The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-6	1093	11158	62	+5.5%
Fri	T-7	1511	22401	129	+6.9%

Thursday Comps

1.65x The Marvels T-6 = $10.9m

3.52x Wonka T-6 = $12.3m 

2.01x HG BoSS T-6 = $11.6m

Friday Comps

2.22x The Marvels T-7 = $33.3m

2.46x HG BoSS T-7 = $32.7m

 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-5	1150	11158	62	+5.2%
Fri	T-6	1614	22401	129	+6.8%

Thursday Comps

1.69x The Marvels T-5 = $11.2m

1.98x HG BoSS T-5 = $11.4m

3.66x Wonka T-5 = $12.8m

Friday Comps

2.27x The Marvels T-6 = $34.0m

2.44x HG BoSS T-6 = $32.3m

---

Guessing the comps I have will point to ~$11m Thu only at finish. 

[Tinalera]

Just adding my 2 cents to the Dune 2-it wouldnt surprise me to see this play out like *way back machine here* Kill Bill Vol 1 and 2 (which was essentially one lone movie cut in half). I seem to recall that it Vol 2 made almost exactly as much as Vol 1, to the point I remember remarking on ti myself-about "wow, pretty much the same people who watched 1 watched 2-no more no less". Not saying Dune 2 will do this, but it will be interesting to see if this literally plays out as a "Dune movie cut in 2 parts" and we get almost identical box office. 

 

I say this compared to sequels which are essentially different stories different stories with same characters. 

 

Dont ask me about LOTR-that's its own beast lol

Edited February 24 by Tinalera

[Mr Roark]

Part 2 will double Part 1 gross.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1174	46	1353	86.77%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

603

2092

28.82%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

547

2137

25.60%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2836	148	20791	13.64%	13	106

 

2.732	Indiana Jones T-6	19.67M
0.877	Guardians T-6	15.35M

0.892	Batman T-6*	19.27M
2.034	Dune Part 1 T-6	10.38M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1224	50	1353	90.47%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

642

2092

30.69%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

566

2137

26.49%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3002	164	20791	14.44%	13	106

 

0.871

Guardians T-5

15.25M

0.735

Avatar 2 T-5

12.49M

0.881	Batman T-5*	19.04M
2.016	Dune Part 1 T-5	10.28M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-6 Thursday

206 Showings

11362

+443

29023

ATP:

17.82

1.921	Indiana Jones T-6	13.83M
1.007	Guardians T-6	17.62M

0.982	Batman T-6*	17.29M
3.534	Dune Part 1 T-6	18.02M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-7 Friday

272 Showings

13150

+571

39555

ATP:

17.51

2.443	Indiana Jones T-7	41.05M
1.324	Guardians T-7	40.51M

1.135	Batman T-7	39.81M
2.866	Dune Part 1 T-7	35.54M

 

T-8 Saturday

281 Showings

15183

+594

40920

ATP:

17.02

2.914	Indiana Jones T-8	54.15M
1.402	Guardians T-8	54.51M

1.314	Batman T-8	56.86M
3.823	Dune Part 1 T-8	52.44M

 

T-9 Sunday

253 Showings

10362

+472

36648

ATP:

16.99

3.282	Indiana Jones T-9	59.41M
1.714	Guardians T-9	53.86M

1.939	Batman T-9	66.21M
3.507	Dune Part 1 T-9	34.29M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-5 Thursday

206 Showings

11774

+412

29023

ATP:

17.77

0.978	Guardians T-5	17.12M
1.721	Avatar T-5	29.25M

0.974

Batman T-5*

17.15M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-6 Friday

272 Showings

13694

+544

39555

ATP:

17.45

1.258	Guardians T-6	38.48M
1.542	Avatar T-6	55.81M

1.094

Batman T-6

38.39M

 

T-7 Saturday

281 Showings

16036

+853

40920

ATP:

16.95

1.319	Guardians T-7	51.28M
1.622	Avatar T-7	71.91M

1.238

Batman T-7

53.55M

 

T-8 Sunday

253 Showings

10998

+636

36648

ATP:

16.97

1.667	Guardians T-8	52.38M
1.768	Avatar T-8	64.64M

1.819

Batman T-8

62.10M

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/23/2024 at 3:29 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-6 Thursday

109 Showings

1966

+156

18354

1.698

Indiana Jones T-6

12.22M

 

T-7 Friday

166 Showings

2862

+270

28338

2.670

Indiana Jones T-7

44.85M

 

T-8 Saturday

172 Showings

2739

+304

29462

4.882

Indiana Jones T-8

90.71M

 

T-9 Sunday

176 Showings

1180

+131

29236

5.086

Indiana Jones T-9

92.06M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-5 Thursday

109 Showings

2152

+186

18353

 

T-6 Friday

166 Showings

3218

+356

28340

 

T-7 Saturday

172 Showings

3113

+374

29454

 

T-8 Sunday

176 Showings

1369

+189

29220

[leoh]

10 hours ago, iEnri said:

MI7, one of the best trackers here with a lot of comps, is predicting 80M as is multiple other trackers (even though there are also trackers predicting 75M) they are surely more reliable than you. So no, 80M is not the best case scenario, at this point 90M is the best one. 

80M is the best case scenario (this means it’s something that might happen according some projections) 

 

90M is not likely according to projections.

 

it’s up to you though if you wanna believe right now 90M is a realistic scenario. I wouldn’t mind good movies deserve good box office. 

[Wotad]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Just adding my 2 cents to the Dune 2-it wouldnt surprise me to see this play out like *way back machine here* Kill Bill Vol 1 and 2 (which was essentially one lone movie cut in half). I seem to recall that it Vol 2 made almost exactly as much as Vol 1, to the point I remember remarking on ti myself-about "wow, pretty much the same people who watched 1 watched 2-no more no less". Not saying Dune 2 will do this, but it will be interesting to see if this literally plays out as a "Dune movie cut in 2 parts" and we get almost identical box office. 

 

I say this compared to sequels which are essentially different stories different stories with same characters. 

 

Dont ask me about LOTR-that's its own beast lol

 

That doesn't seem possible in this scenario where Dune 2 is nearly doubling the 1sts weekend gross

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/23/2024 at 6:46 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
591	6950	112287	6.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

379

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2704

*151 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(1.070x) of Oppenheimer $11.23M 

(0.477x) of Barbie $10.08M 

(0.584x) of ATSV $10.14M 

(2.319x) of Wonka $8.12M 

(2.339x) of Aquaman 2 $10.53M 

 

Comps average: $10.02M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
591	7320	112287	6.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

370

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2852

*148 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.090x) of Oppenheimer $11.45M 

(0.457x) of Barbie $9.65M 

(0.579x) of ATSV $10.05M 

(2.345x) of Aquaman 2 $10.55M 

 

Comps average: $10.45M

 

Good news, it increased against Oppenheimer today for the first time in a while. Still decreasing quickly against Barbie and ATSV. Removed Wonka because that comp was at $8M

[iEnri]

Is it possible that that review bump for thursday hasnt been that big because EA is also increasing and it will go above expecations tomorrow?

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/18/2024 at 7:16 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA

 

DUNE 2 IMAX EA

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
26	2447	5707	43.8%

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

617 seats sold over the past week-ish 

 

Continues to do super well considering all desirable seats are gone 

FLORIDA

 

DUNE 2 IMAX EA

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
26	3735	5707	65.4%

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

1288 seats sold over the past week-ish 

 

Super strong EA sales continue 

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

80M is the best case scenario (this means it’s something that might happen according some projections) 

 

90M is not likely according to projections.

 

it’s up to you though if you wanna believe right now 90M is a realistic scenario. I wouldn’t mind good movies deserve good box office. 

Do you know what best case scenario means? It doesn't mean likely, it means unlikely but possible. 11x8 takes it to 88 mil OW. Add in EA sales, that takes it to 90. None of the projections so far rule this from happening out at all.

Edited February 25 by lorddemaxus

[HummingLemon496]

57 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
591	7320	112287	6.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

370

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2852

*148 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.090x) of Oppenheimer $11.45M 

(0.457x) of Barbie $9.65M 

(0.579x) of ATSV $10.05M 

(2.345x) of Aquaman 2 $10.55M 

 

Comps average: $10.45M

 

Good news, it increased against Oppenheimer today for the first time in a while. Still decreasing quickly against Barbie and ATSV. Removed Wonka because that comp was at $8M

Speaking of which I think ATSV had a lot of late growth, presales were like 40% of GOTG 3 at first I think but it ended up opening higher

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
591	7320	112287	6.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

370

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2852

*148 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.090x) of Oppenheimer $11.45M 

(0.457x) of Barbie $9.65M 

(0.579x) of ATSV $10.05M 

(2.345x) of Aquaman 2 $10.55M 

 

Comps average: $10.45M

 

Good news, it increased against Oppenheimer today for the first time in a while. Still decreasing quickly against Barbie and ATSV. Removed Wonka because that comp was at $8M

Are all your comps just Orlando or is something like Aquabro 2 is for entire Florida. Problem with Orlando is outsized impact of 1 theater where family/SH movies tend to over index. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Very good last couple of days in regionals for Dune 2. The pace jump after reviews has sustained.

[iEnri]

Tomorrow is the last push, with the last red carpet in New York, US premiere (EA). Lets see if we get a final jump from WOM!

Edited February 25 by iEnri

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are all your comps just Orlando or is something like Aquabro 2 is for entire Florida. Problem with Orlando is outsized impact of 1 theater where family/SH movies tend to over index. 

just Orlando. Don't have reliable comps yet for all of Florida. Dune seems to be doing really well at Disney Springs 

[ando]

Dune: Part Two T-5

 

Toronto Scotiabank Theatre (IMAX only)

 

+195 tickets sold (since T-7)

 

Thu- 770 (+32)

Fri- 1004 (+64)

Sat- 1121 (+41)

Sun- 975 (+58)

 

3875 tickets sold for the weekend. Total weekend is 63% sold out (+3%). 

 

IMAX screen sales looking strong into the week as well. Monday 6:30 pm show is 65% sold out, Tuesday at 75% sold out. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 40690/55706 792917.22 182 shows +2804

Previews(T-6) - 76692/551793 1487194.52 2787 shows +3087

Friday - 82183/804949 1579019.53 4060 shows +5589

Saturday - 84191/845099 1548432.15 +5474 

 

Sunday shows are definitely taking away thursday sales for now. Anyway Its looking at around 50K tickets/~950K at MTC1 for Sunday. That should be around half of rest of US as its also playing in many museum imax along with multiplexes. Including Canada based on Charlie's numbers I would say 2m early shows.  

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 43763/55706 849027.99 182 shows +3073

Previews(T-5) - 80224/553651 1550141.86 2809 shows +3532

Friday -  88344/808399 1688691.96 4083 shows +6161

Saturday - 92163/849882 1682717.53 4296 shows +7972

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 43763/55706 849027.99 182 shows +3073

Previews(T-5) - 80224/553651 1550141.86 2809 shows +3532

Friday -  88344/808399 1688691.96 4083 shows +6161

Saturday - 92163/849882 1682717.53 4296 shows +7972

Weirdly enough MTC 1 not showing the strong numbers that regionals are.