The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

Wish looks worse than Elemental and that had garbage sales early on. That said there is still time. 

[Relevation]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wish looks worse than Elemental and that had garbage sales early on. That said there is still time. 

Well to be fair, Elemental’s preview number would still take Wish to a very respectable total given how Disney animation is suuuuuuuuuuuper backloaded when it comes to TUE preview to 5-day weekend IMs

 

If comping it gets you over $2M and considering how Disney didn’t bother telling anyone tickets were on sale, I’d consider that a good start

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night (FRI) Seat Report:

OPENING NIGHT (FRI) MID-DAY REPORT [11:30am - 12:15pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	309	26460	36239	9779	26.98%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Last Night	1
Total Showings Added Since Last Night	0
Total Seats Added Added Since Last Night	0
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	199

 

9.61554x TET Thur Previews (26.9m) (9779/1017)

*NOT* ADJUSTED FOR SMALLER PLF THR to FRI PERCENTAGES!!!

 

T-0 Mid-Day Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
TET Thr [12-12:20]	1219.33		321	802		0/155	18378/19180	4.18%		1017	961.55%

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

NOT WORTH IT ANY MORE COMPS, BUT KEEPING FOR POSSIBLE FINAL COMP TOTAL USAGE LATER TODAY:

 

T-0 Mid-Day Comp

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	34.70%		18.50m	26.83m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	46.31%		18.09m	26.23m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	57.65%		19.03m	27.59m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	58.21%		18.57m	26.92m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	93.36%		18.22m	26.42m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	90.97%		18.60m	26.97m

 

 

T-0 More Useless Mid-Day Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
Bats [11:30-12:35]	93.33		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	83.18%		20.16m	29.23m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	103.05		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	89.18%		18.55m	26.89m
Ava 2[11:30-12:15]	123.68		666	7907		0/310	27128/35035	22.57%		8986	108.82%		21.02m	30.49m
AtSV[11:40-12:15]	121.21		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	100.36%		21.03m	30.49m
Barb [11:30-12:40]	92.40		1130	10583		3/271	19233/29816	35.49%		12077	80.97%		20.61m	29.88m
Oppy[12:15-12:25]	240.03		367	4074		2/80	6785/10859	37.52%		4621	211.62%		25.20m	36.55m
Barbn[11:30-12:10]	66.72		1497	14657		5/351	26018/40675	36.03%		16698	58.56%		21.88m	31.73m

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2642/11774  [22.44% sold]

 

===

 

No walkups whatsoever.  And remember that 26.9m earned so far estimate is likely an high over-estimate thanks to PLF difference.

 

I have to audit my sheet to really make sure, but we tentatively might be looking at a 25m to 26m True Friday.  Really haven't had enough time to really dig into ATP PLF differences.

 

Luckily I have a few hours to think it over and run some maths, but practically no GA interest whatsoever.

 

============

 

EDITED IN CORRECTION ALSO POSTED BELOW:

 

 

Okay, I just noticed/remembered that due to it being more PLF heavy on Thur, I bumped up the ATP to 155% for Thursday previews instead of my initial 145%, and that nailed it almost exactly, especially on NWH.

 

But I think 155% is too high for Fri given the difference.

 

Mid-Day Comp Check 155% ATP DIFFERENCE:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	34.70%		18.50m	28.68m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	46.31%		18.09m	28.04m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	57.65%		19.03m	29.49m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	58.21%		18.57m	28.78m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	93.36%		18.22m	28.24m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	90.97%		18.60m	28.84m

 

Mid-Day Comp Check  150% ATP DIFFERENCE:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	34.70%		18.50m	27.75m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	46.31%		18.09m	27.13m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	57.65%		19.03m	28.54m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	58.21%		18.57m	27.85m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	93.36%		18.22m	27.33m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	90.97%		18.60m	27.91m

 

Mid-Day Comp Check  145% ATP DIFFERENCE (ORIGINAL):

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	37.01		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	34.70%		18.50m	26.83m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	50.25		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	46.31%		18.09m	27.13m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	65.60		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	57.65%		19.03m	28.54m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	66.31		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	58.21%		18.57m	27.85m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	104.12		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	93.36%		18.22m	27.33m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	106.31		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	90.97%		18.60m	27.91m

 

155% NHW at final call nailed it last night, but I think that percentage has to come down a bit.

 

EVEN a 155% ATP difference isn't suggesting a 30m True Friday though.

 

But I do think I have to bump up the Sacto range to 28m to 30m  as a gut check.  Will almost certainly go with 150% ATP at final in a few hours.

 

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night (FRI) Seat Report:

OPENING NIGHT (FRI) FINAL REPORT [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

(all showtimes before 5pm sampled at start of screening)

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	307	26048	36091	10043	27.83%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Mid-Day	2
Total Seats Removed  Since Mid-Day	148
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	264

 

T-0 Comp:

%

Sold Since Mid-Day

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

TET Thr [12-12:20]

987.51

215

1017

0/154

18105/19122

5.32%

1017

987.51%

27.65m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

@M37

I tried.

(that's using your PSM but in a different way)

 

Just not here in Sacramento.

 

FOR WHAT THEY'RE WORTH COMPS (Ad-hoc 155% ATP)

 

T-0 Comps, HISTORICAL RECORD KEEPING

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [3:00-4:30]	35.63		1758	28183		4/395	15229/43412	64.92%		28183	35.63%		17.82m	27.62m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	47.56		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		21117	47.56%		17.12m	26.54m
Thor4 [3:45-4:35]	59.21		2056	16962		0/320	23111/40073	42.33%		16962	59.21%		17.17m	26.61m
BP2 [3:45-4:35]	59.78		2053	16800		2/376	26426/43216	38.87%		16800	59.78%		16.74m	25.94m
AM3 [3:45-4:30]	95.88		1083	10475		0/307	26899/37374	28.03%		10475	95.88%		16.78m	26.01m
GOTG [3:45-4:30]	93.42		1551	10750		0/347	31169/41919	25.64%		10750	93.42%		16.35m	25.34m

 

T-0 More Useless HISTORICAL COMPS:

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
Bats [3:00-4:30]	85.42		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	85.42%		18.45m	28.60m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	91.58		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	91.58%		16.48m	25.55m
Ava2 [3:50-4:25]	111.76		1079	8986		0/310	26049/35035	25.65%		8986	111.76%		19.00m	29.45m
AtSV [3:50-4:20]	103.07		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	103.07%		17.88m	27.72m
Barb [3:50-4:30]	83.16		1494	12077		4/274	17904/29981	40.28%		12077	83.16%		18.54m	28.74m
Oppy[4:30-4:40]	217.33		547	4621		2/80	6238/10859	42.55%		4621	217.33%		22.82m	35.37m
Barbn[3:50-4:40]	60.14		2041	16698		6/354	24142/40840	40.89%		16698	60.14%		19.73m	30.58m

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2732/11626  [23.50% sold]

 

====

 

Thoughts incoming in about 10 to 20 minutes, as there are some points I want to make.

Edited October 14, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 8/31/2023 at 1:02 PM, Porthos said:

Now this is gonna legitimately sound insane, but bear with me a moment.

 

I think the best, most recent, comp from previews might be... Oppenheimer.

 

 

 

 

Quote

%

Sold Since Mid-Day

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Unadj  Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

Oppy[4:30-4:40]

217.33

547

4621

2/80

6238/10859

42.55%

4621

217.33%

22.82m

35.37m

 

OPPENHEIMER COMP: 35.37m

 

On 10/11/2023 at 5:30 PM, Porthos said:

 

 

 

 

(okay, thoughts incoming in about 15 MORE minutes )

 

 

 

Edited October 14, 2023 by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-39

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	155	26289	0.59%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(1.140x) of Ruby Gilman~$826k TUE Previews

(0.448x) of Elemental~$1.08M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $953k 

 

*Kind of forgot about this lol*

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Just not here in Sacramento.

 

Okay, REAL TALK TIME.

 

I've been having fun yucking it up today.  Really!   I'm taking the "L" here and moving on.  But, again Real Talk:

 

NO MODEL EVER IS 100 ACCURATE.

 

If someone is always right when it comes to sampling something, it's likely they're cheating in some respect.  Even the best of models or samples or random checks will spit outlier results.  And I don't claim to run a scientifically sound model here, "Dark Magic" jokes be damned. 😉 

 

But, as I've said in more discussions than I can count, OUTLIERS HAPPEN.

 

Hell, a good model ought to spit out an outlier now and again.  The trick is to learn from the mistakes, calibrate, and move on.

 

(again, Oppenheimer + 155% ATP gets me... Okay not 40m, but a hell of a lot closer)

 

So just is what it is.  Just wasn't here locally and not much I could have done about it.

 

And, yes, no "call" for TET True Friday out of Sacramento.  It would probably be pointing to 27.5m to 30.5m, but since that's almost certainly wrong, moving on to the next film.

 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Okay, REAL TALK TIME.

 

I've been having fun yucking it up today.  Really!   I'm taking the "L" here and moving on.  But, again Real Talk:

 

NO MODEL EVER IS 100 ACCURATE.

 

If someone is always right when it comes to sampling something, it's likely they're cheating in some respect.  Even the best of models or samples or random checks will spit outlier results.  And I don't claim to run a scientifically sound model here, "Dark Magic" jokes be damned. 😉 

 

But, as I've said in more discussions than I can count, OUTLIERS HAPPEN.

 

Hell, a good model ought to spit out an outlier now and again.  The trick is to learn from the mistakes, calibrate, and move on.

 

(again, Oppenheimer + 155% ATP gets me... Okay not 40m, but a hell of a lot closer)

 

So just is what it is.  Just wasn't here locally and not much I could have done about it.

 

And, yes, no "call" for TET True Friday out of Sacramento.  It would probably be pointing to 27.5m to 30.5m, but since that's almost certainly wrong, moving on to the next film.

 

 

You're right so often - it's a shock when you're not.

 

And now I find myself sitting in the seat where I kept telling Shawn to keep the $100M OW faith this week, regardless of what all the tracking was saying:).  Maybe I'm getting good at female focused movies, and not just supers and animated ones:)...expanding my lane a little.

 

Keep ignoring me on horror and adult dramas:).  I've got KOTFM at $30M or below, and I know I'm under Shawn...

Edited October 14, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

You're right so often - it's a shock when you're not.

 

❤️

 

(again though... in a strange way I'm almost happy to see an outlier like this as they really really really should happen every once in a while!!!)

[DisposedData]

Sacramento not a Swifty city confirmed. 

[M37]

22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

But, as I've said in more discussions than I can count, OUTLIERS HAPPEN.

 

Hell, a good model ought to spit out an outlier now and again.  The trick is to learn from the mistakes, calibrate, and move on.

::mumbles something unintelligible GOTG3::

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-39, 6 PM Day 1):

Day: T-39	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 11 theaters	48	7	7	5706	0.12

 

Mostly wanted to get into the habit of pulling Day 1 numbers, and set up my sheets for this. Initial seat numbers similar to Haunted Mansion and Paw Patrol in like for like theaters. No Disney fan rush for this one!

7 seats sold over 48 showings is so laughably bad lol

[abracadabra1998]

19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

❤️

 

(again though... in a strange way I'm almost happy to see an outlier like this as they really really really should happen every once in a while!!!)

 

To be honest, if there ever was a release to be a model outlier, this would certainly be it; last minute added previews AND change of date time, last week pace like nothing we have ever seen, a dearth of adequate comps... had you gotten this one right, I would start calling them Sacto prophecies instead of dark magic!

 

(Plus your analysis are still my favorite posts to read on these forums, so I hope you don't feel too down )

[abracadabra1998]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

7 seats sold over 48 showings is so laughably bad lol

 

Hey, it's a better ratio than Ruby Gilman, that had 3 seats sold over 30 showings at one point, don't knock it down too much!

 

(But I'm not too worried just yet, with Taylor Swift, The Marvels, FNAF, KOFM, heck even Beyonce sucking up all the oxygen in the room at the moment, I'm surprised they didn't push the start date a little closer to release)

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

7 seats sold over 48 showings is so laughably bad lol

 

There was literally no reason for 40 days of pre-sales or for it to be dropped in the middle of a TET 100m+ OW.

 

Just a bizarre decision, really. 

 

In the end, I don't think it really says  anything at all except that there was no pent up fan rush in general for this.  But we all knew that already.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

(Plus your analysis are still my favorite posts to read on these forums, so I hope you don't feel too down )

 

Can honestly say, with hand on my heart, I don't feel down at all!

 

 

"We all gotta go sometime", indeed. 👍

[keysersoze123]

I dont see this having a big OW. Elemental previews hit 2.4m I guess due to it being heart of summer with schools being off. I think wish may not hit half that number. But its not about previews and more about the 5 day weekend. It could still have bigger OW than Elemental. How ever beating Elemental domestic is not going to be easy. 

[keysersoze123]

42 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-39

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	155	26289	0.59%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(1.140x) of Ruby Gilman~$826k TUE Previews

(0.448x) of Elemental~$1.08M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $953k 

 

*Kind of forgot about this lol*

Its not bad but I am expecting most of the sales are from Disney Springs where it will over index big time. 

[abracadabra1998]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its not bad but I am expecting most of the sales are from Disney Springs where it will over index big time. 

 

I was literally about to ask, @TheFlatLannister what % of your tix sold so far is Disney Springs?

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

I was literally about to ask, @TheFlatLannister what % of your tix sold so far is Disney Springs?

Just to see how elemental finished for its previews

Disney Springs - 1208 tickets sold

Empire 25 -310

lincoln sq - 190

Metreon -286

Universal(near LA) -291

 

So it sold more tickets than 4 of the busiest other plexes combined :-)   

[TheFlatLannister]

9 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

I was literally about to ask, @TheFlatLannister what % of your tix sold so far is Disney Springs?

 

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its not bad but I am expecting most of the sales are from Disney Springs where it will over index big time. 

131 seats sold across 6 showings at Disney springs

 

24 seats sold across 139 showings💀