The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Grand Cine]

I search a date for the embargo for Color Purple and a people said about the non nomination of the movie in Golden Globes and he said that the real critics will maybe not be good as the social reaction

 

I have a question it's me or it's just my impression but since the barbenheimer the critics are less positive than before

Edited December 13, 2023 by Grand Cine

[ringedmortality]

14 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I have a question it's me or it's just my impression but since the barbenheimer the critics are less positive than before

 

Many of the movies that premiered at Fall fests received positive reviews so that's not true.

[Brainbug]

16 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I have a question it's me or it's just my impression but since the barbenheimer the critics are less positive than before

 

This is a question/post that belongs to the thread of The Color Purple. This thread here is reserved for box office tracking discussion and presales information, its not a discussion thread for other topics like critic reviews

[Relevation]

2 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

I saw the last movie to open at Christmas day :

 

American Underdog (2021) : 4,2m OD , 26,5M final (x6,3)

Journal for Jordan (2021) : 1,4M OD , 6,4M final (x4,8)

WW1984 (2020) : 7,5M OD , 46,8M Final (x6,2)

News of the World (2020) : 1M OD , 12M Final (x12)

Spies in Disguise (2019) : 4,8M OD , 66,8M Final ( x13,9)

Little Woman (2019) : 6,4M OD , 108,1M Final (x16,9)

Uncle Gems (2019) , 5,9M First day on Wide release , 47,9M Final without the money on limited release (x8,1)

Holmes and Watson (2018) : 6,4M OD , 30,6M Final (x4,8)

Vice (2018) : 4,8M OD , 47,8M Final (x9,9)

All The Money of the World (2017) : 2,6M OD , 25,1M OD (x9,7)

 

I see than more the movie has a bigger fall , less he has bigger multi , i think if Color People open with around 20M OD  , the movie will have a X6 so i think maybe a 120M US Box office

 

Ok so like, looking at this and being extremely confident that The Color Purple will get an A+ CinemaScore (black led likely acclaimed Christmas crowd-pleaser with a primarily religious  demographic - synthesis of A+ CinemaScore movies Till, Into the Spider-Verse, The Woman King, Hidden Figures, and all the Christian religious movies) …Why can’t TCP go to $200M DOM?

 

Like, it’s not gonna replicate the super low multis of Holmes and Watson, Uncut Gems, Vice, All the Money in the World, and WW84 because it won’t have shit WoM and it won’t be frontloaded like American Underdog because it isn’t opening on a Saturday which will hugely inflate sales. (This is also why Ali and Fences don’t work as comps because they didn’t really stick the landing on WoM with a B+ and A- respectively)

 

That already sets the range at 12-17x based on just other Christmas Day openers, and the only real worthwhile A+ (and only one above an A-) comp is the highest comp there, Little Women at 16.9x.

 

The Color Purple still has good sales beyond Christmas Day, its TUE after Xmas is pacing ahead of Wonka pure FRI at MTC1 adjusted for release distance.

 

So honestly I just don’t see why we should expect anything under 10x from Christmas Day for TCP unless I’m just off base on WoM and given the comps I used, I don’t really think I am?

 

And with it currently tracking for potentially $20M on Christmas Day, 10.5x to 12.5x as a rough guess would take it to $212-250M DOM which would blow past Wonka and Migration DOM.

 

So,I really feel quite confidently that TCP is winning Dec 2023 and the holiday season as a whole.

 

(Oh and for shits and giggles, that Little Women comp sends it to $338M DOM lol)

[M37]

14 minutes ago, Relevation said:

That already sets the range at 12-17x based on just other Christmas Day openers, and the only real worthwhile A+ (and only one above an A-) comp is the highest comp there, Little Women at 16.9x.

Les Mis, musical adaptation, A Cinemascore: 8.22X its Tue Xmas Day opening

 

Little Women is a significant outlier for Xmas day releases, there is no range of 12-17x, very few get to even 11x

[misterpepp]

On 12/7/2023 at 7:09 PM, misterpepp said:

Night Swim on sale Dec 11

 

This technically went on sale yesterday, but only at some smaller chains. Seems like wires are getting crossed again.

[abracadabra1998]

18 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

 

This technically went on sale yesterday, but only at some smaller chains. Seems like wires are getting crossed again.

Yeah, 0/20 theaters I track are selling it at the moment, but it seems like the book of Clarence and the Beekeeper are on sale already

[ChipDerby]

4 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

I search a date for the embargo for Color Purple and a people said about the non nomination of the movie in Golden Globes and he said that the real critics will maybe not be good as the social reaction

 

I have a question it's me or it's just my impression but since the barbenheimer the critics are less positive than before

 

Why on earth would anyone care what a dude named Steve says

[MovieMan89]

I’m starting to think Les Mis unadjusted to Les Mis adjusted could be a great comp range for TCP. 18 Xmas OD, 150 DOM for that. Adjusted would mean about 26m Xmas OD and 200 DOM.  Think that’s the range here. 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 28452/522583 509497.22 2582 shows

Friday - 30261/817559 515485.49 3995 shows

Saturday - 28099/838122 432554.91 4080 shows 

 

Growth for previews is just ok but rest of the weekend is motoring along. 

Wonka MTC1

 

Previews(T-2) - 32659/569913 578832.01 2939 shows

Friday - 37017/955003 622869.73 4960 shows

Saturday - 34077/977165 520276.21 5049 shows

 

Thinking 3.5m previews and low to mid 30s OW with very good walkups over the weekend. 

 

[vale9001]

The colour purple is easily getting mid reviews but if the success is what pre sales are saying still will get the BP nomination like Hidden Figures (with no GG nominees) did. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Wonka Sacramento Report [T-3]

864/23860 (3.62% sold) [+153 tickets] 178 showtimes

 

0.24427x TLM at T-3      [2.52m]
0.19377x AtSV at T-3      [3.36m]
0.43680x RotB at T-3     [3.84m]
0.13145x Barbie at T-3   [2.93m]

0.94015x HM at T-3.       [2.91m]
0.23377x FNAF at T-3    [2.41m]
0.66055x BOSS at T-3   [3.80m]

 

===

 

Haven't been paying enough attention to local comps (i.e. tonight is the first night I pulled any comps since D1) so no real comments about whether this is over or under-performing locally, nor which direction the comps are moving.  Should have a better sense of both tomorrow when I pull T-2 numbers.

 

As such, any real thoughts on how this is doing locally will have to wait 'till then.

 

Quick and Dirty Wonka Sacramento Report [T-2]

1023/26584 (3.85% sold) [+159 tickets] 208 showtimes

1.26452x Shazam 2 at T-2                  [4.30m]
0.25755x TLM at T-2                           [2.65m]
0.18934x AtSV at T-2                          [3.29m]
0.40887x RotB at T-2                          [3.60m]
0.13432x Barbie at T-2                        [3.00m]
0.93596x Haunted Mansion at T-2    [2.90m]
0.24242x FNAF at T-2                         [2.50m]
0.65035x BOSS at T-2                        [3.74m]

 

===

 

Couple things.  Not sayin' theaters are starved for content right now, but... Not seeing any particular reason why Wonka needs 200+ showtimes locally for previews.  Not sayin', but maybe sayin'.

 

Also, yeah, somewhere in the 3s looks pretty likely.  Though it doing less than Haunted Mansion's T-2 pace (Wonka: 159 | HM: 174) isn't exactly a great omen.  OTOH, December is just flatly different than July when it comes to pre-sales, so only so much one can read from said entrails.

 

Either way, the story of this film is gonna be legs/WOM and not Thur Previews.  If cursory glances at Sacto + various markets is any gauge that is.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Expand  

 

Wonka, T-3, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 90

New Sales since last update: 18

Growth: 25%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 12/4

Early Evening: 65/8

Late Evening: 13/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 38/6

VIP: 26/4

IMAX: 20/6

4DX: 6/3

 

Comps

0.279x of HG:BoSS for $1.6M

 

Some good strong growth down the stretch here.  It's still trailing other markets, but getting to a respectable range.

 

Expand  

 

Wonka, T-2, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 119

New Sales since last update: 29

Growth: 32%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 17/4

Early Evening: 85/8

Late Evening: 19/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 48/6

VIP: 35/4

IMAX: 28/6

4DX: 8/3

 

Comps

0.326x of HG:BoSS for $1.9M

0.187x of Marvels for $1.2M

Average: $1.6M

 

Good growth again. I threw in Marvels for a comp, even though Wonka has more capacity for growth over the next 36 hours.

 

One somewhat noteworthy element, is that despite representing a lot more capacity due to auditorium size, IMAX isn't performing well for this title. It's not too surprising, as it's not the type of movie to really drive people to the premium format, but, it might keep ATP down.

[vafrow]

On 12/12/2023 at 5:11 AM, vafrow said:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-10, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 49

New Sales since last update: 11

Growth: 29%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 6/4

Early Evening: 41/8

Late Evening: 2/7

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 7/6

Dolby:  0/1

IMAX: 4/3

IMAX 3D: 18/3

4dx: 0/3

VIP 3D: 2/2

VIP: 18/1

 

Comps

0.130x of The Marvels for $0.9M

0.331x of HG:BoSS for $1.9M

Avg: $1.4M

 

If this continues the 30% growth rate, it won't be an all out disaster. 

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-9, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 69

New Sales since last update: 20

Growth: 41%

Showtimes: 23

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 8/5

Early Evening: 59 /9

Late Evening: 2/9

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 12/6

Dolby:  0/1

IMAX: 10/3

IMAX 3D: 24/3

4dx: 0/3

VIP 3D: 0/2

VIP: 23/1

Regular 3D: 0/3

 

Comps

0.175x of The Marvels for $1.2M

0.385x of HG:BoSS for $2.2M

0.373x of FNAF (day 1) for $3.8M

Avg: $2.4M

 

A few different things to note. Full Thursday sets are up and there was minimal expansion. Only one new screen added, along with a late show on another screen.

 

Growth remains really strong. I think people are finally paying attention to this. It still lags comps, but it's gaining.

 

I did add FNAF as a comp. This was day 1 for FNAF, that had a super short window, so tomorrow will see the comp drop most likely, but, if Aquaman is going to grow at 30% a day, then it might be a useful guide. We'll see if it holds up.

Edited December 13, 2023 by vafrow

[M37]

December Opening Multipliers

I've been referring to these numbers broadly of late, but given some of the general, uh, misconceptions out there, thought it would be good to write it all up as a reference point. Not really tracking related, so burying most of it under spoiler boxes

 

Spoiler

Pre-Pre-Christmas OW [Wonka]

 

The "pre-pre" refers to films opening at least week, but less than 2, before Christmas Day, or Fri 12/12 to 12/18. However, the specific date matters, in that this could be the last shopping weekend before the big day (depressing numbers), and the calendar configuration will also impact when schools are getting out (inflating weekdays). Therefore, felt it was best to use the full Opening Week, rather than just weekend, to help balance out those effects.  

 

Here's how films since 2015 have performed over weeks 2-4 after opening, and the final multiplier vs their full 7-day OWeek

 

Two clear sets of data: the major tentpoles (SW, NWH), making either 2.09x or 2.40x, and the rest (which includes Avatar 2), with all but one finishing at 3.22x to 4.33x from OWeek.   Additionally, once the holidays have passed, there is clear shift based on the normal box office rules of grossing level, WOM, competition, etc, where films like Spider-Verse & Avatar 2 continue to grow (adding more than a full X/OWeek after), and others like Collateral Beauty and Alvin Road Chip mostly peter out

Ferdinand opened in the shadow of TFA, which likely helped to atypically backload its grosses

 

Based on these trajectories, we should expect Wonka to have pulled in ~3x (2.8-3.3) its first week by Thur 1/11, with a chance to add another full X+ after that.

Forecast: ~$35-$45M OWeek, ~4x OWeek (with room to go a bit higher, up to 4.25x)

 

Spoiler

Pre-Christmas Weekend [Aquaman 2, Migration]

 

The closer to Christmas the release, the more relevant the date becomes, so only be focusing on films in years with the same Fri 12/22 date. While we have a handful of openers from 2017, the previous time with this calendar arrangement was 2006, so grain of salt with those comps. Using only the OW, not the full week, here were the respective mutipliers and trajectory (and in the case of TLJ, the second weekend, with Rocky Balboa opening on Wed 12/20)

 

 

Again, see very large divergence after the holidays, with lower level releases like Downsizing and Father Figures pretty much done at that point, while Night at the Museum had a ridiculous post holiday run. The median film in this sample added less than a full OW following the post-holiday week, interestingly far less than the films opening a week before, though the choice of release date may itself be an indicator of potential legs

 

A lot less certainty here given the data set and range, but should expect a minimum of 4.5x, and I suppose up to 7x for a more backloaded Xmas and strong post-holiday run, mostly likely in/around the 5-5.5x range. Nearly all films in this sample had a 2-2.5x OWeek, so the final total should become mostly clear by the end of that first week, depending on how soft the OW vs backloaded for Christmas Day and ensuing weekdays.

 

Based on current pre-sales (for which data is limited, and subject to change next week)

Aquaman = $20M+ OW, ~$100M-$130M total

Migration = OW in Teens (?), around $100M (?)

 

Spoiler

Christmas Day [The Color Purple]

Alright, now the release date which has caused the most, uh, discussion, as the film opening that day is the only one showing real signs of breakout potential. But keep in mind that Christmas Day is an animal unto itself, usually among the highest grossing days of the year, but that can skew films opening on that date

 

For this data set, pulled all Xmas day openings (or wide expansion) since 2015, as well as any film that opened to at least $10M regardless of year. With a few exceptions, there is a fairly clear pattern in the total gross relative to that first day

 

 

On the low end, have a handful of films that made over 15% of their total gross in the first day (and a lot more not included), and only 2 in this sample that managed to break 11x. However, those two are even more outlier-y than shown, to the point I cut them off the chart, at 14.0 and 16.8x respectively. Interestingly, both of these films opened on Xmas 2019, so I suspect it has more to do with some quirk of that year (seat allocation? weather impact?) than any new trend. They also dropped just 6% and 13% from Xmas to Boxing Day, which is very low for a weekday Xmas, and their multipliers from that are far closer to the rest of the sample, again suggesting the Xmas Day gross was an anomaly

 

Focusing on the middle group, its really only family films (Bedtime, Marley, Daddy) or later Awards contenders (Ben Button, Django, Vice) that even mange to crack or approach 10x. More likely this year's Xmas opener TCP falls into the grouping highlighted in purple, two musicals and a film that skewed towards Black audiences, finishing at 8-9x the Xmas OD total, with some room to push a bit higher with some awards consideration and impact

 

With that said, how much will XMas Day make? I'm not sure: sales are through the roof, but there are reasons to suspect the pre-sales are atypically high, and part of the power of Christmas Day is how wide/deep the business spreads across the lower tier markets, which may not be to TCP's advantage. Also, with WB having 3 major releases, there may be hesitation from theaters in allocating too many screens to their product, with TCP likely drawing the short straw relative to potential (which could depress the OD and increase the multiplier)

 

Here are the highest grossing Xmas Day openings:

1. Sherlock Holmes (2009) $24.6M

2. Les Miserables (2012) $18.1M

3. Daddy's Home (2015) $15.7M

4. Unbroken (2014) $15.4M

5. Into the Woods (2014) $15.1M

6. Django Unchained (2012) $15.0M

7. Marley & Me (2008) $14.4M

8. Benjamin Button (2008) $11.9M

9. Bedtimes Stories (2008) $10.6M

10. Ali (2001) $10.1M

Interesting that 7 of these totals happened over just 3 years: 2008, 2012, 2014

 

TCP almost certainly ends up somewhere on that list, IMO in approx the Into the Woods to Les Mis range, which would project to a final total of $120-$150M, depending on where the first day ultimately falls

[crazymoviekid]

2 Local NJ Theaters Christmas Day T-11:

 

The Color Purple - 553 (8 shows)
Wonka - 70 (8 shows)
AQM 2 - 15 (8 shows)
Ferrari - 61 (7 shows)
Migration - 14 (9 shows)
The Iron Claw - 0 (7 shows)
Poor Things - 0 (6 shows)
Boys in the Boat - 25 (7 shows)
Anyone But You -  0 (8 shows)

Color Purple continuing to be a monster.   Ferrari has jumped tremendously.  Gonna be a big adult/arthouse title.  AQM2 lost seats.  There's still time😬  Boys in the Boat joined with an encouraging result.  Iron Claw is DOA.

[keysersoze123]

On 12/11/2023 at 7:05 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews(T-11) - 21906/504381 432024.34 2595 shows

Friday - 13495/720465 251623.73 3730 shows

 

Data is as of yesterday night. Its as expected as this movie is a dead end and DCEU has had only bombs this decade. I am thinking 4m previews and 25-30m OW.  

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews(T-9) - 23516/508989 462825.76 2602 shows

Friday - 14910/721297 277602.72 3714 shows

 

 

[Brainbug]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

December Opening Multipliers

I've been referring to these numbers broadly of late, but given some of the general, uh, misconceptions out there, thought it would be good to write it all up as a reference point. Not really tracking related, so burying most of it under spoiler boxes

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Pre-Pre-Christmas OW [Wonka]

 

The "pre-pre" refers to films opening at least week, but less than 2, before Christmas Day, or Fri 12/12 to 12/18. However, the specific date matters, in that this could be the last shopping weekend before the big day (depressing numbers), and the calendar configuration will also impact when schools are getting out (inflating weekdays). Therefore, felt it was best to use the full Opening Week, rather than just weekend, to help balance out those effects.  

 

Here's how films since 2015 have performed over weeks 2-4 after opening, and the final multiplier vs their full 7-day OWeek

 

Two clear sets of data: the major tentpoles (SW, NWH), making either 2.09x or 2.40x, and the rest (which includes Avatar 2), with all but one finishing at 3.22x to 4.33x from OWeek.   Additionally, once the holidays have passed, there is clear shift based on the normal box office rules of grossing level, WOM, competition, etc, where films like Spider-Verse & Avatar 2 continue to grow (adding more than a full X/OWeek after), and others like Collateral Beauty and Alvin Road Chip mostly peter out

Ferdinand opened in the shadow of TFA, which likely helped to atypically backload its grosses

 

Based on these trajectories, we should expect Wonka to have pulled in ~3x (2.8-3.3) its first week by Thur 1/11, with a chance to add another full X+ after that.

Forecast: ~$35-$45M OWeek, ~4x OWeek (with room to go a bit higher, up to 4.25x)

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Pre-Christmas Weekend [Aquaman 2, Migration]

 

The closer to Christmas the release, the more relevant the date becomes, so only be focusing on films in years with the same Fri 12/22 date. While we have a handful of openers from 2017, the previous time with this calendar arrangement was 2006, so grain of salt with those comps. Using only the OW, not the full week, here were the respective mutipliers and trajectory (and in the case of TLJ, the second weekend, with Rocky Balboa opening on Wed 12/20)

 

 

Again, see very large divergence after the holidays, with lower level releases like Downsizing and Father Figures pretty much done at that point, while Night at the Museum had a ridiculous post holiday run. The median film in this sample added less than a full OW following the post-holiday week, interestingly far less than the films opening a week before, though the choice of release date may itself be an indicator of potential legs

 

A lot less certainty here given the data set and range, but should expect a minimum of 4.5x, and I suppose up to 7x for a more backloaded Xmas and strong post-holiday run, mostly likely in/around the 5-5.5x range. Nearly all films in this sample had a 2-2.5x OWeek, so the final total should become mostly clear by the end of that first week, depending on how soft the OW vs backloaded for Christmas Day and ensuing weekdays.

 

Based on current pre-sales (for which data is limited, and subject to change next week)

Aquaman = $20M+ OW, ~$100M-$130M total

Migration = OW in Teens (?), around $100M (?)

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Christmas Day [The Color Purple]

Alright, now the release date which has caused the most, uh, discussion, as the film opening that day is the only one showing real signs of breakout potential. But keep in mind that Christmas Day is an animal unto itself, usually among the highest grossing days of the year, but that can skew films opening on that date

 

For this data set, pulled all Xmas day openings (or wide expansion) since 2015, as well as any film that opened to at least $10M regardless of year. With a few exceptions, there is a fairly clear pattern in the total gross relative to that first day

 

 

On the low end, have a handful of films that made over 15% of their total gross in the first day (and a lot more not included), and only 2 in this sample that managed to break 11x. However, those two are even more outlier-y than shown, to the point I cut them off the chart, at 14.0 and 16.8x respectively. Interestingly, both of these films opened on Xmas 2019, so I suspect it has more to do with some quirk of that year (seat allocation? weather impact?) than any new trend. They also dropped just 6% and 13% from Xmas to Boxing Day, which is very low for a weekday Xmas, and their multipliers from that are far closer to the rest of the sample, again suggesting the Xmas Day gross was an anomaly

 

Focusing on the middle group, its really only family films (Bedtime, Marley, Daddy) or later Awards contenders (Ben Button, Django, Vice) that even mange to crack or approach 10x. More likely this year's Xmas opener TCP falls into the grouping highlighted in purple, two musicals and a film that skewed towards Black audiences, finishing at 8-9x the Xmas OD total, with some room to push a bit higher with some awards consideration and impact

 

With that said, how much will XMas Day make? I'm not sure: sales are through the roof, but there are reasons to suspect the pre-sales are atypically high, and part of the power of Christmas Day is how wide/deep the business spreads across the lower tier markets, which may not be to TCP's advantage. Also, with WB having 3 major releases, there may be hesitation from theaters in allocating too many screens to their product, with TCP likely drawing the short straw relative to potential (which could depress the OD and increase the multiplier)

 

Here are the highest grossing Xmas Day openings:

1. Sherlock Holmes (2009) $24.6M

2. Les Miserables (2012) $18.1M

3. Daddy's Home (2015) $15.7M

4. Unbroken (2014) $15.4M

5. Into the Woods (2014) $15.1M

6. Django Unchained (2012) $15.0M

7. Marley & Me (2008) $14.4M

8. Benjamin Button (2008) $11.9M

9. Bedtimes Stories (2008) $10.6M

10. Ali (2001) $10.1M

Interesting that 7 of these totals happened over just 3 years: 2008, 2012, 2014

 

TCP almost certainly ends up somewhere on that list, IMO in approx the Into the Woods to Les Mis range, which would project to a final total of $120-$150M, depending on where the first day ultimately falls

 

 

Spoiler

 

[Ezen Baklattan]

Mean Girls tickets just went on sale, 4pm Thursday preview start time.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

Mean Girls tickets just went on sale, 4pm Thursday preview start time.

It's also having early access shows on Wednesday (wearing pink naturally encouraged heh).