The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

On 7/31/2023 at 1:44 PM, keysersoze123 said:

TMNT MTC1

Early Shows(7/31) - 21040/31128 437046.60 167 shows

Previews(8/1) - 32578/529533 527313.08 3356 shows

Wednesday - 18899/669538 290417.91 4175 shows

 

This is as of this morning. Since its opening so early in the week, opening day Wednesday will be weak. 

 

Early Shows(7/31) - 22794/31126 469960.56 167 shows

Previews - 75203/535050 1148280.25 3418 shows

 

As I posted earlier early shows are pointing to about 2.2m in gross. Previews looks like finishing around half of MI7. I am thinking ~6m overall previews. 

[Porthos]

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Sacto Report [T-1]

2742/16080 (17.057% sold) [+763 tickets] [+231 EA | +532 Tue]

 

0.59622x MI7 at T-1                      [5.25m]

0.47416x MI7 TUE ONLY at T-1    [3.32m]

 

***NO ADJUSTMENT FOR DISCOUNT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COMPS***:

1.31827x  GBA at T-1            [5.93m]

0.95109x Sonic 2 at T-1       [5.94m]

2.56501x Shazam 2 at T-1   [8.72m]

0.79895x RotB at T-1           [7.03m]

 

====

 

Comps more or less kept pace with previous comps, +/- a skosh here and there, with the exception of the MI7 Tue ONLY comp going up a bit (as well as the still-lol Shazam 2 comp going up as well).

 

Guess it'll just depend on how Paramount feels like reporting the numbers.  Still, was able to keep pace with MI7's Monday total which is no small feat, at least in context.

 

As usual, no mid-day report so the next and final one will be sometime after 4:15pm PDT.

 

Quick and Dirty Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Sacto Report [T-0] [FINAL]

4231/16080 (26.31% sold) [+1489 tickets]

 

0.64576x MI7 at T-0                       [5.68m]

0.58564x MI7 TUE ONLY at T-0    [4.10m]

 

***NO ADJUSTMENT FOR DISCOUNT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COMPS***:

1.39453x  GBA at T-0                      [6.28m]

1.07087x Sonic 2 at T-0                  [6.69m]

2.54420x Shazam 2 at T-0             [8.65m]

0.85079x RotB at T-0                      [7.49m]

1.83877x Haunted Mansion at T-0 [5.70m]

 

====

 

Discount Tuesday (at some chains at least) + GA friendly family movie = lots of walkups.  Who knew!!!

 

All comps went up, except for the Shazam 2 comp.  Also threw in Haunted Mansion at the last second since that over-performed locally, just as a bound on GA-friendly films.

 

Speaking of which, this should sell more kids tickets than MI7, so can't do a pure comp off of that, so let's go with:

 

If Paramount reports all previews      5.25m +/- .35m

If Paramount reports Tuesday Only:  3.75m +/- .25m

 

Am I trying to get two bites at the apple here?  Blame Paramount, not me. 😉

[ZeeSoh]

29 minutes ago, Flip said:

Not as bad as I would’ve expected 

That 1 single tracking right now is pointing to below 20m OW which would be one of the lowest for a modern SH movie and for DCEU (except WW84 but that was during Covid). How low was your expectation that that is not as bad lol

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

That 1 single tracking right now is pointing to below 20m OW which would be one of the lowest for a modern SH movie and for DCEU (except WW84 but that was during Covid). How low was your expectation that that is not as bad lol

 

Hey atleast its not pointing to a 10M OW.

 

Thats positive right?

 

I mean ... it could be worse right?

Edited August 1, 2023 by Brainbug

[TheFlatLannister]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Neither Flash nor Indy nor Fast X are good comps. If you have comp with Shazam 2 or even Meg 2 recently. Its not going to have an explosive start for sure. 

When I tracked shazam it was only with a few chains. Meg 2 PS started at T-9 so i'll have to wait a few days to add that comp

[keysersoze123]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

When I tracked shazam it was only with a few chains. Meg 2 PS started at T-9 so i'll have to wait a few days to add that comp

T- does not matter on opening day. Just do opening day sales comps. 

[vafrow]

16 hours ago, vafrow said:

TMNT Mutant Mayhem, T-1, Milton, ON

 

Sales are at 30 tickets sold across 4 showtimes today.

 

It's very hard to get a read on this with the Tuesday start, and being peak of summer.

 

Elemental was only at 3 tickets sold on T-1. ATSV was 255. So, hard to make sense of it against animated films.

 

For Tuesday start, MI7 did crazy business with 271.

 

Evening update.

 

I didn't think to use it as a comp before, but sales are at 111 right now with close of early show, same as Transformers Rise of the Beasts. They started the day almost identically as well.

 

Tuesday discounts are also helping I'm sure, but just a strong walk up performance in general.

 

I'll update if there's any significant movement with the late show, but given the target audience, I'm not expecting much.

[CJohn]

I am honestly surprised by Blue Beetle's numbers. I was expecting sub-15M OW.

[Phoenix22]

Watch this one have better legs than Shazam (less competition and better film) and also finding a market in Latinamerica and Asia, not being hopeful but I could see it hitting $140M - $170M, with $200M as the ceiling. 

[TMP]

31 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am honestly surprised by Blue Beetle's numbers. I was expecting sub-15M OW.

if it out-opens meg 2 it’ll be the biggest surprise of the year

[vinny2487]

58 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

That 1 single tracking right now is pointing to below 20m OW which would be one of the lowest for a modern SH movie and for DCEU (except WW84 but that was during Covid). How low was your expectation that that is not as bad lol

 

To be fair it's above tracking estimates 

[El Gato]

4 hours ago, CJohn said:

JESUS CHRIST SOMEONE SAVE MY LITTLE SHARK

Forget the shark! Someone save the Beetle 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Early Shows(7/31) - 22794/31126 469960.56 167 shows

Previews - 75203/535050 1148280.25 3418 shows

 

As I posted earlier early shows are pointing to about 2.2m in gross. Previews looks like finishing around half of MI7. I am thinking ~6m overall previews. 

Will you be giving final update today? If possible WED too.

 

A bit much perhaps, Meg THU be great.

[Unfitclock]

@across the Jat verse are you saying meg 2 sales on Thursday are good

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, Unfitclock said:

@across the Jat verse are you saying meg 2 sales on Thursday are good

He’s saying it would be great if Keyser can provide Meg 2 Thursday numbers.

[Unfitclock]

@XXR Dar-Benn ok my bad I read that wrong 😂 

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Early Shows(7/31) - 22794/31126 469960.56 167 shows

Previews - 75203/535050 1148280.25 3418 shows

 

As I posted earlier early shows are pointing to about 2.2m in gross. Previews looks like finishing around half of MI7. I am thinking ~6m overall previews. 

TMNT MTC1

Previews Final - 89414/534762 1373223.52 3416 shows

Wednesday -  40290/750697 590822.18 4822 shows

 

No change in my prediction. Its finishing just as I expected. Wednesday probably looking at 90-100K finish. 5-6m wednesday minus previews. not sure how it will be reported. 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Previews Final - 89414/534762 1373223.52 3416 shows

If discounted tix are like MI7, that will be just $3.5M previews. I expected better. Atleast WED sales looks better.

[keysersoze123]

Meg 2 MTC1 previews(T-2) - 17401/322460 293565.81 2320 shows

 

Since this is my 1st look, I do not have any clue about its daily pace but that total for T-2 is just meh and this is a sequel. I will check tomorrow to see where it can end up and may be look at friday to get a sense of its internal multiplier. But I am sure its OW in China should be higher and I am not that impressed by its presales there either 🙂

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Meg 2 MTC1 previews(T-2) - 17401/322460 293565.81 2320 shows

 

Since this is my 1st look, I do not have any clue about its daily pace but that total for T-2 is just meh and this is a sequel. I will check tomorrow to see where it can end up and may be look at friday to get a sense of its internal multiplier. But I am sure its OW in China should be higher and I am not that impressed by its presales there either 🙂

This movie really is exhibit A for  No Thanks We were good after one of these.