The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

vafrow · August 20, 2023

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-6

Sales at 146, so 46% growth since last update, but only 11% growth yesterday.

Regional comp

0.428x Blue Beetle for $1.4M

Local comps extrapulated to region

0.124x Fast X for $1.1M

0.088x T:ROTB for $0.7M

Basically staying flat against the local and regional comps. This doesn't take into account EA shows.

Just pure Thursday shows in the $1-1.5M range would be my guess at the moment.

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-5

Total sales: 175

New sales: 29

Growth from yesterday: 20%

Theatre Count: 50

Showtimes: 177

Ticket per showtime: 0.989

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Regional comps

0.415x of Blue Beetle for $1.4M

Local comps regionally adjusted

0.148x Fast X for $1.3M

0.087x T:ROTB for $0.7M

New format, with less narrative, more stats.

Same issue that it's struggling with a low baseline. With EA shows this weekend, the hope is that word of mouth should help this week.

There's been no formal announcement from Cineplex on National Cinema Day. My fear remains that it's going to serve as a deterrent for people to buy tickets earlier. Showtimes for the coming weekend will get posted Tuesday night, so, they'll need to announce before that point, so I expect something soon. I'm guessing tomorrow.

Edited August 20, 2023 by vafrow

vafrow · August 20, 2023

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-13, southern Ontario

Sales at 66, with 13 new sales and a 25% increase.

Regional comp

0.465x Blue Beetle for $1.5M

The decease for comp is mainly from BB coming in lower than my estimate yesterday.

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-13, southern Ontario

Total sales: 75

New Sales: 9

Growth from yesterday: 14%

Theatre Count: 43

Showtimes: 148

Tickets per showtime: 0.507

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Regional comp

0.492x Blue Beetle for $1.6M

Edited August 20, 2023 by vafrow

Arlborn · August 20, 2023

17 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-5

Total sales: 175

New sales: 29

Growth from yesterday: 20%

Theatre Count: 50

Showtimes: 177

Ticket per showtime: 0.989

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Regional comps

0.415x of Blue Beetle for $1.4M

Local comps regionally adjusted

0.148x Fast X for $1.3M

0.087x T:ROTB for $0.7M

New format, with less narrative, more stats.

Same issue that it's struggling with a low baseline. With EA shows this weekend, the hope is that word of mouth should help this week.

There's been no formal announcement from Cineplex on National Cinema Day. My fear remains that it's going to serve as a deterrent for people to buy tickets earlier. Showtimes for the coming weekend will get posted Tuesday night, so, they'll need to announce before that point, so I expect something soon. I'm guessing tomorrow.

I like this new format, thank you for that

katnisscinnaplex · August 20, 2023

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Gran Turismo (EA) T-0 Jax 4 8 21 58 1,642 3.53%
Phx 4 8 23 64 1,098 5.83%
Ral 2 4 19 47 310 15.16%
Total 10 20 63 169 3,050 5.54%
T-1 Jax 4 5 12 24 712 3.37%
Phx 4 5 11 22 670 3.28%
Ral 2 2 10 25 155 16.13%
Total 10 12 33 71 1,537 4.62%

Gran Turismo EA days T-0

8/2 - 50 (2 shows)

8/8 - 20 (2)

8/9 - 343 (8)

8/11 - 172 (9)

8/12 - 234 (18)

8/13 - missed (T-1 was 82, 8/11 was similar sold and # of shows so likely ~150) (9 shows)

8/18 - 140 (10)

8/19 - 169 (20)

8/20 - ??? (this weekend's jumps have been higher so I'm looking for ~150 with lower starting point)

All of that combined (with predicted finals) would be 1,428 tickets sold as of T-0. Here are some movies that had similar T-0 finals in my areas:

RRR - 1,424 (3.45m)

Halloween Ends - 1,435 (5.4m)

Paw Patrol - 1,404 (4.5m)

Scream 5 - 1,397 (3.5m)

Jesus Revolution (EA) - 1,381 (2.36m)

I'm not sure how these have been doing across the country, but I'd say that's a great start for a movie that doesn't even open for five more days. I'll stick with my ~3m prediction for all of EA but there's a pretty big range it could fall in.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-0	Jax	4	5	21	45	712	6.32%
		Phx	4	5	11	33	670	4.93%
		Ral	2	2	8	33	155	21.29%
	Total		10	12	40	111	1,537	7.22%

Finished a little lower than expected. Sticking with 3m for all of EA.

katnisscinnaplex · August 20, 2023

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Gran Turismo T-5 Jax 5 46 5 26 8,609 0.30%
Phx 6 38 0 48 7,562 0.63%
Ral 7 30 8 43 4,361 0.99%
Total 18 114 13 117 20,532 0.57%

GT T-5 comps

- F9 - .103x (729k)

- MI:7 - .143x (914k)

- Haunted Mansion - .308x (893k)

- Turtles - .303x (1.17m)

- Jungle Cruise - .654x (1.76m)

- Lost City - .549x (1.37m)

- Free Guy - .492x (1.08m)

- Meg 2 - .854x (2.73m)

Size adjusted avg - 2.06m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-4	Jax	5	51	1	27	8,950	0.30%
		Phx	6	38	1	49	7,562	0.65%
		Ral	8	32	4	47	4,487	1.05%
	Total		19	121	6	123	20,999	0.59%

GT T-4 comps

- F9 - .099x (701k)

- MI:7 - .128x (819k)

- Haunted Mansion - .294x (851k)

- Turtles - .265x (1.02m)

- Jungle Cruise - .603x (1.63m)

- Lost City - .513x (1.28m)

- Free Guy - .442x (973k)

- Meg 2 - .654x (2.09m)

Size adjusted avg - 2.86m

katnisscinnaplex · August 20, 2023

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Equalizer 3 T-12 Jax 5 46 9 40 8,308 0.48%
Phx 6 32 6 38 6,700 0.57%
Ral 6 31 9 28 5,244 0.53%
Total 17 109 24 106 20,252 0.52%

Equalizer 3 T-12 comps

- John Wick 4 - .122x (1.09m)

- Matrix 4 - missed

- F9 - .151x (1.07m)

- Bullet Train (Thu) - .57x (1.91m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-11	Jax	5	46	4	44	8,308	0.53%
		Phx	6	32	2	40	6,700	0.60%
		Ral	7	34	5	33	5,697	0.58%
	Total		18	112	11	117	20,705	0.57%

Equalizer 3 T-11 comps

- John Wick 4 - .127x (1.13m)

- Matrix 4 - .106x (674k)

- F9 - .157x (1.12m)

- Bullet Train (Thu) - .552x (1.85m)

filmlover · August 20, 2023

14 hours ago, datpepper said:

I don't think it's going very far. Think the limited release this weekend is only a handful or so locations, the week after seems to be just major metros for now (thinking a few hundred at most, maybe around the amount Landscape is at this weekend). Beyond that is likely dependent on the performance of weeks 1+2.

Probably sounds about right, I was looking at the sales two weeks out near me and it's actually sold quite a few seats so far (more than the other comedy nonstarters this summer). Can't help but wonder if that's because it looks like an A24 movie upon first glance heh.

Meanwhile, I saw an ad for Expendables yesterday with the September 22 date so it's clearly staying.

SnokesLegs · August 20, 2023

14 hours ago, CJohn said:

Equalizer and GT need to get better fast.

I wouldn’t expect much from GT, if it mirrors it’s UK performance then it’s DOA.

TheFlatLannister · August 20, 2023

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region

Gran Turismo

Thursday Previews

T-5

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

166

339

30548

1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

31

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-5

(0.176x) of Fast X

~$1.32M THUR Previews

(0.199x) of Mi7 (only TUES)

~$1.39M THUR Previews

(0.329x) of Blue Beetle

~$1.09M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.27M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region

Gran Turismo

Thursday Previews

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	359	30548	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

20

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-4

(0.178x) of Fast X

~$1.34M THUR Previews

(0.194x) of Mi7 (only TUES)

~$1.36M THUR Previews

(0.336x) of Blue Beetle

~$1.11M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.27M

TheFlatLannister · August 20, 2023

On 8/19/2023 at 6:18 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region

THE EQUALIZER 3

Thursday Previews

T-12

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

170

264

29254

0.90%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

51

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-12

(0.241x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$1.69M THUR Previews

(0.180x) of Fast X

~$1.35M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.52M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region

THE EQUALIZER 3

Thursday Previews

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	303	29254	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

39

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-11

(0.268x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$1.87M THUR Previews

(0.203x) of Fast X

~$1.52M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.70M

abracadabra1998 · August 21, 2023

On 8/17/2023 at 4:16 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Gran Turismo (T-7):

Day: T-7 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 13 theaters 54 43 43 10123 0.42

Pretty low but useless to comp right now because of the 800 or so EA days. On Sunday I'll start comping, as well as tracking Equalizer.

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: (numbers taken at around 4 PM CST as usual)

Gran Turismo (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	60	30	73	11644	0.68

Comps:

0.31x Blue Beetle- $1.02 Million

0.38x Haunted Mansion (just Thursday)- $1.17 Million

Not great but it's all about these last few days, interested to see if good WOM from the EA shows shows up in these sales.

The Equalizer (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	75	59	59	13946	0.42

I don't have great comps for this, but I tracked The Woman King last year and I think it might be a decent comp at that point of time (T-4 on). Don't really wanna compare this with the huge summer blockbusters

vafrow · August 21, 2023

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-5

Total sales: 175

New sales: 29

Growth from yesterday: 20%

Theatre Count: 50

Showtimes: 177

Ticket per showtime: 0.989

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Regional comps

0.415x of Blue Beetle for $1.4M

Local comps regionally adjusted

0.148x Fast X for $1.3M

0.087x T:ROTB for $0.7M

New format, with less narrative, more stats.

Same issue that it's struggling with a low baseline. With EA shows this weekend, the hope is that word of mouth should help this week.

There's been no formal announcement from Cineplex on National Cinema Day. My fear remains that it's going to serve as a deterrent for people to buy tickets earlier. Showtimes for the coming weekend will get posted Tuesday night, so, they'll need to announce before that point, so I expect something soon. I'm guessing tomorrow.

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-4

Total sales: 220

New sales: 45

Growth from yesterday: 25%

Theatre Count: 50

Showtimes: 177

Ticket per showtime: 1.243

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Regional comps

0.445x of Blue Beetle for $1.5M

Local comps regionally adjusted

0.169x Fast X for $1.5M

0.089x T:ROTB for $0.7M

Decent growth. With the weekend EA shows done, maybe it's triggering more sales. It's still nothing really special though.

vafrow · August 21, 2023

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-13, southern Ontario

Total sales: 75

New Sales: 9

Growth from yesterday: 14%

Theatre Count: 43

Showtimes: 148

Tickets per showtime: 0.507

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Regional comp

0.492x Blue Beetle for $1.6M

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-11, southern Ontario

Total sales: 91

New Sales: 16

Growth from yesterday: 21%

Theatre Count: 43

Showtimes: 148

Tickets per showtime: 0.615

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Regional comp

0.558x Blue Beetle for $1.8M

It went up against the comp, but, still pretty meh.

katnisscinnaplex · August 21, 2023

On 8/20/2023 at 7:49 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Gran Turismo T-4 Jax 5 51 1 27 8,950 0.30%
Phx 6 38 1 49 7,562 0.65%
Ral 8 32 4 47 4,487 1.05%
Total 19 121 6 123 20,999 0.59%

GT T-4 comps

- F9 - .099x (701k)

- MI:7 - .128x (819k)

- Haunted Mansion - .294x (851k)

- Turtles - .265x (1.02m)

- Jungle Cruise - .603x (1.63m)

- Lost City - .513x (1.28m)

- Free Guy - .442x (973k)

- Meg 2 - .654x (2.09m)

Size adjusted avg - 2.86m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-3	Jax	5	51	23	50	8,950	0.56%
		Phx	6	38	6	55	7,562	0.73%
		Ral	8	32	8	55	4,487	1.23%
	Total		19	121	37	160	20,999	0.76%

GT T-3 comps

- F9 - .11x (785k)

- MI:7 - .144x (920k)

- Haunted Mansion - .322x (934k)

- Turtles - .298x (1.15m)

- Jungle Cruise - .669x (1.81m)

- Lost City - .586x (1.47m)

- Free Guy - .525x (1.15m)

- Meg 2 - .717x (2.3m)

Size adjusted avg - 1.98m

katnisscinnaplex · August 21, 2023

On 8/20/2023 at 7:50 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Equalizer 3 T-11 Jax 5 46 4 44 8,308 0.53%
Phx 6 32 2 40 6,700 0.60%
Ral 7 34 5 33 5,697 0.58%
Total 18 112 11 117 20,705 0.57%

Equalizer 3 T-11 comps

- John Wick 4 - .127x (1.13m)

- Matrix 4 - .106x (674k)

- F9 - .157x (1.12m)

- Bullet Train (Thu) - .552x (1.85m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-10	Jax	5	46	11	55	8,308	0.66%
		Phx	6	32	2	42	6,700	0.63%
		Ral	7	34	7	40	5,697	0.70%
	Total		18	112	20	137	20,705	0.66%

Equalizer 3 T-10 comps

- John Wick 4 - .14x (1.24m)

- Matrix 4 - .116x (737k)

- F9 - .17x (1.2m)

- Bullet Train (Total) - .521x (2.4m)

- Knock at the Cabin - 1.47x (2.14m)

- Black Phone (Total) - .811x (2.43m)

- Creed III - .471x (2.57m)

Added some other comps to the mix.

Giorno · August 21, 2023

Do you guys think JP3D will outgross titanic 3d?

filmlover · August 21, 2023

National Cinema Day tickets on sale now.

vafrow · August 21, 2023

Question for the veterans here.

I know that designations for the different US based theatre chains are used of MTC1, MTC2, etc.

Is there any designation for the Canadian theatre chains? There's really one dominant chain here, but it's not quite a monopoly, and I wonder if I should be indicating that my source is just Cineplex, and not the entire market. And if so, is it designated with it's own abbreviation?

I only vaguely know the rationale for why that designation system is used, but if we are using it, I'm happy to apply it to my data. I just don't know what the abbreviation would be. MTC-Can maybe?

VanillaSkies · August 21, 2023

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

National Cinema Day tickets on sale now.

I truly hope it pulls in as many people as it did last year. Getting people back into the habit of theatre going on a regular basis should be the #1 goal right now. They should do these every 3/4 months during quiet periods tbh…..

Porthos · August 21, 2023

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

Question for the veterans here.

I know that designations for the different US based theatre chains are used of MTC1, MTC2, etc.

Is there any designation for the Canadian theatre chains? There's really one dominant chain here, but it's not quite a monopoly, and I wonder if I should be indicating that my source is just Cineplex, and not the entire market. And if so, is it designated with it's own abbreviation?

I only vaguely know the rationale for why that designation system is used, but if we are using it, I'm happy to apply it to my data. I just don't know what the abbreviation would be. MTC-Can maybe?

IIRC, MTC4 was used in the past, if sparingly.

*double checks*

Yep. Started to be used when we had a dedicated track of it just before the 'rona hit.

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	54	43	43	10123	0.42

Sign In

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

Recommended Posts

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Join the conversation

Recently Browsing 9 members

Today's Birthdays

Available Subscriptions

Important Information