The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

Dune: Part Two, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 356 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 612 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 141 (11 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 72 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 238 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 973 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.499 (13 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.891.

Up mediocre 11.5% since yesterday.
Comps (all movies counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday): Dune (5.1M from previews) had 2.519 sold tickets = 7.9M/ca. 9M (?) inflation-adjusted.
G: A (4.5M) had 1.437 = 12.2M.
Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.294 = 11.1M.
JWD (18M) had 4.342 = 16.1M.

The Creator (1.6M) had 1.120 = 5.6M.
And SC (8.8M) had 3.617 sold tickets = 9.5M.

Average: 10.4M Thursday (without EA). Dune comp only: Ca. 9M.

Edited February 29 by el sid

[Porthos]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	242	25728	30738	5010	16.30%

 

Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	470
Total Seats Sold Today	577

 

T-1 "Anchor" Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	237.78		365	2107		0/109	12686/14793	14.24%		2915	171.87%		12.13m
Ava 2	69.19		971	7241		0/309	27735/34976	20.70%		8986	55.75%		11.76m
Oppy	135.15		594	3707		1/80	7152/10859	34.14%		4621	108.42%		14.19m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-1 Mostly Pace Purposes Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	52.52		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	42.61%		12.82m
Thor 4	37.07		2246	13516		0/312	25975/39491	34.23%		16962	29.54%		10.75m
BP2	36.78		1695	13622		2/375	29516/43138	31.58%		16800	29.82%		10.30m
AM3	57.89		979	8654		0/305	28519/37173	23.28%		10475	47.83%		10.13m
GOTG3	59.91		1174	8363		0/343	33312/41675	20.07%		10750	46.60%		10.48m
TGM	51.88		945	9656		2/345	33356/43012	22.45%		11474	43.66%		9.99m
JWD	59.51		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	45.69%		10.71m
Wick 4	127.97		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	91.96%		11.39m
Fast X	171.11		545	2928		0/243	30319/33247	8.81%		4122	121.54%		12.83m
TLM	100.72		1002	4974		0/225	24182/29156	17.06%		6561	76.36%		10.37m
Indy 5	142.94		613	3505		0/184	21339/24844	14.11%		4767	105.10%		10.29m
Oppy	135.15		594	3707		1/80	7152/10859	34.14%		4621	108.42%		14.19m
Bats Tue EA	106.19		——	743		0/3	72/815	91.17%		743	106.19%		2.12m

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       1265/9860  [12.83% sold]
Matinee:      193/3555  [5.43% | 3.85% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:               789/814  [96.93% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:          4221/29924  [14.11% sold] [+577 tickets]
PLF:          3355/10865  [30.88% | 66.97% of all tickets sold]
Thr PLF:    2566/10051  [25.53% sold | 60.79% of Thr tickets sold]

 

======

 

Yeaaaah, honestly want to see a bit more.  Second day in a row that the pace against Dune is dropping (T-2: 1.78x |  T-1: 1.58x).

 

Doing some checks against the final totals of Avatar: The Way of Water and Oppenheimer need around 6200-6250 total tickets sold for 10m Thursday (presuming a 2m Sun), so about 1,200 to 1,250 tomorrow by end of tracking.  For comparison, Dune sold 808 tickets on its T-0 (later stop time for tracking, but also day and date considerations), so D2 have to do about 1.5x T-0 Dune to have a fighting chance. 

 

A check against Dune proper tells me that 6200-6250 would only spit out around 11m or so (including EA).  However if I use the 2021 to 2023 ATP adjustment I've been using for films like GBA  (1.13047x), 6250 total tickets sold spits out 12.36m (again, including EA), or about 10.3(-ish)m for Thur.

 

Sooooo... Yeah.  6200=6250 might be the target.  Gun to my head, not sure it reaches it.  But not not sure, either.  Not trending in the right direction, at any rate.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	244	25489	30883	5394	17.47%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	2
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	145
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	384

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) "Anchor" Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune [12:00-12:20]	225.60		284	2391		0/109	12402/14793	16.16%		2915	185.04%		11.51m
Ava 2 [11:30-12:15]	68.22		666	7907		0/310	27128/35035	22.57%		8986	60.03%		11.60m
Oppy [12:15-12:25]	132.40		367	4074		2/80	6785/10859	37.52%		4621	116.73%		13.90m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Mostly Pace Purposes Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats [11:30-12:35]	51.48		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	45.88%		12.57m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	36.19		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	31.80%		10.49m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	36.58		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	32.11%		10.24m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	57.43		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	51.49%		10.05m
Flash [11:45-12:15]	126.89		634	4251		0/205	22721/26972	15.76%		5327	101.26%		12.31m
GOTG3[11:30-12:20]	58.64		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	50.18%		10.26m
TGM [11:30-12:30]	52.05		707	10363		2/345	32649/43012	24.09%		11474	47.01%		10.02m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	56.84		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	49.19%		10.23m
Wick 4 [11:45-12:20]	124.14		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	99.01%		11.05m
Fast X [11:30-12:05]	158.41		477	3405		0/243	29842/33247	10.24%		4122	130.86%		11.88m
TLM [11:40-12:15]	96.27		629	5603		0/225	23553/29156	19.22%		6561	82.21%		9.92m
Indy 5 [11:45-12:15]	135.43		478	3983		0/183	20730/24713	16.12%		4767	113.15%		9.75m
Bats Tue EA	106.19		——	743		0/3	72/815	91.17%		743	106.19%		2.12m

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:     1382/9860  [14.02% sold]
Matinee:    263/3555  [7.40% | 4.88% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:                 789/814  [96.93% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:          4605/30069  [15.31% sold] [+384 tickets]
PLF:          3528/10865  [32.47% | 65.41% of all tickets sold]
Thr PLF:    2739/10051  [27.25% sold | 59.48% of Thr tickets sold]

 

====

 

Yeaaaah, not seeing what I'd like for a 10m True Thursday.  Probably gunning closer to 9.5m.  ATP thanks to all of the PLFs is a big wildcard, though.  More thoughts at final report.

Edited February 29 by Porthos

[ThomasNicole]

I feel the worries on this thread about Dune performance is because it’s clearly an ongoing story that needs a 3rd part, but once again there’s this feeling that if Part II doesn’t succeed enough, Messiah won’t be made. 
 

Voldemort said on his Twitter that it’s already greenlit, so maybe it’s time to just accept the numbers without being fearful about them.
 

From what i see, while ATP can ended up pushing +10M previews, it does have meh final days and feels more likely to ended up with 9.5 or something. Still weekend sales are strong enough that 8x IM seems quite likely, the very long running time can help with that.
 

An OW towards mid 70’s isn’t bad, even if it didn’t turn out to be the new savior of cinema that the collapsing industry asks from every movie now.

[Porthos]

GxK showtimes starting to appear (not yet for sale), 3pm previews.

[keysersoze123]

This is 315AM show at Lincoln Sq. New York never sleeps for sure.

 

Edited February 29 by keysersoze123

[leoh]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

really good opening for a animation!!!!

[rehpyc]

23 hours ago, rehpyc said:

A bit late on providing an update on this from yesterday's sales, but I'm trying to stay on top of things as best I can for you all.

 

Dune 2 T-3 to T-2 (excluding EA)

Oppenheimer: 9.40, 9.38

Avatar 2: 10.22, 10.52

Dune 1: 10.34, 10.36

Jurassic World: apparently I deleted it?

Barbie: 13.28, 12.64

Dune 2 T-1 (excluding EA)

Oppenheimer: 8.98

Avatar 2: 10.58

Dune1: 10.12

Barbie: 11.32

 

Somewhere around 10 still seems about right.

[leoh]

34 minutes ago, Porthos said:

GxK showtimes starting to appear (not yet for sale), 3pm previews.

 

Ghostbusters is now on sale. Here in AMC NY theaters it started surprisingly  well, an even better first 6 hours hours than One Love. However One Love final 5 days of previews pre sales performed insanely well even in NY even better than Dune.

Edited February 29 by leoh

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
727	11476	146907	7.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1415

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

4013

*336 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.996x) of Oppenheimer $10.45M 

(2.163x) of Aquaman $9.74M 

(0.484x) of ATSV $8.39M 

Comps average: $9.53M

 

Yeah, growth is just meh. There just hasn't been much of an acceleration. Show count is still going up. Oppenheimer has officially overtaken Dune 2 in overall sales. @M37 Don't think 5k seats sold is happening. Maybe 4.8k if things really pick up tomorrow. 

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
727	13644	146907	9.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2168

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

4754

*741 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.904x) of Oppenheimer $9.49M 

(2.142x) of Aquaman $9.64M 

(1.046x) of RoTB $9.21M 

Comps average: $9.45M

 

Just a terrible finish, not much else can be said that hasn't already. Not seeing $10M, looks more like $9.5M and that's what I will go with. WB will probably report it as $11.5M

Now, let's see how it goes with walkups tonight

 

* ATSV just left it in the dust so I removed it (It was at $7.38M)* 

I didn't even hit the low end of my prediction of 4.8k @M37

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-1 Thursday

156 Showings

3827

+564

23018

0.775

Oppenheimer T-1

8.14M

 

T-2 Friday

301 Showings

6327

+1105

42749

0.853

Oppenheimer T-2

19.21M

 

T-3 Saturday

315 Showings

6434

+1070

44813

1.084

Oppenheimer T-3

28.47M

 

T-4 Sunday

301 Showings

3314

+614

42784

0.910

Oppenheimer T-4

21.10M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-0 Thursday

155 Showings

5083

+1256

23009

0.777

Oppenheimer T-0

8.16M

 

T-1 Friday

304 Showings

7700

+1373

43177

0.808

Oppenheimer T-1

18.19M

 

T-2 Saturday

320 Showings

7862

+1428

45194

1.013

Oppenheimer T-2

26.58M

 

T-3 Sunday

303 Showings

4069

+755

42998

0.795

Oppenheimer T-3

18.44M

[kayumanggi]

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/28/2024 at 3:18 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-1 Thursday

351 Showings

16343

+1500

42086

ATP:

17.40

0.635	Barbie T-1	14.17M
1.608	Oppenheimer T-1	16.88M

0.950	Guardians T-1	16.62M
1.555	Avatar T-1	26.44M
0.745	Thor L&T T-1	21.60M
0.585	Doctor Strange 2 T-1	21.05M
0.906	Batman T-1*	15.94M
2.857	Dune Part 1 T-1	14.57M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-2 Friday

559 Showings

20920

+2687

66343

ATP:

16.95

0.647	Barbie T-2	31.20M
1.418	Oppenheimer T-2	31.92M

1.169	Guardians T-2	35.77M
1.479	Avatar T-2	53.52M
1.026	Thor L&T T-2	41.60M
0.718	Doctor Strange 2 T-2	39.31M
0.957	Batman T-2	33.58M
2.532	Dune Part 1 T-2	31.39M

 

T-3 Saturday

577 Showings

24496

+3331

69064

ATP:

16.53

0.747	Barbie T-3	35.71M
1.453	Oppenheimer T-3	38.56M

1.244	Guardians T-3	48.35M
1.632	Avatar T-3	72.35M
1.288	Thor L&T T-3	54.23M
0.809	Doctor Strange 2 T-3	46.76M
1.066	Batman T-3	46.12M
3.075	Dune Part 1 T-3	42.18M

 

T-4 Sunday

520 Showings

16784

+2069

62863

ATP:

16.61

0.659	Barbie T-4	28.80M
1.348	Oppenheimer T-4	31.27M

1.455	Guardians T-4	45.72M
1.743	Avatar T-4	63.72M
1.450	Thor L&T T-4	47.13M
0.944	Doctor Strange 2 T-4	36.70M
1.386	Batman T-4	47.31M
3.096	Dune Part 1 T-4	30.27M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-0 Thursday

351 Showings

18735

+2392

42088

ATP:

17.20

0.663	Barbie T-0	14.79M
1.639	Oppenheimer T-0	17.21M

0.922	Guardians T-0	16.14M
1.448	Avatar T-0	24.62M
0.699	Thor L&T T-0	20.26M
0.579	Doctor Strange 2 T-0	20.83M
0.878	Batman T-0*	15.45M
2.441	Dune Part 1 T-0	12.45M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-1 Friday

559 Showings

23481

+2561

66344

ATP:

16.78

0.663	Barbie T-1	31.93M
1.371	Oppenheimer T-1	30.87M

1.147	Guardians T-1	35.10M
1.426	Avatar T-1	51.63M
0.944	Thor L&T T-1	38.27M
0.720	Doctor Strange 2 T-1	39.43M
0.931	Batman T-1	32.67M
2.413	Dune Part 1 T-1	29.92M

 

T-2 Saturday

577 Showings

27657

+3161

69068

ATP:

16.38

0.765	Barbie T-2	36.56M
1.444	Oppenheimer T-2	38.33M

1.238	Guardians T-2	48.13M
1.611	Avatar T-2	71.42M
1.220	Thor L&T T-2	51.38M
0.823	Doctor Strange 2 T-2	47.58M
1.030	Batman T-2	44.57M
2.954	Dune Part 1 T-2	40.52M

 

T-3 Sunday

520 Showings

18935

+2151

62865

ATP:

16.48

0.666	Barbie T-3	29.12M
1.303	Oppenheimer T-3	30.23M

1.426	Guardians T-3	44.81M
1.740	Avatar T-3	63.63M
1.401	Thor L&T T-3	45.53M
0.925	Doctor Strange 2 T-3	35.97M
1.274	Batman T-3	43.48M
3.043	Dune Part 1 T-3	29.76M

[iEnri]

Our only comp with more than one day is South Korea, and it decreased only 22%. Decent first day, but very good hold. So, dont worry Dune fans, this movie will leg out amazingly well if SK is any indicator. 

[keysersoze123]

its at 142564/703152 2608799.38 at 2PM PST. Let us see how walkups go rest of the day. Probably finish around ~3m. even with MTC1 over index it should hit high 9s thursday previews. 

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Voldemort said on his Twitter that it’s already greenlit, so maybe it’s time to just accept the numbers without being fearful about them.

Who's Voldemort? Sequels are often announced before movie's commercial results and those results can change initial plans. As long as it does over 600 mln worldwide it should be safe.

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-0 Thursday

351 Showings

18735

+257

42088

ATP:

17.20

0.663	Barbie T-0	14.79M
1.639	Oppenheimer T-0	17.21M

0.922	Guardians T-0	16.14M
1.448	Avatar T-0	24.62M
0.699	Thor L&T T-0	20.26M
0.579	Doctor Strange 2 T-0	20.83M
0.878	Batman T-0*	15.45M
2.441	Dune Part 1 T-0	12.45M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-1 Friday

559 Showings

23481

+2561

66344

ATP:

16.78

0.663	Barbie T-1	31.93M
1.371	Oppenheimer T-1	30.87M

1.147	Guardians T-1	35.10M
1.426	Avatar T-1	51.63M
0.944	Thor L&T T-1	38.27M
0.720	Doctor Strange 2 T-1	39.43M
0.931	Batman T-1	32.67M
2.413	Dune Part 1 T-1	29.92M

 

T-2 Saturday

577 Showings

27657

+3161

69068

ATP:

16.38

0.765	Barbie T-2	36.56M
1.444	Oppenheimer T-2	38.33M

1.238	Guardians T-2	48.13M
1.611	Avatar T-2	71.42M
1.220	Thor L&T T-2	51.38M
0.823	Doctor Strange 2 T-2	47.58M
1.030	Batman T-2	44.57M
2.954	Dune Part 1 T-2	40.52M

 

T-3 Sunday

520 Showings

18935

+2151

62865

ATP:

16.48

0.666	Barbie T-3	29.12M
1.303	Oppenheimer T-3	30.23M

1.426	Guardians T-3	44.81M
1.740	Avatar T-3	63.63M
1.401	Thor L&T T-3	45.53M
0.925	Doctor Strange 2 T-3	35.97M
1.274	Batman T-3	43.48M
3.043	Dune Part 1 T-3	29.76M

Thursday sales number for T-0 seem too low 🙂 Check the math. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1297	1353	95.86%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

882

2886

30.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

794

2509

31.65%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4588	515	24695	18.58%	13	148

 

1.117	Oppenheimer T-1	11.73M
0.891	Guardians T-1	15.59M
0.803	Ant-Man 3 T-1	14.06M
0.776	Avatar 2 T-1	13.20M
0.507	Thor L&T T-1	14.69M
0.358	Doctor Strange 2 T-1	12.89M
0.840	Batman T-1*	18.14M
2.002	Dune Part 1 T-1	10.21M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1297	1353	95.86%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1006

2884

34.88%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

881

2507

35.14%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5568	980	25782	21.60%	13	156

 

0.967	Oppenheimer T-0	10.15M
0.817	Guardians T-0	14.29M
0.775	Ant-Man 3 T-0	13.56M
0.734	Avatar 2 T-0	12.48M
0.455	Thor L&T T-0	13.20M
0.362	Doctor Strange 2 T-0	13.05M
0.792	Batman T-0*	17.11M
1.695	Dune Part 1 T-0	8.64M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

 

Most Denver comps dropped quite a bit over the last day, most importantly the Oppenheimer, Avatar 2, and Dune Part 1 had significant drops. Definitely not trending in the right direction. Drafthouse still has strong numbers, but most comps there dropped as well. Emagine Thursday stayed steady against Oppenheimer, but that's not saying much considering the comp is 8.16M. I'm just gonna ignore Drafthouse for the most part. I'm also gonna ignore most Denver comps and just focus on Oppenheimer, Dune Part 1, and Avatar 2. Only considering other comps for pace purposes. I'll go with 9.3M for Thursday previews only, 11.3M including Sunday EA.

[Inceptionzq]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thursday sales number for T-0 seem too low 🙂 Check the math. 

Oops, thanks. I usually do multiple Drafthouse runs on preview day because of timezone differences, so that's what that was from.

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Chosen 4: 7-8	T-0	Jax	5	14	136	136	1,615	8.42%
		Phx	5	14	137	137	1,256	10.91%
		Ral	8	19	112	112	2,057	5.44%
	Total		18	47	385	385	4,928	7.81%
Dune: Part Two	T-0	Jax	6	91	217	1,345	13,367	10.06%
		Phx	7	75	288	1,339	11,774	11.37%
		Ral	8	80	246	1,310	9,906	13.22%
	Total		21	246	751	3,994	35,047	11.40%

 

Dune 2 T-0 comps

 - Dune - 1.81x (9.21m) +25.5%

 - Top Gun 2 - .592x (8.7m) +19.4%

 - Batman - .441x (7.75m) +23.4%

 - Jurassic World 3 - .539x (9.54m) +22.6%

 - Eternals - .963x (9.15m) +21.3%

 - Black Widow - .69x (9.1m) +23.9%

 - Flash - 1.11x (10.74m) +30%

 - Avatar 2 - .547x (9.29m) +18.36%

 - Oppenheimer - .94x (9.68m) +24.3%

 

The +23.1% was only slightly behind expected.  3-day pace was closest to JW3 of my comps.  Well below Dune 1 but ahead of Oppy, Batman and Top Gun.  Forecast with one update to go is $9.27m.

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Dune: Part Two	1-Hr	Jax	6	91	318	1,663	13,367	12.44%
		Phx	7	75	224	1,563	11,774	13.28%
		Ral	8	80	215	1,525	9,906	15.39%
	Total		21	246	757	4,751	35,047	13.56%

 

T-1 hr comps

 - Dune - 1.73x (8.81m) +24.3%

 - Top Gun 2 - .588x (8.65m) +19.6%

 - Jurassic World 3 - .484x (8.57m) +32.5%

 - Eternals - .884x (8.4m) +29.6%

 - Black Widow - .645x (8.52m) +27.13%

 - Flash - .977x (9.47m) +34.9%

 - Avatar 2 - .533x (9.06m) +22.1%

 - Oppenheimer - .907x (9.34m) +23.2%

All adventure movies - 9.92m

All PG-13 movies - 9.92m

All 3pm previews - 10.16m

All movies - 10.27m

 

Final day growth of only 19% is a little concerning.  Growth slope expanded out for the comps has it falling all the way to 8.65m based on this trend, but that doesn't take into account any ATP differences.  As it is, I wouldn't be surprised if this finishes closer to 9m than 9.5m.

 

Final projection: 9.3m

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

Ghostbusters is now on sale. Here in AMC NY theaters it started surprisingly  well, an even better first 6 hours hours than One Love. However One Love final 5 days of previews pre sales performed insanely well even in NY even better than Dune.

 

One Love is a pretty bad comp for something like GBFE due to the fan rush/sequel/franchise angle.  Now GBFE won't be as frontloaded as many long running franchises as it still has more of a GA/family skew.  But there'll definitely be more upfront interest for GBFE than something like One Love, even with the auteur appeal for the latter.

 

Still, looking around town and it's doing... decent.  Only at the half-way mark in the day and GBFE is quite likely to pass the first day sales of GBA.  Of course, it should pass the first day of GBA (or rather, it'd be a pretty decent sized red flag if it didn't) and only so many comparisons can be made, if only for a slightly longer pre-sale period and starting pre-sales against an attention grabbing opener (which, in my opinion, can cut both ways).

 

But looks to be more or less doing as I expected.  Have a better sense when I do a check late tonight.  Not planning on making  updates in-thread for it (might make a post tonight depending on how decent the sales actually wind up being), but likely to monitor it on my home sheet in case it pulls a Sonic 2 and surprises after all.