The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Really think Dune's trajectory from here on out depends on the review bump. But even then, might not have a big one just because I have a hard time believing there are a lot of fence sitters for a part 2 film.

I really don't think the reviews are moving the needle much. I didn't see much in Orlando after the social medial embargo lifted for me to say strong reviews will cause a sharp spike like ATSV, Oppy, or GOTG3 saw 

 

This seems pretty accurate: 

 

On 2/16/2024 at 9:34 PM, leoh said:

 

I might be wrong, but I’ll repeat myself: I don’t think good reviews will give Dune any huge jump in pre sales. I say this due to the balance of expectations: Dune is already expected to be a really good movie, great reviews will not surprise many people. I don’t think there are many people who is doubting Dune quality and so will be convinced to buy tickets due to excellent reviews.

 

Of course there will be a good increase the closer we are to the release date, but nothing too crazy.

 

it’s a sequel of a successful movie, and as such it tends to be front loaded. Dune is a movie that already has a big fanbase and a big reputation, and for this kind of movies front loaded factor is way more common than surprising huge walk ups.

Edited February 18 by TheFlatLannister

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

MALCO

 

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-12	797	9684	54	+9.4%
Fri	T-13	1172	22401	129	+7.9%

 

Thursday Comp

1.39x The Marvels T-12 (10 theaters) = $9.17m

MALCO

 

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-11	845	9684	54	+6.0%
Fri	T-12	1242	22401	129	+6.0%

 

Thursday Comp

1.45x The Marvels T-11 (10 theaters) = $9.57m

---

 

Marvels sales were awful at this stage so that comp should keep rising. The Thu/Fri sales ratio is also better than HG BoSS (~8x IM) at a similar stage. I'm bullish on the OW too fwiw. 

Edited February 18 by jeffthehat

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
566	5500	106182	5.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

187

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2231

*84 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(1.448x) of Oppenheimer $15.20M 

(0.690x) of Barbie $15.50M 

(0.915x) of Flash $8.87M 

(2.460x) of Wonka $8.61M 

(2.281x) of Aquaman 2 $10.27M 

 

Comps AVG: $11.69M

 

Added Barbie comp cause why not!!

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
566	5673	106182	5.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

173

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2284

*53 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(1.419x) of Oppenheimer $14.90M 

(0.667x) of Barbie $14.07M 

(0.907x) of Flash $8.80M 

(2.474x) of Wonka $8.66M 

(2.277x) of Aquaman 2 $10.25M 

 

Comps AVG: $11.34M

 

Steep drop against Barbie and Oppy, not shocking considering the monster that was brewing around this time. Held steady against all other comps 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/6/2024 at 7:24 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA

 

DUNE 2 IMAX EA

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
26	1830	5707	32.0%

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

556 seats sold over the past week

 

EA sales are super strong, not shocking 

FLORIDA

 

DUNE 2 IMAX EA

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
26	2447	5707	43.8%

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

617 seats sold over the past week-ish 

 

Continues to do super well considering all desirable seats are gone 

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Thursday Previews:

 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	42	412	412	5976	6.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		136	136	33.01
MTC1:		235	235	57.04
Marcus:		107	107	25.97
Alamo:		13	13	3.16
Other chains:		57	57	13.83

 

Comps:

0.32x Boy and the Heron: $760k

0.43x Godzilla Minus One: $910k

0.63x Dragon Ball Super Hero: $2.53 MIllion

 

Average: $1.4 Million

 

Don't have very many good comps and Dragon Ball comp is from when I tracked less theaters (apples-to-apples comp, but not as good), so take these numbers with a grain of salt.

 

Drive-Away Dolls, Ordinary Angels, and updates on Dune and Panda later tonight

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

JWD and Oppenheimer final sold block seems to be broken. 

 

Looks like some numbers got transposed at one point or another.  Fixed now.

(JWD: 10966 | Oppy: 4621)

[keysersoze123]

20 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 28966/55455 575508.04 181 shows +902

Previews(T-12) - 59551/517356 1172478.59 2589 shows +1635

Friday - 57294/795628 1126218.40 4010 shows +2751

Saturday -  59050/838107 1111007.90 4227 shows +3468

 

Weird day but yesterday was around 28 hrs or so of data and it was boosted due to full day of reviews. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 30193/55706 599040.77 182 shows +1227

Previews(T-11) - 61407/517510 1207383.05 2591 shows +1856

Friday - 60023/796075 1176442.71 4011 shows +2729

Saturday -  62131/838107 1165602.25 4227 shows +3081

 

I think Early shows have started to accelerate as its 4 days earlier. But it will run out of good seats very soon almost everywhere. 

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Drive-Away Dolls (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	30	64	64	2925	2.19

 

Comps:

0.29x Asteroid City: $320k

0.61x The Iron Claw: $410k

 

Average: $365k

 

Ordinary Angels (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	20	27	27	2366	1.14

 

Comps:

0.19x Haunting in Venice: $225k

0.34x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $185k

 

Average: $205k

 

Seems like a couple of duds to add to February. Especially sad about Drive-Away Dolls, seems like not much interest sadly

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/15/2024 at 9:11 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	11	58	10441	0.56

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4	0	6.9
MTC1:		43	5	74.14
Marcus:		4	0	6.9
Alamo:		5	0	8.62
Other chains:		6	6	10.34

 

Comps:

0.48x Wonka: $1.69 Million

0.62x Wish (w/ EA): $1.43 Million

0.54x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.66 Million

 

Average: $1.59 Million

 

No meaningful Super Bowl bump which is what I was looking for

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	16	74	10441	0.71

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4	0	5.41
MTC1:		53	10	71.62
Marcus:		7	3	9.46
Alamo:		5	0	6.76
Other chains:		9	3	12.16

 

Comps:

0.47x Wonka: $1.64 Million

0.56x Wish (w/ EA): $1.28 Million

0.59x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.84 Million

0.33x TMNT (w/ EA): $1.8 Million

 

Average: $1.64 Million

 

Running with these comps until the week of release, where I'll add Trolls and maybe Migration

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/15/2024 at 9:18 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	78	241	1838	15299	12.01
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	55	735	1082	67.93
TOTALS:	82	296	2573	16381	15.71

 

Type of tix:*		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1641	204	89.28
MTC1:		998	110	54.3
Marcus:		192	17	10.45
Alamo:		273	23	14.85
Other chains:		375	91	20.4

*This chart only accounts for Thursday sales

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.39x Oppy: $14.6 Million

1.9x The Marvels: $12.52 Million

1.95x MI7 (w/ EA): $17.52 Million

2.37x Indy: $17.03 Million

0.86x Barbie (w/ EA): $19.17 Million

 

Average: $16.17 Million

 

Call it a Superbowl bump, a social media reactions bump, or a mixture of both, but this was my strongest update since the first week of sales. @Porthos you might just be right!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-7	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	79	309	2147	15535	13.82
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	59	794	1082	73.38
TOTALS:	83	368	2941	16617	17.7

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1908	267	88.87
MTC1:		1134	136	52.82
Marcus:		219	27	10.2
Alamo:		315	42	14.67
Other chains:		479	104	22.31

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.42x Oppy: $14.96 Million

2.08x The Marvels: $13.73 Million

2.01x MI7 (w/ EA): $18.11 Million

2.59x Indy: $18.69 Million

0.8x Barbie (w/ EA): $17.88 Million

 

Average: $16.67 Million

 

This is still running really hot here, probably catching the later wave of those social media reactions in these last three days. Oppy and Barbie comps will be going down for sure, as will the Marvels comp be going up. The others... we shall see.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 30193/55706 599040.77 182 shows +1227

Previews(T-11) - 61407/517510 1207383.05 2591 shows +1856

Friday - 60023/796075 1176442.71 4011 shows +2729

Saturday -  62131/838107 1165602.25 4227 shows +3081

 

I think Early shows have started to accelerate as its 4 days earlier. But it will run out of good seats very soon almost everywhere. 

Thinking 160-170K final THU.

[von Kenni]

29 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thinking 160-170K final THU.

What would that mean $ wise?

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	174	22757	25187	2430	9.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

90

 

T-12 Comps         REVAMPED CHARTS EDITION - STILL USE WITH CAUTION!!!

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	56.02		99	4338		0/285	31126/35464	12.23%		11757	20.67%		13.68m
Thor 4	34.80		168	6982		0/228	24618/31600	22.09%		16962	14.33%		10.09m
BP2	32.77		166	7416		2/296	29738/37154	19.96%		16800	14.46%		9.17m
AM3	48.45		125	5015		0/238	27779/32794	15.29%		10475	23.20%		8.48m
GOTG3	64.42		95	3772		0/203	25282/29054	12.98%		10750	22.60%		11.27m
TGM	52.68		297	4613		0/259	31320/35933	12.84%		11474	21.18%		10.15m
JWD	86.42		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		10966	22.16%		15.55m
Ava 2	77.54		187	3134		0/145	18350/21484	14.59%		8986	27.04%		13.18m
Wick 4	189.25		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	44.60%		16.84m
Fast X	208.05		69	1168		0/178	26545/27713	4.21%		4122	58.95%		15.60m
TLM	140.14		110	1734		0/154	20987/22721	7.63%		6561	37.04%		14.43m
Indy 5	179.60		36	1353		0/128	18888/20241	6.68%		4767	50.98%		12.93m
Dune	346.65		55	701		0/75	11130/11831	5.93%		2915	83.36%		17.68m
Oppy	183.67		123	1323		0/57	7511/8834	14.98%		4621	52.59%		19.29m
Bats Tue EA T-8	101.96		-1	662		0/3	153/815	81.23%		743	89.37%		2.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       674/8313  [8.11% sold]
Matinee:    92/2840  [3.24% | 3.79% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          675/814  [82.92% sold] [+11 tickets]
Thr:    1755/24373  [7.20% sold] [+79 tickets]
PLF:     1973/9825  [20.08% | 81.19% of all tickets sold]

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	174	22687	25187	2500	9.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

70

 

T-11 Comps         REVAMPED CHARTS EDITION - STILL USE WITH CAUTION!!!

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.95		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		11757	21.26%		13.66m
Thor 4	34.80		202	7184		0/228	24416/31600	22.73%		16962	14.74%		10.09m
BP2	32.83		200	7616		2/296	29538/37154	20.50%		16800	14.88%		9.19m
AM3	48.29		162	5177		0/238	27617/32794	15.79%		10475	23.87%		8.45m
GOTG3	64.38		111	3883		0/203	25171/29054	13.36%		10750	23.26%		11.27m
TGM	51.57		235	4848		0/259	31085/35933	13.49%		11474	21.79%		9.93m
JWD	83.50		182	2994		0/191	22380/25374	11.80%		10966	22.80%		15.03m
Ava 2	75.51		177	3311		0/145	18173/21484	15.41%		8986	27.82%		12.84m
Wick 4	187.55		49	1333		0/95	12458/13791	9.67%		5448	45.89%		16.69m
Fast X	205.59		48	1216		0/178	26494/27710	4.39%		4122	60.65%		15.42m
TLM	134.19		129	1863		0/154	20858/22721	8.20%		6561	38.10%		13.82m
Indy 5	175.69		70	1423		0/128	18818/20241	7.03%		4767	52.44%		12.65m
Dune	334.67		46	747		0/75	11084/11831	6.31%		2915	85.76%		17.07m
Oppy	179.21		72	1395		0/57	7439/8834	15.79%		4621	54.10%		18.82m
Bats Tue EA T-7	103.31		2	664		0/3	151/815	81.47%		743	90.85%		2.07m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       700/8313  [8.42% sold]
Matinee:    92/2840  [3.24% | 3.68% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:         686/814  [84.28% sold] [+11 tickets]
Thr:    1814/24373  [7.44% sold] [+59 tickets]
PLF:    2028/9825  [20.64% | 81.12% of all tickets sold]

[Issac Newton]

Hello! Anyone tracking Tanjiro!

 

 

 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-12 Thursday previews and T-8 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 475

New Sales: 23

Growth: 5.1%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 26.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 6/2

Early Evening: 367/9

Late Evening: 102/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 121/7

IMAX: 248/4

VIP: 98/5

4dx: 8/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.331 of Marvels for $8.8M

4.025x of HG: BoSS for $23.1M

8.051x Madame Web for $48.3M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 461

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 13

Growth: 2.9%

 

It might just be from being a weekend update, but the growth rate is falling back a bit, maybe indicating that the early reactions are wearing off.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-11 Thursday previews and T-7 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 489

New Sales: 14

Growth: 2.9%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 27.2

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 6/2

Early Evening: 380/9

Late Evening: 103/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 123/7

IMAX: 250/4

VIP: 107/5

4dx: 8/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.347 of Marvels for $8.9M

3.705 of HG: BoSS for $21.3M

7.641x Madame Web for $45.8M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 495

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 34

Growth: 7.4%

 

Growth for previews has slowed down, but, it's also a weeke update over a long weekend. General caveat to ignore the two outlier comps. I'm keeping them there just to see when and how those come to something normal.

 

Biggest story is that the EA shows are picking up. It makes sense that if the early reactions are going to trigger die hards to do anything, it's to see it early.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-19 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 18

New Sales: 3

Growth: 20%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.3

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 2/2

Early Evening: 11/5

Late Evening: 4/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 10/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 2/1

 

Comps

2.571x Wonka for $9.0M

 

Quick update. Still very difficult to get any real intel m

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-18 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 25

New Sales: 7

Growth: 38%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.8

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 2/2

Early Evening: 18/5

Late Evening: 4/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 17/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 2/1

 

Comps

2.778x Wonka for $9.7M

 

Sales picked up a bit unexpectedly.

[M37]

5 hours ago, von Kenni said:

What would that mean $ wise?

Using standard PSM (Pre-Sale Multiplier) range, roughly $9-$10M for Thursday

 

Would be similar growth pattern as Avatar 2 from this point

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/16/2024 at 2:36 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune MiniTC2 T-14 Days

 

Thursday - 2223/41362 (141 showings)

 

Comps

1.26x Oppy - $13M

0.51x Avatar 2 - $9M

Dune MiniTC2 T-11 Days

Thursday - 2487/41974 (145 showings)

 

Comps

1.21x Oppy - $12.5M

0.49x Avatar 2 - $8.5M

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/16/2024 at 2:42 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-21 Days

Previews - 87/31157 (144 showings)

 

Comps

1.6x Elemental - $3.8M

1.75x Trolls 3 - $2.3M

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-18 Days

 

Previews - 108/31272 (145 showings)

 

Comps

1.64x Elemental - $3.9M

1.83x Trolls 3 - $2.4M

[charlie Jatinder]

Demon Slayer: whatever they calling it this time MiniTC2 T-4 Days

 

Previews - 1609/26618 (103 showings)
Friday - 1878/38582 (146 showings)

 

Comps 

(THU + FRI) 1.02x Demon Slayer: To Swordsmith Village - $4.3M