The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon496]

3 hours ago, Halberstram said:

What are the odds that we have not one, not two, not three, but 4 superheroes movie under $100M DOM

20%-ish. 

Edited November 21, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Halberstram]

3 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

20%-ish. It would require some awful legs from Aquaman but honestly if it's bad people will just stay at home.

$30M OW with 3x multi

[MovieMan89]

I swear, if Paul King didn’t give us another Paddington delight with Wonka, it will be the biggest missed opportunity imaginable right now. The way that will destroy everything if it’s that good with audiences begging for anything appealing this holiday… probably 400+. 

[Arlborn]

8 minutes ago, Halberstram said:

What are the odds that we have not one, not two, not three, but 4 superheroes movie under $100M DOM

Not sure about the odds, but OW would need to be under 22M for that to happen imho, so keep an eye on this thread for the next weeks to find out I guess

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Halberstram said:

$30M OW with 3x multi

 

Virtually impossible due to the holidays:

 

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Presuming you mean from OW, I'm sorry, but there's just (virtually) no way that can happen. The calendar itself is going to both depress the OW and backload the business, not just from XMas Eve on Sunday, but with a whole lot of last minute shopping taking precedence before that

 

The last time we had this calendar configuration (2017), here are some relevant multis from the 12/22-24 weekend

• Pitch Perfect 3 = 5.26x
• Downsizing = 4.94x
• Father Figures = 5.32x
• Last Jedi = 4.52x (second weekend)
• Wed openings Jumanji WTJ (11.2x) and Showman (19.8x LOL)

By default, any film opening on 12/22 will find itself at a minimum of 2.25x by the end of that Christmas week (12/28), and even it drops over 60% the following week, still already in 3x range by end of week 2, with a long January runway to add to the total. For a somewhat more fair comparison, these films all made at least 1.92x their first full week, where as Aquaman was 2.44x.

 

I've been penciling in 5x OW as the baseline (and 2x OWeek), and though it might not get all the way to those values, it shouldn't miss by much, certainly not to sub-4x OW range

 

[Kon]

2 hours ago, dallas said:

I'm glad that we're already saying that it's over after like 3 hours of sales 🙄 

Well, people saying it's over after like 3 hours of sales for The Marvels were right. 🤔

 

Seriously, I think we all know some days need to pass before a real conclusion could be predicted.

[Hilts]

I like to give 24+ hours before first posting numbers, I know other trackers can give earlier indications but just don't see the volume that early in my particular market to provide any kind of accuracy since it's not as presale heavy.

 

Very early look though is that Migration is dead quiet, not surprising since Wish is out tomorrow, not sure who's bright idea it was to start now, probably won't see much action here for a bit. Aquaman should beat out Blue Beetle (closer than I expected though) but not expecting it to get close to FNAF, Marvels or Hunger Games for example. So something in between which seems to align with the rest of the thread. Full updates tomorrow.

[Mulder]

Aquaman 2'll have holiday legs to help it, but I also think at the same time we have to realize with the constant reshoots and a 200 million budget, anything under 150 for it won't be great, especially if international doesn't show up for it the way it did last time.

[HummingLemon496]

Aquaman 2 over or under Bullet Train opening weekend?

[TheFlatLannister]

4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

i should have the first update posted around 7pm EST 

 

things to watch out for during my update (if its sold over 2k tickets that’s excellent, if its sold under 1k tickets 🚨🚨)

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	103	78	338	12229	2.76

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		15	N/A	4.44
MTC1:		119	N/A	35.21
Marcus:		117	N/A	34.62
Alamo:		7	N/A	2.07
Other chains:		102	N/A	30.18

 

Tuesday Comps:

1.2x Haunted Mansion (THU): $3.73 Million

Paw Patrol (FRI): Missed

1.71x Trolls: Band Together: $2.22 Million

 

Average: $2.975 Million

 

78 new tickets sold over two days is pretty bad, but weekend period always messes with final days growth. Really keen to see tomorrow's jump.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	103	93	431	12229	3.52

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		32	17	7.42
MTC1:		134	15	31.09
Marcus:		150	33	34.8
Alamo:		12	5	2.78
Other chains:		147	45	34.11

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	27.51
3-Day:	65.77

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.03x Haunted Mansion (THU): $3.2 Million (47%, 115%)

0.2x Paw Patrol (FRI): $1.33 Million (N/A, 153%)

1.67x Trolls: Band Together: $2.17 Million (30%, 101%)

 

Average: $2.23 Million

 

What a horrendous final week, especially at MTC. I doubled checked my counts because I could not believe that it only sold 15 tickets at all 5 MTC1 locations. It ends up having a very similar % to Trolls in terms of MTC1, which I believe underindexed there if I remember correctly, so @keysersoze123, if it is happening in other markets, you might want to take that into account

 

No final numbers tomorrow, so if we take ATP into account (which I don't like doing much, adjusting comps that is, but I have no usable Tuesday comp sadly), let's go with a final prediciton of $1.75 Million, +/- 0.25. Reviews really hit this hard I think

[vafrow]

5 hours ago, vafrow said:

As of noon, still no Aquaman or Migration tickets on sale for Cineplex. But Aquaman is for sale at Landmark Cinemas.

 

 

 

Still nothing on either film on Cineplex.

 

Often films start ticket sales differently than the US, but not usually for the big superhero films.

 

Plus, with a competing chain having it for sale with Landmark, it makes it even more odd. They'd be surrendering advance sales to them.

 

That said, I checked the Landmark locations in my broader radius, and no sales across four locations.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

Running the scraper one more time because lmao

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	103	93	431	12229	3.52

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		32	17	7.42
MTC1:		134	15	31.09
Marcus:		150	33	34.8
Alamo:		12	5	2.78
Other chains:		147	45	34.11

 

 

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	27.51
3-Day:	65.77

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.03x Haunted Mansion (THU): $3.2 Million (47%, 115%)

0.2x Paw Patrol (FRI): $1.33 Million (N/A, 153%)

1.67x Trolls: Band Together: $2.17 Million (30%, 101%)

 

Average: $2.23 Million

 

What a horrendous final week, especially at MTC. I doubled checked my counts because I could not believe that it only sold 15 tickets at all 5 MTC1 locations. It ends up having a very similar % to Trolls in terms of MTC1, which I believe underindexed there if I remember correctly, so @keysersoze123, if it is happening in other markets, you might want to take that into account

 

No final numbers tomorrow, so if we take ATP into account (which I don't like doing much, adjusting comps that is, but I have no usable Tuesday comp sadly), let's go with a final prediciton of $1.75 Million, +/- 0.25. Reviews really hit this hard I think

Guessing 40m five day might be touch and go.

[MovieMan89]

I’m honestly not sure Wish is doing much better than Strange World at this point overall. The reviews are getting very alarming since we almost never see major animation studio fare go this low on RT (a select few DWA ones from the last decade are the only ones coming to mind). 

[Relevation]

4 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	103	93	431	12229	3.52

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		32	17	7.42
MTC1:		134	15	31.09
Marcus:		150	33	34.8
Alamo:		12	5	2.78
Other chains:		147	45	34.11

 

 

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	27.51
3-Day:	65.77

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.03x Haunted Mansion (THU): $3.2 Million (47%, 115%)

0.2x Paw Patrol (FRI): $1.33 Million (N/A, 153%)

1.67x Trolls: Band Together: $2.17 Million (30%, 101%)

 

Average: $2.23 Million

 

What a horrendous final week, especially at MTC. I doubled checked my counts because I could not believe that it only sold 15 tickets at all 5 MTC1 locations. It ends up having a very similar % to Trolls in terms of MTC1, which I believe underindexed there if I remember correctly, so @keysersoze123, if it is happening in other markets, you might want to take that into account

 

No final numbers tomorrow, so if we take ATP into account (which I don't like doing much, adjusting comps that is, but I have no usable Tuesday comp sadly), let's go with a final prediciton of $1.75 Million, +/- 0.25. Reviews really hit this hard I think

Yeah I can’t defend it, that’s really bad growth over the last 3 days even factoring in the weekend depression and EA. Maybe this will just end up around Encanto numbers after all huh

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Napoleon (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	62	200	606	8960	6.76

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		368	92	60.73
MTC1:		264	69	43.56
Marcus:		148	53	24.42
Alamo:		54	8	8.91
Other chains:		140	70	23.1

 

Comps:

0.68x KOFM: $1.76 Million

1.66x The Creator (THU): $2.25 Million

0.16x Oppy: $1.66 Million

0.34x MI7 (just TUE): $2.39 Million

 

Average: $2.01 Million

 

I have been fooled by movies like these (male-oriented, awards-hopeful, historical epic movies like KOFM and Oppy) overperforming in this market, but the fact that it keeps rising against those, as well as MI7 which was also a Tuesday release, is a pretty good sign.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Napoleon (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	63	305	911	9032	10.09

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		511	143	56.09
MTC1:		362	98	39.74
Marcus:		246	98	27
Alamo:		66	12	7.24
Other chains:		237	97	26.02

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	50.33
3-Day:	124.38

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.83x KOFM: $2.15 Million (23%, 64%)

The Creator (THU): Missed

0.19x Oppy: $1.98 Million (25%, 80%)

0.4x MI7 (TUE): $2.78 Million (29%, 69%)

 

Average: $2.3 Million

 

The polar opposite on Wish, at least in this market. Outstanding final week and day. MI7 summer walk-ups are obviously different than this will have tomorrow, and the others should be adjusted for ATP, but I can't help but feel optimistic looking at those growth rates, especially compared to something like Killers. Let's go with $2 Million, +/- 0.2.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Relevation said:

Yeah I can’t defend it, that’s really bad growth over the last 3 days even factoring in the weekend depression and EA. Maybe this will just end up around Encanto numbers after all huh

I don’t think Encanto is happening unless there is so drastic critic/audience split here. Sub 50% for Disney animation is almost unheard of. Only Cars 2 in fact from the past 15 years (which is Pixar not WDAS). 

[Mulder]

I feel like Wish getting poor reviews torpedo'd it. I know usually reviews don't matter for animated fare, but I feel like Disney's rep has taken such a beating that those reviews do matter. Maybe if the GA who does see it ends up liking it, it can pull a mini-Elemental run but that's a big if.

[Relevation]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don’t think Encanto is happening unless there is so drastic critic/audience split here. Sub 50% for Disney animation is almost unheard of. Only Cars 2 in fact from the past 15 years (which is Pixar not WDAS). 

Hey and what do you know Cars 2 has even worse reviews than Wish and yet it has an A- CinemaScore