The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Taylor89]

17 hours ago, Wandavisionlover0924 said:

They are not releasing music anytime soon and their tours were never outstanding 

 

Both will release music soon tho and they are very popular.

[filmlover]

Isn't Wonka's review embargo supposed to end today? It's selling like a movie that's going to open in the $25M range near me, where it goes from there will all depend on reviews/WOM.

[keysersoze123]

The Boy and the heron MTC1

Monday Imax - 15832/45227 309068.08 144 shows

Wed early shows - 5011/11000 77124.61 66 shows

Previews - 5979/83871 97740.73 553 shows

Friday -  9669/152950 154080.39 995 shows

 

If I am not wrong it has had limited shows in some big markets for a while. Its hard movie to predict. but with a limited release double digit may not be easy.  

[keysersoze123]

On 11/28/2023 at 10:10 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1 Previews - 13734/469014 251373.86 2215 shows

 

Definitely showing some sign of life today. Its definitely going up from here. 

Wonka MTC1

Previews - 16450/468856 300440.40 2215 shows

Friday - 13571/725352 234677.03 3379 shows

 

its chugging along and its preview to friday presales is considerably better than say SH movies as well. I expect it to have good IM. It should start to accelerate this week.  

[keysersoze123]

On 11/23/2023 at 8:45 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Aquaman 2 MTC1 previews(T-28) - 12893/502693 257201.85 2569 shows +762

 

 

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews - 17604/506813 349577.30 2593 shows

Friday - 9891/724239 185096.33 3733 shows

 

It should beat Shazam and Blue Beetle in previews fairly easily.  

[reddevil19]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It should beat Shazam and Blue Beetle in previews fairly easily.  

 

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Isn't Wonka's review embargo supposed to end today? It's selling like a movie that's going to open in the $25M range near me, where it goes from there will all depend on reviews/WOM.

Reviews in little over 5 hours 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Isn't Wonka's review embargo supposed to end today? It's selling like a movie that's going to open in the $25M range near me, where it goes from there will all depend on reviews/WOM.

I think Wonka is going to be big here in the UK. Wouldn’t be surprised if it was the equivalent of a $70-80m opener. 

[M37]

On 11/6/2023 at 2:18 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews - 24796/344720 479103.98 1829 shows +2138

Friday - 21627/498422 404591.65 2600 shows

 

Previews was for 21 hours or so. Its not bad but nothing crazy on pace. Let me see if I can get 24 hour run tomorrow. Friday relative to Thursday is quite good. 

47 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews - 16450/468856 300440.40 2215 shows

Friday - 13571/725352 234677.03 3379 shows

 

its chugging along and its preview to friday presales is considerably better than say SH movies as well. I expect it to have good IM. It should start to accelerate this week.  

Quote

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 13000/35113 280224.52 154 shows

Previews(T-10) - 43319/911893 753714.79 5564 shows +2522

Friday - 43892/1036803 733174.58 5718 shows

 

Wonka's Fri/Thu sales ratio is slightly below HG:BoSS at same checkpoint (0.83 vs 0.87), and far away from TLM (basically 1.0), though the former had been on sale less than a week. Also Wonka should have a better Saturday increase than a pure YA film, unless the GA just isn't interested (at least for OW).  But again IMO points to an IM around 8x rather than closer to 10x

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

 

Wonka's Fri/Thu sales ratio is slightly below HG:BoSS at same checkpoint (0.83 vs 0.87), and far away from TLM (basically 1.0), though the former had been on sale less than a week. Also Wonka should have a better Saturday increase than a pure YA film, unless the GA just isn't interested (at least for OW).  But again IMO points to an IM around 8x rather than closer to 10x

IM indicates little about the longevity. Wonder what has changed because in pre-Covid, the IM of the OW is a great indicator of a long leggy run ahead. In post-Covid, this seem not working. The latest example being HG: BOSS which has a 7.75x ($44.6m/5.75m) IM, a nothing special IM but turns out legging out very good.  

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

IM indicates little about the longevity. Wonder what has changed because in pre-Covid, the IM of the OW is a great indicator of a long leggy run ahead. In post-Covid, this seem not working. The latest example being HG: BOSS which has a 7.75x ($44.6m/5.75m) IM, a nothing special IM but turns out legging out very good.  

Too much of the moviegoing audience has just disappeared, just from taking a look at the current state of the box office.

 

We're probably never seeing another The Greatest Showman type of run in the post-COVID climate (then again, the next surprise hit like that will have to carve out its own path, instead of being predicted to follow in the footsteps of another movie). And tbh, that movie probably wouldn't have had nearly as leggy a run today as it did in late '17/early '18 when extended theatrical windows were still widely common and not the product of a bygone era that they are now.

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Too much of the moviegoing audience has just disappeared, just from taking a look at the current state of the box office.

 

We're probably never seeing another The Greatest Showman type of run in the post-COVID climate (then again, the next surprise hit like that will have to carve out its own path, instead of being predicted to follow in the footsteps of another movie). And tbh, that movie probably wouldn't have had nearly as leggy a run today as it did in late '17/early '18 when extended theatrical windows were still widely common and not the product of a bygone era that they are now.

I thought we just had PIB2 last year?

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Too much of the moviegoing audience has just disappeared, just from taking a look at the current state of the box office.

 

We're probably never seeing another The Greatest Showman type of run in the post-COVID climate (then again, the next surprise hit like that will have to carve out its own path, instead of being predicted to follow in the footsteps of another movie). And tbh, that movie probably wouldn't have had nearly as leggy a run today as it did in late '17/early '18 when extended theatrical windows were still widely common and not the product of a bygone era that they are now.

 

Moviepass was powerful...3M+ subscribers during that window...

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

I thought we just had PIB2 last year?

True, but that was helped by both a completely barren marketplace for family films for months and (perhaps more importantly) turning out to be a far better movie than anyone expected it to be.

[M37]

30 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

IM indicates little about the longevity. Wonder what has changed because in pre-Covid, the IM of the OW is a great indicator of a long leggy run ahead. In post-Covid, this seem not working. The latest example being HG: BOSS which has a 7.75x ($44.6m/5.75m) IM, a nothing special IM but turns out legging out very good.  

I don’t entirely disagree, but I wouldn’t go as far to say “indicates little”, but rather it’s just a lot more nuanced. My big picture view is that we’ve lost a lot more of casual GA, the Sat & Sun crowd, but the Thur & Fri crowd remains strong, and that dynamic can mess with IMs a fair amount.

 

HG:BoSS was always going to have a solid Thu/Fri fanbase audience, so a lower IM, but that it didn’t fall down in CBM territory was a positive indicator. Not to the degree that would suggest the run that has followed, but I also think it’s benefitting from a fairly weak market outside of more niche product, being “good enough” rather than “great” and getting an immediate OW boost like say Godzilla

[keysersoze123]

FYI all the data I posted are from yesterday. Wonka was late afternoon PST and Aquaman was after that. Heron I got it late evening. 

[Bob Train]

49 minutes ago, filmlover said:

True, but that was helped by both a completely barren marketplace for family films for months and (perhaps more importantly) turning out to be a far better movie than anyone expected it to be.

Seems like a reach to suggest there will never be another Greatest Showman-type movie ever when Puss 2 turned a $12m 3-day into $185m DOM, and there have been other surprisingly leggy runs like TGM, Avatar 2, Sound of Freedom etc.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Seems like a reach to suggest there will never be another Greatest Showman-type movie ever when Puss 2 turned a $12m 3-day into $185m DOM, and there have been other surprisingly leggy runs like TGM, Avatar 2, Sound of Freedom etc.

I'm not including Sound of Freedom among the other movies when it clearly drew a crowd that otherwise wants nothing to do with Hollywood or movie theaters (don't expect the industry to try and cater to its demo knowing that). 

 

Obviously there are still some leggy runs, but those are clearly very much the exceptions in a "feast or famine" environment, which has seemed more true in 2023 than it did in 2022 (where even then you had more variety among the mid-level movies that caught on, which were in short supply this year).

Edited December 4, 2023 by filmlover

[JustLurking]

I'm a bit surprised Wonka isn't doing better looking at presales around me in Italy. I feel like this will be a breakout in Europe compared to DOM but maybe I'm wrong, idk.

[M37]

48 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Seems like a reach to suggest there will never be another Greatest Showman-type movie ever when Puss 2 turned a $12m 3-day into $185m DOM, and there have been other surprisingly leggy runs like TGM, Avatar 2, Sound of Freedom etc.

To put these runs into perspective, here are the multipliers vs the respective 3-day and 5-day openings:

 

Jumanji WTJ = 11.2x, 7.66x

Puss in Boots = 14.92x, 10.0x

Showman = 19.8x, 13.0x 

 

PiB was ~33% better than JWTJ, and Showman was ~30% better than PiB. I’ve mentioned this before, but Showman’s Jan/Feb grosses as compared to its December baseline is comparable to only Avatar. To say there will be another Showman-like run is essentially to say there will be another Avatar run, which - while never say never - is certainly not something I would hold out hope to happen in the current market