The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not convinced they are subs. It sold most of its tickets in 1st few days of presales and that is too early for subs to come in considering how many movies have released during that time period. Plus its core audience is not the subs type. 

 

True.  And I checked - AMC excluded it, so this just probably is AMC's city and demo skew...and their better advertising to fans at the start.

 

Edit to Add: And since this movie is excluded, it's gonna have an even harder walk up sell than all the other things working against it.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Taylor89]

35 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

True.  And I checked - AMC excluded it, so this just probably is AMC's city and demo skew...and their better advertising to fans at the start.

 

Edit to Add: And since this movie is excluded, it's gonna have an even harder walk up sell than all the other things working against it.  

 

Oh poor walkups you think? I thought it would have more walkups since her fans pull up in last minute

[JimmyB]

Deadline is saying: We hear that presales for Renaissance are behind that of Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story ($10.5M in 2021) and slightly ahead of that of that year’s In the Heights ($11.5M), all compared before their opening weekends. 

 

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/27/2023 at 6:10 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Godzilla Minus One (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	34	16	280	4608	6.08
Wednesday Nov 29 EA: 12 theaters	22	34	721	4962	14.53
TOTALS:	56	50	1001	9570	10.46

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		754	34	75.32
MTC1:		527	23	52.65
Marcus:		144	7	14.39
Alamo:		148	9	14.79
Other chains:		182	11	18.18

 

Comps (Thursday only) :

0.36x KOFM: $950k

0.96x The Creator: $1.3 Million

0.085x Oppenheimer: $895k

0.55x Napoleon: $1.66 Million

 

Average: $1.2 Million

 

Early Access Comp:

0.62x Barbie EA: ~$680k

 

Not looking like a great final week, but let's see. With Napoleon's big jumps the average might dip out under a million tomorrow.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Godzilla Minus One (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	37	38	318	5093	6.24
Wednesday Nov 29 EA: 12 theaters	21	66	787	4776	16.48
TOTALS:	58	104	1105	9869	11.2

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		825	71	74.66
MTC1:		583	56	52.76
Marcus:		156	12	14.12
Alamo:		167	19	15.11
Other chains:		199	17	18.01

 

Comps (Thursday only) :

0.36x KOFM: $925k

0.87x The Creator: $1.18 Million

0.0828x Oppenheimer: $870k

0.52x Napoleon: $1.57 Million

 

Average: $1.14 Million

 

Early Access Comp:

0.67x Barbie EA: ~$730k

 

Keeps slipping, but I can see the EA hitting $1 million, it's really strong.

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/27/2023 at 6:14 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	41	27	1196	6882	17.38

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		990	18	82.78
MTC1:		994	20	83.11
Marcus:		61	-1	5.1
Alamo:		13	1	1.09
Other chains:		128	7	10.7

 

Unadjusted Comp:

0.0862x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $2.99 Million

 

Adjusted* Comp: $3.59 Million

*Adjusted 20% up from other trackers, I do not track ATP so this is not specific to my area

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	40	30	1226	6760	18.14

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1000	10	81.57
MTC1:		1003	9	81.81
Marcus:		63	2	5.14
Alamo:		13	0	1.06
Other chains:		147	19	11.99

 

Unadjusted Comp:

0.0869x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $3.02 Million

 

Adjusted* Comp: $3.62 Million

*Adjusted 20% up from other trackers, I do not track ATP so this is not specific to my area

 

Maybe $4 million in previews? Those non-MTC1 numbers are horrible though

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/27/2023 at 6:16 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

The Shift (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	33	4	125	2668	4.69
Wednesday EA: 7 theaters	7	2	10	615	1.63
TOTALS:	40	6	135	3283	4.11

 

Comps:

2.87x Journey to Bethlehem: $715k

0.71x After Death: $285k

 

Average: $500k

 

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

The Shift (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	38	18	143	2987	4.79
Wednesday EA: 6 theaters	6	19	29	537	5.4
TOTALS:	44	37	172	3524	4.88

 

Comps:

2.57x Journey to Bethlehem: $640k

0.74x After Death: $300k

 

Average: $470k

Looking like it will converge somewhere in the 400-500 range, probably $4-7 million OW.

 

Posting my updates later than usual but the numbers were counted at the regular time!

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
158	1572	31688	5.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-57

315

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

T-2 

0.129x of TET $4.82M

 

That is just horrendous pace omg. 25% growth over 55 days. I couldn't believe it so I looked at my numbers out of curiosity and it went from T-56 (day 4, first day I tracked it) to T-2: 785 --> 1226, which is 56% growth. A bit better but still not great...

 

THEN I went and checked TET out of curiosity and from day 4 of its run (T-39) to T-2: 10213 --> 14107, which is 38% growth.

 

All a matter of perspective I guess  

[BOfficeStats]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

The Abyss has racked up pretty impressive sales at some theaters near me

How do they compare to Titanic's 2023 re-release?

Edited November 29, 2023 by BOfficeStats

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

https://deadline.com/2023/11/hunger-games-ballad-of-songbirds-and-snakes-box-office-100m-1235642112/

 

Deadline just included some spicy zingers about Renaissance's "very low" pre-sales and BO outlook for the upcoming weekend in the linked article ostensibly about Hunger Games BoSS crossing the $100 M mark domestically: 

 

"While industry sources expect Songbirds & Snakes to decline -55% in its third weekend for a 3-day gross around $13M, don’t count the movie’s momentum out even though AMC’s Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce is arriving in theaters. The latter pic’s presales are very low, in the vicinity of West Side Story and In the Heights, so it wouldn’t be shocking if Songbirds & Snakes wins No. 1 for a third time in a row. Don’t put all your chips on Beyonce. Expectations for the concert-documentary movie have dropped down to $15M on the low-end, and it could be lower."

[tdangie]

6 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

https://deadline.com/2023/11/hunger-games-ballad-of-songbirds-and-snakes-box-office-100m-1235642112/

 

Deadline just included some spicy zingers about Renaissance's "very low" pre-sales and BO outlook for the upcoming weekend in the linked article ostensibly about Hunger Games BoSS crossing the $100 M mark domestically: 

 

"While industry sources expect Songbirds & Snakes to decline -55% in its third weekend for a 3-day gross around $13M, don’t count the movie’s momentum out even though AMC’s Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce is arriving in theaters. The latter pic’s presales are very low, in the vicinity of West Side Story and In the Heights, so it wouldn’t be shocking if Songbirds & Snakes wins No. 1 for a third time in a row. Don’t put all your chips on Beyonce. Expectations for the concert-documentary movie have dropped down to $15M on the low-end, and it could be lower."

Lionsgate needs a W once in a while. Although I do hope they'll find a new franchise that can be successful besides Hunger Games and John Wick. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Renaissance MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 100231/328357 2523094.00 1686 shows

Friday - 84332/740877 2142481.00 3622 shows 

 

Renaissance MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 102079/337035 2567757.00 1767 shows

Friday - 86787/775940 2203593.00 3819 shows 

 

Still the pace is non existent. 

[keysersoze123]

On 11/19/2023 at 5:42 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews - 10039/446794 183779.03 2096 shows

Friday - 7230/689939 125499.28 3198 shows

 

3 days of data. 

Wonka MTC1 Previews - 13734/469014 251373.86 2215 shows

 

Definitely showing some sign of life today. Its definitely going up from here. 

[Taylor89]

4 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

https://deadline.com/2023/11/hunger-games-ballad-of-songbirds-and-snakes-box-office-100m-1235642112/

 

Deadline just included some spicy zingers about Renaissance's "very low" pre-sales and BO outlook for the upcoming weekend in the linked article ostensibly about Hunger Games BoSS crossing the $100 M mark domestically: 

 

"While industry sources expect Songbirds & Snakes to decline -55% in its third weekend for a 3-day gross around $13M, don’t count the movie’s momentum out even though AMC’s Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce is arriving in theaters. The latter pic’s presales are very low, in the vicinity of West Side Story and In the Heights, so it wouldn’t be shocking if Songbirds & Snakes wins No. 1 for a third time in a row. Don’t put all your chips on Beyonce. Expectations for the concert-documentary movie have dropped down to $15M on the low-end, and it could be lower."

 

 

They read here. lol

[Taylor89]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Taylor89

[PrinceRico]

When should we get the first long range tracking for The Color Purple? Definitely interested in seeing the similarities between this Dreamgirls and Les Mis.

[Porthos]

On 11/28/2023 at 12:14 AM, Porthos said:

 

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	59	8028	8881	853	9.60%

 

Total Net Showings Removed Today	3
Total Net Seats Removed Today	738
Total Net Seats Sold Today	23

 

T-3 Comp:

%

Sold T-3

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Unadj  Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

TET (Fri)

9.38

156

9092

1/205

15480/24572

37.00%

28183

3.03%

3.26m

3.91m

AD-HOC NOTE:  The Ad-hoc comp has been bumped up by 20% above and beyond TET's already inflated ATP to account for the more expensive ticket prices (and lack of kids/seniors tickets) for Renaissance.

 

Percentage of sales versus TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.83874x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.82m] [1.2x adj]

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	61	8079	8967	888	9.90%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	86
Total Seats Sold Today	35

 

T-2 Comp:

%

Sold T-2

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Unadj  Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

TET (Fri)

9.55

211

9303

1/305

26001/35034

26.55%

28183

3.15%

3.31m

3.97m

AD-HOC NOTE:  The Ad-hoc comp has been bumped up by 20% above and beyond TET's already inflated ATP to account for the more expensive ticket prices (and lack of kids/seniors tickets) for Renaissance.

 

Percentage of sales versus TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.83874x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.93m] [1.2x adj]

[lorddemaxus]

9 hours ago, Bob Train said:

The Abyss has racked up pretty impressive sales at some theaters near me

Thank you for reminding me to book tickets for it 

[joaqs]

The stan wars after the Beyoncé concert bombs are gonna be ruthless.

[Taylor89]

30 minutes ago, joaqs said:

The stan wars after the Beyoncé concert bombs are gonna be ruthless.

 

Ehh. AMC will realises their strategy will only work on stars with taylor or jb hype. 

[Alexrock727]

Any information about Silent Night? It's opening wide this weekend and looks like it's DOA.