The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon496]

TS over or under Joker 96 mil ow?

[grim22]

27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Speaking of which, a DOUBLE SECRET (PROBATION) TRANSMISSION from Sacramento for all you peeps out there...

 

At T-9 (last night)

KOTM = .70356x Nope at T-9 [4.5m]

 

King of the Monsters is being re-released?

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, grim22 said:

King of the Monsters is being re-released?

 

Thanks for the catch; fixing.

[TheFlatLannister]

19 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

TS over or under Joker 96 mil ow?

5+35+40+25

So over I would guess 

[charlie Jatinder]

I can see something like

10
30
32
23 // 96

Edited October 12, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Around 300 tix sold for THU in MiniTC2 in 2 hours. $10M will probably need 10K tix. Not impossible.

Edited October 12, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[HummingLemon496]

Once I typed "Taylor Swift sub $100m" as a joke but now that actually might happen. 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Century Arden put up 14 showtimes for tomorrow almost immediately, including the XD screen.  I fully expect 100+ showtimes in the region for Thursday.  Maybe 150+.  Cinema West locations and Studio Movie Grill might be SOL (or not have time to scramble) due to being smaller chains.  But the Cinemarks and Regals?  For most of them, I'm expecting Damn the Torpedoes.

 

Speaking of Century Arden, Arden also already added eight showtimes between 2pm and 6pm for Friday.   So have a handful of others.

Yes. It is bigger than what I thought earlier. That said its still smaller than Friday show count. I anecdotally looked at biggest theaters and there is nothing crazy. Lincoln Sq Imax has 1 show at 10PM and that has sold 131 out of 480. Empire 25 nothing great. I am sure there will be some theaters doing very well but its really late to add a new date. I am not convinced its worth 10m. We will know if they release preview numbers on Friday.  

[BadOlCatSylvester]

This truly shows how bad the rest of the slate for this year is, to the point where they have to add an additional day to Eras's run since aside from maybe Freddy's, that is the last truly big movie of the year. And it'll likely get even worse now that the SAG negotiations failed.

Edited October 12, 2023 by BadOlCatSylvester

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Cinemark seems to be going full fledge previews on THU.

but not scalable to get realtime data :-( That was long ago when we could get data quickly. Anyway you will know at least later what it did on thursday at bigger TC. 

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

This truly shows how bad the rest of the slate for this year is, to the point where they have to add an additional day to Eras's run since aside from maybe Freddy's, that is the last truly big movie of the year. And it'll likely get even worse now that the SAG negotiations failed.

No, Aquaman 2 still exists

Edited October 12, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/10/2023 at 10:46 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-30, ~13 hours after start of sales, count taken 10-10:30 PM CST):

Day: T-30	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	97	459	459	16057	2.86

 

Comps:

2.32x Five Nights at Freddy's Day 1 sales (that was taken at 6 PM, not the best comparison)

0.079x Taylor Swift Eras Tour Day 1 sales (LOL)

 

Was expecting way better from the first MCU movie I am tracking, personally. Not super far off @TheFlatLannister's occupancy rate number (3.2%), and for these bigger releases I am usually not super far off him and katniss, which indicates our markets are behaving somewhat similarly. I will add comps as they make sense (Oppenheimer at T-28; FNAF at T-21; Indiana Jones at T-14; maybe Barbie at around T-21, though that will be especially skewed because of how backloaded it was).

 

Again, not the best comps, but I am just excited to be tracking my first MCU title! Even on these days where it seems I have to take a deep breath every time I see an *interesting* take, I am still grateful to be part of this community. It's something I look forward to checking on, and sometimes contributing to, every day. So thank you for letting me be a part of it! (ok, cheesiness is done, let's go back to our hot takes)

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-29, day 2, count taken 10:30-11 PM CST):

Day: T-29	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	103	31	490	17152	2.86

 

Tomorrow I will have an Oppy comp, a bit useless right away but it should help in seeing growth for this. While I don't have comps for this, only 31 tix sold in day 2 seems pretty terrible.

 

As for Taylor:

 

Thursday shows: 51 showings in 16 theaters (I track 20)

 

Friday shows: 2 PM- 6 PM, 31 showings so far (176 in my earlier count for 6 PM onwards).

 

A few thoughts:

- I was actually going to be able to do a T-1 hour count for Friday for the first time in a while... but that is NOT happening anymore

- I also am unable to get a count in for tomorrow's shows I realized, so I am no help there

- A few theaters have scheduled a showing right away for 2 PM but nothing else; I think this announcement has them scrambling and I will not be surprised if they add many more shows for Friday, this is just so last minute

- Tomorrow I will give my T-1 report and final comps with growth rates, and I will include those earlier Friday shows of course. Those growth rate comps will be something else.

 

[keysersoze123]

I was expecting Marvels D2 to be terrible but this latest Eras headline definitely is not helping evening sales. it has taken all the buzz out of Marvels. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

how is Flower Moon holding

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

how is Flower Moon holding

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Speaking of which, a DOUBLE SECRET (PROBATION) TRANSMISSION from Sacramento for all you peeps out there...

 

At T-9 (last night)

KOTFM = .70356x Nope at T-9 [4.5m]

 

 

Mind, this is about when Nope started to accelerate so it's absolutely no guarantee that this sort of comp would hold.

 

(also: beware one comp in one market)

((doubly beware a comp where I haven't been giving comps to it prior))

[keysersoze123]

@katnisscinnaplex is it possible for you to pull Thursday and weekend show counts for Eras Tour. Just to get a feel of how big the allocation for the weekend. 

[Porthos]

Sooooo.

 

Revised Thursday sets are up for every theater except one.

 

...

 

In summary? For pretty much all showtimes not named TET post 6pm???

 

 

 

(***156 showtimes now up for THURSDAY in the Greater Sacto Region***)

((a couple of theaters might yet still expand))

Edited October 12, 2023 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Around 300 tix sold for THU in MiniTC2 in 2 hours. $10M will probably need 10K tix. Not impossible.

now
716/33738 (127 showings)

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Sooooo.

 

Revised Thursday sets are up for every theater except one.

 

...

 

In summary? For pretty much all showtimes not named TET post 6pm???

 

 

 

(***156 showtimes now up for THURSDAY in the Greater Sacto Region***)

((a couple of theaters might yet still expand))

 

 

(see y'all in about 60 - 70)

 

ETA:::  Or maybe 80-90. Had some things to work on and prettify up. 😉 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 10/11/2023 at 12:44 AM, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	102	13561	15271	1710	11.20%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	223
Total Seats Sold Today	107

 

T-16 Comps:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	217.01		59	788		0/146	21279/22067	3.57%		4494	38.05%		16.28m
Scrm6	323.25		39	529		0/68	7359/7888	6.71%		3134	54.56%		18.43m
Wick4	167.16		54	1023		0/88	12307/13330	7.67%		5448	31.39%		14.88m
AtSV	93.90		79	1821		0/123	18098/19919	9.14%		9744	17.55%		16.29m
GOTG3	49.17		45	3478		0/203	25617/29095	11.95%		10750	15.91%		8.60m
Flash	153.23		34	1116		0/178	24032/25148	4.44%		5327	32.10%		14.86m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     403/3078  [13.09% sold]
Matinee:    157/926  [16.95% | 9.18% of all tickets sold]

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	102	13476	15271	1795	11.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

85

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	210.43		65	853		0/146	21214/22067	3.87%		4494	39.94%		15.78m
Scrm6	289.52		91	620		0/68	7268/7888	7.86%		3134	57.28%		16.50m
Wick4	165.13		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	32.95%		14.70m
AtSV	94.87		71	1892		0/123	18027/19919	9.50%		9744	18.42%		16.46m
GOTG3	50.61		69	3547		0/203	25548/29095	12.19%		10750	16.70%		8.86m
Flash	154.48		46	1162		0/178	23986/25148	4.62%		5327	33.70%		14.98m
Barbie	99.01		160	1813		0/96	10799/12612	14.38%		12077	14.86%		22.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     411/3078  [13.35% sold]
Matinee:    162/926  [17.49% | 9.03% of all tickets sold]