The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[The Wild Eric]

29 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Damn, that would be crushingly disappointing for DreamWorks's swan song. Are families just saving up for Moana 2?

It’s not even midnight on the West Coast.

[Allanheimer]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Damn, that would be crushingly disappointing for DreamWorks's swan song. Are families just saving up for Moana 2?

 

$2m would still be nearly twice as high as The Bad Guys which opened to $24m.

 

It's only disappointing if you had your heart set on $3m which was frankly never guaranteed. "Crushingly"? Well now you're just being dramatic.

[CheeseWizard]

So what kind of drop should be expected of TFOne? BoxOfficePro has it at 40%-50%, and BoxOfficeReport has it at 68%. 

[Ryan C]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Damn, that would be crushingly disappointing for DreamWorks's swan song. Are families just saving up for Moana 2?

 

Swan song? Unless you're talking about this being the last DreamWorks movie to be animated in-house, this isn't DreamWorks' swan song. Whether their animation is outsourced or not, they still have plenty of animated films coming down the pipeline.

 

Also, even if this does come in at just $30M, that's still a very good number for a DreamWorks film that isn't a sequel and doesn't cost over $100M. 

 

Don't want to come across as too cynical, but some of you were really overestimating how this movie would do. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

30 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

So what kind of drop should be expected of TFOne? BoxOfficePro has it at 40%-50%, and BoxOfficeReport has it at 68%. 

Going off of the weekday drops, it'll probably drop in line with the very similar Furiosa, another movie rejected unseen by casuals, which dropped roughly 60% in its second weekend. I wouldn't expect anything better than the mid-50s as far as drop percentages go.

[CheeseWizard]

4 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Going off of the weekday drops, it'll probably drop in line with the very similar Furiosa, another movie rejected unseen by casuals, which dropped roughly 60% in its second weekend. I wouldn't expect anything better than the mid-50s as far as drop percentages go.

Would there be any merit in me comparing it to the drops of other September animated releases? Cus the drops rn look pretty similar to Smallfoot atm 

[Allanheimer]

51 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Would there be any merit in me comparing it to the drops of other September animated releases? Cus the drops rn look pretty similar to Smallfoot atm 

 

Not really, because most of those didn't go straight up against such direct competition in weekend 2.

 

Dumbo (2019) isn't a terrible comp. Fairly similar daily drops and went up against Shazam! in weekend 2 which lead to a 60% drop. I don't think its dropping quite that hard but all signs point to 55-60%. 

[CheeseWizard]

13 minutes ago, Allanheimer said:

 

Not really, because most of those didn't go straight up against such direct competition in weekend 2.

 

Dumbo (2019) isn't a terrible comp. Fairly similar daily drops and went up against Shazam! in weekend 2 which lead to a 60% drop. I don't think its dropping quite that hard but all signs point to 55-60%. 

Honestly the smallfoot comp doesn’t work well in that regard. Comparing Wild Robot’s affect on Transforemrs to fucking Venom’s affect on Smallfoot is weird, but it did get me wondering about demographics. Like what % of Venom’s audience were families that had kids? What’s usually the average % of families and kids at attendance for animated movies? 
 

I wanna do more research on this tbh 

[Allanheimer]

1 hour ago, CheeseWizard said:

Honestly the smallfoot comp doesn’t work well in that regard. Comparing Wild Robot’s affect on Transforemrs to fucking Venom’s affect on Smallfoot is weird, but it did get me wondering about demographics. Like what % of Venom’s audience were families that had kids? What’s usually the average % of families and kids at attendance for animated movies? 
 

I wanna do more research on this tbh 

 

Might be worth looking at House with a Clock in its Walls. Ran into Abominable in weekend 2 and suffered a 53% drop. Dailt totals have tracked very close to TF:ONE

[vafrow]

On 9/22/2024 at 6:16 AM, vafrow said:

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, T-12, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 116

New Sales: 8

Growth: 7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 6.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 8/4

Early Evening: 72/9

Late Evening: 36/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 45/7

VIP: 41/6

IMAX: 30/6

 

Comps

1.333x Beetlejuice² for $13.1M

0.736x GxK for $7.4M

0.244x Dune 2 for $2.4M

0.963x BB:RoD for $5.7M

0.325x The Marvels for $2.1M

1.064x Alien Romulus for $6.9M

Average: $6.3M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total:148

New sales: 10

Growth: 7%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.330x Dune 2 for $0.7M

2.027x Twisters for $5.5M

3.217x The Fall Guy for $2.6M

 

Average: $2.9M

 

I added more EA shows. That's still hard to pin down.

 

Growth in all areas remains steady.

 

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, T-7, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 170

New Sales since T-12: 54

Growth since T-12: 47%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 7.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 11/4

Early Evening: 115/9

Late Evening: 44/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 67/7

VIP: 67/6

IMAX: 36/6

 

Comps

1.405x Beetlejuice² for $13.8M

0.752x GxK for $7.5M

0.279x Dune 2 for $2.8M

0.810x BB:RoD for $4.7M

0.389x The Marvels for $2.6M

1.056x Alien Romulus for $6.9M

Average: $6.4M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total:240

New sales since T-12: 92

Growth: 62%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.455x Dune 2 for $0.7M

2.667x Twisters for $7.2M

4.444x The Fall Guy for $3.6M

 

Average: $3.9M

 

It's been a busy week for me so I haven't been able to post updates.

 

I don't have time to really try and interpret what's going on, but growth rate was slower at tje beginning of the week and is speeding up the last couple of days, but that's expected one week out.

[VanillaSkies]

Lady Gaga just released an album called “harlequin” which is supposedly a companion album to Joker 2. That might be why there is more acceleration the past couple of days.

[TomThomas]

10 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Might be a long shot but could Twisters’ last week work as a potential comp for Joker’s last week given that film’s own anemic pre-sales?

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