The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Grand Cine]

9 minutes ago, YM! said:

3-Day (FSS) Opening Weekend Tracking Range: $45M-$65M
Domestic Total Tracking Range: $185M-$289M

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-disneys-wish-and-ridley-scotts-napoleon/

 

Goddamn @Shawn

Wouah , it's  way higher than I predict , i think 25-30 OW/38-45 5 Day , like Encanto maybe a bit higher , and if the movie make the same as disney pre covid , i think the movie could make a 115-135 finish

[M37]

1 hour ago, boxoff53 said:

When a movie has slow pre-sales, is there a point of no return? For example,  if pace doesn't pick up by 1 week from premiere,  it probably never will? Or is there always a chance to overcome slow presales if reviews and word of mouth are good?

 

And I'm asking historically here,  not hypothetically.  Like how often has it been observed that a movie starts off slow and is slow right up to premiere day,  then manages to be a big success?

It depends on the genre, where family and horror films are notoriously late bloomers, selling the majority of tickets late, and have the potential to exceed expectations at pretty much anytime up to the final day of sales: see Minions, M3GAN, Insidious 5 among others. (Demographics can also play a role, particularly if a film appeals to audiences less likely to pre-buy in general).

 

All films pick up the pace in the final week, its just a question of how much - there's a fairly consistent range of potential.  For established films/franchises, IMO (others will view it differently) the sales up to T-7 set the baseline for both volume and pace, and narrow the potential final outcome considerably. To me, the point of no return is around T-4: if a film has not kicked it into gear enough over that final weekend of presales, its just not likely to surprise after that (excluding exceptions of holiday impacts like Thor L&T or a major review bumps like Batman).

 

We're actually seeing that play out in real time, where I called FNAF's pace over the past weekend uninspiring, and now we're getting a tepid finish relative to comps.

Edited October 26, 2023 by M37

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, boxoff53 said:

When a movie has slow pre-sales, is there a point of no return? For example,  if pace doesn't pick up by 1 week from premiere,  it probably never will? Or is there always a chance to overcome slow presales if reviews and word of mouth are good?

 

And I'm asking historically here,  not hypothetically.  Like how often has it been observed that a movie starts off slow and is slow right up to premiere day,  then manages to be a big success?

Not necessarily. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 is the most recent example of this. 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Not necessarily. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 is the most recent example of this. 

 

Let There Be Carnage is the poster child of the Out of Nowhere late explosion, alongside Minions 2.  LTBC in particular had such a huge explosion on Sunday Night (T-4) that I actually took the time to redo the entire sample at around 1:30am my time just to make sure I hadn't made massive errors somewhere as that's how unexpected the surge was.

 

But they are also very much "exception to the rule" type things.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Porthos

[Hilts]

Freelance has sold 31 tickets in Oklahoma which points to $100k previews, let's see if they report it 🙂

 

Highly doubt it will reach $3m OW, my guess would be half that.

[Bob Train]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 10/26/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
11/3/2023	The Marsh King’s Daughter						STX / Lionsgate / Roadside Attractions
11/3/2023	Priscilla	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000			$10,000,000 – $27,000,000		A24
11/3/2023	What Happens Later						Bleecker Street
11/10/2023	The Holdovers (Wide Expansion; LA+NY Oct. 27, Limited Nov. 3)						Focus Features
11/10/2023	The Marvels	$45,000,000 – $67,000,000	-9%		$109,000,000 – $169,000,000	-9%	Disney / Marvel Studios
11/10/2023	Journey to Bethlehem	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000	-25%		$15,000,000 – $38,000,000	-17%	Sony / AFFIRM Films
11/17/2023	The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes	$35,000,000 – $45,000,000	+5%		$90,000,000 – $142,000,000	+5%	Lionsgate
11/17/2023	Next Goal Wins	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000			$16,000,000 – $35,000,000		Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/17/2023	Thanksgiving	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000			$22,000,000 – $40,000,000		Sony / TriStar Pictures
11/17/2023	Trolls Band Together	$21,000,000 – $31,000,000			$68,000,000 – $113,000,000		Universal Pictures
11/22/2023	Napoleon	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000		$23,000,000 – $32,000,000	$46,000,000 – $74,000,000		Sony Pictures / Apple
11/22/2023	Saltburn (Expansion; Limited Nov. 17)						Amazon Studios / MGM
11/22/2023	Wish	$45,000,000 – $65,000,000		$64,000,000 – $94,000,000	$185,000,000 – $289,000,000		Walt Disney Pictures

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-disneys-wish-and-ridley-scotts-napoleon/

Edited October 26, 2023 by Bob Train

[DAJK]

47 minutes ago, Hilts said:

Freelance has sold 31 tickets in Oklahoma which points to $100k previews, let's see if they report it 🙂

 

Highly doubt it will reach $3m OW, my guess would be half that.

My dad really wants to see Freelance lol. Not very often that happens with a movie I never heard of. 

[Hilts]

On 10/25/2023 at 9:48 PM, Hilts said:

 

After Death							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	12	23	8	101	2,020	5.00%	8.60%
T-4	12	23	5	106	2,020	5.25%	4.95%
T-3	12	23	17	123	2,020	6.09%	16.04%
T-2	17	33	24	147	2,950	4.98%	19.51%
T-1	19	43	23	170	3,520	4.83%	15.65%
MTC1	6	14	+3	38	1,001	3.80%	8.57%
MTC2	4	8	+3	33	860	3.84%	10.00%
MTC3	3	6	+17	93	706	13.17%	22.37%
Other	6	15	0	6	953	0.63%	0.00%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.817x	=	$0.90m
Sound of Freedom					0.048x	=	$0.25m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					1.574x	=	$0.87m
A Haunting in Venice					0.694x	=	$0.83m
The Creator					0.375x	=	$0.60m

 

Not great, thinking could land around $750k-$800k now.

 

After Death							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-4	12	23	5	106	2,020	5.25%	4.95%
T-3	12	23	17	123	2,020	6.09%	16.04%
T-2	17	33	24	147	2,950	4.98%	19.51%
T-1	19	43	23	170	3,520	4.83%	15.65%
T-0	19	43	54	224	3,520	6.36%	31.76%
MTC1	6	14	+25	63	1,001	6.29%	65.79%
MTC2	4	8	+1	34	860	3.95%	3.03%
MTC3	3	6	+12	105	706	14.87%	12.90%
Other	6	15	+16	22	953	2.31%	266.67%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.657x	=	$0.72m
Sound of Freedom					0.054x	=	$0.28m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					0.833x	=	$0.62m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					1.109x	=	$0.61m
A Haunting in Venice					0.556x	=	$0.67m
The Creator					0.376x	=	$0.60m

 

Range of comps here but as Shawn alluded this is niche and unfortunately I only have SoF as something vaguely relevant.

 

Trend is still downwards so I will go for $500k but could be wildly out here. Will be useful going forward for future faith-based titles.

[Hilts]

On 10/25/2023 at 10:05 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-19	21	173	27	535	32,650	1.64%	5.31%
T-18	21	173	14	549	32,650	1.68%	2.62%
T-17	21	173	18	567	32,650	1.74%	3.28%
T-16	21	173	12	579	32,650	1.77%	2.12%
T-15	21	173	6	585	32,650	1.79%	1.04%
MTC1	8	59	+1	301	10,485	2.87%	0.33%
MTC2	4	48	0	76	8,204	0.93%	0.00%
MTC3	3	39	+3	158	8,077	1.96%	1.94%
Other	6	27	+2	50	5,884	0.85%	4.17%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.673x	=	$4.85m
Barbie					0.377x	=	$8.38m
Oppenheimer					0.683x	=	$7.18m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.025x	=	$9.02m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.622x

 

Ouchie. Bottom of the U.

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-18	21	173	14	549	32,650	1.68%	2.62%
T-17	21	173	18	567	32,650	1.74%	3.28%
T-16	21	173	12	579	32,650	1.77%	2.12%
T-15	21	173	6	585	32,650	1.79%	1.04%
T-14	21	173	6	591	32,650	1.81%	1.03%
MTC1	8	59	+4	305	10,485	2.91%	1.33%
MTC2	4	48	0	76	8,204	0.93%	0.00%
MTC3	3	39	0	158	8,077	1.96%	0.00%
Other	6	27	+2	52	5,884	0.88%	4.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.654x	=	$4.71m
Barbie					0.354x	=	$7.85m
Oppenheimer					0.649x	=	$6.82m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.937x	=	$8.24m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.957x	=	$10.96m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.604x

 

Double ouchie! Zero impact.

 

Added TMNT which will likely come down shortly (maybe not tomorrow as that was a slow day, but after that).

 

Blue Beetle comp in a few days once it's a bit more established.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

3-Day (FSS) Opening Weekend Tracking Range: $45M-$65M
Domestic Total Tracking Range: $185M-$289M

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-disneys-wish-and-ridley-scotts-napoleon/

 

Goddamn @Shawn

 

Man, am I gonna tell Shawn he's too high...again:).  Hmmmm...

 

Well, if I am, I'd say to drag the 5 day Wish range down to $50-$75M (or even his Marvels 3 day range, b/c why not see the same numbers for Disney twice)...

 

But, maybe I won't mention it:)...

[jeffthehat]

2 hours ago, boxoff53 said:

I don't know anything about how tracking works, so what makes it low balling? Is it just because it's wildly out of line with other comps? Basically what is it that makes it obvious that it's a bad comp vs possibly the only one to get it right?

 

Yeah, data points that are far from the mean are outliers. Eras is a bad comp due to it having zero GA interest (i.e., Marvels should increase against it a lot towards the end). It just surprised me to see Marvels keeping pace with it over 9 days, as Eras was more presales frontloaded than I thought was even possible. It could be doing better in other samples though. 

[Bob Train]

12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Man, am I gonna tell Shawn he's too high...again:).  Hmmmm...

 

Well, if I am, I'd say to drag the 5 day Wish range down to $50-$75M (or even his Marvels 3 day range, b/c why not see the same numbers for Disney twice)...

 

But, maybe I won't mention it:)...

I don't see it as that high 

 

Moana grossed $248m, Tangled $200m

 

That is the expected range for a WDAS Princess movie imo

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Bob Train said:

I don't see it as that high 

 

Moana grossed $248m, Tangled $200m

 

That is the expected range for a WDAS Princess movie imo

 

For a Pre-Covid, pre-2023 WDAS princess movie, maybe.  We aren't there anymore.

 

But, who knows?:)  Maybe I'll be in for a good surprise! It would be an even bigger one with ALL the openers on that previous Fri and then the Thanksgiving weekend.  It seems every studio wanted a movie for that 5 day holiday frame.  Maybe b/c holidays are the one time families will spend (and I think they will...but theaters are gonna have options - heck, we've got an animated movie per weekend in November after the blank of Sept-Oct)...

[keysersoze123]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26458	27577	1119	4.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

13

 

T-15 Comps:

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	59.43		127	1883		0/96	13658/15541	12.12%		6409	17.46%		6.38m
GOTG3	31.55		69	3547		0/203	25548/29095	12.19%		10750	10.41%		5.52m
TLM	77.71		96	1440		0/154	21277/22717	6.34%		6561	17.06%		8.00m
AtSV	59.14		71	1892		0/123	18027/19919	9.50%		9744	11.48%		10.27m
Flash	96.30		46	1162		0/178	23986/25148	4.62%		5327	21.01%		9.34m
Indy 5	95.72		53	1169		0/128	19072/20241	5.78%		4767	23.47%		6.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       157/8661  [1.81% sold]
Matinee:    38/2548  [1.49% | 3.40% of all tickets sold]
3D:              71/5021  [1.41% | 6.34% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

@keysersoze123 :  Um.... Not yet. 🙂 

 

PREEMPTIVE (not a mod, mind) "***NOT*** THE MARVELS THREAD" REMINDER, and keeping the following solely on tracking:  I did express some ambivalence at the idea that any sort of major rumor-mongering might have enough time locally to be picked up by tracking.  Could have gone either way, as I was just unsure.  So.... "Um... Not yet. 🙂 "

 

NB:  While I did mention a possible incoming Halo Effect in that very post, a key component of my Halo Effect thoughts is that folks have to be at the theater to get a "sure, I'll pick up some tickets for UPCOMING MOVIE while I'm here" boost.  I would tend to think just the opposite might be happening in the direct lead up/day before a major release.  Though I admit to not paying nearly as much casual attention to that sort of thing.

 

Anyway.... "Not yet. 🙂 "

hmm. Let us see if there is any boost today. Otherwise just the rumor on social media is not a factor. Probably a tv spot about that might spread it wide but still not sure if that will help. 

 

Edit: @Hilts update has pretty much nuked this idea. Let us hope that strike is resolved with good terms for SAG and final push is stronger. 

Edited October 26, 2023 by keysersoze123

[Taylor89]

Can eras reach 20m this week?

[keysersoze123]

On 10/25/2023 at 7:05 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Five Night at Freddy's Friday - 156685/815788 2293391.05 5405 shows +23599

 

Huge increase in shows as expected. I think it has enough capacity to hit 400k+ final. But if final surge does not match what can happen, I could see true friday drop to mid to high 20s and with previews at mid to high 30s. That should still be sufficient for 75-80m OW which is still great. 

Five Night at Freddy's Friday - 187685/829419 2725419.39 5505 shows +31000

 

Good day yesterday for sure. As I posted earlier its going for 250K+ by the time shows start. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/25/2023 at 6:34 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	283	31233	0.91%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-22

 

EA on Saturday = 175 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.717x) of Elemental $1.72M Previews

(0.281x) of Haunted Mansion $871k Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.29M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	285	31233	0.91%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-21

 

EA on Saturday = 189 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.725x) of Elemental $1.74M Previews

(0.275x) of Haunted Mansion $854k Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.30M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/25/2023 at 6:30 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	559	29762	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-27

 

(1.602x) of Elemental $3.84M Previews

 

*12 seats sold over the last two days*

 

417 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-26

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	563	29762	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-26

 

(1.555x) of Elemental $3.73M Previews

 

421 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

52 seats sold over 10 showings 

[DAJK]

Freddy’s still selling pretty well locally. Not sure what other MTC trackers are seeing but given regional comps I don’t see this missing 10M unless ATP is insanely low.

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/22/2023 at 10:22 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	119	74	889	21133	4.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		701	N/A	78.85
MTC1:		454	44	51.07
Marcus:		93	2	10.46
Alamo:		91	5	10.24
Other chains:		251	23	28.23

 

Comps:

0.82x Oppenheimer: $8.6 Million

1.23x Mission Impossible 7 (w/ EA): $11.08 Million

1.42x FNAF: ???

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	119	80	969	21133	4.59

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		748	47	77.19
MTC1:		493	39	50.88
Marcus:		104	11	10.73
Alamo:		92	1	9.49
Other chains:		280	29	28.9

 

Comps:

0.73x Oppenheimer: $7.69 Million

1.02x Mission Impossible 7 (w/ EA): $9.24 Million

1.32x Indiana Jones 5: $9.48 Million

1.18x FNAF: ???

 

Dropped against all existing comps, added Indiana Jones comp. Certainly no bump here either.

Edited October 26, 2023 by abracadabra1998