The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[The Wild Eric]

Quorum Updates

Five Nights at Freddy's T-1: 51.36% Awareness

Priscilla T-8: 32.09%

Trolls Band Together T-22: 46.57%

Next Goal Wins T-22: 16.03%

The Boy and the Heron T-43: 13.99%

Wonka T-50: 51.14%

The Color Purple T-60: 36.63%

 

Freelance T-1: 31.23% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 22% chance of 10M

 

Silent Night T-36: 24.34% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 55% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

 

Anyone But You T-57: 18.54% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

[Tinalera]

The Marvels

Thurs Nov 9 and Fri Nov 10

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	18	199	3797	3996	0.0497
	Fri	3	22	117	4999	5116	0.0228
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	18	188	4017	4205	0.0447
	Fri	4	30	206	6070	6276	0.0328

 

 

Feeling good enough to add Calgary to the mix again.

 

This restart has been helpful, a different way of setting up my sheets makes it a little more efficent (REALLY miss the "Seats sold/seats remaining on the website though.)

Edited October 27, 2023 by Tinalera

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, Eric Fazbear said:

Quorum Updates

Five Nights at Freddy's T-1: 51.36% Awareness

Priscilla T-8: 32.09%

Trolls Band Together T-22: 46.57%

Next Goal Wins T-22: 16.03%

The Boy and the Heron T-43: 13.99%

Wonka T-50: 51.14%

The Color Purple T-60: 36.63%

 

Freelance T-1: 31.23% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 22% chance of 10M

 

Silent Night T-36: 24.34% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 55% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

 

Anyone But You T-57: 18.54% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

That "Anyone But You" I thought you were being clever in the "anyone but you is aware of this film"-then I realized thats the NAME of the film lol (which in an ironic way I havent heard of this film, so it may as well be right LOL)

Edited October 27, 2023 by Tinalera

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-13):

 

704 tickets at 10 Houston AMC's/+13 YD

 

Comp:

 

1.37 x (D-13)MI7 = $9.57m

 

Comp should be lower in actuality cause EA was part of the $7m total PV for Mi7 but not sure how much exactly so i just used full amount

 

[Hilts]

22 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-18	21	173	14	549	32,650	1.68%	2.62%
T-17	21	173	18	567	32,650	1.74%	3.28%
T-16	21	173	12	579	32,650	1.77%	2.12%
T-15	21	173	6	585	32,650	1.79%	1.04%
T-14	21	173	6	591	32,650	1.81%	1.03%
MTC1	8	59	+4	305	10,485	2.91%	1.33%
MTC2	4	48	0	76	8,204	0.93%	0.00%
MTC3	3	39	0	158	8,077	1.96%	0.00%
Other	6	27	+2	52	5,884	0.88%	4.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.654x	=	$4.71m
Barbie					0.354x	=	$7.85m
Oppenheimer					0.649x	=	$6.82m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.937x	=	$8.24m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.957x	=	$10.96m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.604x

 

Double ouchie! Zero impact.

 

Added TMNT which will likely come down shortly (maybe not tomorrow as that was a slow day, but after that).

 

Blue Beetle comp in a few days once it's a bit more established.

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-17	21	173	18	567	32,650	1.74%	3.28%
T-16	21	173	12	579	32,650	1.77%	2.12%
T-15	21	173	6	585	32,650	1.79%	1.04%
T-14	21	173	6	591	32,650	1.81%	1.03%
T-13	21	173	13	604	32,650	1.85%	2.20%
MTC1	8	59	+5	310	10,485	2.96%	1.64%
MTC2	4	48	+2	78	8,204	0.95%	2.63%
MTC3	3	39	+4	162	8,077	2.01%	2.53%
Other	6	27	+2	54	5,884	0.92%	3.85%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.649x	=	$4.67m
Barbie					0.336x	=	$7.45m
Oppenheimer					0.626x	=	$6.57m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.918x	=	$8.08m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.942x	=	$10.88m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.575x	=	$5.92m

 

Comp average: $7.26m

 

FNaF now properly added. Hopefully on the up from here (all comps down again though).

[Porthos]

Just as a general reminder to folks, MI7 had a ton of Discount Tuesday tickets sold as part of their sales. They, IIRC, didn't report EA sales as part of the announced preview number. If I also recall correctly, Jat reverse engineered a Tuesday + EA number as an approximation, though I'd have to dig through the thread(s) to find it.  So while Mi7 did indeed have a lot of full priced EA tickets sold, it also had a lot of discounted tickets which movies like The Marvels won't.

 

Just something to keep in mind.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26357	27517	1160	4.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	58.03		116	1999		0/96	13542/15541	12.86%		6409	18.10%		6.23m
GOTG3	32.28		47	3594		0/203	25501/29095	12.35%		10750	10.79%		5.65m
TLM	75.97		87	1527		0/154	21187/22714	6.72%		6561	17.68%		7.82m
AtSV	58.41		94	1986		0/129	18803/20789	9.55%		9744	11.90%		10.14m
Flash	94.54		65	1227		0/178	23921/25148	4.88%		5327	21.78%		9.17m
Indy 5	92.21		89	1258		0/128	18983/20241	6.22%		4767	24.33%		6.64m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     164/8601  [1.91% sold]
Matinee:    40/2548  [1.57% | 3.45% of all tickets sold]
3D:            72/5021  [1.43% | 6.21% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

@keysersoze123 Sorta, kinda?  If I squint?  Probs more folks who were at the theater today also buying tickets.  I mean, yes it's waaay better than the terribad last two days. But it isn't that much better than the T-20 to T-18 period.

 

So... "Sorta, kinda, if I squint."

If this is the boost, its weak for sure. I think ones who were excited on social media already bought their tickets :-). We have to wait until close to release for any tangible boost. 

[keysersoze123]

Wish

Early Shows(11-18) - 446/22116 4661.36 188 shows

Previews(11/21) - 3945/212538 59858.67 1305 shows

Wednesday(11/22) - 3273/398204 44992.33 2451 shows

 

 

Nothing much to see here. I must admit I am surprised by @Shawn early tracking for it. 

 

Edit: Ticket price for discount tuesday is not relevant. I cannot see which shows are discounted. MI7 sold like 177K tickets for just 7m. So multi for tuesday movies will be different. Anyway I am not expecting its previews to be that much. Early shows will now take away tuesday sales anyway as families would rather go on saturday than tuesday. 

Edited October 27, 2023 by keysersoze123

[abracadabra1998]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just as a general reminder to folks, MI7 had a ton of Discount Tuesday tickets sold as part of their sales. They, IIRC, didn't report EA sales as part of the announced preview number. If I also recall correctly, Jat reverse engineered a Tuesday + EA number as an approximation, though I'd have to dig through the thread(s) to find it.  So while Mi7 did indeed have a lot of full priced EA tickets sold, it also had a lot of discounted tickets which movies like The Marvels won't.

 

Just something to keep in mind.

I have it on my sheets as 7 M Tuesday, 9 M with ALL EA. That’s what Jat said I think

[YM!]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wish

Early Shows(11-18) - 446/22116 4661.36 188 shows

Previews(11/21) - 3945/212538 59858.67 1305 shows

Wednesday(11/22) - 3273/398204 44992.33 2451 shows

 

 

Nothing much to see here. I must admit I am surprised by @Shawn early tracking for it. 

That's pretty solid for original animation.

 

Isn’t this well above Elemental at the same point in time? On May 21st, Elemental did these ticket numbers

 

Elemental MTC1 

Previews - 2859/301719 44379.23 2109 shows +219

Friday - 2485/479191 36472.47 3214 shows +125

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by YM!

[M37]

On 10/24/2023 at 12:00 PM, M37 said:

For reference & comparison

 

GOTG3 Friday ($30.6M TFri) [$141/tix PSM]

Guardians Friday MTC1 (T-0) - 217053/1391700 3603686.49 7874 shows +43650

 

ATSV Friday ($34.5M TFri) [$125.6/tix PSM]

Spiderverse MTC1 Friday PS Final - 274568/1211561 4498223.74 6794 shows 

 

Even if you split the difference on pace/PSM there, if we do indeed get to 250K by Friday morning, seems like $30M TFri would be nearly a given, with $35M in play if it leans more towards the ATSV pace with a GOTG3 type market share

 

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Just for records

Five Nights in Freddy's

Previews Final - 176412/562443 2562597.40 3922 shows

Friday PS End - 262460/834936 3730113.12 5566 shows

 

Freddy's did not have a great finish but it did under index here. I hope the same happens for Friday BO as well. 

51 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Universal with a super early estimate of $34m Fri for FNAF, including previews.

I know FNAF proved to be frontloaded for Thursday presales, but still not quite down to the MCU level (+50% final day vs MCU standard of ~44%), and I still have a difficult time seeing below $30M TFri. Maybe the Peacock D&D effect takes a huge bite out of potential, or the younger audience can't make it out for Fri matinees like an MCU film so it lags, or Friday is more fan-heavy than even Thursday and walk-up rate is lower, or MTC1 doesn't underindex like it did for Thursday ... but at this point feels like I'm reaching

 

Some quick math & extrapolation, and I'm gonna say ~$31M expected TFri based on these few data points (but more would increase confidence)

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, YM! said:

That's pretty solid for original animation.

 

Isn’t this well above Elemental at the same point in time? On May 21st, Elemental did these ticket numbers

 

Elemental MTC1 

Previews - 2859/301719 44379.23 2109 shows +219

Friday - 2485/479191 36472.47 3214 shows +125

 

Discount tuesday effect is there. But nothing about this screams big breakout to me. Let us wait and see. 

[YM!]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Discount tuesday effect is there. But nothing about this screams big breakout to me. Let us wait and see. 

True but even then multiplier should be strong for the five day. Encanto and SW did around 25x the Tuesday previews for the five days, and even accounting for earlier showtimes think 20-23x is still fair game. Wednesday also seems healthily above Elemental’s Friday.

 

I feel confident if it keeps the momentum against Elemental, while I'm not sure on the numbers Shawn said, I think a 35-45m three day can easily happen with the pace it's at now.

Edited October 27, 2023 by YM!

[Shawn Robbins]

On 10/27/2023 at 3:24 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Wish

Early Shows(11-18) - 446/22116 4661.36 188 shows

Previews(11/21) - 3945/212538 59858.67 1305 shows

Wednesday(11/22) - 3273/398204 44992.33 2451 shows

 

 

Nothing much to see here. I must admit I am surprised by @Shawn early tracking for it. 

 

What are you comping it with?

 

I personally would not put too much value in strictly monitoring pre-sales for this one just yet. It's an original film, opening midweek for a major holiday, and has several female-driven or female-friendly demographic movies ahead of it. That and families will be Wish's core audience.

 

That said, pre-sales for all the major chains are weighted in the tracking range already and look to be about where I'd expect them to be for now. They are just weighted slightly less (for the high end of the range) than they would be for a major sequel or the like since they are not super informative at this point in the window (but will be closer to release).

 

I would expect more of a slow burn in ticket sales for this one, pending buzz/reviews and speculative strike resolution in the next few weeks.

 

If Wish cannot slightly more than double (EDIT: meant to say triple, and yes, I know that sounds like a lot...) Strange World's opening (at least), something will have gone very wrong but it would be something that isn't measurable quite yet.

[Grand Cine]

@keysersoze123 can you make the comparaison with Trolls 3 please

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

 

If Wish cannot slightly more than double Strange World's opening (at least), something will have gone very wrong but it would be something that isn't measurable quite yet.

Doubling Strange World is fine. This needs to way more than that to hit your projections. So far nothing about presales scream a big breakout. 

 

Anyway let us wait and see. As you say family flicks are slow until close to release. Even Minions 2 did not go on big growth until final week. We will know if Wish is able to see that around there. With discount tuesday effect, I am not expecting previews to matter that much. 

[YM!]

I think Discount Tuesday doesn't really matter much for the Thanskgiving openers especially when both Encanto and SW benefited from it. Same for stuff like Ralph 2.

[Grand Cine]

46 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wish

Early Shows(11-18) - 446/22116 4661.36 188 shows

Previews(11/21) - 3945/212538 59858.67 1305 shows

Wednesday(11/22) - 3273/398204 44992.33 2451 shows

 

 

Nothing much to see here. I must admit I am surprised by @Shawn early tracking for it. 

 

Edit: Ticket price for discount tuesday is not relevant. I cannot see which shows are discounted. MI7 sold like 177K tickets for just 7m. So multi for tuesday movies will be different. Anyway I am not expecting its previews to be that much. Early shows will now take away tuesday sales anyway as families would rather go on saturday than tuesday. 

 

22 minutes ago, YM! said:

That's pretty solid for original animation.

 

Isn’t this well above Elemental at the same point in time? On May 21st, Elemental did these ticket numbers

 

Elemental MTC1 

Previews - 2859/301719 44379.23 2109 shows +219

Friday - 2485/479191 36472.47 3214 shows +125

 

At this point OD for Wish it's 23% better than Elemental so it's good. now we have two questions :

 

the first is could Wish take the same pace as Elemental until the final day , because the problem with Wish is that Elemental With the help of summer sould have a big jump in Thursday/Friday for the latter and it's not the case for Wish but this open in Thanksgiving and a lot of children and parents are already in holidays so maybe we could have the same effect . If it's true , at this point ans the comp of Elemental you have a Wednesday of 11,4M which is almost the double of Encanto . If the movie play like strange world or Encanto you have a 5 days weekend between 55-60M so i think at this point @Shawn doesn't have a bad prediction . Also Wish has less shows and seats at this point than Elemental so he could beneficts of the better big update of that the last week .

 

The second is also the WOM , it's more like Encanto or Strange World .

 

Now the most important is the pace of the next days

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, YM! said:

I think Discount Tuesday doesn't really matter much for the Thanskgiving openers especially when both Encanto and SW benefited from it. Same for stuff like Ralph 2.

Discount tickets reduce ATP even further. I would rather not compare to old releases pre covid. 

[Johnny Tran]

Just wanted to congratulate everyone who had been tracking FNAF these past few weeks. Incredible work. You guys nailed it and the trades weren't even close.  Great work.