The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[dallas]

5 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
200	1855	40183	4.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

252

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.220x) of Blue Beetle $4.03M Previews

(0.399x) of The Flash $3.87M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.95M

 

i'm feeling O/U $4M previews right now. A pretty good recovery all things considering 

Yeah I've been feeling $4M for a while, I just wasn't sure if it was due to my area over-indexing a lot. I'm thinking it does land around that number now. Probably a $20-25M opening too. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 12/19/2023 at 7:58 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
203	5867	39816	14.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

958

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SELLOUTS

3

 

COMPS

T-6

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(6.935x) of TMNT $26.70M 

(3.665x) of Mi7 $25.65M 

(1.736x) of TLM $17.88M 

(1.036x) of Barbie $21.86M 

Comps AVG: $23.02M

 

Probably the craziest T-6 i've ever tracked. Usually we start hitting 1k seats sold in a single day around T-1 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
227	6223	44739	13.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

356

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-5

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(3.656x) of Mi7 $25.59M 

(1.713x) of TLM $17.65M 

(0.998x) of Barbie $21.05M 

Comps AVG: $21.43M

[dallas]

Once again, no comps unfortunately, but Aquaman 2 has had a great T-1 here. I think $4M is likely, especially if walkups are strong.

[Tinalera]

Aquaman 2

Thurs Dec 21 Fri dec 22 (T-1 Thurs, T-2 Fri)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	24	302	6465	6767	0.0446
Fri	4	38	358	8656	9014	0.0397
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	3	9	130	2153	2283	0.0569
Fri	4	25	236	5858	6094	0.0387

 

 

Comparison

Shazam2

Thurs March 16 and Fri Mar 17 (t-2)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

Toronto	Thurs	4	32	188	4072	4260	0.0441
	Fri	3	41	201	9551	9752	0.0206
Montreal		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	3	15	112	3672	3784	0.0295
	Fri	4	33	104	8497	8601	0.0120

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-1):

 

I'll set my flag at $3.9 Million, +/- 0.3. (But again, I really should stop making predictions without T-0 data, I just can't help myself!)

 

Also, and most importantly, sending a lot of love in this group chat to Shawn and everyone on here ❤️ 

 

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

 

i'm feeling O/U $4M previews right now. A pretty good recovery all things considering 

 

[dallas]

Christmas Day 

 

The Color Purple - 966 tickets sold

Wonka - 374 tickets sold

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - 132 tickets sold

Migration - 74 tickets sold

 

 

[Relevation]

$4M previews will not happen for Aquaman because the walkups for it to keep pace with the smaller DCEU films will not happen

 

Social reactions are overwhelmingly negative so this will probably get Morbius tier reviews or worse, likely crippling the walkups plus the fact that it's a sequel with much fewer positive walkup factors than Blue Beetle (more connected to core DCEU, no latino walkups, crowded marketplace, no family walkups, likely piss poor reviews)

 

$3.75M is the number imo, combined with a terrible IM and legs closer to TLJ than a normal Dec 22 Christmas release

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, Relevation said:

$4M previews will not happen for Aquaman because the walkups for it to keep pace with the smaller DCEU films will not happen

 

Social reactions are overwhelmingly negative so this will probably get Morbius tier reviews or worse, likely crippling the walkups plus the fact that it's a sequel with much fewer positive walkup factors than Blue Beetle (more connected to core DCEU, no latino walkups, crowded marketplace, no family walkups, likely piss poor reviews)

 

$3.75M is the number imo, combined with a terrible IM and legs closer to TLJ than a normal Dec 22 Christmas release

So what's your OW/DOM/WW prediction?

[dallas]

3 minutes ago, Relevation said:

$4M previews will not happen for Aquaman because the walkups for it to keep pace with the smaller DCEU films will not happen

 

Social reactions are overwhelmingly negative so this will probably get Morbius tier reviews or worse, likely crippling the walkups plus the fact that it's a sequel with much fewer positive walkup factors than Blue Beetle (more connected to core DCEU, no latino walkups, crowded marketplace, no family walkups, likely piss poor reviews)

 

$3.75M is the number imo, combined with a terrible IM and legs closer to TLJ than a normal Dec 22 Christmas release

"Overwhelmingly negative"? I've seen more positive reactions than I have negative tbh. I don't know where you're getting this from. And I disagree with it not hitting $4M due to lack of walkups. Kids are out of school now and it's holiday season so there are bound to be a decent amount of walkups regardless of initial reactions to the movie. This honestly sounds like doomposting to me, but I'd rather just agree to disagree.

[Megajohn01]

6 minutes ago, dallas said:

"Overwhelmingly negative"? I've seen more positive reactions than I have negative tbh. I don't know where you're getting this from. And I disagree with it not hitting $4M due to lack of walkups. Kids are out of school now and it's holiday season so there are bound to be a decent amount of walkups regardless of initial reactions to the movie. This honestly sounds like doomposting to me, but I'd rather just agree to disagree.

If the DC universe and superhero films in general were in a better shape with GA, I could envision $4M but too many DC film misfires as well as the overall downturn for CBM, I see at most $3.5M in previews. I could be surprised but at the moment I can’t see $4M in previews 

[emoviefan]

The weekend thread gonna be fun.

[filmlover]

Anyone But You also remains embargoed even though it already had public screenings yesterday and today. Great sign of confidence!

[interiorgatordecorator]

30 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Anyone But You also remains embargoed even though it already had public screenings yesterday and today. Great sign of confidence!

 

werent the screenings a last-minute thing?

is it possible they just forgot to raise the embargo? 

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

werent the screenings a last-minute thing?

is it possible they just forgot to raise the embargo? 

Clearly Sony just never knew what to do with this given how botched the whole promotion leading up to its opening was. Guess they're just hoping it becomes a hit via a well-timed release around Valentine's Day.

[keysersoze123]

Quick update

MTC(T-1)

Aquaman 2 -  45581/553734 866496.39 2968 shows +7686

Migration - 9508/342043 130412.18 2409 shows +2823

 

Probably tracking towards 75K finish and around 4m previews. FYI Blue Beetle ATP was lower than norm as it did not get all the Imax(most big ones stayed with Oppenheimer)/PLF back then. FYI Shazam 2 finished at 67680/551491 1116269.84 for 3.4m previews and sold around 26K tickets final day. Let us see how things go for Aquabro 2.  it still has ATP higher than Shazam 2 as well. 

 

Migration was take few hours earlier yesterday. Thinking with minimal PLF(low ATP) its going to miss 1m previews. But this movie is not about the previews and so we have to wait and see how rest of the weekend/holidays goes. 

 

Color Purple 12/25 - 185131/551409 2324783.27 3879 shows +14312

 

Great numbers for sure. Around 250K by the team shows start on Monday and then its about walkups. Thinking 20m+ even with low ATP. 

 

FYI I will be able to track this only till Saturday as I am not at home between Sunday to Thursday. This is anyway the last major movie to track for a while and so will take a break post that. 

Edited December 21, 2023 by keysersoze123

[dallas]

Question:

 

I checked Friday sales for Aquaman and saw 259 tickets sold. Is this a good amount sold compared to 269 tickets for previews?

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, Relevation said:

$4M previews will not happen for Aquaman because the walkups for it to keep pace with the smaller DCEU films will not happen

 

Social reactions are overwhelmingly negative so this will probably get Morbius tier reviews or worse, likely crippling the walkups plus the fact that it's a sequel with much fewer positive walkup factors than Blue Beetle (more connected to core DCEU, no latino walkups, crowded marketplace, no family walkups, likely piss poor reviews)

 

$3.75M is the number imo, combined with a terrible IM and legs closer to TLJ than a normal Dec 22 Christmas release

So $4m previews won’t happen because of all of those reasons, yet $3.75m will?

 

All of your “overwhelming, piss poor, Morbius etc” hyperbole only makes a difference of $0.25m in the end? 😂

[Porthos]

On 12/20/2023 at 1:07 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-2]

1268/19908 (6.37% sold) [+182 tickets] 146 showtimes

 

1.19397x TSS at T-2                    [5.53m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
0.49358x Black Adam at T-2     [3.75m]
1.56737x Shazam 2 at T-2          [5.33m]
0.23468x AtSV at T-2                 [4.07m]
0.44933x The Flash at T-2         [4.36m]
1.60101x Blue Beetle at T-2        [5.28m]

 

===

 

Still looking like 4m+, locally. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

 

As ever thus for films of this size though, proof is in the pudding last two days of pre-sales.

 

Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-1]

1674/19908 (8.41% sold) [+406 tickets] 146 showtimes

 

1.25540x TSS at T-1                  [5.78m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
0.53456x Black Adam at T-1     [4.03m]
1.57717x Shazam 2 at T-1          [5.32m]
0.23966x AtSV at T-1                [4.13m]
0.46613x The Flash at T-1        [4.49m]
1.47895x Blue Beetle at T-1      [4.85m]

 

====

 

Sacramento has to be over-performing coz if I didn't know better, I'd say this was converging on 4.5m locally.  That seems hella optimistic though, so let's stick with a target range of 4m to 4.25m before we get to day-of pre-sales. 

 

Either way, comps ain't going down locally, even with the initial social media reactions out there.

 

Edited December 21, 2023 by Porthos
Noticed a very slight error in my sheets — had 12 more tickets sold than I was supposed to. Dosn't meaningfully change any analysis. Fixed

[ViewerAnon]

I can't see Aquaman's reviews being Morbius-level bad. Morbius is narratively incompetent, Aquaman's just a bit dull.

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-2, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 233

New Sales since last update: 59

Growth: 34%

Showtimes: 23

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 36/5

Early Evening: 156/9

Late Evening: 41/9

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 49/6

Dolby:  14/1

IMAX: 35/3

IMAX 3D: 50/3

4dx: 12/3

VIP 3D: 4/2

VIP: 63/2

Regular 3D: 0/3

 

Comps

0.366x of The Marvels for $2.4M

0.638x of HG:BoSS for $3.7M

0.193x of FNAF for $2.0M

1.96x of Wonka for $6.9M

Avg: $3.7M

 

Ticket per showtime comp

 

2.21x Blue Beetle for $7.3M

 

Another good day. I've added back FNAF as a comp and added Wonka. Marvels isn't serving as a good proxy, with a very different growth curve, so might as well throw in everything I have right now.

 

It's also staying on the same growth curve as Blue Beetle, but at a higher volume.

 

Overall, a pretty good turnaround.

 

On another note, full showtimes are up for Christmas Day now. The Color Purple is playing in most theatres, but not the two closest to me unfortunately. It's also limited to one screen in all but 2-3 theatres, and in those situations, the second screen is a tiny 40 person or so auditorium.

 

 

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-1, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 313

New Sales since last update: 80

Growth: 34%

Showtimes: 23

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 43/5

Early Evening: 207/9

Late Evening: 63/9

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 76/6

Dolby:  18/1

IMAX: 44/3

IMAX 3D: 61/3

4dx: 14/3

VIP 3D: 7/2

VIP: 87/2

Regular 3D: 6/3

 

Comps

0.431x of The Marvels for $2.8M

0.743x of HG:BoSS for $4.3M

0.260x of FNAF for $2.7M

1.79x of Wonka for $6.3M

Avg: $4.0M

 

Ticket per showtime comp

 

1.92x Blue Beetle for $6.3M

 

Okay final day. I was hoping for a bit more, but, for something that had very little up front demand, it's landed respectfully.

 

I won't do a further update today to measure walkups, but I think it will do okay even if reviews aren't great.