The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-13 Thursday previews and T-9 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 452

New Sales: 35

Growth: 8.4%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 25.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 6/2

Early Evening: 354/9

Late Evening: 92/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 112/7

IMAX: 240/4

VIP: 92/5

4dx: 8/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.299 of Marvels for $8.6M

4.708x of HG: BoSS for $27.1M

10.044x Madame Web for $60.3M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 448

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 13

Growth: 3.0%

 

Added new comps. They're not that useful at this stage, but I figure I may as well add them. They'll converge eventually to something useful.

 

Growth is a bit above yesterday's, which had a jump from the social media reactions. So, there is something happening here. It's jumped up against the Marvels comp, so its dislodged itself from that growth curve.

 

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-12 Thursday previews and T-8 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 475

New Sales: 23

Growth: 5.1%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 26.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 6/2

Early Evening: 367/9

Late Evening: 102/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 121/7

IMAX: 248/4

VIP: 98/5

4dx: 8/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.331 of Marvels for $8.8M

4.025x of HG: BoSS for $23.1M

8.051x Madame Web for $48.3M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 461

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 13

Growth: 2.9%

 

It might just be from being a weekend update, but the growth rate is falling back a bit, maybe indicating that the early reactions are wearing off.

[vafrow]

On 2/15/2024 at 6:38 PM, vafrow said:

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-22 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 15

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 2/2

Early Evening: 11/5

Late Evening: 1/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 7/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 2/1

 

Comps

3.75x Wonka for $13.1M

 

I thought I'd start posting KFP4. I've been tracking since launch, but it hasn't done much.

 

My only comp is Wonka, but at small numbers, it's not producing any meaningful intel. Wonka started doing a bit better around T-15. I'll probably not post this one daily, but will probably still track it just to fill out my data for future comps.

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-19 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 18

New Sales: 3

Growth: 20%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.3

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 2/2

Early Evening: 11/5

Late Evening: 4/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 10/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 2/1

 

Comps

2.571x Wonka for $9.0M

 

Quick update. Still very difficult to get any real intel m

[Boxofficerules]

When should we start seeing stuff for Imaginary?

[abracadabra1998]

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It’s a cartoon.

It’s 20 days until release.

 

Sales are ahead of what Elemental had T-13 and Trolls T-7

Elemental is an original IP, Trolls has EA siphoning off a bunch of sales until the week of release. I get what you’re saying (not really concerned about KFP4 just yet), but those are important conditionals

[TheFlatLannister]

13 hours ago, Speedorito said:

Dune must be a really annoying film to track because you get people telling you you’re not tracking well because the numbers aren’t as big they want them to be yet (not talking about honest suggestions).

 

 Like, chill people. The film isn’t going to flop.

FWIW, I think $80M is all but locked. Thinking mid to high $80Ms is happening.

 

$11M previews x 7.5 IM and $2M EA is where I think it will land 

[ando]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FWIW, I think $80M is all but locked. Thinking mid to high $80Ms is happening.

 

$11M previews x 7.5 IM and $2M EA is where I think it will land 

I recall before Dune: Part One released, a lot of the discourse around the movie was that it was going to bomb hard, people wouldn't be into the source material, $60M domestic total, etc. To see the sequel pushing $80M OW is so awesome. 

[leoh]

6 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-19 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 18

New Sales: 3

Growth: 20%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.3

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 2/2

Early Evening: 11/5

Late Evening: 4/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 10/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 2/1

 

Comps

2.571x Wonka for $9.0M

 

Quick update. Still very difficult to get any real intel m

this recalls something you said two weeks ago when your first projection was showing Madame Web 6M+ and OL 14M on VDay and you were like “nah, never mind guys!” lol

Edited February 18 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Elemental is an original IP, Trolls has EA siphoning off a bunch of sales until the week of release. I get what you’re saying (not really concerned about KFP4 just yet), but those are important conditionals

I forgot about Trolls EA. It was doing great in regards to EA and it had big EA show count(600 shows across just the 2 MTC I looked at). Obviously previews were soft as families were booking tickets for early shows which were 12 days before previews. This makes Panda look significantly worse than Trolls. 

[keysersoze123]

Regarding Dune, beyond just previews, its friday sales are on par with Oppenheimer and even Maverick. its stronger than last Jurassic movie. Weird thing is even Barbie did not look so strong at this point. But it went on a overdrive from this point went from a 100m opener to a 165m finish.  Let us see how things go next week that will give us a strong indication on finish. It will not have any capacity issues of Oppeneheimer and has all PLF and so will end up with ATP higher than most movies. Only Avatar 2 would be higher due to high 3D ratio. but at similar point in presales, Dune is lower in ticket sales/gross than A2 but higher ATP. 

 

Edit: A2 comps across the weekend puts it at 95m OW. I will take that for sure. 😀

Edited February 18 by keysersoze123

[dallas]

I think $80M is locked for Dune 2. Not sure if it's possible that it climbs to $100M at this point but I'm definitely rooting for it. 

 

[lorddemaxus]

Really think Dune's trajectory from here on out depends on the review bump. But even then, might not have a big one just because I have a hard time believing there are a lot of fence sitters for a part 2 film.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Regarding Dune, beyond just previews, its friday sales are on par with Oppenheimer and even Maverick. its stronger than last Jurassic movie. Weird thing is even Barbie did not look so strong at this point. But it went on a overdrive from this point went from a 100m opener to a 165m finish.  Let us see how things go next week that will give us a strong indication on finish. It will not have any capacity issues of Oppeneheimer and has all PLF and so will end up with ATP higher than most movies. Only Avatar 2 would be higher due to high 3D ratio. but at similar point in presales, Dune is lower in ticket sales/gross than A2 but higher ATP. 

 

Edit: A2 comps across the weekend puts it at 95m OW. I will take that for sure. 😀

 

Umm, see I've been trying for weeks to get Sean to join the triple digit club, so let's see about knocking that up another $5M+:)...

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 5 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
992	105	1353	73.32%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

507

1794

28.26%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

458

1951

23.48%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 5 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2190	384	19298	11.35%	13	94

 

2.738

Indiana Jones T-12

19.71M

0.818	Avatar 2 T-12	13.90M
0.443	Thor L&T T-12	12.85M

2.352

Dune Part 1 T-12

12.00M

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1016	24	1353	75.09%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

511

1794

28.48%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

483

1951

24.76%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2271	81	19298	11.77%	13	94

 

1.463	Oppenheimer T-11	15.36M
2.776	Indiana Jones T-11	19.99M

0.659

Ant-Man 3 T-11

11.54M

0.450	Thor L&T T-11	13.04M
0.878	Batman T-11*	18.96M
2.308	Dune Part 1 T-11	11.77M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2 [+5 days of sales]

T-12 Thursday

177 Showings

9059

+1344

26129

ATP:

18.08

1.864

Indiana Jones T-12

13.42M

2.117	Avatar T-12	35.98M
0.744	Thor L&T T-12	21.58M

 

T-13 Friday

257 Showings

10373

+1706

38139

ATP:

17.69

2.417

Indiana Jones T-13

40.60M

1.905	Avatar T-13	68.96M
1.049	Thor L&T T-13	42.53M

 

T-14 Saturday

269 Showings

12138

+1846

39924

ATP:

17.20

2.947

Indiana Jones T-14

54.75M

1.935	Avatar T-14	85.78M
1.309	Thor L&T T-14	55.12M

 

T-15 Sunday

243 Showings

7846

+1679

35912

ATP:

17.29

3.402

Indiana Jones T-15

61.58M

2.141	Avatar T-15	78.31M
1.551	Thor L&T T-15	50.39M

 

It's really overperforming here... might add Barbie as a comp tomorrow just for fun

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-11 Thursday

179 Showings

9354

+295

26431

ATP:

18.03

0.656	Barbie T-11	14.64M
1.963	Oppenheimer T-11	20.62M
1.895	Indiana Jones T-11	13.64M

0.754	Thor L&T T-11	21.87M
1.050	Batman T-11*	18.48M

Doesn't include Batman EA showings I missed

 

T-12 Friday

257 Showings

10848

+475

38139

ATP:

17.67

0.792	Barbie T-12	38.18M
2.113	Oppenheimer T-12	47.59M
2.472	Indiana Jones T-12	41.53M

1.066	Thor L&T T-12	43.22M
1.221	Batman T-12	42.83M

 

T-13 Saturday

269 Showings

12670

+532

39924

ATP:

17.15

0.868	Barbie T-13	41.52M
2.018	Oppenheimer T-13	53.57M
2.961	Indiana Jones T-13	55.01M

1.311	Thor L&T T-13	55.22M
1.503	Batman T-13	65.01M

 

T-14 Sunday

243 Showings

8310

+464

35912

ATP:

17.23

0.767	Barbie T-14	33.51M
2.046	Oppenheimer T-14	47.44M
3.467	Indiana Jones T-14	62.75M

1.572	Thor L&T T-14	51.08M
2.352	Batman T-14	80.30M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2 [+5 days of sales]

T-12 Thursday

103 Showings

1318

+340

17440

1.341

Indiana Jones T-12

9.65M

 

T-13 Friday

162 Showings

1758

+560

27695

2.940

Indiana Jones T-13

49.39M

 

T-14 Saturday

168 Showings

1639

+546

28840

4.982

Indiana Jones T-14

92.56M

 

T-15 Sunday

162 Showings

553

+205

27960

3.894

Indiana Jones T-15

70.49M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-11 Thursday

103 Showings

1375

+57

17436

1.203	Oppenheimer T-11	12.63M
1.359	Indiana Jones T-11	9.78M

 

T-12 Friday

162 Showings

1892

+134

27692

1.561	Oppenheimer T-12	35.15M
2.994	Indiana Jones T-12	50.29M

 

T-13 Saturday

168 Showings

1805

+166

28832

2.084	Oppenheimer T-13	54.71M
4.932	Indiana Jones T-13	91.63M

 

T-14 Sunday

162 Showings

630

+77

27954

1.358	Oppenheimer T-14	31.49M
4.375	Indiana Jones T-14	79.19M

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-11 Thursday

179 Showings

9354

+295

26431

ATP:

18.03

0.656	Barbie T-11	14.64M
1.963	Oppenheimer T-11	20.62M
1.895	Indiana Jones T-11	13.64M

0.754	Thor L&T T-11	21.87M
1.050	Batman T-11*	18.48M

Doesn't include Batman EA showings I missed

 

T-12 Friday

257 Showings

10848

+475

38139

ATP:

17.67

0.792	Barbie T-12	38.18M
2.113	Oppenheimer T-12	47.59M
2.472	Indiana Jones T-12	41.53M

1.066	Thor L&T T-12	43.22M
1.221	Batman T-12	42.83M

 

T-13 Saturday

269 Showings

12670

+532

39924

ATP:

17.15

0.868	Barbie T-13	41.52M
2.018	Oppenheimer T-13	53.57M
2.961	Indiana Jones T-13	55.01M

1.311	Thor L&T T-13	55.22M
1.503	Batman T-13	65.01M

 

T-14 Sunday

243 Showings

8310

+464

35912

ATP:

17.23

0.767	Barbie T-14	33.51M
2.046	Oppenheimer T-14	47.44M
3.467	Indiana Jones T-14	62.75M

1.572	Thor L&T T-14	51.08M
2.352	Batman T-14	80.30M

Can you add Avatar 2 comps as well. Besides Oppenheimer that is the most relevant comp. 

[Bob Train]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	174	22757	25187	2430	9.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

90

 

T-12 Comps         REVAMPED CHARTS EDITION - STILL USE WITH CAUTION!!!

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	56.02		99	4338		0/285	31126/35464	12.23%		11757	20.67%		13.68m
Thor 4	34.80		168	6982		0/228	24618/31600	22.09%		16962	14.33%		10.09m
BP2	32.77		166	7416		2/296	29738/37154	19.96%		16800	14.46%		9.17m
AM3	48.45		125	5015		0/238	27779/32794	15.29%		10475	23.20%		8.48m
GOTG3	64.42		95	3772		0/203	25282/29054	12.98%		10750	22.60%		11.27m
TGM	52.68		297	4613		0/259	31320/35933	12.84%		11474	21.18%		10.15m
JWD	86.42		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		2915	83.36%		15.55m
Ava 2	77.54		187	3134		0/145	18350/21484	14.59%		8986	27.04%		13.18m
Wick 4	189.25		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	44.60%		16.84m
Fast X	208.05		69	1168		0/178	26545/27713	4.21%		4122	58.95%		15.60m
TLM	140.14		110	1734		0/154	20987/22721	7.63%		6561	37.04%		14.43m
Indy 5	179.60		36	1353		0/128	18888/20241	6.68%		4767	50.98%		12.93m
Dune	346.65		55	701		0/75	11130/11831	5.93%		2915	83.36%		17.68m
Oppy	183.67		123	1323		0/57	7511/8834	14.98%		10750	22.60%		19.29m
Bats Tue EA T-8	101.96		-1	662		0/3	153/815	81.23%		743	89.37%		2.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       674/8313  [8.11% sold]
Matinee:    92/2840  [3.24% | 3.79% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          675/814  [82.92% sold] [+11 tickets]
Thr:    1755/24373  [7.20% sold] [+79 tickets]
PLF:     1973/9825  [20.08% | 81.19% of all tickets sold]

JWD and Oppenheimer final sold block seems to be broken. 

[HummingLemon496]

Legion Again's initial high end was $12M*7.5 for $90M -- I feel like that's a good target, could hit $250M DOM

 

Actually it's kinda funny how it's gonna be almost one year since Barbie to get a film that opened higher than Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, could be an entire year if IO2 misses lmao

Edited February 18 by HummingLemon496

[Inceptionzq]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can you add Avatar 2 comps as well. Besides Oppenheimer that is the most relevant comp. 

I added them yesterday, just don't have them today.

[vafrow]

I did a quick count for Dune for Friday in my area.

 

Friday sales are 661, which is about 40% more than Thursday. I don't have anything to really comp that to, but I feel it supports a strong weekend multiplier at this stage.

 

Also of interest is the IMAX sales breakdown. Thursday sales are roughly 55/45 split of IMAX to non IMAX sales. That ratio flips for Friday. Not a surprise, but signals more of a shift towards general audience.