day growth.  Seems like most signs are pointing to around 3.2m for true previews, so I'll plant my flag there.  While I think the discount Tuesday will bring the ATP down, I am hedging on better walkups than some of the other comps.  I don't have a good estimate on EA, but from what I saw I wouldn't be surprised if they combined for $2m+ with how many shows there were and how well they were selling.

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

I want tracking. I want tracking of Blue Beetle by the morning, on my desk.

 

It's honestly just sad at this point

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/31/2023 at 6:52 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

THE MEG 2: THE TRENCH

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
160	369	27814	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

76

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.188x) of Mi7

~$1.32M THUR Previews

 

(0.167x) of Fast X

~$1.25M THUR Previews

 

(0.155x) of RoTB

~$1.37M THUR Previews

 

Comp AVG: $1.31M

 

Still on the uptick against comps. Probably looking at ~$2m previews. 

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

THE MEG 2: THE TRENCH

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	517	30751	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

148

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.245x) of Mi7

~$1.72M THUR Previews

 

(0.207x) of Fast X

~$1.55M THUR Previews

 

(0.182x) of RoTB

~$1.60M THUR Previews

 

Comp AVG: $1.62M

 

Disney springs is finally up. Heading to $2m previews. Probably $20m+ OW

 

Unofficial comp courtesy of @CJohn

0.903x of insidious 5 ($4.52M)

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	433	26422	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.211x) of The Flash

~$2.04M THUR Previews 

 

(0.232x) of Indy 5

~$1.67M THUR Previews

 

(0.308x) of Fast X

~$2.31M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $2.00M previews 

 

If I had to guess right now I would say O/U $20M OW. DOA as many expected. 

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
138	207	24786	0.83%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.159x) of Oppenheimer 

~$1.67M THUR Previews 

 

Having trouble finding good comps for this. 

[VanillaSkies]

Someone had mentioned a few weeks ago a ticket bundle for TMNT, something like 4 tickets for $20. Dow e think this will drastically affect the opening week?

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Would No Hard Feelings and Joy Ride work as comps for Strays?

[Grebacio]

12 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

 

Having trouble finding good comps for this. 

I'd suggest Cocaine Bear and No hard feelings

[CJohn]

19 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
138	207	24786	0.83%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.159x) of Oppenheimer 

~$1.67M THUR Previews 

 

Having trouble finding good comps for this. 

Cocaine Bear and Violent Night?

[keysersoze123]

28 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	433	26422	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.211x) of The Flash

~$2.04M THUR Previews 

 

(0.232x) of Indy 5

~$1.67M THUR Previews

 

(0.308x) of Fast X

~$2.31M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $2.00M previews 

 

If I had to guess right now I would say O/U $20M OW. DOA as many expected. 

Neither Flash nor Indy nor Fast X are good comps. If you have comp with Shazam 2 or even Meg 2 recently. Its not going to have an explosive start for sure. 

[Flip]

30 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	433	26422	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.211x) of The Flash

~$2.04M THUR Previews 

 

(0.232x) of Indy 5

~$1.67M THUR Previews

 

(0.308x) of Fast X

~$2.31M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $2.00M previews 

 

If I had to guess right now I would say O/U $20M OW. DOA as many expected. 

Not as bad as I would’ve expected 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Cocaine Bear and Violent Night?

Did not track either of those

 

5 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

I'd suggest Cocaine Bear and No hard feelings

started tracking NHF from T-9 

 

7 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Would No Hard Feelings and Joy Ride work as comps for Strays?

I did not track Joy Ride, but yes both would work.