The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

25-35K

I wish I had not asked the question. Unless Zack can still make it work, we will not know the answer. But we can extrapolate based on other data. 

[charlie Jatinder]

MiniTC2 MCU starts

 

Eternals - 1022

NWH - 29680

DSitMoM - 12133

Thor 4 - 6218

Wakanda - 4624

Ant Man - 4359 (30+ hours)

GoTG 3 - 2947

Spider Verse - 1580

 

Every Marvel title has dropped since NWH. Expect it to continue with Marvels. We are probably back to Eternals level, may be lower.

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I wish I had not asked the question. Unless Zack can still make it work, we will not know the answer. But we can extrapolate based on other data. 

Yeah I got you covered. We will have idea of it.

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

44 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

It had a nice initial burst, but has been on a downward trend for the past week (at least here) which isn't a great sign 

Sign for previews? Cause the comp average is still pretty good (I think if it can do 3 million on Thursday that’s pretty good). 
 

I don’t know much about this side of the business though. I am a little surprised you aren’t seeing more steam because I do see a ton of awareness, there is so much publicity now and its response has been rapturous. But maybe closer to the date people might finalize plans. Its a commitment. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Curiouser and Curiouser

[HummingLemon496]

@charlie Jatinder

 

Unrelated but how do you think Aquaman 2 is gonna track for the 5-day?

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

@charlie Jatinder

 

Unrelated but how do you think Aquaman 2 is gonna track for the 5-day?

I’m still amazed it’s actually coming out there has been almost no buzz or press for it. 

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

I’m still amazed it’s actually coming out there has been almost no buzz or press for it. 

Aquaman is going to rely on legs

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

@charlie Jatinder

 

Unrelated but how do you think Aquaman 2 is gonna track for the 5-day?

Expecting drop from Aquaman 1 overall. Need to see what sort of calendar configuration it has.

[keysersoze123]

I dont want this to turn into predictions thread, but I cannot see a scenario where Aquabro 2 does not drop big from last one. 

 

Its more exciting to see Freddy's looking like a huge breakout and let us see how the concert movies ultimately perform. We will have other surprise breakouts(I am hopeful on Wonka)

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

I dont want this to turn into predictions thread, but I cannot see a scenario where Aquabro 2 does not drop big from last one. 

 

Its more exciting to see Freddy's looking like a huge breakout and let us see how the concert movies ultimately perform. We will have other surprise breakouts(I am hopeful on Wonka)

Below $143m domestic is my longshot goal. Would require a Pets 1 --> Pets 2 but I think it could happen

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I wish I had not asked the question. Unless Zack can still make it work, we will not know the answer. But we can extrapolate based on other data. 

are you unable to track due to time or is your scraping method not functioning right now? 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

are you unable to track due to time or is your scraping method not functioning right now? 

its not working. 

[ChipDerby]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

MiniTC2 MCU starts

 

Eternals - 1022

NWH - 29680

DSitMoM - 12133

Thor 4 - 6218

Wakanda - 4624

Ant Man - 4359 (30+ hours)

GoTG 3 - 2947

Spider Verse - 1580

 

Every Marvel title has dropped since NWH. Expect it to continue with Marvels. We are probably back to Eternals level, may be lower.

 

*Tickets aren't even on sale yet*

"We're on an even lower level than Eternals, I say, with no reasoning whatsoever!"

[charlie Jatinder]

Five Nights at Freddy MiniTC2 T-18 Days

Previews - 3825/47496 (184 showings)
 

Comps
1.03x Barbie - $23M

2.61x Oppenheimer - $27M
1.07x Avatar 2 - $18M


LOL.

[HummingLemon496]

49 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

*Tickets aren't even on sale yet*

"We're on an even lower level than Eternals, I say, with no reasoning whatsoever!"

Lmao for real. "This is already the worst MCU opening ever we are doomed!!!!"

Edited October 10, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[emoviefan]

44 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Five Nights at Freddy MiniTC2 T-18 Days

Previews - 3825/47496 (184 showings)
 

Comps
1.03x Barbie - $23M

2.61x Oppenheimer - $27M
1.07x Avatar 2 - $18M


LOL.

Every time I see the sales figures for this I feel older and more out of touch with what is popular  anymore. Whatever I guess. Something has got to make money.

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Every time I see the sales figures for this I feel older and more out of touch with what is popular  anymore. Whatever I guess. Something has got to make money.

 

To keep this on topic, one of the things that potentially could hurt FNAF is the lack of a social media/review bounce.  AIUI reviews allegedly drop day of release and the same for social media reactions.  Note I said day of release as this looks to be after previews had already started for all of the US.

 

Setting aside the potential omens when it comes to quality (PLEASE, this ain't the thread to do it — REALLY!!!), that does mean that there will be a lack of a social media/review bounce that other films saw during their pre-sale runs.

 

Now it is true that every once in a while a film comes along that is legitimately critic proof as well has having its own self-sustaining viral marketing campaign.  Minions 2 and TikTok come to mind for the latter.

 

That being said, if these reports about when the review embargoes are being lifted are accurate, and from some ten minute checks on Twitter they appear to be, then that has a very strong potential to throw a wrench into comps when other films get their various boosts.

 

Just something to keep in mind when it comes to FNAF's pre-sale pattern.

 

(again, every once in a while a film comes along that just breaks normal patterns - just highlighting a very real potential pitfall that may be on the horizon)

 

NB:

 

This does appear to be releasing in some international territories (like the UK) a couple of days before release, so initial social media reactions from Regular Janes and Joes might move the needle a bit as it has for other movies in similar situations.  But that's still pretty darn late into the pre-sale run.

[Porthos]

On 10/9/2023 at 12:01 AM, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	101	13539	15048	1509	10.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

62

 

T-18 Comps:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Wick4	172.26		104	876		0/88	12454/13330	6.57%		5448	27.70%		15.33m
AtSV	89.71		81	1682		0/123	18234/19916	8.45%		9744	15.49%		15.57m
GOTG3	44.91		90	3360		0/206	26287/29647	11.33%		10750	14.04%		7.86m
Flash	149.41		34	1010		0/178	24138/25148	4.02%		5327	28.33%		14.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     391/3078  [12.70% sold]
Matinee:    149/926  [16.09% | 9.87% of all tickets sold]

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	101	13445	15048	1603	10.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

94

 

T-17 Comps:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Wick4	165.43		93	969		0/88	12361/13330	7.27%		5448	29.42%		14.72m
AtSV	92.02		60	1742		0/123	18177/19919	8.75%		9744	16.45%		15.97m
GOTG3	46.69		73	3433		0/206	26211/29644	11.58%		10750	14.91%		8.17m
Flash	148.15		72	1082		0/178	24066/25148	4.30%		5327	30.09%		14.37m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     400/3078  [13.00% sold]
Matinee:    156/926  [16.85% | 9.73% of all tickets sold]

Edited October 10, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 10/9/2023 at 12:02 AM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	154	11185	20003	8818	44.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

72

 

T-5 Comps:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	44.65		515	19748		1/325	19372/39120	50.48%		28183	31.29%		22.33m	32.37m
MoM	65.28		446	13509		0/353	29171/42680	31.65%		21117	41.76%		23.50m	34.07m
Thor 4	98.32		302	8969		0/251	24732/33701	26.61%		16962	51.99%		28.51m	41.34m
BP2	92.66		412	9516		2/307	28444/37960	25.07%		16800	52.49%		25.95m	37.62m
AM3	139.72		127	6311		0/249	27315/33626	18.77%		10475	84.18%		24.45m	35.46m
GOTG3	169.15		265	5213		0/226	26601/31814	16.39%		10750	82.03%		29.60m	42.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-5 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	155.99		251	5653		0/297	31137/36790	15.37%		11757	75.00%
JWD	190.91		449	4619		0/224	23313/27932	16.54%		10966	80.41%
Ava 2	188.18		296	4686		0/198	22541/27227	17.21%		8986	98.13%
AtSV	246.80		278	3573		0/142	18901/22474	15.90%		9744	90.50%
Barbie	174.96		470	5040		1/180	16708/21748	23.17%		12077	73.01%
Oppy	400.64		130	2201		0/77	8355/10556	20.85%		4621	190.82%
Barben	121.78		600	7241		1/257	25063/32304	22.42%		16698	52.81%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2439/6150  [39.66% sold]

 

====

 

Ooooof.

 

Only real silver lining I might be able to point to is that not many new showtimes have gone up recently which is one of the things that juice sales starting Sunday night week-of.  The desirable showtimes/theaters are just packed solid. 

 

The only other thing I might be able to point to, which is perhaps is related to the showtimes, is the Friday release throwing a tiny monkey wrench into all of these Thursday comps.  I don't know when theaters are planning on expanding their Friday slates (as opposed to expanding their Thursday ones).  Plus buying habits might be slightly different for a Friday Night Movie versus an Thursday Night/Afternoon one.

 

But even so.... "Oooof".

 

(also timing cuts both ways, as all of these comps are Saturday comps, which is a traditionally slower day for pre-sales, for whatever reason)

((still don't know what is gonna happen, mind, if/when more showtimes are added, but as omens go, I've seen better))

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	176	13472	22408	8936	39.88%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	22
Total Net Seats Added Today	2405
Total Seats Sold Today	118

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	43.54		774	20522		1/325	18598/39120	52.46%		28183	31.71%		21.77m	31.57m
MoM	62.26		844	14353		0/353	28327/42680	33.63%		21117	42.32%		22.41m	32.50m
Thor 4	93.48		590	9559		0/251	24142/33701	28.36%		16962	52.68%		27.11m	39.31m
BP2	88.18		618	10134		2/308	27930/38064	26.62%		16800	53.19%		24.69m	35.80m
AM3	135.11		303	6614		0/251	27082/33696	19.63%		10475	85.31%		23.64m	34.28m
GOTG3	156.25		506	5719		0/227	26231/31950	17.90%		10750	83.13%		27.34m	39.65m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-4 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	148.41		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	76.01%
JWD	169.63		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	81.49%
Ava 2	175.42		408	5094		0/204	22706/27800	18.32%		8986	99.44%
AtSV	226.63		370	3943		0/142	18531/22474	17.54%		9744	91.71%
Barbie	157.74		625	5665		1/180	16083/21748	26.05%		12077	73.99%
Oppy	363.25		259	2460		0/77	8096/10556	23.30%		4621	193.38%
Barben	109.98		884	8125		1/257	24179/32304	25.15%		16698	53.52%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2480/7601  [32.63% sold]

 

====

 

Expanded (final?) sets went up at about half the theaters in the region, so now we'll see if there is any real movement or not.  Plus seeing if any of the other theaters also update their slates in the next couple of days.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Porthos

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Five Nights at Freddy MiniTC2 T-18 Days

Previews - 3825/47496 (184 showings)
 

Comps
1.03x Barbie - $23M

2.61x Oppenheimer - $27M
1.07x Avatar 2 - $18M


LOL.

Lol FNAF money will just be going straight towards paying off those Exorcist rights.