The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[leoh]

27 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I don’t know, i really don’t see much difference at current data to change any predictions tbh. 
 

It would need to kinda crumble to be under 70M at this point and need to kinda explode to get +90 as well. 
 

Both feels unlikely imo so previews seems to be heading exactly as expected (10-ish THU + EA) with very solid presales across the weekend which shows it won’t be super frontloaded, maybe 7.5-7.75 multiplier.
 

I think 80M is still the most likely outcome, which is pretty much what most people are thinking since early days of data. It’s just not turning into a billionaire franchise, neither seems to be staying niche.
 

 

 

Nope 80M is not “the most likely”, if we count the major projections the most likely is around 70M. 80M is like best case scenario right now in those projections.

Edited February 24 by leoh

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

Nope 80M is not “the most likely”, at if count the major projection the most likely is around 70M. 80M is like best case scenario right now.

Yeah sorry but the data is definitely not showing 80M as best case scenario, but ok we don’t need to discuss this. 

[WorkingonaName]

my hot take is they should have just skipped to this movie instead of wasting so much time in the first one.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/23/2024 at 12:50 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-14 Days

 

Previews - 154/31196 (145 showings)

 

Comps

1.75x Elemental - $4.2M

2.08x Trolls 3 - $2.7M

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-13 Days

 

Previews - 171/31196 (145 showings)
 

Comps

1.90x Elemental - $4.5M

2.22x Trolls 3 - $2.9M

0.34x Minions 2 - $3.7M

[HummingLemon496]

Is KP4 gonna open like Shazam 2?

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/23/2024 at 12:45 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune 2 MiniTC2 T-7 Days

 

Thursday - 3061/54989 (215 showings)

 

Comps

1.07x Oppy - $11.2M

0.47x Avatar 2 - $8M

Dune 2 MiniTC2 T-6 Days

 

Thursday - 3289/56171 (217 showings)

 

Comps

1.06x Oppy - $11.1M

0.47x Avatar 2 - $8M

[Boxofficerules]

Kung Fool Panda 4 gonna get its ass kicked by Imaginary 

[Porthos]

On 2/23/2024 at 1:04 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	181	22782	25721	2939	11.43%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	9
Total Net Seats Added Today	808
Total Seats Sold Today	157

 

T-7 Comps

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	56.72		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	25.00%		13.85m
Thor 4	35.52		340	8274		0/240	24544/32818	25.21%		16962	17.33%		10.30m
BP2	33.75		325	8709		2/308	29418/38127	22.84%		16800	17.49%		9.45m
AM3	49.11		201	5984		0/237	26674/32658	18.32%		10475	28.06%		8.60m
GOTG3	63.46		222	4631		0/207	25352/29983	15.45%		10750	27.34%		11.11m
Dune	280.44		66	1048		0/79	11280/12328	8.50%		2915	100.82%		14.30m
TGM	49.45		373	5943		0/271	31366/37309	15.93%		11474	25.61%		9.52m
JWD	75.65		314	3885		0/223	23869/27754	14.00%		10966	26.80%		13.62m
Ava 2	70.75		232	4154		0/184	21975/26129	15.90%		8986	32.71%		12.03m
Wick 4	168.52		161	1744		0/113	13827/15571	11.20%		5448	53.95%		15.00m
Fast X	198.58		43	1480		0/179	26661/28141	5.26%		4122	71.30%		14.89m
TLM	121.35		170	2422		0/168	21392/23814	10.17%		6561	44.80%		12.50m
Indy 5	163.10		92	1802		0/134	18905/20707	8.70%		4767	61.65%		11.74m
Oppy	153.23		170	1918		0/73	8229/10147	18.90%		4621	63.60%		16.09m
Bats Tue EA T-3	101.14		13	701		0/3	114/815	86.01%		743	95.42%		2.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:        821/7852  [10.46% sold]
Matinee:    115/2840  [4.05% | 3.91% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          709/814  [87.10% sold] [+9 tickets]
Thr:    2230/24907  [8.95% sold] [+148 tickets]
PLF:    2314/10189  [22.71% | 78.73% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

As of tonight's sales, Dune: Part Two has now officially passed the final sales total of Dune at stop of tracking.

 

Not much else to add as comps are more or less doing what I expect them to do right now, movement wise.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	185	23280	26397	3117	11.81%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	676
Total Seats Sold Today	178

 

T-6 Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	57.70		220	5402		0/297	31388/36790	14.68%		11757	26.51%		14.09m
Thor 4	35.96		393	8667		0/249	24865/33532	25.85%		16962	18.38%		10.43m
BP2	34.24		395	9104		2/308	29023/38127	23.88%		16800	18.55%		9.59m
AM3	50.40		200	6184		0/249	27442/33626	18.39%		10475	29.76%		8.82m
GOTG3	63.00		317	4948		0/226	26866/31814	15.55%		10750	29.00%		11.02m
Dune	273.18		93	1141		0/79	11187/12328	9.26%		2915	106.93%		13.93m
TGM	49.15		399	6342		0/271	30967/37309	17.00%		11474	27.17%		9.47m
JWD	74.75		285	4170		0/223	23587/27757	15.02%		10966	28.42%		13.45m
Ava 2	71.00		236	4390		0/184	21739/26129	16.80%		8986	34.69%		12.07m
Wick 4	164.23		154	1898		0/113	13673/15571	12.19%		5448	57.21%		14.62m
Fast X	199.68		81	1561		0/179	26583/28144	5.55%		4122	75.62%		14.98m
TLM	121.14		151	2573		0/173	21977/24550	10.48%		6561	47.51%		12.48m
Indy 5	166.24		73	1875		0/134	18832/20707	9.05%		4767	65.39%		11.97m
Oppy	150.51		153	2071		0/75	8239/10310	20.09%		4621	67.45%		15.80m
Bats Tue EA T-2	101.98		5	706		0/3	109/815	86.63%		743	96.90%		2.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       859/7852  [10.94% sold]
Matinee:    115/2840  [4.05% | 3.69% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          720/814  [88.45% sold] [+11 tickets]
Thr:    2397/25583  [9.37% sold] [+167 tickets]
PLF:    2426/10215  [23.75% | 77.83% of all tickets sold]

Edited February 25 by Porthos

[vale9001]

Dune US numbers will be good and with great legs (200M domestic are coming).

 

Where is gonna shine is globally. The increases from first movie will be bigger than in the US.

Markets like europe showed lately they want adult movies and quality

Edited February 24 by vale9001

[iEnri]

7 hours ago, leoh said:

 

Nope 80M is not “the most likely”, if we count the major projections the most likely is around 70M. 80M is like best case scenario right now in those projections.

MI7, one of the best trackers here with a lot of comps, is predicting 80M as is multiple other trackers (even though there are also trackers predicting 75M) they are surely more reliable than you. So no, 80M is not the best case scenario, at this point 90M is the best one. 

[Speedorito]

3 hours ago, vale9001 said:

Dune US numbers will be good and with great legs (200M domestic are coming).

 

Where is gonna shine is globally. The increases from first movie will be bigger than in the US.

Markets like europe showed lately they want adult movies and quality

Why would it grow more outside the US when the first one had day and date release in the US to bring down the numbers?

[vafrow]

On 2/23/2024 at 6:22 AM, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-7 Thursday previews and T-3 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 609

New Sales: 38

Growth: 6.7%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 13.8

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 8/11

Early Evening: 451/21

Late Evening: 150/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 156/8

IMAX: 306/4

VIP: 128/12

Regular: 6/21

4dx: 13/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.394 of Marvels for $9.2M

2.900 of HG: BoSS for $16.7M

 

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 573

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 5

Growth: 0.9%

 

Not a particularly exciting day. The EA shows growth is messed up a bit because I think I overcounted yesterday.

 

I think at this stage though, we won't see a lor of growth until after the EA show. That's been grabbing a lot of the new sales, even with limited capacity available.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-6 Thursday previews and T-2 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 655

New Sales: 46

Growth: 7.6%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 14.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 10/11

Early Evening: 477/21

Late Evening: 168/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 171/8

IMAX: 323/4

VIP: 141/12

Regular: 7/21

4dx: 13/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.433 of Marvels for $9.5M

2.873 of HG: BoSS for $16.5M

 

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 610

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 37

Growth: 6.5%

 

I tried to see if I could do any better with comps, but nothing jumps out as more suitable. At this stage, the growth has been largely consistent, and everything else I have that might be suitable had a shorter cycle and a steeper curve.

 

One thing worth noting, is that since Wednesday when 25 new showtimes were added, 20 of those have seen zero sales. The other 5 have sold just 20 of the 146 new tickets sold in that time frame. 

 

It leaves plenty of capacity for walk-ups, but I suspect that there's going to be a lot of empty capacity here, while the IMAX theatres are sold out. 

 

I imagine a lot of contradicting personal anecdotes are coming, of some talking about watching this in a packed house, and others watching in empty theatres.

 

Edited February 24 by vafrow

[Youngstar]

8 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

Why would it grow more outside the US when the first one had day and date release in the US to bring down the numbers?

I predict a pretty big growth here in Germany. At that time you still had a ton of COVID restrictions, like having to show a valid negative test to enter and it still had 1.8M tickets sold(4th highest of 2021).

I imagine it's the same in other countries.

[vafrow]

On 2/23/2024 at 6:25 AM, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-14 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 48

New Sales: 8

Growth: 20%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 11/2

Early Evening: 24/5

Late Evening: 10/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 33/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 9/1

 

Comps

2.087x Wonka for $7.3M

 

Continues at a steady pace.

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-13 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 54

New Sales: 6

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 11/2

Early Evening: 27/5

Late Evening: 13/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 39/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 9/1

 

Comps

2.250x Wonka for $7.9M

 

Steady drip continues.

[Minnale101]

Yeahhh I really haven’t seen my friends talk about dune 2 for hype purposes, great rotten tomatoes score 

 

but even arrival had amazing one and didn’t really break out, a alien movie. GA love aliens lol

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

Kung Fool Panda 4 gonna get its ass kicked by Imaginary 

 

14 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

Imaginary is going to own Dune Part 2.

The shlocky-looking evil teddy bear movie:

 

[vale9001]

2 hours ago, Speedorito said:

Why would it grow more outside the US when the first one had day and date release in the US to bring down the numbers?

Cause americans love less adult movies 😌

[Daxtreme]

1 hour ago, Minnale101 said:

Yeahhh I really haven’t seen my friends talk about dune 2 for hype purposes, great rotten tomatoes score 

 

but even arrival had amazing one and didn’t really break out, a alien movie. GA love aliens lol

 

That's it pack it up folks, we got the data we needed

[Maaatt]

2 hours ago, vale9001 said:

Cause americans love less adult movies 😌

Yes the international love relative to

the US for the fast & furious franchise truly screams this.  🥴

[TheFlatLannister]

15 hours ago, DInky said:

Really feels like Dune has a hard ceiling when it comes to interest from the general audience.

Was kind of interested in the pace of Dune 2 vs other big title films in Orlando and: it's not collapsing, but growth is seriously bottlenecked. Could be EA sales bottlenecking sales or it could just be all the fans already bought tickets and the next wave of ticket sales will come during walkups...

 

Based on current pace, I would say Dune will finish with 4.5k tickets sold which would come out to ~$9M pure Thursday with Oppenheimer comp