The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

This is what November looks like now:

 

11/3: nada

11/10: The Marvels, Journey to Bethlehem, The Holdovers (wide expansion)

11/17: Hunger Games, Trolls, Thanksgiving, Next Goal Wins

11/22: Wish, Napoleon

 

Honestly, if something moved to that now empty first weekend, this would look like a very well-balanced month.

[Hilts]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: EXPEND4BLES - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar (as of 8/24/23)

 

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
9/1/2023	The Equalizer 3	$27,000,000 – $34,000,000	+7%	$69,000,000 – $93,500,000	+7%	Sony / Columbia Pictures
9/8/2023	My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	-15%	$24,000,000 – $43,000,000	-15%	Focus Features
9/8/2023	The Nun II	$30,000,000 – $45,000,000		$70,000,000 – $97,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
9/15/2023	A Haunting in Venice	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000		$37,000,000 – $57,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/15/2023	Amerikatsi					Variance Films / Everest Films
9/15/2023	Camp Hideout					Roadside Attractions
9/15/2023	Dumb Money (Platform LA / NY)					Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/22/2023	Barbie (IMAX Release)					Warner Bros. Pictures
9/22/2023	Dumb Money (Limited Expansion)					Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/22/2023	Expend4bles	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000		$31,000,000 – $45,000,000		Lionsgate

[vafrow]

On 8/24/2023 at 6:18 AM, vafrow said:

 

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-8, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  150

New Sales: 33

Growth from yesterday: 28%

Theatre Count:  51

Showtimes:  163

Tickets per showtime: 0.920

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Regional comp

0.679x Blue Beetle for $2.2M

 

Continues to be steady. With how it's improving steadily, I think $2.5M-$3.0M is the target range.

 

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-7, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  179

New Sales: 29

Growth from yesterday: 19%

Theatre Count:  51

Showtimes:  163

Tickets per showtime: 1.098

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Regional comp

0.565x Blue Beetle for $1.9M

1.356x Gran Turismo* for $1.7M

 

*I'm using Jats estimate from twitter this morning of $1.25M for GT.

 

It fell against BB, which had a big jump during this period.

 

I still feel that this should have a strong finish that keeps it above $2M, but we'll see how things go.

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, datpepper said:

Last post, I promise:

Angel Studios' next nationwide theatrical release, The Shift, opens December 1. Don't think it's been officially announced anywhere, but AMC has the date listed on their site.

 

And I'm sure there won't be any controversy around this one... surely... maybe...

 

Interesting - this was originally listed Dec 23/Jan 24 a few months ago, so they've decided to go for their earliest planned date, seeing the fall 23 slips for big movies...

 

Thanks for the date update!

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/18/2023 at 9:43 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Blue Beetle	3,229	82,394		67,241		15,153	5,044	0
Barbie	3,277	55,059	-28.89%	53,862	436.96	1,197	0	0
Strays	2,849	52,103		52,068		35	0	0
Ninja Turtles	2,937	41,226	-30.40%	37,252	257.90	3,974	0	3,075
Meg 2: The Trench	2,768	33,870	-30.17%	30,579	264.82	3,291	0	3,149
Oppenheimer	2,757	29,861	-25.90%	29,360	466.85	501	203	0
The Last Voyage	2,309	27,937	-12.51%	27,894	174.59	43	0	0
Haunted Mansion	1,918	19,961	-35.88%	19,887	186.23	74	0	0
Sound of Freedom	1,770	15,237	-37.69%	15,228	199.08	9	0	0
Talk to Me	1,591	14,693	-39.00%	14,685	212.40	8	0	0
Back on the Strip	1,265	11,138		11,138		0	0	0
Mission: Impossible	1,371	10,964	-37.52%	10,941	262.44	23	0	0
Jules	603	3,470	-68.12%	3,470	65.98	0	0	0
Gran Turismo EA 8/18-8/20	850	3,421	4.08%	3,398		23	0	0
Elemental	303	2,069	-47.66%	1,980	188.47	89	0	83
Indiana Jones	300	1,974	-48.34%	1,974	241.07	0	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

Strays - 52,103 (2,849 TC) (7,230 previews)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 50,762 (2,985) (5,131 previews)

 - No Hard Feelings - 55,242 (2,698) (7,970 previews)

 - Easter Sunday - 49,821 (2,846) (7,308 previews)

 

Blue Beetle - 82,394 (3,229 TC) (14,197 previews)

 - Dune - 82,661 (3,318) (9,877 previews)

 - Uncharted - 85,247 (3,358) (11,249 previews)

 - Free Guy - 80,479 (3,318) (8,348 previews)

 - Lost City - 81,686 (3,443) (9,790 previews)

 

Back on the Strip - 11,138 (1,265)

 - Call Jane - 12,049 (972)

 - Spencer - 11,579 (840)

 - Father Stu: Reborn - 11,346 (941)

 

Gran Turismo EA - 3,421 (850 TC)

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Gran Turismo - 28,544 (2,033 TC)*

 

*Can't really comp since Sunday shows aren't up yet

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Equalizer 2 - 8,619 (1,860 TC)

 - Nope - 8,442 (2,194)

 - John Wick 4 - 9,400 (2,382)

 - Blue Beetle - 7,943 (1,726)

 - Bullet Train - 8,244 (1,877)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Gran Turismo	3,130	66,794		54,459		12,335	2,345	0
Barbie	3,089	47,693	-13.38%	46,792	381.96	901	0	0
Blue Beetle	3,135	46,231	-32.21%	43,370	303.79	2,861	792	0
Strays	2,789	37,762	-15.85%	37,738	158.30	24	0	0
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem	2,638	33,493	-18.76%	30,982	207.12	2,511	0	2,349
Retribution	1,705	26,853		26,843		10	0	0
Oppenheimer	2,399	25,553	-14.43%	24,215	359.18	1,338	1,249	0
Meg 2: The Trench	2,382	24,272	-28.34%	22,123	199.77	2,149	0	2,139
The Hill	1,500	20,410		20,410		0	0	0
Golda	794	12,520		12,520		0	0	0
Haunted Mansion	1,379	10,782	-45.98%	10,703	151.66	79	0	0
Jurassic Park - 30th Anniversary in 3D	1,183	9,791		0		9,791	0	9,791
Sound of Freedom	1,293	9,373	-38.49%	9,362	170.68	11	0	0
Talk to Me	1,168	9,040	-38.47%	9,035	215.00	5	0	0
The Little Mermaid	1,427	8,310		8,305		5	0	0
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One	1,457	8,240	-24.84%	8,207	249.68	33	0	0
The Super Mario Bros. Movie	1,335	8,224		8,154		70	0	58
The Last Voyage of the Demeter	1,234	5,311	-80.99%	5,308	89.64	3	0	0
American Graffiti 50th Anniversary	703	1,111		1,111		0	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

Gran Turismo - 66,794 (3,130 TC) (11,320 previews)

 - Meg 2 - 67,894 (2,826) (11,451)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241) (5,793)

 - Snake Eyes - 64,832 (3,008) (6,018)

 

Retribution - 26,853 (1,705 TC) (2,477 previews)

 - Stillwater - 28,558 (2,337) (3,012)

 - Bones and All - 28,849 (2,409)

 - King's Daughter - 26,174 (1,987) (2,992)

 

The Hill - 20,410 (1,500 TC) (2,337 previews)

 - Journal for Jordan - 19,572 (2,055) (4,116)

 - Amazing Maurice - 17,980 (1,672) (2,253)

 - Christmas with Chosen - 18,800 (1,556)

 - Infinite Storm - 19,579 (1,481) (1,669)

 

Golda - 12,520 (794 TC) (1,860 previews)*

 - Spencer (11,579 (840) (1,436)

 - Wolf and the Lamb - 12,069 (938) (938)

 - Mrs. Harris - 13,334 (935) (1,350)

 - The Good House - 12,607 (987) (1,060)

 - Jules - 12,726 (752) (1,842)

 

*Missed pulling EA shows

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Equalizer 2 - 52,325 (2,325 TC) (9,723 previews)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672) (8,420)

 - Bullet Train - 53,866 (2,579) (10,336)

 - Creed III - 48,260 (5,790)

 - Nope - 52,246 (2,594) (9,683)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 3,362 (1,489 TC)

 - Father Stu - 3,134 (1,400)

 - Otto - 3,582 (1,324)

 - Dog - 3,104 (1,383)

 

Jawan - 1,778 (410 TC)

 - RRR - 2,050 (526)

Edited August 25, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Add Big Greek Wedding & Fixed PLF

[el sid]

Exact presale numbers later but I can already say that I have to lift my weekend prediction for Gran Turismo. Yesterday my guess was 15M because of its Thursday and Friday presales but I didn't price in the National Cinema Sunday enough.
Due to the post of @across the Jat verse I had a short look at the Sunday of GT in my theaters and it looks way better than the Friday. I mean I expected better numbers than on Friday but not so much better.

Edited August 25, 2023 by el sid

[VanillaSkies]

Bottoms appears to be doing quite well in its limited release in 10 theatres. It was selling out shows left and right last night and sales are brisk for the rest of the weekend. 
 

with 99% critic score on RT, this could build nicely into September. Who would have thought platforming an R rated comedy would be a good strategy, but it appears it might work here. Had they gone full wide release this weekend without most people knowing what the film is, it would have done decent numbers but have been quickly forgotten. With this strategy it’s starting to build quite a bit of buzz on social media that should propel it in the weeks ahead. Expanding a little on the long weekend next weekend will certainly help.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/24/2023 at 8:25 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-7	Jax	5	46	12	83	8,308	1.00%
		Phx	6	32	11	69	6,700	1.03%
		Ral	7	37	3	69	5,967	1.16%
	Total		18	115	26	221	20,975	1.05%

 

Equalizer 3 T-7 comps 

 - John Wick 4 - missed

 - Matrix 4 - .14x (894k)

 - F9 - .229x (1.63m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .619x (2.85m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.07x (2.99m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - 1.02x (3.07m)

 - Creed III - .514x (2.8m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 2.89m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-6	Jax	5	46	15	98	8,308	1.18%
		Phx	6	32	6	75	6,700	1.12%
		Ral	7	37	10	79	5,967	1.32%
	Total		18	115	31	252	20,975	1.20%

 

Equalizer 3 T-6 comps 

 - John Wick 4 - missed

 - Matrix 4 - .149x (951k)

 - F9 - .242x (1.72m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .585x (2.69m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.97x (2.85m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - 1.06x (3.19m)

 - Creed III - .505x (2.75m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 2.86m

[filmlover]

I've actually seen some ads for Bottoms, seems like it's getting a decent-sized push. It looks like something that would heavily appeal to the A24 crowd.

[Hilts]

43 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX
Gran Turismo	3,130	66,794		54,459		2,345	0
Barbie	3,089	47,693	-13.38%	46,792	381.96	0	0
Blue Beetle	3,135	46,231	-32.21%	43,370	303.79	792	0
Strays	2,789	37,762	-15.85%	37,738	158.30	0	0
Ninja Turtles	2,638	33,493	-18.76%	30,982	207.12	0	2,349
Retribution	1,705	26,853		26,843		0	0
Oppenheimer	2,399	25,553	-14.43%	24,215	359.18	1,249	0
Meg 2	2,382	24,272	-28.34%	22,123	199.77	0	2,139
The Hill	1,500	20,410		20,410		0	0
Golda	794	12,520		12,520		0	0
Haunted Mansion	1,379	10,782	-45.98%	10,703	151.66	0	0
Jurassic Park 3D	1,183	9,791		0		0	9,791
Sound of Freedom	1,293	9,373	-38.49%	9,362	170.68	0	0
Talk to Me	1,168	9,040	-38.47%	9,035	215.00	0	0
The Little Mermaid	1,427	8,310		8,305		0	0
Mission: Impossible 7	1,457	8,240	-24.84%	8,207	249.68	0	0
Super Mario	1,335	8,224		8,154		0	58
The Last Voyage	1,234	5,311	-80.99%	5,308	89.64	0	0
American Graffiti 50th	703	1,111		1,111		0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

Gran Turismo - 66,794 (3,130 TC) (11,320 previews)

 - Meg 2 - 67,894 (2,826) (11,451)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241) (5,793)

 - Snake Eyes - 64,832 (3,008) (6,018)

 

Retribution - 26,853 (1,705 TC) (2,477 previews)

 - Stillwater - 28,558 (2,337) (3,012)

 - Bones and All - 28,849 (2,409)

 - King's Daughter - 26,174 (1,987) (2,992)

 

The Hill - 20,410 (1,500 TC) (2,337 previews)

 - Journal for Jordan - 19,572 (2,055) (4,116)

 - Amazing Maurice - 17,980 (1,672) (2,253)

 - Christmas with Chosen - 18,800 (1,556)

 - Infinite Storm - 19,579 (1,481) (1,669)

 

Golda - 12,520 (794 TC) (1,860 previews)*

 - Spencer (11,579 (840) (1,436)

 - Wolf and the Lamb - 12,069 (938) (938)

 - Mrs. Harris - 13,334 (935) (1,350)

 - The Good House - 12,607 (987) (1,060)

 - Jules - 12,726 (752) (1,842)

 

*Missed pulling EA shows

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Equalizer 2 - 52,325 (2,325 TC) (9,723 previews)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672) (8,420)

 - Bullet Train - 53,866 (2,579) (10,336)

 - Creed III - 48,260 (5,790)

 - Nope - 52,246 (2,594) (9,683)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 3,362 (1,489 TC)

 - Father Stu - 3,134 (1,400)

 - Otto - 3,582 (1,324)

 - Dog - 3,104 (1,383)

 

Jawan - 1,778 (410 TC)

 - RRR - 2,050 (526)

 

The effort to do this each week must be insane, if it hasn't been said already then it's very much appreciated. Just wondered if there was an issue with the PLF/IMAX columns, looks like maybe IMAX is showing the 3D numbers and PLF is showing the IMAX numbers, with total PLF missing?

 

That is a horrific showtime drop for The Last Voyage, but not a shock 😉

[katnisscinnaplex]

5 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

The effort to do this each week must be insane, if it hasn't been said already then it's very much appreciated. Just wondered if there was an issue with the PLF/IMAX columns, looks like maybe IMAX is showing the 3D numbers and PLF is showing the IMAX numbers, with total PLF missing?

 

That is a horrific showtime drop for The Last Voyage, but not a shock 😉

Thanks!  Yes, that's what happened.  I'll update the post.  Thanks for letting me know!

[Shawn Robbins]

$1.4M Gran Turismo Thursday

 

Sneaks will be rolled into Friday, is what I'm told.

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/20/2023 at 9:48 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: (numbers taken at around 4 PM CST as usual)

 

Gran Turismo (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	60	30	73	11644	0.68

 

Comps:

0.31x Blue Beetle- $1.02 Million

0.38x Haunted Mansion (just Thursday)- $1.17 Million

 

Not great but it's all about these last few days, interested to see if good WOM from the EA shows shows up in these sales.

 

The Equalizer (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	75	59	59	13946	0.42

 

I don't have great comps for this, but I tracked The Woman King last year and I think it might be a decent comp at that point of time (T-4 on). Don't really wanna compare this with the huge summer blockbusters

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews (Numbers taken yesterday)

 

The Equalizer (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	80	35	94	14734	0.64

 

I'll have The Woman King comp on Sunday, best I can do (haven't tracked R-rated action movies). From the looks of it I think it'll point to around $2 million but we shall see.

 

Big Fat Greek Wedding (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	26	5	5	2808	0.18

 

I'll start comping with Joy Ride and Strays on Sunday, but damn if this isn't looking like yet another single-digits comedy opener.

 

Apologies for the day late update, (super fun but very late) school event last night!

[The Wild Eric]

Quorum Updates

Bottoms T-8: 15.34% Awareness

The Nun II T-15: 48.17% Awareness

Expend4bles T-29: 36.25% Awareness

Dumb Money T-43: 14.88% Awareness

Killers of the Flower Moon T-57: 22.32% Awareness

Five Nights at Freddy's T-64: 34.02% Awareness

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-118: 48.63% Awareness

 

Gran Turismo T-1: 38.05% Awareness

Final Awareness: 32% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 73% chance of 10M, 64% chance of 20M, 54% chance of 30M

 

The Hill T-1: 23.9% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Retribution T-1: 35.06% Awareness

Final Awareness: 32% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

[ChipDerby]

Aquaman baby!

[MovieMan89]

14 hours ago, filmlover said:

This is what November looks like now:

 

11/3: nada

11/10: The Marvels, Journey to Bethlehem, The Holdovers (wide expansion)

11/17: Hunger Games, Trolls, Thanksgiving, Next Goal Wins

11/22: Wish, Napoleon

 

Honestly, if something moved to that now empty first weekend, this would look like a very well-balanced month.

Honestly, it’s way too crowded even still when you consider how barren things could start looking after this year… get Hunger Games out of there. Flop waiting to happen, but it might have a very small chance if it moves somewhere where it has the cal mostly to itself and if it’s any good. 

Edited August 25, 2023 by MovieMan89

[el sid]

Gran Turismo counted today for Sunday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 474 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 239 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 29 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 37 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 19 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 230 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 314 (8 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.342.

For comparison, GT had on Thursday for Friday 301 sold tickets = x4.45 plus 1 day left.
Of course GTwon't get 4-5x the money of the true Friday but the multi should still be good.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/24/2023 at 2:19 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

(0.205x) of Fast X

~$1.54M THUR Previews

 

(0.174x) of RoTB

~$1.53M THUR Previews

 

(0.414x) of Blue Beetle

~$1.37M THUR Previews

 

(0.734x) of Meg 2

~$2.35M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.70M

 

Officially going with $1.7M Thursdays previews. My range would be $1.5M-$1.7M 

  

4 hours ago, Shawn said:

$1.4M Gran Turismo Thursday

 

Sneaks will be rolled into Friday, is what I'm told.

 

So close, yet so far

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/21/2023 at 5:06 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Early US showtime sample for Sunday:

 

Gran Turismo: 9,597 (1,425 TC)

Barbie: 6,722 (1,179 TC)

Blue Beetle: 6,146 (1,189 TC)

Strays: 5,500 (1,103 TC)

Ninja Turtles: 4,715 (971 TC)

Retribution: 3,607 (719 TC)

Oppenheimer: 3,604 (912 TC)

Meg 2: The Trench: 2,588 (616 TC)

The Hill: 2,547 (589 TC)

Golda: 2,013 (429 TC)

Jurassic Park 3D: 1,213 (554 TC)

American Graffiti 50th: 935 (580 TC)

Haunted Mansion: 523 (191 TC)

Sound of Freedom: 504 (188 TC)

M:I7: 440 (278 TC)

Mario Bros: 370 (202 TC)

The Little Mermaid: 356 (160 TC)

Last Voyage: 325 (158 TC)

Talk to Me: 253 (113 TC)

 

Still early, but should give an idea of the breakdown.  I'll try to remember to break these out on Friday.

Cinema Day US Showtimes Sample

 

Barbie: 16,991 (3,170 TC)

Gran Turismo: 16,263 (3,211 TC)

Blue Beetle: 15,130 (3,290 TC)

Strays: 13,110 (2,859 TC)

Ninja Turtles: 12,057 (2,731 TC)

Oppenheimer: 9,105 (2,499 TC)

Meg 2: 8,343 (2,413 TC)

Retribution: 8,305 (1,707 TC)

The Hill: 6,106 (1,508 TC)

Haunted Mansion: 3,737 (1,409 TC)

Golda: 3,589 (800 TC)

Sound of Freedom: 3,249 (1,301 TC)

The Little Mermaid: 3,038 (1,444 TC)

Super Mario: 3,004 (1,343 TC)

Talk to Me: 2,982 (1,157 TC)

Mission: Impossible: 2,797 (1,466 TC)

Jurassic Park 3D: 2,659 (1,159 TC)

The Last Voyage: 1,758 (1,198 TC)

American Graffiti: 1,109 (705 TC)

 

*Not all theaters are accounted for

[Giorno]

https://deadline.com/2023/08/national-cinema-day-2023-admissions-update-1235528386/