The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (Day 4 PS) - 478379/728046 10106708.31 4231 shows +11239

 

Terrific day for sure. its above 10m as well 🙂

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T - 39) - 484713/740701 10243907.57 4324 shows +6334

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

53 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

There are many more swifties than the capacity. This is not even marketed that much. If Swift decides to push really hard i am expecting this to keep going up. While it will be presale heavy(DUH), ceiling is still very high. Let us wait closer to release to see how big the demand is.

I was saying more in general not just this specifically.

Like if a MCU film like Ant man has big PS start but quorum is low, is possibly it will be more fan heavy, hence lower walkups.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-40 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	131	11191	17736	6545	36.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

174

 

Day 4 Comps:    [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE IN COMPS]

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	41.48		511	15779		0/298	20647/36426	43.32%		28183	23.22%		20.74m
MoM	80.73		285	8107		0/329	32809/40916	19.81%		21117	30.99%		29.06m
Thor 4	123.70		231	5291		0/228	26309/31600	16.74%		16962	38.59%		35.87m
BP2	155.46		193	4210		0/294	32812/37022	11.37%		16800	38.96%		43.53m
AM3	199.24		227	3285		0/231	29080/32365	10.15%		10475	62.48%		34.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1989/6150  [32.34% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

72.84% of Avatar 2's final total           [12.38m]

141.63% of Oppenheimer's final total [14.87m]

54.19% of Barbie's final total               [12.09m]

 

===

 

Last day of "day x" comps.  Not sure what I'll do the next couple of days. Might go dark on comps, might do percentage of final gross at choice large movies.  See how I feel tomorrow.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-39 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	133	11521	18246	6725	36.86%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	510
Total Seats Sold Today	180

 

(SOME COMPS RETURNING SOON-ISH)

 

Regal:     2028/6150  [32.98% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

23.86% of No Way Home's final total      [11.93m]

31.85% of Doctor Strange 2's final total [11.46m]

40.03% of Black Panther 2's final total.  [11.21m]

74.84% of Avatar 2's final total                [12.72m]

145.53% of Oppenheimer's final total     [15.28m]

55.68% of Barbie's final total                  [12.42m]

Edited September 5, 2023 by Porthos

[vale9001]

the film has been launched 4 days ago with just a trailer on social media. What do you expect from "how much you heard about it".

 

when people say "i heard about a dune new movie" more than trailers it's like years of news about the movie, the cast etc...

 

of course at some point the promo will be pushed on traditional media too. But it's soon, they will make in in october. No reason to start 45 days before like you have to sell a 250M blockbuster with 100M on marketing, and not a 15M budgeted movie 😅

Edited September 5, 2023 by vale9001

[vafrow]

On 9/3/2023 at 7:32 PM, vafrow said:

 

The Nun 2, Thursday previews T-4, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  189

New Sales: 102

Growth from Friday morning: 117%

Theatre Count:  48

Showtimes:  115

Tickets per showtime: 1.643

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Comps

0.616x Equalizer 3 for $2.3M

0.383x Blue Beetle for $1.3M

 

Sales grow at a decent pace. Further behind the comps, but, given that sales only opened at T-9, I think it can continue to build. I haven't tracked a lot of horror though, so hard to get a feel on the patterns in market.

 

The Nun 2, Thursday previews T-3, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  277

New Sales: 88

Growth from Sunday evening: 47%

Theatre Count:  48

Showtimes:  115

Tickets per showtime: 2.409

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Comps

0.642x Equalizer 3 for $2.4M

0.473x Blue Beetle for $1.6M

 

It continues to edge up against comps.

[Willowra]

8 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

Yeah Quorum is useless for fan driven films like MCU and even higher degree Era tour. However, wonder if we can use this for sense of whether something will be presales heavy or do well with GA too. @keysersoze123 @Legion Again

I don't know about other genres, but quorum is useful for comparing MCU movies. For example, GOTG3's final awareness and interest were higher than Ant-Man 3, and the final metrics had been reflected in the box office. The Marvels' interest is less than Ant-Man 3 at Quourum, but it has slightly higher awareness (at the same point of release), so its box office could come at a similar level as Ant-Man 3.

[Veclozy]

3 minutes ago, Willowra said:

I don't know about other genres, but quorum is useful for comparing MCU movies. For example, GOTG3's final awareness and interest were higher than Ant-Man 3, and the final metrics had been reflected in the box office. The Marvels' interest is less than Ant-Man 3 at Quourum, but it has slightly higher awareness (at the same point of release), so its box office could come at a similar level as Ant-Man 3.

So, it's not useful then because Quantumania had higher Thursday previews and would have opened bigger than GOTG3 with good word of mouth/reviews.

[Willowra]

17 minutes ago, Veclozy said:

So, it's not useful then because Quantumania had higher Thursday previews and would have opened bigger than GOTG3 with good word of mouth/reviews.

But it's overall awareness & interest was less than GOTG3, and so it wouldn't have made more than GOTG3 even with a bigger OW.

[JustLurking]

23 minutes ago, Willowra said:

But it's overall awareness & interest was less than GOTG3, and so it wouldn't have made more than GOTG3 even with a bigger OW.

...you don't think the huge difference in reception played a bit more of a part than the "difference in awareness & interest" on quorum?

[Willowra]

17 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

...you don't think the huge difference in reception played a bit more of a part than the "difference in awareness & interest" on quorum?

If Ant-Man 3 had received better, how much do you think it would have grossed at the box office? I don't think it would have crossed $300m even with the good reception.

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Willowra said:

I don't know about other genres, but quorum is useful for comparing MCU movies. For example, GOTG3's final awareness and interest were higher than Ant-Man 3, and the final metrics had been reflected in the box office. The Marvels' interest is less than Ant-Man 3 at Quourum, but it has slightly higher awareness (at the same point of release), so its box office could come at a similar level as Ant-Man 3.

 

Quorum tends not to be useful for out of nowhere movies from small studios...but not much is.

 

So, Sound of Freedom and Taylor Swift were complete misses, at least at their start (since SoF wasn't known til it already had $10M presales and Taylor apparently still isn't known with, what, $40M+ completed sales?).

 

I, too, find its biggest use for fan series sequels.  That seems like the area where it shines.

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, Willowra said:

If Ant-Man 3 had received better, how much do you think it would have grossed at the box office? I don't think it would have crossed $300m even with the good reception.

It's not exactly ludicrous to state that an antman 3 that isn't received like shit opens to 120 and does 2.5x so yes it crosses 300M

 

your arguments are really bizarre

[Veclozy]

1 hour ago, Willowra said:

But it's overall awareness & interest was less than GOTG3, and so it wouldn't have made more than GOTG3 even with a bigger OW.

It's all up to the word of mouth after the opening, with similar reception to GOTG3, it would have made more than GOTG3. When it comes to hype and anticipation, Quantumania had the edge. Do you actually think Quorum is a good measurement for box office legs?

[Willowra]

19 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

It's not exactly ludicrous to state that an antman 3 that isn't received like shit opens to 120 and does 2.5x so yes it crosses 300M

 

your arguments are really bizarre

There was a 10–20% difference in the final Quorum awareness and interest of GOTG3 and Ant-Man3, and that was reflected in the box office, but since Ant-Man3's reception wasn't good, it made just 214m instead of 280–295m. So there is nothing bizarre here.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

MODERATION 

There’s already a thread to discuss the merits of Quorum and this isn’t it so that will be the end of this conversation on the tracking thread.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/4/2023 at 8:21 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding	T-3	Jax	5	13	2	41	1,351	3.03%
		Phx	6	16	2	33	1,490	2.21%
		Ral	7	17	3	26	1,877	1.39%
	Total		18	46	7	100	4,718	2.12%
Nun II	T-3	Jax	5	38	2	75	5,218	1.44%
		Phx	5	19	26	116	3,256	3.56%
		Ral	8	36	9	59	5,093	1.16%
	Total		18	93	37	250	13,567	1.84%

 

Greek Wedding T-3 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - .448x (448k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .226x (287k)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .515x (567k)

 - Strays (Total) - .671x (738k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.563x (781k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .5x (365k)

 - No Hard Feelings (Total) - missed

 - Dog - 1.333x (1.68m)

 - Marry Me - 1.087x (571k)

 - West Side Story - .917x (734k)

 

Size adjusted average - 670k

 

Thinking in the 700k range

 

The Nun II T-3 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .772x (3.86m)

 - Smile (Total) - missed

 - Scream VI - .217x (1.24m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - missed

 - Candyman - 1.582x (3.01m)

 - Nope - .306x (1.96m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding	T-2	Jax	5	13	1	42	1,351	3.11%
		Phx	6	16	12	45	1,490	3.02%
		Ral	7	17	15	41	1,877	2.18%
	Total		18	46	28	128	4,718	2.71%
Nun II	T-2	Jax	6	39	14	89	5,259	1.69%
		Phx	5	19	19	135	3,256	4.15%
		Ral	8	36	34	93	5,093	1.83%
	Total		19	94	67	317	13,608	2.33%

 

Greek Wedding T-2 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - .476x (476k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .257x (326k)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .587x (646k)

 - Strays (Total) - .707x (778k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.422x (711k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .487x (355k)

 - No Hard Feelings (Total) - missed

 - Marry Me - 1.094x (574k)

 - West Side Story - .883x (706k)

 

Size adjusted average - 669k

 

Thinking in the 700k range still

 

The Nun II T-2 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .779x (3.89m)

 - Scream VI - .243x (1.38m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .708x (2.12m)

 - Candyman - 1.554x (2.95m)

 - Nope - .307x (1.97m)

 - Boogeyman (Total) - 2.217x (2.44m)

 - Halloween Kills - .285x (1.38m)

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 

Average adjusted comps - 2.5m

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/4/2023 at 8:23 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-39	Jax	6	64	36	3,955	10,330	38.29%
		Phx	6	67	120	7,282	11,445	63.63%
		Ral	8	67	119	4,602	8,755	52.56%
	Total		20	198	275	15,839	30,530	51.88%

 

Comps against T-1 hr sales

 - NWH - .457x (22.84m)

 - Dr Strange - .686x (24.71m)

 - BP2 - .896x (25.08m)

 - Thor 4 - .967x (28.05m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.645x (28.78m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-38	Jax	6	64	63	4,018	10,330	38.90%
		Phx	6	69	66	7,348	11,798	62.28%
		Ral	8	65	85	4,687	8,417	55.68%
	Total		20	198	214	16,053	30,545	52.56%

 

Comps against T-1 hr sales

 - NWH - .463x (23.14m)

 - Dr Strange - .696x (25.04m)

 - BP2 - .908x (25.42m)

 - Thor 4 - .98x (28.43m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.667x (29.17m)

 - Barbie - 1.407x (29.82m)

 

Pretty much sold another ticket per show today.  Lost a couple late shows with no sales and added a couple in other theaters to net zero change.  Expecting this to be the norm going forward unless a promo/something else causes a jump.  I've been saying that capacity will keep this from reaching some of the predictions out there.  Here's the final show count for previews for the comps above.

 

NWH: 475

Dr. Strange - 519

BP2 - 450

Thor 4 - 414

Ant-Man 3 - 358

Barbie - 285

 

While there is certainly room for more shows to be added, most of these started at 3 or 4pm and had much more room to add.  I don't think we'll get even close to the CBM show counts.  ATP will help counteract that some, but it'll be tough to fill all of the handicap and single seats that are still available out there for Friday.

[cowboylikeme]

How much has the pre-sale box office reached so far? 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

6 minutes ago, cowboylikeme said:

How much has the pre-sale box office reached so far? 

Everything in total? About $55-60M.

[filmlover]

Quote

 

Most Anticipated Fall Movies:

The Marvels (Nov. 10)

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Nov. 17)

The Equalizer 3 (Sept. 1)

A Haunting in Venice (Sept. 15)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Oct. 20)

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (Sept 😎

The Expendables 4 (Sept. 22)

The Exorcist: Believer (Oct. 6)

Saw X  (Sept. 29)

Five Nights at Freddy’s (Oct. 27)

 

‘Marvels’, ‘Hunger Games’ Prequel Most Want To See: Fandango Fall Poll – Deadline