The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vale9001]

So we Need to wait the Summer season to have a movie opening bigger than The eras tour?.

Deadpool 3 clearly will make it. Inside out 2 has chances to make It before that? 

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
591	7725	112287	6.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

405

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2996

*144 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(1.057x) of Oppenheimer $11.10M 

(0.445x) of Barbie $9.39M 

(0.540x) of ATSV $9.37M 

(2.370x) of Aquaman 2 $10.67M 

 

Comps average: $10.13M

 

It's T-4 and i'm still not seeing much in terms of pace. Decreased against all comps except Aquaman 2 

 

Oppenheimer comp will likely fall under $11M for the first time tomorrow 

 

@M37 It's going to be tight, but I think you're right. 5K threshold seems likely assuming Dune can sell 1k seats in the final day.

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
617	8534	122580	7.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

809

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

26

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

3355

*359 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.073x) of Oppenheimer $11.30M 

(0.558x) of ATSV $9.68M 

(0.436x) of Barbie $9.20M 

(2.403x) of Aquaman 2 $10.81M 

 

Comps average: $10.25M

 

Really solid growth in Florida and Orlando. Still no signs of it "exploding" though. It increased slightly again, against Oppenheimer. Does look like $10M+ is happening. 

[M37]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

I am chewing on where Dune 2 will end up for thursday. 

 

Monday - 12K // Preview PS was depressed due to Sunday shows. 

Tuesday - 15K

Wednesday - 18K

Thursday - 65k

 

i see it close around 200K for around 11m Thursday gross and around 13m overall if WB choose to club the Sunday BO with thursday previews. . For those comparing this movie with any other movie not named Avatar, it will have higher ATP than most movies. Even Oppenheimer did not have all PLF to get its ATP as high as possible. I would give it a 10% boost with all other movies. if you are comparing with family movies the ATP differential would be even higher. Something like Freddys will need to be boosted by 20%+.

 

Today's update will confirm if I am way off or not. 

The average of the films I'm looking would be something like

 

T-3 = 97K (+9.5K)

T-2 = 109K (+12K)

T-1 = 126K (+17K)

T-F = 182K (+56K)

 

Expecting final day growth to be in range of standard big release +45%, so to get to 200K final would need to be in range of 138K by T-1, or have better than average final day. Sales should at least double between last update (86K) and final, so that's the floor

[The Wild Eric]

Quorum Updates

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-25: 55.99%

Tarot T-74: 18.98%

Horizon: An American Saga Part 1 T-123: 21.88%

Kraven the Hunter T-186: 28.04%

 

Dune: Part Two T-4: 61.09% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 65% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 35% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 60M, 43% chance of 70M, 29% chance of 100M

 

Cabrini T-11: 16.79% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Imaginary T-11: 34.41% Awareness

Final Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 45% chance of 10M, 9% chance of 20M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-11: 67.08% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 65% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 35% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 75% chance of 70M, 50% chance of 100M

 

The First Omen T-39: 29.89% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 71% chance of 10M, 29% chance of 20M

 

Challengers T-60: 20.2% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M

[iEnri]

Is 90M for Dune dead or is it still possible?

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

The average of the films I'm looking would be something like

 

T-3 = 97K (+9.5K)

T-2 = 109K (+12K)

T-1 = 126K (+17K)

T-F = 182K (+56K)

 

Expecting final day growth to be in range of standard big release +45%, so to get to 200K final would need to be in range of 138K by T-1, or have better than average final day. Sales should at least double between last update (86K) and final, so that's the floor

Ok. We will see. At least I can say for sure you are wrong about T-3 🙂

[von Kenni]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

I am chewing on where Dune 2 will end up for thursday. 

 

Monday - 12K // Preview PS was depressed due to Sunday shows. 

Tuesday - 15K

Wednesday - 18K

Thursday - 65k

 

i see it close around 200K for around 11m Thursday gross and around 13m overall if WB choose to club the Sunday BO with thursday previews. . For those comparing this movie with any other movie not named Avatar, it will have higher ATP than most movies. Even Oppenheimer did not have all PLF to get its ATP as high as possible. I would give it a 10% boost with all other movies. if you are comparing with family movies the ATP differential would be even higher. Something like Freddys will need to be boosted by 20%+.

 

Today's update will confirm if I am way off or not. 

 

1 hour ago, M37 said:

The average of the films I'm looking would be something like

 

T-3 = 97K (+9.5K)

T-2 = 109K (+12K)

T-1 = 126K (+17K)

T-F = 182K (+56K)

 

Expecting final day growth to be in range of standard big release +45%, so to get to 200K final would need to be in range of 138K by T-1, or have better than average final day. Sales should at least double between last update (86K) and final, so that's the floor

 

So basically you're anticipating Thu previews between $10m and $11m with these numbers (not saying it couldn't go under or over).

 

Playing with numbers I could get OW between

 

10*7.5+2 = $77m

 

and

 

11*8.1+2= $91.1m

 

midpoint being $84m which could be reached by e.g. 10.5*7.8+2

 

I'd take any of these numbers. Shai-Hulud is pleased.

 

 

 

 

[M37]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ok. We will see. At least I can say for sure you are wrong about T-3 🙂

To be clear, those figures were not a prediction, more setting a baseline for comparison purposes. Between whatever demand was being fulfilled by the Sun EA shows and the corresponding WOM bump, today should see a boost vs those comps; atypical timeline can produce an atypical result 

 

But it may just serve as a defacto review bump effect (or post-EA Thur bump) that some of those other titles had coming later in the week, rather than the start of a new trajectory, and later return back to that baseline 

[rehpyc]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I hope @rehpyc also resurfaces this week and provide updates 🙂

 

4 hours ago, rehpyc said:

 

Tonight. Someone feel free to PM me comps.

 

I guess I'm really just here to confirm what the other great trackers have indicated.. current trajectories of each of the mentioned comps are looking around a 10M average (excluding EA) should their current growth patterns remain. Avatar, Dune, and Oppenheimer are particularly flat and likely the best indicators, indicating a range about 9-10M, with Oppenheimer edging that lower end.

 

Dune 2 T-7 to T-4 (excluding EA)

Oppenheimer: 9.65, 9.46, 9.28, 9.09

Avatar 2: 9.60, 9.59, 9.61, 9.52

Dune 1: 10.13, 10.06, 10.01, 10.02

Jurassic World 😧 15.26, 14.82, 14.46, 13.85

Barbie: 16.70, 15.63, 14.77, 13.73

[HummingLemon496]

So is Dune going to do $10M previews + $2M EA for $12M? And then can it get a 7x IM?

[leoh]

2 hours ago, iEnri said:

Is 90M for Dune dead or is it still possible?

It’s not sure yet if it really can get 80M let alone 90M lol

 

Yet it will def be bigger than those 65M Deadline predicted last week.

[HummingLemon496]

Nah, $80M is easy-sause . It's aiming for $12M previews and an $84M opening weekend, similar to Logan (2017)

Edited February 27 by HummingLemon496

[crazymoviekid]

Dune Part II:

 

NJ-Based Thursday Predictions:

 

Theater 1: 23 Tickets

Theater 2: 43 Tickets

 

HG:BoSaS: $5.93M

KotFM: $5.54M

Oppenheimer: $2.60M

JW4: $5.93M

A:TWoW: $5.91M

 

Look at that convergence!!! While much lower than all the other trackers, we're looking at a consistent $5.5M-$6M here😬

Edited February 27 by crazymoviekid

[emoviefan]

So nothing has changed a good to great opening that will still  seem underwhelming because we want more and want the GA to care more than they probably do. 

[dallas]

Dune: Part Two

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-3

Tickets Sold: 285 (+37)

Growth: 15%

% PLF: 37%

5 theaters/29 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.738x) of Aquaman 2 - $7.82 Million

(2.298x) of Wonka - $8.04 Million

(1.647x) of Madame Web - $10.13 Million

(6.196x) of Argylle - $10.53 Million

COMPS AVG - $9.13 Million

 

Well, unfortunately it looks like the highest this will hit will be around $10M. I still think $80M is likely fwiw. Presales remain strong throughout the weekend. 

[dallas]

Kung Fu Panda 4

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-10

Tickets Sold: 21 (+3)

Growth: 17%

% PLF: n/a

5 theaters/18 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.909x) of Migration - $2.86 Million

 

The interest for this movie is simply non-existent. It's a shame that this movie is looking to continue the trend of each Kung Fu Panda movie grossing less than its predecessor. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows Final - 47397/55706 914581.85 182 shows +3634

Previews(T-4) - 86404/554093 1659675.30 2814 shows +6180

Friday - 98029/808399 1860059.53 4083 shows +9685

Saturday - 102841/849882 1862895.15 4296 shows +10678

 

~2m ish early BO as expected. Not sure if studio would even separate it out or add it to previews or even just friday BO as some studios have done. Anyway headwind for thursday ticket sales is gone and I am expecting big acceleration tomorrow with double boost coming from early WOM from fan screenings. 

 

Based on saturday number and pace and expected show times, I am expecting 30m+ BO that day. Let us see how presales go next 2 days to confirm my expectations 🙂.  

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 99792/633512 1894981.98 3419 shows +13388 

Friday - 116242/968402 2176469.22 5141 shows +18213

Saturday - 121411/994658 2174075.71 5272 shows +18570

 

While the increase seem outrageous, its under 40% from Thu+Sunday numbers from yesterday. But as @M37 said 1 day does not make a trend and so let us see how tomorrow goes. But I stick to my prediction made earlier today/ 

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, dallas said:

Kung Fu Panda 4

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-10

Tickets Sold: 21 (+3)

Growth: 17%

% PLF: n/a

5 theaters/18 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.909x) of Migration - $2.86 Million

 

The interest for this movie is simply non-existent. It's a shame that this movie is looking to continue the trend of each Kung Fu Panda movie grossing less than its predecessor. 

I would not be surprised by a Shazam 2 run tbh. Movie is DOA lmao

Edited February 27 by HummingLemon496

[KP1025]

19 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I would not be surprised by a Shazam 2 run tbh. Movie is DOA lmao

 

It's an animated film releasing during Spring Break after a dearth of kids-targeted films. It shouldn't have any trouble crossing $100 milllion DOM given the lack of competition.

[Boxofficerules]

3 hours ago, Eric Web said:

 

 

Imaginary T-11: 34.41% Awareness

Final Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 45% chance of 10M, 9% chance of 20M

 

What happened here, this shot down,