The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Maaatt]

4 hours ago, DInky said:

 

I never expected positive reviews to do a lot for this film. People already know if they want to see this based on their experience with the first movie. If someone didn't care for the first movie, which also had a pretty high review score, then an additional 10% to the RT score won't move the needle. Basically, everybody who's in was already in a while ago and the same goes for those who plan to sit this one out.

 

Perhaps its true that most people already know if they want to see this movie based on their experience with the first movie, but for casual moviegoers/fans its not just about making a decision to see the sequel but when/how to to view the movie and with strong reviews that pushes people who may otherwise be ok with waiting till VOD or streaming to go in theaters or perhaps motivates someone to go opening weekend to see it as soon as they can instead of later. Anyone who frequents a box office message board is probably the type of person who goes to see a lot of movies but for a lot of people they only go to the cinema a few times a year (if even that for some) and are usually more then willing to wait (even with movies they want to see) until they are available to watch at home and for these types of people the kind of reviews Dune Part 2 is getting can be a determining factor in making this movie one of the times the venture out to the cinema this year. 

 

Even among people who were always going to see this movie opening weekend the strong reviews (specifically the many reviews that tell audiences to see it on the biggest screen possible) can push some to see it on a more pricey IMAX or PLF screen which would increase the average ticket price. We already know that the diehard fanboys were having a major preference for the PLF screens but now with these reviews I think it just increases the number of people who will be willing to pay more for a bigger screen beyond the diehard fanboys.

[lorddemaxus]

Gimme 10*8+2 and Im happy

[keysersoze123]

  

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 32757/55706 646400.63 182 shows +1333

Previews(T-9) - 65971/541213 1291009.67 2725 shows +2189

Friday - 66209/799205 1289963.07 4029 shows +2958

Saturday -  68530/840162 1276852.66 4239 shows +3271

 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 35263/55706 692582.57 182 shows +2506

Previews(T-8) - 69879/546226 1363644.83 2756 shows +3908

Friday - 71424/800415 1385392.40 4034 shows +5215

Saturday - 73645/842246 1366513.83 4247 shows +5115

 

Good day overall. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

  

 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 35263/55706 692582.57 182 shows +2506

Previews(T-8) - 69879/546226 1363644.83 2756 shows +3908

Friday - 71424/800415 1385392.40 4034 shows +5215

Saturday - 73645/842246 1366513.83 4247 shows +5115

 

Good day overall. 

 

That was quick lol

[Porthos]

On 2/20/2024 at 11:34 PM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	172	22260	24913	2653	10.65%

 

Total Net Showings Removed Today	1
Total Net Seats Removed Today	178
Total Seats Sold Today	76

 

T-9 Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.26		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	22.57%		13.49m
Thor 4	34.68		288	7650		0/237	24964/32614	23.46%		16962	15.64%		10.06m
BP2	32.68		300	8117		2/301	29820/37937	21.40%		16800	15.79%		9.15m
AM3	47.58		257	5576		0/238	27218/32794	17.00%		10475	25.33%		8.33m
GOTG3	62.59		124	4239		0/207	25745/29984	14.14%		10750	24.68%		10.95m
TGM	50.97		167	5205		0/268	31810/37015	14.06%		11474	23.12%		9.82m
JWD	78.49		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	24.19%		14.13m
Ava 2	72.47		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	29.52%		12.32m
Wick 4	181.34		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	48.70%		16.14m
Fast X	194.79		64	1362		0/179	26523/27885	4.88%		4122	64.36%		14.61m
TLM	124.55		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	9.06%		6561	40.44%		12.83m
Indy 5	162.96		91	1628		0/134	18934/20571	7.91%		4767	55.65%		11.73m
Dune	294.78		70	900		0/78	11142/12042	7.47%		2915	91.01%		15.03m
Oppy	162.56		134	1632		0/65	7968/9600	17.00%		4621	57.41%		17.07m
Bats Tue EA T-5	102.22		11	677		0/3	138/815	83.07%		743	93.13%		2.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       739/7918  [9.33% sold]
Matinee:    98/2840  [3.45% | 3.69% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:         692/814  [85.01% sold] [+6 tickets]
Thr:    1961/24099  [8.14% sold] [+70 tickets]
PLF:     2129/9825  [21.67% | 80.25% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Since this has come up a couple of times before, yes the daily sold total for the GOTG3 comp is in fact correct, even though it doesn't match with the previous day's total. That's because at this point in GOTG3's run I discovered that at some point in the previous few days, one of the local theaters grabbed the GOTG Marathon.  79 seats had already been sold by that point so I just folded those seats into the total sold and called it a night.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	172	22131	24913	2782	11.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

129

 

T-8 Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	55.91		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		11757	23.66%		13.65m
Thor 4	35.06		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	16.40%		10.17m
BP2	33.18		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	16.56%		9.29m
AM3	48.11		207	5783		0/237	26881/32664	17.70%		10475	26.56%		8.42m
GOTG3	63.10		170	4409		0/207	25574/29983	14.70%		10750	25.88%		11.04m
Dune	283.30		82	982		0/78	11060/12042	8.15%		2915	95.44%		14.45m
TGM	49.95		365	5570		0/268	31445/37015	15.05%		11474	24.25%		9.62m
JWD	77.91		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		10966	25.37%		14.02m
Ava 2	70.93		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	30.96%		12.06m
Wick 4	175.74		120	1583		0/109	13716/15299	10.35%		5448	51.06%		15.64m
Fast X	193.60		75	1437		0/179	26452/27889	5.15%		4122	67.49%		14.52m
TLM	123.53		122	2252		0/165	21248/23500	9.58%		6561	42.40%		12.72m
Indy 5	162.69		82	1710		0/135	18997/20707	8.26%		4767	58.36%		11.71m
Oppy	159.15		116	1748		0/72	8305/10053	17.39%		4621	60.20%		16.71m
Bats Tue EA T-4	101.74		11	688		0/3	127/815	84.42%		743	94.21%		2.03m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:         777/7918  [9.81% sold]
Matinee:    109/2840  [3.84% | 3.92% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          700/814  [86.00% sold] [+8 tickets]
Thr:    2082/24099  [8.64% sold] [+121 tickets]
PLF:      2228/9825  [22.68% | 80.09% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Definitely a review bounce, but man, I dunno. Not loving that the Ava 2 comp keeps dropping.  On the other hand, my sneaky comp of TLM (sneaky in the sense that it was very middle loaded and not as backloaded as many family friendly flicks) is holding pretty steady, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Indy 5 is also pretty steady as well, for what it's worth.  And Dune: Part Two should still have a larger ATP than either of those two flicks.  As is The Batman, also FWIW.  Though D2 will suffer from not having an extra day of exclusive PLF previews.

 

Gonna see how tomorrow/Friday goes before solidifying any other thoughts I might have.

Edited February 25 by Porthos

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-9 Thursday previews and T-5 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 548

New Sales: 39

Growth: 7.7%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 47

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.7

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Morning*: 2/3

Late Afternoon: 6/11

Early Evening: 420/21

Late Evening: 120/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 141/8

IMAX: 282/4

VIP: 112/12

Regular: 0/21

4dx: 13/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.391 of Marvels for $9.2M

3.061 of HG: BoSS for $17.8M

 

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 527

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 24

Growth: 4.8%

 

So, growth is okay, but big story is the screen allocations.

 

This has gotten one of the biggest jumps at this stage that I've seen. Maybe the chain is seeing enough interest, or, most likely, they know there's not enough else out demanding these screens. Although, with the discussion of how well that the first Dune did in Canada, maybe this was always planned.

 

Given that sales have been concentrated towards the IMAX screenings, I'll be curious if these regular showings attract interest or not.

 

The other very weird thing is one location that has three very early showtimes (around 7:00 am). It's likely a mistake, but, it's not a matter of flipping the am and pm signs, as there's already evening shows booked for those screens.

 

I took out the Madame Web comp. It's such a different growth curve that it wasn't yielding anything. I may revisit what comps I'm using later this week if I have a chance.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-8 Thursday previews and T-4 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 571

New Sales: 25

Growth: 4.8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 13.0

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 8/11

Early Evening: 433/21

Late Evening: 130/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 147/8

IMAX: 286/4

VIP: 125/12

Regular: 0/21

4dx: 13/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.410 of Marvels for $9.3M

2.959 of HG: BoSS for $17.0M

 

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 568

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 41

Growth: 7.8%

 

I'm really torn on how this is going to go. On the surface, it's a low growth day given the showtime expansion and the reviews coming online. Both of those should have had a bigger impact.

 

But, it's been steadily gaining against The Marvels comp, and will be above $10M soon. And that's without an ATP adjustment. The amount of IMAX sales will definitely push this up.

 

The IMAX proportion of Thursday sales has now slipped to 50%, where it was 55% not that long ago.

 

The question I keep going over in my head is on what is the likelier scenario: landing under $200M, or over $300M. Few films land firmly in between.

 

I've flipped back and forth on this a few times, but I'm currently betting it goes over. It feels like the word of mouth will kick in over the weekend, and in the weeks to follow. But, ask me tomorrow and I might change my mind.

 

, 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-16 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 34

New Sales: 6

Growth: 21%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 22/5

Late Evening: 6/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 25/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 3/1

 

Comps

3.091x Wonka for $10.8M

 

Not much to report. Again, no really good comps. Wonka only jumped up in the final week.

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-15 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 40

New Sales: 6

Growth: 18%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 11/2

Early Evening: 22/5

Late Evening: 6/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 25/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 9/1

 

Comps

2.353x Wonka for $8.2M

 

I still don't have a firm handle on this, but it has been pretty steady. Adds a little bit every day. 

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Should also probably add that while Across the Spider-Verse was a CBM (and a sequel to boot) it still was an animated film and thus while it didn't have the same sales pattern as a standard kids-friendly/family film, it was still more backloaded than many similar CBMs.

 

Percentage of sales in last four days— Greater Sacramento Region [T-3 - T-0]

[between 9m and 30m — since May 2021]

 

  Reveal hidden contents

CBMs

BW        [13.2m]:   49.71%

Eternals [9.5m]:   52.57%

LtBC      [11.6m]:  68.09% [LOL]

Batman [21.6m]:  48.79%

Thor 4   [29m]:    43.64%

BP2       [28m]:     39.68%

AM3      [17.5m]    36.86%

GOTG3 [17.5m]     46.80%

AtSV      [17.35m]: 59.53%

Flash     [9.7m]:     58.78%

 

Animation

Minions 2 [10.75m]: 78.50% [LOLOLLOL]

AtSV         [17.35m]: 59.53%

 

Action/Adventure | SciFi

TGM    [19.6m]:  37.86% [Abnormally frontloaded in Sacto]

JWD    [18m]:     51.96%

Ava 2   [17m]:     43.31%

 

Family

TLM    [10.3m]:   53.44%

Barbie [22.3m]:  53.09%

 

Drama

Oppy   [10.5m]:  46.76%

 

Horror

FNAF  [10.3m]:   48.99%

 

If we cut this down to just 10m to 20m it becomes even clearer:

  Reveal hidden contents

CBMs

BW        [13.2m]:    49.71%

LtBC      [11.6m]:    68.09% [LOL]

AM3      [17.5m]     36.86%

GOTG3 [17.5m]     46.80%

AtSV      [17.35m]: 59.53%

 

Animation

Minions 2 [10.75m]: 78.50% [LOLOLLOL]

AtSV         [17.35m]: 59.53%

 

Action/Adventure | SciFi

TGM    [19.6m]:  37.86% [Abnormally frontloaded in Sacto]

JWD    [18m]:     51.96%

Ava 2   [17m]:     43.31%

 

Family

TLM    [10.3m]:   53.44%

 

Drama

Oppy   [10.5m]:  46.76%

 

Horror

FNAF  [10.3m]:   48.99%

 

In the 10m to 20m range, Across the Spider-Verse had the largest amount of sales in the last four days of pre-sales for anything not named Minions 2 or Let There Be Carnage with nothing else being that close.  Admittedly, The Flash at 9.7m is very close (58.78%), but AtSV nearly doubled The Flash's preview number which puts it in to context a bit more.

 

In general, the larger the preview number, the harder it is to have a large percentage at the end, which should make sense.  Not impossible as Barbs still had over 50% of its sales on the MTWTh of release week.  On the other hand, it's also the only one recently to get over 20m to clear it (for example, NWH is at 27.14% of sales in that time period) as it's just so much harder to keep growing at a sustained rate from a higher base.

 

Likewise, the smaller the preview number, the easier it is to have a large percentage at the end of pre-sales (again, for instance, The Marvels had 54.05% of its sales in the M-Th of release week, and, well...).   That's why I put cutoffs at the 9m and then 10m range as it the point I'm making gets distorted if the preview number gets too low.  

 

Another factor, which I didn't include, is length of pre-sales as, obviously, it's easier to have more sales at the end if sales haven't been going on for over a month.  And of course things like holidays and review drops can also distort things a little. 

 

But the overall patterns should still be clear.  Or at least clear-ish.

 

Anyway, all of the above is to point out that while, yes, AtSV was a CBM it didn't have the sales pattern like one.  Not completely, at any rate.

 

Spiderverse was a TMobile deal last year (if my memory is not faulty before my 1st coffee is done)...that usually holds down presales right before the deal comes live and then spikes them all the way through the weekend...it's not gonna be a good movie to use as a comp for that reason (same for Creed 3 and Wick 4, even though they are recent March movies)...

 

For now, Dune 2 has no TMobile deal coming...

[Tinalera]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-15 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 40

New Sales: 6

Growth: 18%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 11/2

Early Evening: 22/5

Late Evening: 6/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 25/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 9/1

 

Comps

2.353x Wonka for $8.2M

 

I still don't have a firm handle on this, but it has been pretty steady. Adds a little bit every day. 

Family movies can be tricky with streaming. Panda is a pretty well liked IP by families, and seems to be one of those "worth it to see in theatre" family films. I may give this one a track to see how it does and as a nice counter to Dune 2. My experience is that family films that do well tend to have that add a little bit every day as you said. As long as theres steady movement it generally does pretty good. 

 

 

[vafrow]

30 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Family movies can be tricky with streaming. Panda is a pretty well liked IP by families, and seems to be one of those "worth it to see in theatre" family films. I may give this one a track to see how it does and as a nice counter to Dune 2. My experience is that family films that do well tend to have that add a little bit every day as you said. As long as theres steady movement it generally does pretty good. 

 

 

 Your tracks usually are more urban, so I'd expect to see it perform a little lesser than mine, which is heavy suburban.

 

I still expect this to be an absolute monster the week after during March Break.

[el sid]

Ordinary Angels, counted today for today, had only 36 sold tickets in 6 theaters (no showtimes in the AMC in NY).
 

Comps (both films counted on Thursday for Thursday): Overcomer (775k from previews) had 91 sold tickets
and After Death (2.1M OD including previews) had 71 sold tickets.

So IMO if its walk-ups are not really good it will not even reach 5M OW.

[el sid]

Drive-Away Dolls, counted today for today, had ok 228 sold tickets in 7 theaters.
 

Comps: Zola (released on Wednesday, 500k OD, 2M OW 5-day) had 114 sold tickets
and Bros (500k from previews/4.8M OW) had also on Thursday for Thursday 264 sold tickets.
(The Green Knight had on Thursday for Friday 498 sold tickets).

I could imagine that Drive-Away Dolls is a bit more walk-up friendly than Bros because it's a road trip-action-comedy. So my guess is 500k from previews.

Edited February 22 by el sid

[el sid]

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 221 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 103 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 57 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 43 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 52 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 184 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 275 (6 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 975. Overall a nice number.

Up so-so 27.5% since Monday.
Comps (all films counted for Thursday): The Boy and the Heron (? from previews/5.45M OD including previews, 13M OW) had 456 sold tickets.
Godzilla Minus One (1M Thursday only; 2.1M Wednesday + Thursday) had 285 sold tickets = 2.1M.
And Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero (4.3M from previews) had 1.457 sold tickets = 2.9M (slightly down from on Monday 3.1M).
 

Average from the two comps with preview numbers: 2.5M.
But it lost a bit in the comp(s) since Monday so I would go with 2M+ from my theaters.

Edited February 22 by el sid

[Porthos]

Dune: Part Two now 98/8.6 (out of 122 reviews) over at RT.

 

(man, I sure hope it doesn't get MI7'ed)

((Is MI7 now a verb?  Guess we'll find out!))

Edited February 22 by Porthos

[jeffthehat]

18 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-8	988	11158	62	+9.6%
Fri	T-9	1365	22401	129	+2.9%

Thursday Comps

1.59x The Marvels T-8 (10 theaters) = $10.5m

3.16x Wonka T-8 (10 theaters) = $11.1m 

Friday Comp

1.99x The Marvels T-9 = $29.8m

 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-7	1036	11158	62	+4.8%
Fri	T-8	1413	22401	129	+3.5%

Thursday Comps

1.63x The Marvels T-7 = $10.76m

3.28x Wonka T-7 = $11.48m 

2.05x HG BoSS T-7 = $11.79m

Friday Comp

2.1x The Marvels T-8 = $31.5m

2.37x HG BoSS T-8 = $31.42m

---

 

Pulled a couple hours earlier than yesterday. Hard to tell where this is heading overall. I'm still bullish ($80m-$90m) but we'll see how comps hold this week. 

[filmlover]

After the Lionsgate moves yesterday, this is June now:

 

6/7: The Crow, The Watchers

6/14: Inside Out 2, Bad Boys 4

6/21: The Bikeriders, It Ends With Us

6/28: A Quiet Place Day One, Horizon Part 1

 

Feels like a delay to 2025 is also inevitable for Bad Boys given that there's been no marketing materials or word of a trailer less than 4 months from intended release.

[Issac Newton]

 

“Dune: Part Two is already proving to be a cinematic force, with strong ticket pre-sales, surpassing its predecessor and pacing to be Denis Villeneuve’s largest pre-seller to date,” said Jerramy Hainline, the executive vice president of Fandango. “The excitement surrounding this film is impressive, as we gear up for the biggest opening of 2024 to date.”

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Tinalera]

Kung Fu Panda 4

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

Thurs Mar 7 Fri Mar 8 (T-15 Friday)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	2	8	20	2020	2040	0.0098
	Fri	2	10	112	2438	2550	0.0439
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	3	12	28	3206	3234	0.0086
	Fri	3	12	71	3523	3594	0.0197

 

 

As per usual West city areas always have lesser shows early on for presales. Cant glean much from this as far as any sort of how good/bad its doing, its pretty typical here for a family show 15 days out. as @vafrow commented, March Break should be when it does most of its business