The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/25/2023 at 6:37 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2239	52152	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

 

(0.435x) of GOTG3~$7.61M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.61M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2296	52152	4.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

57

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

 

(0.430x) of GOTG3~$7.53M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.53M

 

Nothing groundbreaking, but the best day of sales locally since T-28

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:15pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	264	24678	30330	5652	18.64%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	18
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	1538
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	499

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic2[11:40-12:05]	174.07		364	3247		0/126	12668/15915	20.40%		3951	143.05%		10.88m
Min 2 [11:40-12:20]	112.59		1000	5020		0/215	25228/30248	16.60%		6591	85.75%		12.10m
BA [11:35-12:25]	156.13		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	125.77%		11.71m
Scrm6 [12:05-12:25]	217.13		324	2603		0/118	11473/14076	18.49%		3134	180.34%		12.38m
Wick4 [11:40-12:20]	130.08		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	103.74%		11.58m
AtSV [11:40-12:15]	70.05		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	58.00%		12.15m
GOTG3[11:30-12:20]	61.44		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	52.58%		10.75m
TLM [11:40-12:15]	100.87		629	5603		0/225	23553/29156	19.22%		6561	86.15%		10.39m
Flash [11:40-12:15]	132.96		634	4251		0/205	22721/26972	15.76%		5327	106.10%		12.90m
Barbie[11:30-12:10]	53.41		1130	10583		3/271	19233/29816	35.49%		12077	46.80%		11.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1233/8574  [14.38% sold]
Matinee:    273/2845  [9.60% | 4.83% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Not too bad of a start, all things considered.  Was mentally looking for something starting with a "5" and it missed it by 'that much'.  Probably looking at something within 11m to 12m right now, with the lower end of 11s being more likely, presuming Sacramento isn't under or over-performing.  The one skunk at the party is the TLM comp, but that over-performed here.  And, as said last night, been an ATP hike since Sonic 2.

 

All in all, could have been much more tepid of a start.  See how it continues through the day.

 

One last thing.  The sheer number of showtimes this got might burn off a ton of demand, so keep that in mind when making IM projections.

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	274	24505	30971	6466	20.88%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	10
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	641
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	814

 

T-0 (Final) Comps:

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic2 [3:55-4:15]	163.65		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	163.65%		10.23m
Min 2 [3:50-4:20]	98.10		1571	6591		0/218	23799/30390	21.69%		6591	98.10%		10.55m
BA [3:50-4:30]	143.88		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	143.88%		10.79m
Scream6[4:20-4:40]	206.32		531	3134		0/121	11402/14536	21.56%		3134	206.32%		11.76m
Wick4 [3:50-4:10]	118.69		1103	5448		0/186	17238/22686	24.01%		5448	118.69%		10.56m
GOTG3[3:45-4:30]	60.15		1551	10750		0/347	31169/41919	25.64%		10750	60.15%		10.53m
TLM [3:50-4:15]	98.55		958	6561		0/235	23202/29763	22.04%		6561	98.55%		10.15m
AtSV [3:50-4:20]	66.36		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	66.36%		11.51m
Flash [3:55-4:20]	121.38		1076	5327		0/205	21645/26972	19.75%		5327	121.38%		11.77m
Barbie[3:50-4:30]	53.54		1494	12077		4/274	17904/29981	40.28%		12077	53.54%		11.94m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1479/8622  [17.15% sold]
Matinee:    356/2845  [12.51% | 5.51% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Maaaan, you'd think this was a movie ticketed for an 18m-22m opener with the number of showtimes that this ended up getting.  I know that theaters are starving, but jeeze louise!  And, remember, this thing started at 52 showtimes (albeit with a few theaters not checked in yet).

 

Anyway, much like everywhere else, walkups were... "not great, not terrible".  Or, more charitably, fans really frontloaded this flick.

 

As for comps? The Barbs comp is obviously unusable due to differing capacity (21% full vs 40% full!!!).  On the other hand, the PLF penetration was... surprisingly decent?  Ended up being 29.28% of all sales locally.  That plus the undeniable strength 9pm+ makes me want to tip the scales ever ever so slightly.

 

Just took a look, and Sonic 2 had a similar PLF penetration at 28% (Minions 2 had 3D and was at 37% PLF!!!). Sacto's probably running a little hot, but let's say 10.6m +/- .6m after bumping up the Sonic 2 comp slightly for ATP hikes/late night sales.   Kinda want to go with 10.5 flat, but the late night strength is giving me too much pause.

 

(Also, frankly, kiiiiinda want to go with 10.75m +/-.6m, but I don't think the comps quite call for it, so going a little lower — if only just)

((also also, that Across the Spider-Verse comp is wild, but too much other data is pointing in other directions for me to give it too much weight — well that and all of the other markets coming in low))

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/22/2023 at 10:22 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Trolls: Band Together (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-13	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	53	0	8	6304	0.13
Saturday Nov 4 EA: 12 theaters	12	61	176	1594	11.04
TOTALS:	65	61	184	7898	2.33

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		44	24	23.91
Marcus:		47	21	25.54
Alamo:		78	10	42.39
Other chains:		15	6	8.15

 

Trolls EA numbers:

0.79x of TMNT EA (both Saturday and Monday ) on T-13 and T-11 respectively = circa $1.3 million for Trolls EA.

0.49x of MI7 EA on T-13 = circa $1 million for Trolls EA

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-39):

Day: T-39	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	44	16	915	7836	11.68

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		775	N/A	84.7
MTC1:		801	9	87.54
Marcus:		48	2	5.25
Alamo:		14	0	1.53
Other chains:		52	5	5.68

 

Comp:

0.0896x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $3.11 Million

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Trolls: Band Together (T-21):

Day: T-21, T-9	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	53	8	16	6304	0.25
Saturday Nov 4 EA: 13 theaters	13	44	220	1751	12.56
TOTALS:	66	52	236	8055	2.93

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		66	22	27.97
Marcus:		72	25	30.51
Alamo:		74	-4	31.36
Other chains:		24	9	10.17

 

Comps (for EA ONLY):

TMNT EA: Missed

0.57x of MI7 EA on T-10 = $1.13 million

 

The EA for this is still doing really well. Gonna wait to comp Thursday previews until after EA, doesn't make much sense in my opinion since it's syphoning off all the demand.

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-35):

Day: T-35	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	44	21	936	7836	11.94

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		793	18	84.72
MTC1:		820	19	87.61
Marcus:		48	0	5.13
Alamo:		14	0	1.5
Other chains:		54	2	5.77

 

Comp:

0.0864x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $3 Million

[M37]

FWIW, I’ve been at basically ~$10.5M for FNAF since the earliest updates today, don’t see much reason to move off that as more info has come in 

 

But still banging the drum on $40M Fri, even if the confidence in that benchmark has come down 

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

FWIW, I’ve been at basically ~$10.5M for FNAF since the earliest updates today, don’t see much reason to move off that as more info has come in 

 

But still banging the drum on $40M Fri, even if the confidence in that benchmark has come down 

 

Never did get you down to my $10M flat...ALMOST:)...

 

Seriously, though, I hope it does do better...

[M37]

31 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Never did get you down to my $10M flat...ALMOST:)...

 

Seriously, though, I hope it does do better...

 

If only because that was the lower bound  on my forecast matrix 

[TheFlatLannister]

7 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

(1.136x) of Flash $11.02M Previews

(0.581x) of ATSV $10.08M Previews

(1.686x) of Fast X $12.65M Previews

(0.600x) of GOTG 3 $10.50M Previews

Comps AVG: $11.06M

Hmmm, great finish but comps look more like $10M than say $12M+

Guess I'll go with $10.5M-$11M (would not be shocked with $10M flat tbh)

I was a bit worried Orlando was running cold, but after seeing the last few updates from trackers, I feel a lot more confident in my $10.5M-$11M prediction. 

[M37]

On 10/16/2023 at 8:00 AM, M37 said:

Side note: we haven't a preview value land between that $11.6M [Venom 2] and the infamous $17M range since Black Widow, even with a handful of managing to land in the $10-$11M range

::sigh::

 

 

FNAF seems destined to join the cluster of Minions ($10.75), Oppy ($10.5) and Mermaid ($10.2)

 

Is it time to make another "never bet on this mid-range" rule?

Edited October 27, 2023 by M37

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

I’m halting all tracking if this is even remotely accurate….

 

Tonight, box office sources tell us that Thursday previews are racking up north of$7M but warn “are very frontloaded.”

 

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-five-nights-at-freddys-1235584788/

[Bob Train]

Just now, XXR's Eras Tour said:

I’m halting all tracking if this is even remotely accurate….

 

Tonight, box office sources tell us that Thursday previews are racking up north of$7M but warn “are very frontloaded.”

 

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-five-nights-at-freddys-1235584788/

 

 

 

Distribution sources are telling us that Disney Marvel Studios’ final James Gunn movie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, is doing around $14M+ in previews.

 

 

[abracadabra1998]

Didn’t Deadline say two weeks ago that Taylor Swift was doing 5M in Thursday previews and then it ended up being 2.6 or something like that. 
 

All I’m sayin is I don’t trust deadline’s “early outlooks” a ton

[TheFlatLannister]

12 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

I’m halting all tracking if this is even remotely accurate….

 

Tonight, box office sources tell us that Thursday previews are racking up north of$7M but warn “are very frontloaded.”

 

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-five-nights-at-freddys-1235584788/

[Giorno]

10.5-11m is north of 7m

[keysersoze123]

22 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

I’m halting all tracking if this is even remotely accurate….

 

Tonight, box office sources tell us that Thursday previews are racking up north of$7M but warn “are very frontloaded.”

 

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-five-nights-at-freddys-1235584788/

Considering how strong Friday sales are I hope they mean for saturday and beyond. 

[rehpyc]

10.5M - 11M is where I'm at

[tdangie]

I'm just gonna leave this here if ya'll are wondering what the fan reactions have been in the actual theaters. This coincides with a lot of other stories I've heard about how energetic the cinemas have been with FNAF fans.

Critics panned the Emma Tammi directed movie at 25% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes, but those who are going don’t give a sh** how the reviews read. Last night at a very passionate Burbank, CA AMC preview I attended, fans were so over the moon, it reminded me of the time I first saw Twilight with a crazed crowd at what’s now the AMC Grove. Fans were cheering on the YouTube influencer cameos (peeps who are known for playing and theorizing about Five Nights at Freddy’s games) in the film, as well as “oohhh”ing and “aaah”ing at plot twists, and character appearances, and even the fan-made end credits song by music artist The Living Tombstone. If you weren’t dressed up last night, well then you were square. 

Edited October 27, 2023 by tdangie

[Zakiyyah6]

Tracking isn't an exact science so for all I know that Deadline number could be true but I'm going to trust the people in here who say about 10.5M, at least for of now.

[keysersoze123]

Wait in all the craziness around Freddy previews and Wish early number from BO.com, no one mentioned @Shawn has updated Marvels to 45-67m. So he is saying there is more than a fair chance that Wish opening during Thanksgiving week, can top Marvels 3 day with its just 3 day. That is nuts for sure. I will look at Wish over the weekend. Brief look at MTC2 did not indicate anything special to me. But this is family movie opening 4 weeks later and so there is still time. 

[HummingLemon496]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wait in all the craziness around Freddy previews and Wish early number from BO.com, no one mentioned @Shawn has updated Marvels to 45-67m. So he is saying there is more than a fair chance that Wish opening during Thanksgiving week, can top Marvels 3 day with its just 3 day. That is nuts for sure. I will look at Wish over the weekend. Brief look at MTC2 did not indicate anything special to me. But this is family movie opening 4 weeks later and so there is still time. 

 

The Rock won

The Hierarchy changed

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Zakiyyah6]

The Rock didn't win crap. Black Adam being less of a flop than other flops doesn't suddenly make it a success. That's not how box office works.