The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[misterpepp]

Love Actually is getting a pretty sizeable 20th anniversary re-release, opens December 8. Tickets on sale Nov 2.

[Porthos]

9 hours ago, YM! said:

Maybe Ninja Turtles? Don't care for the comparison as I suspect Turtles to be more frontloaded but it has Tuesday previews.

 

Was gonna actually mention TMNT as a Not Terrible comp.  Two downsides.  One the sneaks it had probably burned off some demand, and if they didn't the EA showings certainly did.  The second is... Paramount in its Infinite Wisdom also only reported the Tuesday number for TMNT.  Not sure if Jat ever reversed engineered that one or not.

 

Either way, since Wish is gonna have its own sneaks/EA that part sorta kinda works (though at first glance looks to be faaaaar fewer showings for Wish's EA/sneak on Sat versus TMNT two days of sneaks/EA on Sun/Mon), but it'll be better for the Tuesday portion of Wish's sales.  The downside though is that I presume Disney is gonna report a total EA + Tuesday when it announces its preview numbers as they don't seem to hate us like P'mount does presumably they'll want to have as big a number as they can/I don't recall Disney playing games like that in the past.

 

Still, does sorta kinda work.  Maybe.  With the points above kept in mind.

[Porthos]

On 10/26/2023 at 11:52 PM, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26357	27517	1160	4.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	58.03		116	1999		0/96	13542/15541	12.86%		6409	18.10%		6.23m
GOTG3	32.28		47	3594		0/203	25501/29095	12.35%		10750	10.79%		5.65m
TLM	75.97		87	1527		0/154	21187/22714	6.72%		6561	17.68%		7.82m
AtSV	58.41		94	1986		0/129	18803/20789	9.55%		9744	11.90%		10.14m
Flash	94.54		65	1227		0/178	23921/25148	4.88%		5327	21.78%		9.17m
Indy 5	92.21		89	1258		0/128	18983/20241	6.22%		4767	24.33%		6.64m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     164/8601  [1.91% sold]
Matinee:    40/2548  [1.57% | 3.45% of all tickets sold]
3D:            72/5021  [1.43% | 6.21% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

@keysersoze123 Sorta, kinda?  If I squint?  Probs more folks who were at the theater today also buying tickets.  I mean, yes it's waaay better than the terribad last two days. But it isn't that much better than the T-20 to T-18 period.

 

So... "Sorta, kinda, if I squint."

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26338	27517	1179	4.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

19

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	56.52		87	2086		0/96	13455/15541	13.42%		6409	18.40%		6.07m
GOTG3	32.06		83	3677		0/203	25377/29054	12.66%		10750	10.97%		5.61m
TLM	72.60		97	1624		0/154	21095/22719	7.15%		6561	17.97%		7.48m
AtSV	56.98		83	2069		0/129	18720/20789	9.95%		9744	12.10%		9.89m
Flash	92.04		54	1281		0/178	23867/25148	5.09%		5327	22.13%		8.93m
Indy 5	89.52		59	1317		0/128	18924/20241	6.51%		4767	24.73%		6.45m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     167/8601  [1.94% sold]
Matinee:    39/2548  [1.53% | 3.31% of all tickets sold]
3D:            74/5021  [1.47% | 6.28% of all tickets sold]

[vafrow]

On 10/27/2023 at 5:40 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-14, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 628

New sales: 24

Growth: 4.0%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 16.1

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.520x of ATSV for $9.0M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 2.5 (2.6)

Early evening: 82.2 (82.1)

Late Evening: 14.6 (14.6)

 

It's slowing down slightly, which isn't good.

 

It makes me wonder what theatres will do for showtimes. MTC4 sets it's schedules for the following week on Tuesday night, which means this Tuesday, it'll confirm it's schedule for Thursday previews.

 

It's hard to see how they can justify expansion here, even though Swift is supposed to drop off. Theatres are going to be able to extend Swift another week without a lot of issue if that's what she wants. The week after gets dicey with Trolls and Hunger Games though.

 

 

The Marvels, T-13, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 661

New sales: 33

Growth: 5.3%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 16.9

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.441x of ATSV for $7.6M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 2.4 (2.5)

Early evening: 80.9 (82.2)

Late Evening: 16.0 (14.6)

 

Really not much of anything.

[abracadabra1998]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Was gonna actually mention TMNT as a Not Terrible comp.  Two downsides.  One the sneaks it had probably burned off some demand, and if they didn't the EA showings certainly did.  The second is... Paramount in its Infinite Wisdom also only reported the Tuesday number for TMNT.  Not sure if Jat ever reversed engineered that one or not.

 

Either way, since Wish is gonna have its own sneaks/EA that part sorta kinda works (though at first glance looks to be faaaaar fewer showings for Wish's EA/sneak on Sat versus TMNT two days of sneaks/EA on Sun/Mon), but it'll be better for the Tuesday portion of Wish's sales.  The downside though is that I presume Disney is gonna report a total EA + Tuesday when it announces its preview numbers as they don't seem to hate us like P'mount does presumably they'll want to have as big a number as they can/I don't recall Disney playing games like that in the past.

 

Still, does sorta kinda work.  Maybe.  With the points above kept in mind.

$3.85 Million Tuesday, $5.5 Million for All EA for TMNT is what I got down and what I believe Jat said

[M37]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think 50-55m over 5 days is solid for this.

11 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

$50-$75M 5 day (don't ask me for 3 day on that, b/c I'd have to do Math right now, and I'm tired:)...

10 hours ago, Relevation said:

I would peg this at a $43-53M 3-day and $65-80M 5-day.

10 hours ago, M37 said:

Something like ~$40M OW (3-day) / $160M total would seem to me to be solid if not high end target this early

A $40M 3-day would be ~$60M 5-day.  Sure seems like Wish's "vibes tracking" is getting everyone to roughly the same place @Shawn

 

Also want to throw this out there: with all the very correct issues discussed about trying to comp Wish's Tue preview - EA shows, Tue Discount, etc - might it just be easier to track and comp the Wed opening day instead? Not only would that value have a smaller MOE in projecting forward for the 3 & 5-day opening, but we have Mario as a ready made comp (volume will be way lower but pace should be similar), and pre-Thanksgiving Wed full day isn't all that much different than a 2pm preview start in summer like Elemental, Haunted Mansion, or even Minions or Super Pets

[charlie Jatinder]

MiniTC2 overindexed by 50% on Thursday previews and then underindexed by 70% on Friday. Saturday looks even worse.

 

LoL.

[tdangie]

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

MiniTC2 overindexed by 50% on Thursday previews and then underindexed by 70% on Friday. Saturday looks even worse.

 

LoL.

Ah is this about FNAF again? Saturday looks a kinda packed in theaters I'm looking at, but idk how normal this is

[M37]

With FNAF behind us, I was starting to work up the preview chart for Marvels, and (surprisingly) ran into a problem of comps. Part of that is we are in a transition period with trackers, having lost some and gained new ones, which  limits the data set.

 

I know the defacto choice is GOTG3, but I only have data from three active trackers before T-8, one being MTC1 which for technical difficulties isn't being updated regularly for Marvels. But beyond that, I'm not sure that's the right pace comp anyway, given the disparity in volume and time of year.

This is data from Sacto, showing the mutiplier from the T-14 and T-7 checkpoints to final value for several plausible comps:

 

Title	T-14 Multi	T-7 Multi	Th Gross
AMWQ	2.20	1.75	$17.0
BPWF	2.38	1.93	$28.0
Thor L&T	2.59	2.05	$29.0
Batman	2.88	2.27	$21.3
GOTG3	2.93	2.32	$17.5
FNAF	3.44	2.38	$10.3
Eternals	3.21	2.42	$9.5
Indy 5	3.79	2.65	$17.0
JWD	4.23	2.82	$18.0
Fast X	4.20	2.97	$7.5
Flash	4.27	3.02	$9.7
Scream VI	4.78	3.11	$5.7
Black Adam	4.93	3.22	$7.6
ATSV	4.91	3.22	$17.3

 

 

I personally think GOTG3, despite its great final week, it too low, as even Eternals with its terrible reviews still had a better growth rate than even GOTG3! [Possible COVID and/or Halloween factors there though] But the issue lies in that its a bit of dead zone above, with only Indy 5, which also had an atypical metro/rural market skew and probably wouldn't give the greatest values even if pace were mostly correct.

 

And then you jump up into the more walk-up heavy films (JWD is understated here, as reviews absolutely killed it in Sacto relative to other markets), so I suppose Flash? Given the frontloaded sales of even weaker MCU, I'm not sure the S6/BA/ATSV range is realistic even for an optimistic, GA/walk-up friendly scenario

 

Probably leaning towards the GOTG3, Flash, and Indy 5 combo, with others scattered in to fill voids, but not really too confident in the precision of that grouping

[abracadabra1998]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

With FNAF behind us, I was starting to work up the preview chart for Marvels, and (surprisingly) ran into a problem of comps. Part of that is we are in a transition period with trackers, having lost some and gained new ones, which  limits the data set.

 

I know the defacto choice is GOTG3, but I only have data from three active trackers before T-8, one being MTC1 which for technical difficulties isn't being updated regularly for Marvels. But beyond that, I'm not sure that's the right pace comp anyway, given the disparity in volume and time of year.

This is data from Sacto, showing the mutiplier from the T-14 and T-7 checkpoints to final value for several plausible comps:

 

Title	T-14 Multi	T-7 Multi	Th Gross
AMWQ	2.20	1.75	$17.0
BPWF	2.38	1.93	$28.0
Thor L&T	2.59	2.05	$29.0
Batman	2.88	2.27	$21.3
GOTG3	2.93	2.32	$17.5
FNAF	3.44	2.38	$10.3
Eternals	3.21	2.42	$9.5
Indy 5	3.79	2.65	$17.0
JWD	4.23	2.82	$18.0
Fast X	4.20	2.97	$7.5
Flash	4.27	3.02	$9.7
Scream VI	4.78	3.11	$5.7
Black Adam	4.93	3.22	$7.6
ATSV	4.91	3.22	$17.3

 

 

I personally think GOTG3, despite its great final week, it too low, as even Eternals with its terrible reviews still had a better growth rate than even GOTG3! [Possible COVID and/or Halloween factors there though] But the issue lies in that its a bit of dead zone above, with only Indy 5, which also had an atypical metro/rural market skew and probably wouldn't give the greatest values even if pace were mostly correct.

 

And then you jump up into the more walk-up heavy films (JWD is understated here, as reviews absolutely killed it in Sacto relative to other markets), so I suppose Flash? Given the frontloaded sales of even weaker MCU, I'm not sure the S6/BA/ATSV range is realistic even for an optimistic, GA/walk-up friendly scenario

 

Probably leaning towards the GOTG3, Flash, and Indy 5 combo, with others scattered in to fill voids, but not really too confident in the precision of that grouping

Only have Indy 5 numbers but I will add that comp. Like you said, transition period

 

also, note taken about Wish Wednesday, I like that idea. The Paw Patrol comp will work better there too since that had no previews (not a great comp, different age groups and that’s a popular IP, but I like it better than comping it with Wish’s Tuesday which is what I was going to do). I’ll probably end up counting up all three: Saturday, Tuesday, and Wednesday for Wish

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-12):

 

716 tickets sold at 10 Houston AMC's/+12 YD

 

It has sold 266 tickets after the first 24 hours worth of sales or a 59.1% increase in last 17 days, i assume that % is much higher for other comic book movies between D-29 and D-12

Edited October 28, 2023 by Giorno

[Hilts]

On 10/27/2023 at 8:53 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-17	21	173	18	567	32,650	1.74%	3.28%
T-16	21	173	12	579	32,650	1.77%	2.12%
T-15	21	173	6	585	32,650	1.79%	1.04%
T-14	21	173	6	591	32,650	1.81%	1.03%
T-13	21	173	13	604	32,650	1.85%	2.20%
MTC1	8	59	+5	310	10,485	2.96%	1.64%
MTC2	4	48	+2	78	8,204	0.95%	2.63%
MTC3	3	39	+4	162	8,077	2.01%	2.53%
Other	6	27	+2	54	5,884	0.92%	3.85%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.649x	=	$4.67m
Barbie					0.336x	=	$7.45m
Oppenheimer					0.626x	=	$6.57m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.918x	=	$8.08m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.942x	=	$10.88m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.575x	=	$5.92m

 

Comp average: $7.26m

 

FNaF now properly added. Hopefully on the up from here (all comps down again though).

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-16	21	173	12	579	32,650	1.77%	2.12%
T-15	21	173	6	585	32,650	1.79%	1.04%
T-14	21	173	6	591	32,650	1.81%	1.03%
T-13	21	173	13	604	32,650	1.85%	2.20%
T-12	21	173	24	628	32,650	1.92%	3.97%
MTC1	8	59	+13	323	10,485	3.08%	4.19%
MTC2	4	48	+7	85	8,204	1.04%	8.97%
MTC3	3	39	+4	166	8,077	2.06%	2.47%
Other	6	27	0	54	5,884	0.92%	0.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.650x	=	$4.68m
Barbie					0.333x	=	$7.39m
Oppenheimer					0.600x	=	$6.30m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.929x	=	$8.18m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.815x	=	$10.16m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.569x	=	$5.86m

 

Comp average: $7.10m

 

Better day but comps still dropped slightly.

[Hilts]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

With FNAF behind us, I was starting to work up the preview chart for Marvels, and (surprisingly) ran into a problem of comps. Part of that is we are in a transition period with trackers, having lost some and gained new ones, which  limits the data set.

 

I know the defacto choice is GOTG3, but I only have data from three active trackers before T-8, one being MTC1 which for technical difficulties isn't being updated regularly for Marvels. But beyond that, I'm not sure that's the right pace comp anyway, given the disparity in volume and time of year.

This is data from Sacto, showing the mutiplier from the T-14 and T-7 checkpoints to final value for several plausible comps:

 

Title	T-14 Multi	T-7 Multi	Th Gross
AMWQ	2.20	1.75	$17.0
BPWF	2.38	1.93	$28.0
Thor L&T	2.59	2.05	$29.0
Batman	2.88	2.27	$21.3
GOTG3	2.93	2.32	$17.5
FNAF	3.44	2.38	$10.3
Eternals	3.21	2.42	$9.5
Indy 5	3.79	2.65	$17.0
JWD	4.23	2.82	$18.0
Fast X	4.20	2.97	$7.5
Flash	4.27	3.02	$9.7
Scream VI	4.78	3.11	$5.7
Black Adam	4.93	3.22	$7.6
ATSV	4.91	3.22	$17.3

 

 

I personally think GOTG3, despite its great final week, it too low, as even Eternals with its terrible reviews still had a better growth rate than even GOTG3! [Possible COVID and/or Halloween factors there though] But the issue lies in that its a bit of dead zone above, with only Indy 5, which also had an atypical metro/rural market skew and probably wouldn't give the greatest values even if pace were mostly correct.

 

And then you jump up into the more walk-up heavy films (JWD is understated here, as reviews absolutely killed it in Sacto relative to other markets), so I suppose Flash? Given the frontloaded sales of even weaker MCU, I'm not sure the S6/BA/ATSV range is realistic even for an optimistic, GA/walk-up friendly scenario

 

Probably leaning towards the GOTG3, Flash, and Indy 5 combo, with others scattered in to fill voids, but not really too confident in the precision of that grouping

 

Hey, as always this is great.

 

I have Indy 5 as $7.2m Thu, just wondering if that impacts any of your thoughts but I get this is mainly looking at the multis.

 

(AMWQ is $17.5m but no biggie)

 

[keysersoze123]

I will get previews for both MTC today unless it does not work :-). MTC2 takes ages to finish and my last run was on 17th night and it finished at 16671. Not thinking its going to move the needle that much in 10 1/2 days later. Problem delaying premier/social media reactions wont help. i still think they should do fan shows next week like what they did for Guardians 3. 

 

MTC1 was at 45171 as on 24th evening and it was coasting at that point. its still around 20% under Eternals but with better ATP. Guardians 24hr PS was at 68696 and this movie wont hit that number until final week based on pace and lack of catalysts. Friday also looks incredibly weak(23437 as of 10/21) and I thought it will do better due to veterans day boost. Let us see if we  are seeing any boost. 

[Zakiyyah6]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I will get previews for both MTC today unless it does not work :-). MTC2 takes ages to finish and my last run was on 17th night and it finished at 16671. Not thinking its going to move the needle that much in 10 1/2 days later. Problem delaying premier/social media reactions wont help. i still think they should do fan shows next week like what they did for Guardians 3. 

 

MTC1 was at 45171 as on 24th evening and it was coasting at that point. its still around 20% under Eternals but with better ATP. Guardians 24hr PS was at 68696 and this movie wont hit that number until final week based on pace and lack of catalysts. Friday also looks incredibly weak(23437 as of 10/21) and I thought it will do better due to veterans day boost. Let us see if we  are seeing any boost. 

But what if they do fan screenings and fans don't like it? What if the film just sucks? 

[Porthos]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

But what if they do fan screenings and fans don't like it? What if the film just sucks? 

 

Then it keeps at its current pace as it'd be hard for it do worse.

 

(not impossible, but certainly hard)

[jeffthehat]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

With FNAF behind us, I was starting to work up the preview chart for Marvels, and (surprisingly) ran into a problem of comps. Part of that is we are in a transition period with trackers, having lost some and gained new ones, which  limits the data set.

 

I know the defacto choice is GOTG3, but I only have data from three active trackers before T-8, one being MTC1 which for technical difficulties isn't being updated regularly for Marvels. But beyond that, I'm not sure that's the right pace comp anyway, given the disparity in volume and time of year.

This is data from Sacto, showing the mutiplier from the T-14 and T-7 checkpoints to final value for several plausible comps:

 

Title	T-14 Multi	T-7 Multi	Th Gross
AMWQ	2.20	1.75	$17.0
BPWF	2.38	1.93	$28.0
Thor L&T	2.59	2.05	$29.0
Batman	2.88	2.27	$21.3
GOTG3	2.93	2.32	$17.5
FNAF	3.44	2.38	$10.3
Eternals	3.21	2.42	$9.5
Indy 5	3.79	2.65	$17.0
JWD	4.23	2.82	$18.0
Fast X	4.20	2.97	$7.5
Flash	4.27	3.02	$9.7
Scream VI	4.78	3.11	$5.7
Black Adam	4.93	3.22	$7.6
ATSV	4.91	3.22	$17.3

 

 

I personally think GOTG3, despite its great final week, it too low, as even Eternals with its terrible reviews still had a better growth rate than even GOTG3! [Possible COVID and/or Halloween factors there though] But the issue lies in that its a bit of dead zone above, with only Indy 5, which also had an atypical metro/rural market skew and probably wouldn't give the greatest values even if pace were mostly correct.

 

And then you jump up into the more walk-up heavy films (JWD is understated here, as reviews absolutely killed it in Sacto relative to other markets), so I suppose Flash? Given the frontloaded sales of even weaker MCU, I'm not sure the S6/BA/ATSV range is realistic even for an optimistic, GA/walk-up friendly scenario

 

Probably leaning towards the GOTG3, Flash, and Indy 5 combo, with others scattered in to fill voids, but not really too confident in the precision of that grouping

 

Great breakdown as always. Are you concerned at all about current pace? Seems like it's been dropping against every comp lately. I assume that's a bad omen for its T-14/ T-7 multi. But as a newbie I'm wrong a lot. Basically wondering why GOTG3/Eternals-like should be expected from here when pace has seemed so poor. 

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

But what if they do fan screenings and fans don't like it? What if the film just sucks? 

If they dont do it, its cooked for sure. This way may be the MCU fan base who ensured huge OD presales for sequels over past 2 years and have decided to not to do so for the Marvels, could at least check it out. If not this movie has to hope for good WOM and reasonably strong legs. Its not getting open market that MCU sequels got for a long time. its losing Imax and PLF to Hunger Games prequel/spin off in its 2nd weekend !!

 

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Then it keeps at its current pace as it'd be hard for it do worse.

 

(not impossible, but certainly hard)

This. not doing at this point is not an option unless they just want to ride this out.  

 

Only other catalyst could be a big premier and cast doing late night talk show rounds once(hopefully) SAG strike is resolved in next few days. I am just hoping that SAG gets a good deal and 2024 is not screwed. 

[Zakiyyah6]

I think we all want the strike to be over.

[M37]

2 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Hey, as always this is great.

 

I have Indy 5 as $7.2m Thu, just wondering if that impacts any of your thoughts but I get this is mainly looking at the multis.

 

(AMWQ is $17.5m but no biggie)

 

Those were just typos, but thank you