The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

Martin Scorsese is probably the greatest director of all time looking at movies like Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, Goodfellas and Departed. That said he is not a huge BO draw. Shutter Island did open to 41m. That was sold as a thriller(and it is a great movie). Wolf of the Wall Street and Departed did very well in BO but not huge openers. Those 2 movies were easier sell as well. 

 

Nolan did pull rabbit out of his hat with 3 hr drama Oppenheimer. I am not sure Scorsese can do it with 3 1/2 hr drama. Creation of Atom Bomb is still more "relatable" than what happened to Indian tribe in Oklahoma. 

 

That said I hope I am wrong and this one has MS/Leo's biggest OW. Especially if BO is barren leading to it. 

[poweranimals]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

When a tracker doesn't even know your film has early access, you know its DOA

 

 

The review embargo hasn't even lifted for this yet. 😂

[filmlover]

Honestly the relatively barren nature of the marketplace for the most part between now and November is more likely to help those holiday heavy-hitters more than anything else. It's going to be the first holiday season in a while without an instantly obvious 800 pound gorilla (ala Frozen, Star Wars, Spider-Man, Black Panther, Avatar) in plain sight, which should help the notable movies on the already thin schedule (that might be getting thinner soon but we'll cross that bridge when/if we get there).

Edited August 17, 2023 by filmlover

[Bob Train]

FNAF opening weekend will save the Fall.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

57 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Some of the horror movies could open well but that is really a weak Sep/Oct for sure. I am feeling good about Dune 2 opening big if it opens as scheduled. Flower Moon with Leo cannot be underestimated but subject matter and length makes me think OW wont be that huge. But we have to see close to release how things go. Hopefully the strikes are done and Leo is able to market the movie. 

 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

I'm gonna post pre-sale numbers for Blue Beetle and Strays tomorrow at the theater I used to work at, but I did notice something interesting about the former. Traditional 2D screening sales are on par with IMAX and Dolby screenings there, in terms of seats sold. The obvious caveat is that there's only one screen for both PLFs respectively as opposed to 2D, but I don't see that often with four-quadrant movies like BB at this theater. They're usually Dolby/IMAX heavy unless it's a huge event like No Way Home.

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Blue Beetle MTC1

Previews(T-2) -  34063/575282 586161.53 2965 shows +4218

Friday - 23941/809054 402856.25 4147 shows

Blue Beetle MTC1

Previews(T-1) -  43443/582166 739284.69 3006 shows +9380

Friday - 30701/818055 512920.21 4213 shows

 

 

I think good boost considering its T-1 and also good reviews helped it from not so great situation. Its pace is well ahead of Shazam 2 and based on usual formula it can do 80K. Let us see how the walkups go. I am thinking 4m previews and 30-35m OW with good walkups. 

 

 

 

[HummingLemon]

How does this do $35M OW off of $4M previews? That would be an 8.75x IM. I know reception is ""positive"" but that seems a little high for a (semi) summer movie

Edited August 17, 2023 by HummingLemon

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon said:

How does this do $35M OW off of $4M previews? That would be an 8.75x IM. I know reception is ""positive"" but that seems a little high for a (semi) summer movie

Some schools went back this week, I think? 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Blue Beetle Sacto Report [T-2]

792/18331 [4.31% sold] [+164 tickets]

 

0.30829x Black Adam at T-2             [2.34m]
0.97899x Shazam 2 at T-2                 [3.43m]
0.33235x Fast X at T-2                       [2.49m]
1.17682x Elemental at T-2                  [2.82m]
0.28065x Flash at T-2                        [2.72m]
0.72461x Haunted Mansion at T-2    [2.25m]

 

===========

 

Been gaining rapidly on Shazam 2 (was something like 75% to 80% of it a couple of days ago) but that's also the best case scenario.

 

Here's where I throw out a couple of cautionary notes, in both directions.  As I've said countless times, for whatever reason, DC just plays softly in this market.  On the other hand, I would expect the Hispanic demo to help somewhat counteract that. 

 

On the other flip side, comparing a film that seems to be charting anywhere from 2.5m to 3.75m against ones that did 7m or more is... not wise. At all. On the other other hand, Haunted Mansion and Elemental aren't great comps either.

 

When it comes right down to it, accelerating against Shazam 2 is a good sign.  But that's also the best sign it has, so perhaps best not to read too much into it. 

 

Now we see whether or not Tomato Law comes into play.

 

Quick and Dirty Blue Beetle Sacto Report [T-1]

1140/18331 [6.22% sold] [+348 tickets]

 

0.36145x Black Adam               [2.75m]
1.06642x Shazam 2                  [3.73m]
0.38934x Fast X                       [2.92m]
1.16208x Elemental                  [2.79m]
0.31518x Flash                          [3.06m]
0.80056x Haunted Mansion    [2.48m]

 

===

 

Pretty decent review bounce locally.  All comps rose, most by a good amount.  Even Shazam 2's comp rose .3m.  If Sacto is indicative (and, remember, no promises from Q&D's), 3m+ looks to be very likely.  

 

3.5m+?   Well, let's see how walkups are tomorrow.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Blue Beetle, T-2, sougrthern Ontario

 

Good growth today, with ticket total reaching 753, with 168 new sales. Growth rate of 29%.

 

Local unadjusted comps are

0.370x Flash for $3.6M

0.869x T:ROTB for $6.8M

 

Adjusting to regional totals keeps range to $2.2M to $4.1M.

 

 

 

 

Blue Beetle, T-1, southern Ontario

 

Great growth today. Sales at 1161, for 408 new sales, giving a 54% increase. My hope was for above 40%. This gives good hope for walkups. Note, I won't be able to measure walk ups for a wide region. If I can, I'll do my local theatre.

 

Sales did not go up much at my local, so unadjusted comps are trending down.

 

0.307x Flash for $3.0M

0.697x T:ROTB for $6.1M

 

Adjusted comps give a range of $2.4M to $5.0M.

 

Between the two comps, Transformers had great walkups and Flash had mediocre walk ups, so I can see the final results falling in between, with a $3.5 M to $4M preview range.

[M37]

10 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

That would be a relatively low multi imo. Except for The Flash recent DC movies have had multi's of high 7 to high 8 (The Batman at 7.61, Black Adam at 8.81 and Shazam 2 at 8.85).

Batman was only 6.20x (or ~7.4x if you remove EA shows). Shazam had a 2.44x Th/Fri in March, Black Adam a 2.51x in October, both of which would be very high for mid-August

 

Something like 2x/+40%/-25% is probably around the high end (~7.9x), and given where Friday sales sit I’d probably take under that 2x. Something like 6.75-7.75x would be my IM range, more likely over 7x than not, but perhaps not by much 

[ChipDerby]

$5 mil in previews, baby! It's coming! 

[filmlover]

Blah reviews for Strays won't move the needle much now that the embargo is over.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-1	Jax	5	55	41	205	7,933	2.58%
		Phx	6	52	51	215	9,482	2.27%
		Ral	8	41	74	279	5,880	4.74%
	Total		19	148	166	699	23,295	3.00%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-2	Jax	4	4	3	10	821	1.22%
		Phx	4	4	2	5	544	0.92%
		Ral	2	2	4	24	155	15.48%
	Total		10	10	9	39	1,520	2.57%
	T-3	Jax	4	8	13	31	1,642	1.89%
		Phx	4	8	4	30	1,098	2.73%
		Ral	2	4	7	16	310	5.16%
	Total		10	20	24	77	3,050	2.52%
	T-4	Jax	4	5	1	8	712	1.12%
		Phx	4	5	2	5	670	0.75%
		Ral	2	2	6	10	155	6.45%
	Total		10	12	9	23	1,537	1.50%
Strays	T-1	Jax	6	21	20	58	2,430	2.39%
		Phx	6	25	12	52	3,163	1.64%
		Ral	7	26	4	43	3,227	1.33%
	Total		19	72	36	153	8,820	1.73%
Strays (EA)	T-0	Jax	3	3	3	24	352	6.82%
		Phx	4	4	17	24	449	5.35%
		Ral	4	4	18	54	506	10.67%
	Total		11	11	38	102	1,307	7.80%

 

Strays (Total) T-1 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.406x (1.2m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .966x (1.06m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .458x (581k)*

 - Cocaine Bear - .61x (1.22m)

 - Violent Night - 1.342x (1.48m) 

 - Turtles (Total) - .143x (800k)

 - Magic Mike 3 - .77x (770k)

 

*I realized I had been using previews only comp for 80 for Brady.  

 

Size adjusted average - 1.05m

Still thinking around 1m for this with EA included.  Final day will be key for comedies.

 

Strays (previews) pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Strays			18.46%	30.77%
Easter Sunday	85.96%	43.86%	0.00%	17.78%
Joy Ride	57.14%	14.29%	35.71%	42.59%
80 for Brady	60.99%	31.91%	26.04%	25.41%
Cocaine Bear			12.73%	29.81%
Violent Night				24.18%
Turtles	58.06%	33.76%	22.73%	25.00%
Magic Mike 3	79.89%	27.72%	36.84%	23.05%

EA had a big jump, but previews also had a nice day - ahead of everything other than Joy Ride.  Missing Sunday messed up the 3-days, but they'll be back tomorrow.

 

Blue Beetle T-1 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.67x (3.34m)

 - Bullet Train - .943x (3.16m)

 - Turtles - .95x (3.66m)

 - Suicide Squad - .73x (2.99m)

 - Shazam 2 - .84x (2.86m)

 - Black Adam - .306x (2.33m)

 - Flash - .252x (2.44m)

 - Morbius - .404x (2.3m)

 - Snake Eyes - 2.24x (3.14m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.05m

 

Blue Beetle pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Blue Beetle			29.53%	31.14%
Cocaine Bear			12.73%	29.81%
Bullet Train	100.81%	26.56%	19.93%	41.14%
Turtles	58.06%	33.76%	22.73%	25.00%
Suicide Squad	86.74%	22.81%	23.74%	31.23%
Shazam 2	44.44%	13.89%	7.86%	16.36%
Black Adam				22.68%
Flash	52.59%	17.60%	15.82%	20.66%
Morbius	76.09%	20.24%	21.81%	22.07%
Snake Eyes	143.75%	37.50%	55.00%	36.24%

 

As expected, will continue to gain on other CBM movies since their earlier sales make the increase % smaller.  I see no reason to move off 3m yet.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-0	Jax	5	55	89	294	7,933	3.71%
		Phx	6	52	96	311	9,482	3.28%
		Ral	8	42	80	359	5,943	6.04%
	Total		19	149	265	964	23,358	4.13%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-1	Jax	4	4	9	19	821	2.31%
		Phx	4	4	4	9	544	1.65%
		Ral	2	2	6	30	155	19.35%
	Total		10	10	19	58	1,520	3.82%
	T-2	Jax	4	8	5	36	1,642	2.19%
		Phx	4	8	6	36	1,098	3.28%
		Ral	2	4	2	18	310	5.81%
	Total		10	20	13	90	3,050	2.95%
	T-3	Jax	4	5	1	9	712	1.26%
		Phx	4	5	2	7	670	1.04%
		Ral	2	2	5	15	155	9.68%
	Total		10	12	8	31	1,537	2.02%
Strays	T-0	Jax	6	21	14	72	2,430	2.96%
		Phx	6	25	28	80	3,163	2.53%
		Ral	7	26	33	76	3,227	2.36%
	Total		19	72	75	228	8,820	2.59%

 

*Switching to previews only comps

 

Strays (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.824x (912k)

 - Joy Ride - 2.17x (1.95m)

 - 80 for Brady - .781x (586k)

 - Cocaine Bear - .384x (769k)

 - Violent Night - .857x (943k) 

 - Turtles - .201x (772k)

 - Magic Mike 3 - .598x (598k)

 

Size adjusted average - 940k

Growth model forecast - 1.03m

 

Strays (previews) pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Strays	121.36%	32.04%	20.00%	49.02%
Easter Sunday	95.31%	28.13%	34.78%	17.92%
Joy Ride	90.91%	20.00%	31.82%	36.36%
80 for Brady	85.99%	26.75%	20.87%	28.63%
Cocaine Bear	144.03%	32.92%	9.82%	41.87%
Violent Night	133.33%			40.00%
Turtles	111.73%	34.45%	25.57%	54.69%
Magic Mike 3	70.85%			15.11%

 

 

Joy Ride EA had nearly double the sales as it had for preview sales at T-0 morning.  Strays is the opposite, with previews doubling EA sales.  Looking at all my comedy comps, only Joy Ride (1.95m) and Hitman's Wifes Bodyguard (1.06m) comp over 1m, with most coming in between 550k and 600k.  That being said, most of those movies were a lot larger.  I don't think EA total will be very high, maybe 150k.  Unless today really picks up, we could be closer to 900k total than 1m.

 

Blue Beetle T-0 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.63x (3.25m)

 - Bullet Train - .923x (3.09m)

 - Turtles - .85x (3.26m)

 - Suicide Squad - .761x (3.12m)

 - Shazam 2 - .77x (2.61m)

 - Black Adam - .344x (2.61m)

 - Flash - .267x (2.59m)

 - Morbius - .43x (2.45m)

 - Snake Eyes - 2.33x (3.26m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.02m

Growth model forecast - 2.99m

 

Blue Beetle pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Blue Beetle	125.23%	28.74%	32.13%	37.91%
Cocaine Bear	144.03%	32.92%	9.82%	41.87%
Bullet Train	140.55%	26.50%	24.45%	40.89%
Turtles	111.73%	34.45%	25.57%	54.69%
Suicide Squad	105.35%	31.12%	25.65%	32.25%
Shazam 2	95.79%	19.31%	10.04%	51.08%
Black Adam				22.82%
Flash	79.49%	20.31%	17.99%	29.99%
Morbius	99.91%	25.25%	21.00%	29.46%
Snake Eyes	150.91%	42.42%	50.53%	32.69%

 

It felt like a good review bump today, but the chart tells a different story.  It's keeping track with non-CBM movies, but it did increase against the bottom four and Suicide Squad.  I'm intrigued by the other regions forecasting up to 4m because I just don't see it.  Sticking with 3m.

 

Finally, I took a look at Back on the Strip today.  It has sold 9 tickets in 24 shows in my regions.  That's the third lowest that I've tracked, just ahead of Sweetwater (8) and Joe Bell (6).  

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-8	Jax	5	28	1	6	3,574	0.17%
		Phx	6	31	3	10	5,631	0.18%
		Ral	7	26	5	12	3,427	0.35%
	Total		18	85	9	28	12,632	0.22%

 

I've been tracking this since it went back on sale but it really hasn't been worth posting.  Expecting sales to start jumping after all the EA shows pass (T-3)

 

GT T-8 comps

 - F9 - .031x (221k)

 - MI:7 - .047x (302k)

 - Haunted Mansion - .103x (299k)

 - Turtles - .095x (367k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .212x (573k)

 - Lost City - .167x (417k)

 - Free Guy - .224x (493k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-7	Jax	5	28	5	11	3,574	0.31%
		Phx	6	32	3	13	5,708	0.23%
		Ral	7	26	3	15	3,427	0.44%
	Total		18	86	11	39	12,709	0.31%

 

GT T-7 comps

 - F9 - .04x (287k)

 - MI:7 - .059x (378k)

 - Haunted Mansion - .138x (400k)

 - Turtles - .127x (488k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .252x (679k)

 - Lost City - .195x (488k)

 - Free Guy - .244x (536k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-15	Jax	5	46	15	15	8,308	0.18%
		Phx	6	32	29	29	6,700	0.43%
		Ral	4	25	15	15	4,638	0.32%
	Total		15	103	59	59	19,646	0.30%

 

Equalizer 3 T-15 comps 

 - John Wick 4 - .09x (803k)

 - Matrix 4 - .09x (574k)

 - F9 - .109x (774k)

 

Not really great comps since the others had been on sale for a long time.  It's getting a pretty good starting set of shows with IMAX and Dolby among other PLFs.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-14	Jax	5	46	12	27	8,308	0.32%
		Phx	6	32	2	31	6,700	0.46%
		Ral	5	28	2	17	5,001	0.34%
	Total		16	106	16	75	20,009	0.37%

 

Equalizer 3 T-14 comps 

 - John Wick 4 - .104x (926k)

 - Matrix 4 - .09x (574k)

 - F9 - .132x (934k)

[vafrow]

Raising this just based on observation, and trying to better understand my market.

 

When I started tracking on Blue Beetle, lacking comps, I was looking at how it compared to other regions to better understand.

 

A week ago, southern Ontario had 1.3 tickets per showtime. @TheFlatLannister had 5.7 tickets per showtime. I figured that my region would just greatly underperform.

 

As of most recent updates, my region is at 7.1 tickets per showtime. Orlando is 8.0.

 

As I track more, I'll need to see if this sales pattern is typical or not, but I didn't expect to see such drastically different sales curves.

 

I'm now a bit more eager to see how Gran Turismo plays out.

[SpiderByte]

9 hours ago, Bob Train said:

FNAF opening weekend will save the Fall.

It's a hybrid so...no.

[Relevation]

3 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

It's a hybrid so...no.

Who cares, no one has peacock 

FNAF $100M OW trust the process