The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

low $20ms so like a 6.5x IM

So XXR was right when he said a 6-7x IM

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 hours ago, HummingLemon said:

So XXR was right 

 

 

 

[Mojoguy]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

3.3/5.2/8/5

~$21.5M

 

But lets wait for keyser, jat, and katniss updates 

Barbie will have 6 weekends at 1st place!😀

[Bob Train]

Think Gran Turismo takes Barbie down assuming Blue Beetle doesn't. There's a bigger audience for that movie than people assume, and it has 200 days of EA rolled into the opening "weekend".

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-0	Jax	4	4	36	55	821	6.70%
		Phx	4	4	18	27	544	4.96%
		Ral	2	2	28	58	155	37.42%
	Total		10	10	82	140	1,520	9.21%
	T-1	Jax	4	8	1	37	1,642	2.25%
		Phx	4	8	5	41	1,098	3.73%
		Ral	2	4	10	28	310	9.03%
	Total		10	20	16	106	3,050	3.48%
	T-2	Jax	4	5	3	12	712	1.69%
		Phx	4	5	4	11	670	1.64%
		Ral	2	2	0	15	155	9.68%
	Total		10	12	7	38	1,537	2.47%

 

Pretty good jump for today.  Expecting the same throughout the weekend.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-0	Jax	4	8	21	58	1,642	3.53%
		Phx	4	8	23	64	1,098	5.83%
		Ral	2	4	19	47	310	15.16%
	Total		10	20	63	169	3,050	5.54%
	T-1	Jax	4	5	12	24	712	3.37%
		Phx	4	5	11	22	670	3.28%
		Ral	2	2	10	25	155	16.13%
	Total		10	12	33	71	1,537	4.62%

 

Gran Turismo EA days T-0

8/2 - 50 (2 shows)

8/8 - 20 (2)

8/9 - 343 (8)

8/11 - 172 (9)

8/12 - 234 (18)

8/13 - missed (T-1 was 82, 8/11 was similar sold and # of shows so likely ~150) (9 shows)

8/18 - 140 (10)

8/19 - 169 (20)

8/20 - ??? (this weekend's jumps have been higher so I'm looking for ~150 with lower starting point)

 

All of that combined (with predicted finals) would be 1,428 tickets sold as of T-0.  Here are some movies that had similar T-0 finals in my areas:

 

RRR - 1,424 (3.45m)

Halloween Ends - 1,435 (5.4m)

Paw Patrol - 1,404 (4.5m)

Scream 5 - 1,397 (3.5m)

Jesus Revolution (EA) - 1,381 (2.36m)

 

I'm not sure how these have been doing across the country, but I'd say that's a great start for a movie that doesn't even open for five more days.  I'll stick with my ~3m prediction for all of EA but there's a pretty big range it could fall in.

[vafrow]

On 8/16/2023 at 8:23 PM, vafrow said:

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-8

 

I wasn't going to do Gran Turismo after I did an initial count before they postponed it, but, figured I'd do one.

 

At T-8, it's at exactly 100 tickets sold across 50 theatres and 177 showtimes.

 

Off it's premium screen allocation, I think it's going to great business on National Cinema Day.

 

I have a direct comp now with Blue Beetle, which was at 221 on the same day, leaving GT at 45% at same point in time. With comps on that most recently pointing to $3.1M, that gives it $1.4M

 

My local theatre has sold zero tickets, so hard to do any local comps. But, If I adjust my local comps to same tickets sold per showtime, it brings it to

 

0.141x Fast X for $1.1M

0.085x T:ROTB for $0.7M

 

Not great numbers, but, I haven't done any analysis on the EA shows, and that will suck up a lot of early demand.

 

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-6

 

Sales at 146, so 46% growth since last update, but only 11% growth yesterday. 

 

Regional comp

 

0.428x Blue Beetle for $1.4M

 

Local comps extrapulated to region

 

0.124x Fast X for $1.1M

0.088x T:ROTB for $0.7M

 

Basically staying flat against the local and regional comps. This doesn't take into account EA shows.

 

Just pure Thursday shows in the $1-1.5M range would be my guess at the moment. 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

5 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-6

 

Sales at 146, so 46% growth since last update, but only 11% growth yesterday. 

 

Regional comp

 

0.428x Blue Beetle for $1.4M

 

Local comps extrapulated to region

 

0.124x Fast X for $1.1M

0.088x T:ROTB for $0.7M

 

Basically staying flat against the local and regional comps. This doesn't take into account EA shows.

 

Just pure Thursday shows in the $1-1.5M range would be my guess at the moment. 

 

Not too different from mine.  I'm hoping that EA is just priority right now for viewers and that we'll see it pick up on Monday once those shows are done.  Do you know if Ontario is offering the EA shows as well?

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/18/2023 at 10:23 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-6	Jax	5	46	10	21	8,609	0.24%
		Phx	6	38	35	48	7,562	0.63%
		Ral	7	30	20	35	4,361	0.80%
	Total		18	114	65	104	20,532	0.51%

 

GT T-6 comps

 - F9 - .1x (709k)

 - MI:7 - .143x (913k)

 - Haunted Mansion - .312x (906k)

 - Turtles - .295x (1.14m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .605x (1.63m)

 - Lost City - .512x (1.28m)

 - Free Guy - .512x (1.13m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 1.63m

 

Much much better.  Finally got some IMAX and Dolby shows up yesterday and those are actually selling tickets.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-5	Jax	5	46	5	26	8,609	0.30%
		Phx	6	38	0	48	7,562	0.63%
		Ral	7	30	8	43	4,361	0.99%
	Total		18	114	13	117	20,532	0.57%

 

GT T-5 comps

 - F9 - .103x (729k)

 - MI:7 - .143x (914k)

 - Haunted Mansion - .308x (893k)

 - Turtles - .303x (1.17m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .654x (1.76m)

 - Lost City - .549x (1.37m)

 - Free Guy - .492x (1.08m)

 - Meg 2 - .854x (2.73m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 2.06m

Edited August 20, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-13	Jax	5	46	4	31	8,308	0.37%
		Phx	6	32	1	32	6,700	0.48%
		Ral	6	31	2	19	5,244	0.36%
	Total		17	109	7	82	20,252	0.40%

 

Equalizer 3 T-13 comps 

 - John Wick 4 - .103x (918k)

 - Matrix 4 - .089x (569k)

 - F9 - .128x (910k)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - .529x (1.77m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-12	Jax	5	46	9	40	8,308	0.48%
		Phx	6	32	6	38	6,700	0.57%
		Ral	6	31	9	28	5,244	0.53%
	Total		17	109	24	106	20,252	0.52%

 

Equalizer 3 T-12 comps 

 - John Wick 4 - .122x (1.09m)

 - Matrix 4 - missed

 - F9 - .151x (1.07m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - .57x (1.91m)

[vafrow]

3 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Not too different from mine.  I'm hoping that EA is just priority right now for viewers and that we'll see it pick up on Monday once those shows are done.  Do you know if Ontario is offering the EA shows as well?

 

Yes, there's a bunch today and tomorrow. But some are listed specifically as early access showings, some are listed as just regular showings on that day. It was honestly too much of a hassle to keep track of.

 

But, I agree. People really eager aren't likely waiting for the Thursday previews. The problem I think this film will have though, is really eager fans will do the EA shows. Once word gets out about National Cinema Day, lots of people will try and get tickets for that day. Especially if it's fixed prices for all screens and this has PLFs.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-14, southern Ontario

 

Ticket sales were only at 2 when I discovered they were available for sale on Wednesday. They're now at 53, which seems like a decent baseline for something that's not going to have a lot of up front demand.

 

Using the only true regional comp I now have

 

0.488x* of Blue Beetle for $1.7M**

 

*I don't have a T-14 count for BB, so I'm using an average of T-13 and T-15.

 

**I'm using $3.5M for Blue Beetle until we get a confirmed number later today.

 

I'm not going to bother with trying to adjust a local comp for this, as I don't have anything that is really a good comparable to make it worthwhile.

 

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-13, southern Ontario

 

Sales at 66, with 13 new sales and a 25% increase.

 

Regional comp

 

0.465x Blue Beetle for $1.5M

 

The decease for comp is mainly from BB coming in lower than my estimate yesterday.

 

 

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-6

 

Sales at 146, so 46% growth since last update, but only 11% growth yesterday. 

 

Regional comp

 

0.428x Blue Beetle for $1.4M

 

Local comps extrapulated to region

 

0.124x Fast X for $1.1M

0.088x T:ROTB for $0.7M

 

Basically staying flat against the local and regional comps. This doesn't take into account EA shows.

 

Just pure Thursday shows in the $1-1.5M range would be my guess at the moment. 

 

Im got so confused with GTs "week long opening weekend" that I admittedly am unsure of how to track it-like even Canadian dates were like all over the place depending on the theatre lol. I might try and get some tracking done for Thurs Fri, but it was confusing to see all the dates lol

[vafrow]

18 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Im got so confused with GTs "week long opening weekend" that I admittedly am unsure of how to track it-like even Canadian dates were like all over the place depending on the theatre lol. I might try and get some tracking done for Thurs Fri, but it was confusing to see all the dates lol

 

I actually had set up tracking for its initial date, and did a sweep on it before they delayed, so, it just pissed me off and I wasn't going to bother. But, after Blue Beetle tracking went well, I wanted to do another mid range film to try and tweak my process.

 

I feel like the delay is going to ultimately prove to be pretty pointless. There's the same level of general disinterest for this now as there would have been if they released last week.

[Litio]

‘The Nun II’ Looks For $30M+ Post Labor Day Blessing At Box Office — Early Look

 

Quote

It’s still early for the film campaign wise with only two teaser posters released and the YouTube trailer at 26M views (versus The Meg 2‘s official trailer at 43M on the Warner Bros channel), so there’s a chance for upside.

Right now tracking stats for The Nun II look similar to Insidious: The Red Door, ($33M opening) despite the fact that the former is an R-rated movie, and the latter PG-13. Translation: Unaided awareness (the organic stat where those polled actually name a studio’s a movie as what they want to see without any prompting) is very hot among women under 25.

 

[filmlover]

@datpepper any idea what the expected rollout for Bottoms is like? It's opening in limited release next weekend before expanding over the Labor Day frame.

[VanillaSkies]

5 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Not too different from mine.  I'm hoping that EA is just priority right now for viewers and that we'll see it pick up on Monday once those shows are done.  Do you know if Ontario is offering the EA shows as well?

Yes, I see many Gran EA shows for this evening (7pm) through Ontario. They are filling up pretty well too. I imagine like everywhere else, this is prevent Thursday previews from building too much at this point.

 

Like you, I suspect once the weekend has passed it will accelerate. The only wrench is the announcement of National Cinema Day. That might shift sales from Thursday to Sunday…

[misterpepp]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

@datpepper any idea what the expected rollout for Bottoms is like? It's opening in limited release next weekend before expanding over the Labor Day frame.

 

I don't think it's going very far. Think the limited release this weekend is only a handful or so locations, the week after seems to be just major metros for now (thinking a few hundred at most, maybe around the amount Landscape is at this weekend). Beyond that is likely dependent on the performance of weeks 1+2.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	213	29254	0.73%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

34

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(0.187x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$1.31M THUR Previews

 

(0.147x) of Fast X

~$1.10M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.21M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	264	29254	0.90%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

51

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.241x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$1.69M THUR Previews

 

(0.180x) of Fast X

~$1.35M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.52M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Gran Turismo 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	308	30548	1.00%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.169x) of Fast X

~$1.27M THUR Previews

 

(0.192x) of Mi7 (only TUES)

~$1.35M THUR Previews

 

(0.314x) of Blue Beetle

~$1.04M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.22M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Gran Turismo 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	339	30548	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.176x) of Fast X

~$1.32M THUR Previews

 

(0.199x) of Mi7 (only TUES)

~$1.39M THUR Previews

 

(0.329x) of Blue Beetle

~$1.09M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.27M

[CJohn]

Equalizer and GT need to get better fast.